文/张智 从企业规模来看，大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业 支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水 平有所回落。 一个亮点是，高技术制造业持续领跑。高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水 平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行 业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食 品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对 近期行业发展信心较强。 编辑：徐芸茜 1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，但传统淡季下企业生产仍继 续扩张。 具体来看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有 所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yongmaotai announced an expected increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 60 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 22.49 million to 32.49 million yuan, which corresponds to a growth rate of approximately 59.96% to 86.62% [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 60 million and 70 million yuan [1] - This represents an increase of approximately 22.49 million to 32.49 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The year-on-year growth rate is expected to be between 59.96% and 86.62% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fulong Technology (603327.SH) announced a plan to issue shares to specific investors, raising up to 300 million yuan for a green low-carbon aluminum alloy new materials project in Chongzhou [1][2]. Group 1: Share Issuance Details - The total investment for the Chongzhou project is 563.85 million yuan, with the company planning to use the entire raised amount for this project [2]. - The shares will be issued as domestic listed RMB ordinary shares (A-shares) with a par value of 1.00 yuan per share [2]. - The issuance will follow a simplified procedure for specific investors, with a maximum of 35 investors eligible, including various institutional investors [2][3]. Group 2: Pricing and Regulations - The pricing benchmark for the shares will be the first day of the issuance period, with the price set at no less than 80% of the average trading price over the previous 20 trading days [3]. - The number of shares issued will be determined by dividing the total raised funds by the issuance price, not exceeding 30% of the company's total share capital prior to the issuance [3]. - The shares subscribed by specific investors will have a lock-up period of 6 months from the issuance completion date [3]. Group 3: Previous Fundraising Activities - Fulong Technology previously raised 640 million yuan through the issuance of convertible bonds, with a net amount of 631.63 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [4]. - The total amount raised by Fulong Technology from both the current and previous fundraising activities is 1.071 billion yuan [5].

1. Report industry investment ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core views of the report - For precious metals, the sentiment is approaching the extreme, with high - level and large - amplitude fluctuations in gold. Long - term holding is recommended, but short - term risks should be watched out for. Institutions are optimistic about the long - term structural bull market of gold, and the long - term logic of going long on precious metals remains unchanged [1][2][3] - Copper has reached a new historical high, but there is short - term volatility. Long - term holding is recommended, and attention should be paid to the range of Shanghai copper and London copper [1][4][7] - Zinc has reached a new high since 2022. Short - term speculative factors dominate, and long positions should be held and gradually cashed out at high prices. Medium - and long - term callbacks should be bought on dips [1][8][10] - Aluminum price has risen and then fallen. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of social inventory of aluminum ingots [1][11][14] - Nickel price has rebounded and then fallen. Profit - taking and waiting are recommended, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes [1][15][18] - Lithium carbonate has high - level fluctuations, and long positions should be held cautiously, paying attention to the regulatory risks [1][19][21] 3. Summaries according to relevant catalogs Gold and silver - **Market performance**: Gold and silver prices continue to rise, but with large fluctuations. London spot gold has experienced large - amplitude intraday fluctuations, and the gold ETF and silver ETF inventories have decreased significantly [2] - **Industry logic**: The Iranian issue is deteriorating, Trump is pressuring for interest rate cuts, the US dollar has fallen significantly, and mainstream institutions are optimistic about the long - term bull market of gold. Silver is affected by the safe - haven attribute of gold in the short term, and the long - term gold - silver ratio will return to the mean [3] - **Strategy recommendation**: The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1190, and for domestic silver is at 27000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term logic of going long remains unchanged. Short - term risks in the frenzy should be watched out for [3] Copper - **Market performance**: Copper prices have reached a new historical high, with large fluctuations in Shanghai copper. The trading volume and inventory of copper have changed [5] - **Industry logic**: The global copper mine shortage continues, the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low, the supply of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand for green copper is booming [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term long positions should be held, and stop - profit should be set. Do not blindly chase up or sell down. In the medium and long term, copper is still optimistic. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [105000, 115000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [13500, 14500] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market performance**: Zinc has reached a new high since 2022, with large fluctuations in Shanghai zinc. The trading volume and inventory of zinc have changed [8] - **Industry logic**: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand in emerging fields is expected to make up for part of the gap [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term long positions should be held and gradually cashed out at high prices. Do not blindly chase up, and watch out for the risk of a high - level decline. In the medium and long term, buy on dips during callbacks. The range for Shanghai zinc is [25800, 26800], and for London zinc is [3400, 3500] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market performance**: Aluminum price has risen and then fallen, and alumina has rebounded and then fallen [11][12] - **Industry logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Overseas supply is affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The downstream demand is divided. The supply of alumina is abundant [13] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended for Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of social inventory of aluminum ingots. The operating range of the main contract is [24000 - 26500] [14] Nickel - **Market performance**: Nickel price has rebounded and then fallen, and stainless steel has also rebounded and then fallen [15][16] - **Industry logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target, and the domestic pure nickel inventory has increased. The downstream stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: Profit - taking and waiting are recommended for nickel and stainless steel. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range of the main nickel contract is [135000 - 153000] [18] Lithium carbonate - **Market performance**: The main contract LC2605 has opened low and moved low, maintaining a low - level shock throughout the day, with a decline of more than 3% [19] - **Industry logic**: The domestic lithium salt plant's production and operating rate have both declined, and the supply is expected to be tight. The downstream may start stocking before the Spring Festival, and the total inventory has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Long positions should be held cautiously at high levels, and attention should be paid to regulatory risks. The range is [16100 - 174000] [21]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. The current global consumption of copper is strong, and although the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation in China may be faster than expected, the post - festival inventory depletion could also be rapid [1]. - For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. The domestic internal demand has short - term support, and the overall market is in a high - level oscillation with a slight decline [2]. - In the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about zinc's potential for price increase due to limited long - term capital expenditure and potential supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines. Attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and a high - level decline in Jinchuan premium. There is a short - term game between policies and fundamentals [12]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, mainly following the nickel price. The steel mill production is maintained at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight reduction from a high level [14]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15]. - Tin can be considered as a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. In the long - term, if there is a macroeconomic inflection point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of 2026 [16]. - Industrial silicon's price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom with seasonal marginal cost as the anchor in the long term, as the supply is shrinking and the short - term demand is approaching a balance [19]. - Lithium carbonate's short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January. If the market expectation cools down or the intermediate inventory reaches a low level, a resonance between the futures and spot markets may occur [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Categories Copper - From January 23 to 29, 2026, the spot import profit increased by 1893.13, and the three - month import profit increased by 397.55. The LME copper inventory increased by 2150, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1100. The copper price tested the 99,000 support level during the week and then rose sharply on the Friday night session [1]. Aluminum - During the same period, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots increased by 600, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2250. The aluminum锭基差 and downstream processing fees are still at a low level, and the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. Zinc - The spot premium decreased by 20, and the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 50. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates has tightened, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market is optimistic about zinc's price increase in the long - term [6][8]. Nickel - The pure nickel production decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The domestic inventory had a slight increase, and the LME inventory remained stable. There is a short - term game between the Indonesian policy and the fundamentals [11][12]. Stainless Steel - The prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged. The fundamentals are weak and mainly follow the nickel price [13][14]. Lead - The supply - side production is expected to increase by 1 - 1.5 tons in January. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory has started to accumulate for the second week. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,600 next week [15]. Tin - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The supply - side recovery in the first quarter is controversial, and the demand - side downstream restocking willingness varies. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated upward. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter [16]. Industrial Silicon - The monthly supply continued to shrink, and the short - term demand was close to a balance. The price is expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and at the cycle bottom in the long term [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The SMM electric carbon price decreased by 4000, and the SMM industrial carbon price also decreased by 4000. The short - term supply and demand are close to balance in January, and there may be a resonance between the futures and spot markets in the future [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Tin**: Short - term prices are volatile due to market sentiment, and caution is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, pay attention to the CL premium trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise gradually, but be aware of price volatility risks [3]. - **Zinc**: The price has support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply, and there is room for restocking as demand recovers. The short - term price downside is limited, and focus on changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Expect the price to fluctuate, and pay attention to the decline in industrial silicon production and the production reduction process of enterprises. The price range is expected to be between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Polysilicon**: In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. The price is under pressure and may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton and 45000 yuan/ton. Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the production reduction situation and downstream demand recovery [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The futures price is driven by sentiment, but the high inventory in the spot market suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line [9]. - **Aluminum**: In the long - term, the price is likely to be strong, but in the short - term, there is a risk of a high - level correction. Long - term investors can buy on dips [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Focus on the actual flow of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and downstream pre - holiday inventory preparation [11]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main reference range is 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In the short - term, it is expected to adjust with a strong - side fluctuation. The main reference range is 14200 - 15200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and steel mill dynamics [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price may decline and adjust. The main reference range is 155000 - 170000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and inventory changes [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.46% to 438600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open - discount decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.48% to 104185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.20% to 25290 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2443 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price increased by 165 yuan/ton [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the N - type silicon wafer price decreased [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 2.47% to 24860 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2081 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum widened [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.30% to 148000 yuan/ton, and the futures import loss was - 266 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils was basically stable, and the price difference between futures and spot decreased [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 2.33% to 168000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.06% [2]. - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and imports decreased by 4.02% [3]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both weakened slightly, and there was a slight inventory build - up [7]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and the import volume increased by 77.50% [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10%, and imports increased by 84.63% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel rough steel decreased by 26.72%, and imports increased by 29.32% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and the demand decreased by 2.50% [17]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Tin**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.79%, and social inventory increased by 4.94% [2]. - **Copper**: Global visible inventory has accumulated to a high level in recent years, with more than 50% of the inventory in the United States [3]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.35%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.57% [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.89% [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.45% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.11% [11]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 5.43%, and social inventory increased by 4.38% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.82%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 9.90% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% in December, and the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has returned to the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruptions, causing base metals to rise rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, with the return of the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns, and the breakdown of the US dollar index, base metals are rising rapidly. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [1]. - The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals are expected to show different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong; alumina prices are likely to fluctuate; aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term [1][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index has declined significantly, and copper prices are trending strongly. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On January 29, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 75 yuan/ton. The copper social inventory was 335,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The US Southern Copper Corporation expects its copper production to decline to 91,140 tons in 2026. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the recent weakening of the US dollar index has boosted the prices of commodities with strong monetary attributes. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the decline of copper concentrate spot TC continues. The 2026 copper mine long - term processing fee has reached a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Although the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [7]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts is competing with the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to fluctuate. On January 29, 2026, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2,610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has amplified the market fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic market maintains a strong inventory accumulation trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices. - **Outlook**: Volatile [7]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to trend strongly. On January 29, 2026, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24,822 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 578 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory was 253,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 142,705 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 124 tons. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the statement of the interest - rate cut meeting was neutral, and China's new infrastructure and new energy policies continued to be implemented, with the expectation of continued loose liquidity. On the supply side, the domestic operating capacity and operating rate are at a high level, and there is a risk of power shortage overseas, and the progress of new project commissioning needs further observation. On the demand side, the high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and the weekly inventory has accumulated. In general, in the short - term, the positive macro - expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to keep aluminum prices volatile and strong. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and demand will maintain a resilient growth, and the aluminum price center is expected to rise [8][9][10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The market follows the price of aluminum ingots and has increased. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short - term, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate has increased month - on - month, but the tax refund policy and tax burden transfer may still restrict supply in the medium - term. On the demand side, in the short - term, purchases are mainly for刚需 at high prices, and in the medium - term, the automobile trade - in policy will support the improvement of domestic demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the cost - support logic will be strengthened, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance, with prices expected to be volatile and strong [11]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rise in overseas natural gas prices has led to a volatile upward trend in zinc prices. On January 29, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 10 yuan/ton. As of January 29, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 107,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. - **Main Logic**: Although the recently announced US economic data is positive, the expectation of a weak US dollar still exists. On the supply side, the decline rate of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the short - term supply of zinc ore is still tight, and smelter profits have declined. In the short - term, the previously locked - price zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and the supply pressure is not significant. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has room to decline, so zinc prices may continue to be volatile at a high level. In the long - term, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline. - **Outlook**: In January, zinc ingot production has increased month - on - month, and downstream demand has entered the off - season. However, short - term domestic zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory is difficult to accumulate significantly. Considering the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to be volatile [12][13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory of lead has accumulated, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is positive, causing lead prices to rise in a volatile manner. On January 29, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,750 - 16,850 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic main market lead ingot social inventory was 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,418 tons (unchanged). - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead and the futures warehouse receipts have remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has remained stable. The previously shut - down secondary lead smelters in Anhui have resumed production, and the weekly lead ingot output has increased slightly. On the demand side, the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, and the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: As primary and secondary lead smelters resume production, lead ingot output remains high. The demand for lead ingots has weakened marginally, and the lead ingot import window has opened. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy is competing with the weak reality, causing the nickel price to rise in the market. On January 29, 2026, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 46,854 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,032 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 132 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output increased again month - on - month in December 2025, and the overall output of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia remained at a high level in December, so the overall supply pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. Although the stainless - steel production schedule has increased month - on - month due to profit repair, the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. In terms of policy, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for next year's nickel cost and balance. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply - demand will remain loose in January, and the high LME inventory will suppress prices. However, due to the potential policy changes in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The firm price of nickel iron has led to an upward trend in the stainless - steel market. On January 29, 2026, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,925 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel was at a discount of - 185 yuan/ton to the main stainless - steel contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has recovered month - on - month, and the chromium price has remained stable, providing some support to the stainless - steel cost. The stainless - steel output decreased month - on - month in December 2025, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. Currently, the social inventory has not shown obvious accumulation, but there may be some inventory pressure during the off - season, and the warehouse receipts remain at a low level. - **Outlook**: The production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the downstream demand is expected to be weak in the traditional off - season, which will suppress prices. However, considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the mine end, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][19]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply shortage continues, and tin prices are trending strongly. On January 29, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons month - on - month to 7,060 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 163 tons month - on - month to 8,494 tons; the Shanghai tin open interest decreased by 3,821 lots month - on - month to 106,892 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 438,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The tin supply problem is the key factor affecting prices. The explosive approval issue in Wa State is expected to be resolved soon, which may ease the local supply shortage. Indonesia's tin production quota this year may be set at 60,000 tons, but short - term supply will still be restricted due to the RKAB approval. The landslide in the Walikale area of North Kivu Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased supply concerns. In the future, the mine supply will continue to tighten, and the refined tin output will be difficult to increase. The recent increase in tin concentrate processing fees reflects the increasing financial pressure on some smelters. On the demand side, the US and Europe are in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal side is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: With high supply risks, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20]. 2.行情监测 Copper No specific monitoring content provided. Alumina No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum Alloy No specific monitoring content provided. Zinc No specific monitoring content provided. Lead No specific monitoring content provided. Nickel No specific monitoring content provided. Stainless Steel No specific monitoring content provided. Tin No specific monitoring content provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 (January 29, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2,995.74, an increase of 2.61%; the industrial products index was 2,422.72, an increase of 1.88%; the PPI commodity index was 1,509.62, an increase of 2.38%. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 29, 2026 was 2,977.78, with a daily increase of 3.02%, a 5 - day increase of 5.29%, a 1 - month increase of 11.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.86% [146][147].

Core Viewpoint - Furong Technology (603327.SH) plans to issue shares to specific investors through a simplified procedure, aiming to raise a total of no more than 300 million yuan, which will be fully allocated to the green low-carbon aluminum alloy new materials project in Chongzhou City [1] Group 1 - The company intends to raise funds not exceeding 300 million yuan, including the principal amount [1] - The raised funds will be used entirely for the green low-carbon aluminum alloy new materials project [1]

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