| | | 07月31日券商推荐家数排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 收盘价(元) | 评级券商数量 | 行业 | | 000921 | 海信家电 | 25.69 | ব | 白色家电 | | 300416 | 苏试试验 | 16.35 | 3 | 专业服务 | | 601933 | 永辉超市 | 4.73 | 2 | 一般零售 | | 600900 | 长江电力 | 27.84 | 2 | 电力 | | 603259 | 药明康德 | 96.27 | 2 | 医疗服务 | | 688696 | 极米科技 | 113.86 | 2 | 聖色家电 | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 264.62 | 2 | 电池 | | | | 日期：07月31日，南财投研通×南财快讯制图 | | | 首次覆盖方面，7月31日券商共给出了1次首次覆盖，其中湖南海利获得长城证券给予"买入"评级。 南财投研通数据显示，7月31日，券商给予上市公司目标价共13次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前 的公司有宁德时代、苏试试验、永辉超市，目标价涨幅分 ...

天风证券发布研究报告称，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧重于成本调查和价 格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。经过炒预期阶段的演绎后，反内卷行情后面还是会演化为定价哪些行 业周期出清、业绩能企稳并连续验证。行情会从"预期反内卷"(博弈困境反转)转移至"实质反内卷"(定价 实际改善)。农化、风电设备或属于"实质反内卷"的例子。 两个格局或改善的行业，一是风电设备，二是农化制品： 3)库存与营收方面：2025Q1至今，行业营收(TTM)同比维持正增，库存去化。 从农化(农药&化肥)行业的格局状态可以看出： 1)上一段周期高点的背景是21年农化市场主动累库，价格高位，这段区间毛利状况提升，农药公司营收 大增。 从风电设备格局状态可以看出： 1)经营性现金流与资本开支方面：2023-2024年，行业CAPEX(TTM)同比下降的公司占比进一步上升， 现金流出现好转，行业中经营性现金流(TTM)小于0的公司占比下降，对应出清幅度基本到位。2025Q1 以来，行业资本开支有再度上升趋势，CAPEX(TTM)同比下降的公司占比减小，出清的右侧已经出 现。 2)毛利率与资本开支总量方面：2022-2023年，行业 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift from "expected anti-involution" to "actual anti-involution," focusing on cost investigation and price monitoring to address low-price disorderly competition in industries [1] - The anti-involution trend is expected to evolve into a phase where pricing improvements in certain industries can be verified, particularly in agricultural chemicals and wind power equipment [1] Industry Analysis Wind Power Equipment - The proportion of companies with negative operating cash flow (TTM) decreased, indicating a recovery in cash flow, while the proportion of companies with declining CAPEX (TTM) increased from 2023 to 2024, suggesting that the industry is nearing a clearing phase [2] - From 2023 to Q1 2025, the profitability of the industry improved, with a decrease in the proportion of companies experiencing a decline in gross margin (TTM), indicating that the clearing process is largely complete [2] - Revenue (TTM) has maintained positive growth since Q1 2025, alongside inventory reduction, further supporting the notion of a clearing phase [2] Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemicals market saw a significant inventory accumulation in 2021, leading to increased revenue for pesticide companies during that period [3] - From the second half of 2022 to 2023, the industry faced continuous inventory accumulation, with a supply-demand turning point occurring post-2022, leading to a phase of inventory clearance expected to last until Q3 2024 [3] - The cyclical reversal logic observed in financial reports is distinct from the short-term speculative trading seen in the anti-involution phase, indicating a more stable fundamental outlook for agricultural chemicals [3] Methodological Insights - The report categorizes cyclical stocks into two types: volume-driven cyclical stocks (like wind power equipment) and price-driven cyclical stocks (like agricultural chemicals), highlighting the different indicators that should be monitored for each type [30] - For volume-driven cyclical stocks, the focus should be on CAPEX and capacity clearing, while for price-driven cyclical stocks, inventory clearance influences short-term trends, and capacity clearing along with demand side factors dictate long-term trends [30][33] Profit Expectations & Valuation - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit growth expectations and valuation metrics across various sectors, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors like basic chemicals and steel showing significant volatility in profit growth [34][38] - The report highlights the current PE ratios and historical comparisons, suggesting that certain sectors may offer attractive valuation opportunities based on their historical performance [36][38]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 2.43% on July 31, with Hubei Yihua leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77, down 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Yabao Chemical (300261) saw a significant increase of 12.09%, closing at 8.81 with a trading volume of 1.4172 million shares and a turnover of 1.216 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Lier Chemical (002258) with a slight increase of 0.87% and Hongtaiyang (000525) with a 0.70% increase [1] - Conversely, Hubei Zhihua (000422) and Xingfa Group (600141) faced declines of 4.36% and 4.22% respectively, with trading volumes of 389,400 shares and 265,300 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 577 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 526 million yuan [2] - The data indicates that retail investors were more active in the market compared to institutional investors on that day [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Yabao Chemical had a net inflow of 15 million yuan from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 87.29 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Lier Chemical recorded a net inflow of 15.97 million yuan from institutional investors, with a minor net inflow of 1.82 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Chuanheng Co. (002895) and Hongtaiyang (000525) also showed varied capital flows, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices weakened, with the petrochemical sector experiencing a correction after a recent surge, as the petrochemical ETF (159731) fluctuated at low levels, dropping approximately 2.5% during the session [1] - The current "anti-involution" trading phase is entering a technical correction, transitioning from emotion-driven to fundamental pricing, with future focus shifting to the realization of industrial policies, sustainability of spot price transmission, and substantial changes in supply-demand structure [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with its top three sectors being refining and trading (28.9%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemicals (19.1%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1]

证券之星消息，7月30日农化制品板块较上一交易日上涨0.22%，利民股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3615.72，上涨0.17%。深证成指报收于11203.03，下跌0.77%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002734 | 利民股份 | 20.05 | 4.81% | 67.72万 | | 13.53亿 | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | 24.88 | 2.98% | 38.81万 | | 9.75亿 | | 600096 | 云天化 | 25.20 | 2.82% | 37.80万 | | 9.53亿 | | 002250 | 联化科技 | 10.64 | 1.53% | 182.46万 | | 19.68亿 | | 002258 | 利尔化学 | 12.67 | 1.44% | 29.84万 | | 3.83亿 | | 003042 | 中农联合 | 17.76 | 1.20% | 5.23万 | | 9294.41万 ...

Group 1 - The three major stock indices opened lower on July 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.23%, and the ChiNext down 0.45% [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) opened high and rose over 0.8%, with leading stocks including Hualu Hengsheng, Yuntianhua, and Wanhua Chemical [1] - According to Industrial Securities, since May, the intensity of industry rotation has continued to converge, with the "technology growth industry trend" and "undervalued cyclical recovery" becoming the two main lines of market consensus [1] Group 2 - The mid-year report indicates clear signs of prosperity, with high growth industries mainly concentrated in AI and resource products [1] - Margin financing has seen over 10 billion yuan inflow for five consecutive weeks, primarily into technology growth sectors, actively participating in the cyclical market [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three industries being refining and trading (28.9%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemicals (19.1%), expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

南财投研通数据显示，7月29日，券商给予上市公司目标价共19次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有科沃斯、英科医疗、瑞纳智能，目标价涨幅分别为46.04%、39.79%、38.85%，分别属 于小家电、医疗器械、通用设备行业。 | | | | 07月29日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 管理目標 (元) | 目标涨幅 (%) | | 603486 | 科沃斯 | 中信证券 | ポソ | 112.00 | 46.04 | | 300677 | 英科医疗 | 中信证券 | ポゾ | 45.00 | 39.79 | | 301129 | 瑞纳智能 | 国泰海通业芬 | 增持 | 35.63 | 38.85 | | 300454 | 深信服 | 中国国际金融 | 跑赢行业 | 140.00 | 36.80 | | 600483 | 福能股份 | 国投证券 | 买入 | 12.67 | 33.79 | | 002225 | 濮耐股份 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 9.00 | 33. ...

Core Insights - On July 29, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for companies such as Ecovacs, Yingke Medical, and Ruina Intelligent, showing target price increases of 46.04%, 39.79%, and 38.85% respectively, across the small appliances, medical devices, and general equipment sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Ecovacs (603486) received a target price of 112.00 with a target increase of 46.04% from CITIC Securities [2]. - Yingke Medical (300677) has a target price of 45.00, reflecting a 39.79% increase, also from CITIC Securities [2]. - Ruina Intelligent (301129) was assigned a target price of 35.63, indicating a 38.85% increase from Guotai Junan Securities [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 32 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on July 29, with Dongpeng Beverage receiving 5 recommendations, Hai Da Group 4, and Western Mining 3 [4]. - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 286.72 and was recommended by 5 firms in the beverage and dairy industry [5]. - Hai Da Group (002311) closed at 54.84 with 4 recommendations in the same sector [5]. Group 3: First Coverage - On July 29, 2023, 3 companies received their first coverage from brokerages, including Ruina Intelligent with an "Increase" rating from Guotai Junan Securities, Yayi International with a "Buy" rating from Shanghai Securities, and Dongpeng Beverage with a "Buy" rating from Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) [6][7]. - Ruina Intelligent (301129) was rated "Increase" in the general equipment sector [7]. - Yayi International (000893) received a "Buy" rating in the agricultural chemical products sector [7].

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.23% on July 29, with Hai Li Er leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3609.71, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11289.41, up 0.64% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Yabao Chemical (300261) with a closing price of 8.12, up 7.12% and a trading volume of 976,500 shares, totaling 776 million yuan [1] - Bai Ao Chemical (603360) closed at 20.28, up 4.11% with a trading volume of 239,600 shares, totaling 476 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Hai Li Er (603639) saw a significant decline, closing at 14.80, down 6.03% with a trading volume of 212,400 shares, totaling 314 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a net outflow of 577 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 518 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks showed: - Yabao Chemical had a net inflow of 11.56 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors of 73.06 million yuan [3] - Hai Li Er had a net inflow of 28.38 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 45.61 million yuan from retail investors [3]