央视网消息（焦点访谈）：今年以来，外部环境复杂变化，单边主义、保护主义抬头，严重冲击国际经贸秩序。大家都很关心，我们的外贸扛不扛得住？中 国经济稳步增长、向新向好的势头会不会受影响？近日，国家统计局等部门发布了5月份和今年前5个月的一些宏观经济数据，我们从这些数据中去寻找答 案。 今年以来，外部环境发生急剧变化，让外贸成为人们关注的焦点。数据显示，5月份，我国货物进出口总额同比增长2.7%，其中出口增长6.3%。 对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院院长屠新泉："最近这几个月的外贸政策环境变动非常大，所以大家非常关心5月份外贸数据出台。从这个结果来看，应 该说好于大家的普遍预期，尤其是出口能增长6.3%，这是个相当不错的成绩。一方面还是会有惯性，5月份表现出来的出口数据可能很多是以前下的订单。 另外，确实出口增长反映了制造业的竞争力确实非常强，韧性非常强。" 面对巨大的不确定性，中国一直在拓展更广阔的全球市场。虽然对美国进出口下滑，但对我们的主要贸易伙伴东盟和欧盟，包括共建"一带一路"国家进出口 都持续增长。5月份，我国对东盟、欧盟出口分别增长16.9%、13.7%，对非洲出口增长达到了35.3%。 屠新泉："在 ...

Group 1: Consumer Market Growth - The national retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [1] - Retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 37,316 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [1] - The restaurant market generated revenue of 4,578 billion yuan in May, growing by 5.9% compared to the previous four months [1] Group 2: Holiday Economy - The increase in holidays is becoming a significant driver for consumption, with the number of statutory holidays in May 2025 being 12 days, up from 10 days in 2024 [1] - The chief economist of Yuekai Securities suggests that increasing leisure time for residents can help rebalance supply and demand [1] Group 3: E-commerce Performance - JD reported a 100% year-on-year increase in the number of users placing orders during the "618" shopping festival, with total orders exceeding 22 billion [3] - Tmall also experienced double-digit growth in purchasing users during "618," with 88VIP membership surpassing 50 million [4] Group 4: Retail Expansion - Zhou Dasheng announced the addition of 7 self-operated stores in May 2025, with total investments ranging from 90 million to 650 million yuan for each store [5] Group 5: Entertainment Industry - The total box office for the summer season (June to August) surpassed 1 billion yuan by June 19, 2025, with top films including "Mission: Impossible 8" and "Doraemon: Nobita's Painting Adventure" [6] Group 6: Second-hand Market Dynamics - Following a significant restock of Labubu products, the second-hand market prices for these items have dropped sharply, with prices falling from 1,100-1,500 yuan to 600-900 yuan [7]

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The domestic infant formula market experienced a 2.3% year-on-year sales growth in Q1 2025, reversing a 0.9% contraction over the past 12 months [1] - The increase in birth rates, driven by the "Year of the Dragon" baby boom and post-pandemic recovery, led to a slight rise in newborns to 9.54 million in 2024, ending a seven-year decline [1] - However, marriage registrations dropped over 20% in 2024, indicating a potential future decline in newborn numbers and a shift in market focus from newborns to older children [2] Group 2: Sales Channel Changes - Online sales channels are gaining traction, with Tmall and JD.com reporting sales growth of 13.7% and 12.6% respectively in Q1 2025 [2] - High-end infant formula products are becoming mainstream, with the ultra-high-end segment growing by 13.3% year-on-year from January to April 2024 [3] Group 3: Company Performance - FrieslandCampina's core infant formula brand, Friso, maintained double-digit growth in the Chinese market in 2024, while Feihe's ultra-high-end product, Star Flying, saw sales increase by over 60% to 6.7 billion yuan [4] - Pricing control has become a common strategy among high-end infant formula brands, allowing them to maintain a degree of pricing power in the e-commerce sector [5][6]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with inbound tourism showing particularly robust growth, as evidenced by flight execution and travel orders. In 2024, domestic travel has rebounded to 56.1% of historical trends, while inbound tourism has reached 81.9% of historical trends, with travel exports recovering to 138% of 2019 levels [2][10][83] - From the perspective of visitor demographics, tourists from Southeast Asia are showing significant recovery in inbound tourism, while recovery from regions like North America is slower. In 2024, the proportion of visitors to Shanghai from Southeast Asia is 22.5%, up 6.8 percentage points from 2023, while the proportion from North America has decreased by 2 percentage points [2][17][83] - The recovery pace of China's inbound tourism market is accelerating after 2024, indicating that the tourism market's recovery is not solely dependent on scale expansion. By April 2025, inbound tourist numbers in Shanghai reached 115.3% of the 2019 average, surpassing countries like Thailand and Singapore [3][23][83] Group 2 - The increase in inbound tourism is driven by the facilitation of visa policies and cultural exports, which effectively stimulate inbound demand. Since 2024, the expansion of visa-free policies has significantly boosted inbound tourism, with 20.12 million foreign visitors entering through visa exemptions, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [4][26][84] - Historical examples show that optimizing visa policies can effectively release inbound tourism demand. For instance, Japan's gradual relaxation of visa policies from 2013 led to a substantial increase in inbound visitors, from 8.358 million in 2012 to 31.882 million in 2019 [4][34][84] Group 3 - The potential for growth in inbound tourism is significant, as the current export of travel and entertainment services as a percentage of GDP is notably lower than that of other countries, primarily due to the low openness of the service sector. In 2024, travel exports are projected to account for only 0.1% of GDP, compared to a global average of 1.6% [6][50][61] - The Chinese government is increasing its focus on the opening of the service sector, which is expected to release substantial demand for inbound tourism. Policies aimed at enhancing service sector openness have been introduced, including a comprehensive pilot program to accelerate the opening of the service industry [7][66][61]

Key Points - The article emphasizes a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on defensive sectors such as banks due to ongoing tariff negotiations and rising economic downward pressure [2][4] - It suggests that while small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, the overall market volatility is increasing, indicating potential risks if a turning point occurs [2][4] - The report highlights a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][7] Market Overview - The market structure shows a stable concentration in the top 100 stocks, while the transaction share of the top five industries has slightly decreased [6][7] - Market activity has decreased, with a notable drop in the turnover rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, reaching its lowest level in nearly a year [6][7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the strength of trends in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors has significantly increased, while energy and black metal sectors continue their trend [18][20] - The basis differential momentum for black and precious metals has rapidly increased, whereas it has decreased for energy and non-ferrous sectors [18][20] Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the latter at historically low levels [23] - The skewness of the CSI 1000 put options has decreased, indicating a reduction in market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [23] Convertible Bond Market Overview - The convertible bond market remains stable in terms of valuation, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan and the pure debt premium rate showing steady trends [26] - The market turnover has improved, surpassing historical median levels, while credit spreads remain consistent with previous values [26]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In May, Hubei's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to April. Urban areas saw a rise of 0.3%, while rural areas experienced a decline of 0.2% [1] - The main driver for the CPI increase was the 0.6% rise in service prices, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment, which rose by 1.4%. The demand for tourism and entertainment during the "May Day" holiday contributed significantly to this increase [2] - Food prices remained stable year-on-year, with fresh fruit and aquatic products rising by 6.9% and 6.8%, respectively. However, the decline in fresh vegetable prices offset some of the upward pressure [2] Group 2: Industrial Producer Price Trends - In May, Hubei's industrial producer prices decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. The average decline for the first five months was 2.6% compared to the same period last year [3] - The prices of industrial materials fell by 3.0%, with raw material prices dropping by 5.2% and processing industry prices decreasing by 2.6%. Only general daily necessities saw a slight increase of 2.8% [3][4] - The decline in costs for raw materials, such as chemical raw materials (down 13.2%) and black metal materials (down 7.4%), has alleviated pressure on enterprise production costs [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The holiday economy has significantly boosted service consumption, indicating a need for further expansion of domestic demand and promotion of consumption upgrades [4] - The increase in service prices is expected to continue with the end of high school entrance exams and the upcoming summer travel demand, supported by policies aimed at stimulating consumption [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [5][9]. Core Insights - British American Tobacco (BAT) reported H1 2025 revenue slightly exceeding guidance, with expectations for accelerated growth in H2 driven by new products [2][18]. - Glo Hilo officially launched in Japan on June 9, 2025, with a focus on consumer feedback in a mature heat-not-burn (HNB) market [2][20]. - Bricks and mortar toy company Blokko has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a strategy focusing on global expansion and diverse product offerings [3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a recovery in the home furnishing sector due to government subsidies, recommending companies like Oppein Home and Sophia for their strategic advancements [15][16]. - In the paper and packaging sector, the report suggests focusing on Sun Paper for growth driven by new capacity and Yutong Technology for its stable fundamentals and high dividends [15][16]. 2. Recent Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - BAT's H1 revenue slightly exceeded guidance, with H2 expected to accelerate due to new product launches [2][18]. - Glo Hilo's launch in Japan is anticipated to benefit from positive consumer feedback, with Smoker as a key supplier [2][20]. - Blokko's global strategy is progressing, with a focus on diverse IP products and community engagement through BFC events [3][35]. 3. Market Review - The light industry sector saw a 2.18% increase last week, outperforming the broader market [37]. - The furniture retail sector reported a 26.9% year-on-year increase in April, while building materials saw a decline of 2.5% [42][49]. 4. Key Data Tracking - In April, furniture retail sales reached 15.3 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.2% [42]. - The paper sector experienced mixed price movements, with domestic prices for certain grades remaining stable while others saw slight fluctuations [49][58]. - The real estate market showed a 3.3% decline in transaction volume for new homes in major cities [64][69]. 5. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - Morning Glory announced a change in financial leadership and plans for share buybacks [83]. - The report notes ongoing developments in the entertainment sector, with a focus on companies like Morning Glory for their growth in new business areas [16].

Market Overview - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, impacting market sentiment[9] - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity, indicating a supportive stance for the bond market[10] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach new lows, with a recommended entry point above 1.8% and a potential extreme at 1.9%[3] - After a 10 basis point rate cut, the yield is projected to be around 1.7%, presenting a favorable configuration for investors[3] Stock Market Strategy - Defensive sectors like banks are recommended due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures, with limited downside potential for large-cap stocks[3] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, particularly in small-cap stocks, necessitating a cautious approach to investment[3] Economic Indicators - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has risen to 1,208.854 billion yuan, an increase of 114.95 billion yuan from the previous week[22] - The industry rotation speed has increased, with heightened investor interest in technology and new consumption sectors[23] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, ineffective policy measures, escalating tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in overseas economic conditions[4][26]

Group 1: Consumer Rights Issues - The main areas of consumer rights issues in Jiangsu Province during the Dragon Boat Festival include tourism, entertainment, transportation, and dining [1][3] - A total of 125,000 pieces of relevant consumer rights information were analyzed, with 11,000 being rights protection-related, accounting for 8.8% [1] Group 2: Tourism Experience - There is a significant decline in tourism experience despite an increase in market flow, with 3,253 pieces of consumer rights information related to tourism [3] - A specific incident highlighted involved a tourist being charged 300 yuan for a service that was initially quoted at 100 yuan, indicating issues with transparency in pricing [3] Group 3: Entertainment and Sports Events - Consumer complaints regarding entertainment activities totaled 4,449, with a focus on the difficulty in obtaining tickets for the "Su Super" football matches [4] - Ticket prices have surged, with original prices of 10 yuan being resold for 200-300 yuan, and some tickets reaching up to 500 yuan on secondary markets [4] Group 4: Seasonal Food Quality and Pricing - There were 3,787 pieces of consumer rights information related to seasonal food, particularly concerning zongzi (rice dumplings), with complaints about inflated prices and quality discrepancies [5] - Issues included false advertising and discrepancies between advertised and actual product weights, with some consumers receiving substandard products [5] Group 5: Ride-Hailing Price Controversies - There were 118 pieces of consumer rights information related to ride-hailing services, with complaints about unreasonable price increases during the holiday [6] - Consumers reported significant fare hikes, with some experiencing price increases from 9 yuan to 16 yuan, indicating a trend of price gouging during peak times [6]

Group 1: Market Trends - The infant formula market is moving towards ultra-premium products, with a 2.3% year-on-year growth in total channels from January to April 2025, while offline sales declined by 1.4% and online sales increased by 12.3% [1] - The ultra-premium+ segment grew by 13.3% year-on-year, while the ultra-premium segment declined by 4.8%, high-end by 14.6%, and mid-high-end by 2% [1] - The market share of ultra-premium+ reached 33.2%, and ultra-premium at 31.2%, indicating a significant shift towards higher-end products [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Feihe achieved a revenue of 20.75 billion yuan in 2024, a 6% increase year-on-year, with infant formula revenue at 19.06 billion yuan, up 6.6% [2] - The sales of Feihe's ultra-premium product, Star Flying Fan Zhuo Rui, increased by over 60% year-on-year, reaching 6.7 billion yuan, while the classic Star Flying Fan series saw a decline [2] - Since 2017, Feihe has focused on ultra-premium products, increasing their share in infant formula from 22% in 2016 to 75% in 2024 [2] Group 3: Foreign Brands Performance - Danone reported significant market share growth in China, particularly with its ultra-premium Aptamil series [3] - FrieslandCampina's core infant formula brand, Friso, maintained double-digit growth in the Chinese market in 2024 [3] - Nestlé's infant formula business in China achieved high single-digit growth, with a recovery in the previously declining Wyeth Illuma brand [3] Group 4: Strategic Insights - The decline in newborn numbers has made ultra-premium positioning the most important strategy for infant formula giants [4]