News Summary Core Viewpoint - India's palm oil imports in April decreased significantly to 891,558 tons from 1 million tons in March, indicating a potential decline in demand for palm oil [1] - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to an expected increase in palm oil inventory, which may rise by 15% month-on-month to 2.15 million tons [1][2] Group 1: Import and Pricing Data - In April, India imported 891,558 tons of vegetable oils, with palm oil imports at 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March [1] - As of May 14, the offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was $985, up $17.5 from the previous day, while the import cost was 8,768.89 yuan, an increase of 151.97 yuan [1] - The import profit for palm oil was negative at 78.89 yuan per ton, down 41.97 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - CIMB analysts predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 15% in May, reaching 2.15 million tons, which could exert downward pressure on crude palm oil prices [1] - The expected price range for crude palm oil in May is between 3,700 and 4,000 ringgit per ton [1] - The MPOB report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 1.866 million tons in April, a month-on-month increase of 19.37%, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic market conditions show stable but declining spot basis, with downstream demand primarily focused on essential purchases, leading to poor transaction conditions [3] - The short-term outlook for palm oil prices is limited on the downside due to substantial progress in US-China negotiations, which is favorable for commodities [3] - Recommendations for trading include observing the market or considering buying on dips, influenced by international biodiesel policies and domestic inventory changes [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA released its May report, with no adjustment to South American production and the US soybean yield maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre as in the February Outlook Forum, resulting in no significant change in the supply pattern [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,024.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 138 yuan or 1.75% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,814.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 34.00 yuan or 0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,378.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 23.00 yuan or 0.25% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of P09 + 506.00, a环比 decrease of 128.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,110.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 296.00, a环比 decrease of 64.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 152.00, a环比 decrease of 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 10 were 215,228 tons, a 1.9% increase from the 211,252 tons exported in the same period last month [2] US Soybean and Corn Information - In May, the expected US soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, with a market expectation of 4.338 billion bushels; the expected ending stocks are 295 million bushels, with a market expectation of 362 million bushels; the expected yield is 52.5 bushels per acre, in line with market expectations [2] - As of the week ending May 11, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, compared to 30% the previous week, 34% last year, and a five - year average of 37% [2] - The US corn planting rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared to 40% the previous week, 47% last year, and a five - year average of 56% [2] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - Global soybean exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season [2] - Exports from major South American soybean - producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to increase by 8.5 million tons, offsetting the decline in US exports [2] - Argentina's soybean imports are expected to increase due to increased supply from neighboring countries, and import demand in countries such as China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria has also risen [2] - China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be 112 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the revised 2024/25 season expectation [2] - Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million tons, mainly due to increased stocks in Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by the decline in US stocks [2] South American Soybean Production Forecast - The USDA maintained its forecast for Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production at 49 million tons, while the market expected 49.25 million tons [2] - The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production at 169 million tons, while the market expected 169.17 million tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of various oils showed different trends. BMD Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil futures prices declined, while ICE canola futures prices rose. The price of domestic rapeseed oil futures also increased, and the price of domestic soybean oil futures slightly decreased [4][7]. - After the holiday, palm oil was weak due to the arrival of the production - increasing season in the producing areas, a significant increase in production, limited support from export demand, and expected increases in domestic and foreign inventories. Canola prices continued to strengthen due to increased crushing demand and low domestic inventories. Domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong because of expected import tightening. US soybean oil prices declined as the US biodiesel policy was not authorized and the budget might be cut [4][7]. - Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached an important consensus, and the US stock market continued a small - scale rebound. The US dollar index might stabilize at a low level, and crude oil prices might stop falling and enter a volatile phase. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price changes of various oil contracts from April 30 to May 9 are as follows: CBOT soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.33 cents/lb to 48.64 cents/lb, a decline of 0.67%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract decreased by 95 ringgit/ton to 3815 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.43%; DCE palm oil decreased by 262 yuan/ton to 7886 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.22%; DCE soybean oil decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 7780 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%; CZCE rapeseed oil increased by 58 yuan/ton to 9355 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%. The futures price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 210 yuan/ton to - 106 yuan/ton, and the futures price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton. Spot prices also showed corresponding changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Trends**: After the holiday, palm oil was weak, canola strengthened, domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong, and US soybean oil declined [4][7]. - **Production and Inventory Forecasts**: According to Reuters, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in April 2025 was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 14.8% increase from March; production was expected to be 1.62 million tons, a 16.9% increase from March; and exports were expected to be 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March. As of May 2, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 0.0169 million tons from the previous week and 0.0998 million tons from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations improved the market sentiment. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Industry News - **Indonesia's Biodiesel**: As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, and the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel this year was 40%, higher than last year's 35% [12]. - **India's Oil Imports**: In April, India's palm oil imports decreased by 24% month - on - month to 322,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 2% to 363,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by nearly 6% to 180,000 tons. The total edible oil imports in April decreased by 11% month - on - month to 865,000 tons [12][13]. - **Myanmar's Palm Oil Market**: The wholesale reference price of palm oil in Yangon decreased from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week to 6,700 kyats per viss. Myanmar imports about 700,000 tons of palm oil annually to meet domestic demand [13]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 19 million tons, with a less - than - 1% upward revision from the previous forecast. The production in both the Malaysian Peninsula and East Malaysia increased seasonally [14]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production**: Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. Although some areas faced local floods in April, it was not expected to hinder the overall crop recovery [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, price differences, import profits, and inventory changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia [16][17][18]

Group 1 - The company plans to import 36,000 tons of high-quality white sugar premix powder from Thailand, with an expected import trade value of 20 million USD and revenue of 160 million RMB [1] - The company has established a production capacity of 30,000 tons for premixed sugar base materials and 50,000 tons for syrup, focusing on providing affordable tropical fruit products [3] - The company aims to leverage the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to enhance trade and cooperation between Thailand and Hunan [3] Group 2 - The establishment of the Huaihua International Land Port has facilitated the export of local agricultural products, with the first ASEAN train carrying products worth 15 million RMB to Vietnam [4] - The company has developed a standardized planting base of 150,000 acres and has a total output value expected to exceed 510 million RMB in 2024 [3] - The company is committed to deepening its market presence in ASEAN, aiming to export high-quality edible oils globally through the international land port [7] Group 3 - Local government initiatives focus on attracting investment by providing comprehensive services and simplifying approval processes for new projects [7] - The Huaihua International Land Port is seen as a significant advantage for reducing export costs and improving efficiency for local enterprises [7] - Media representatives from ASEAN countries express optimism about enhancing economic, tourism, and cultural exchanges with Hunan [7]

棕榈油月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 增产周期格局下 棕榈油或震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-09 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，外盘棕榈油、豆油价格走强，对内盘形成一定支撑，但整体基本面依然利多支撑不足， 价格难有大幅起色。 策略 谨慎看空 风险 政策变化 美豆油价格走强，国内油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7908.00元/吨，环比变化-6元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7760.00元 /吨，环比变化-26.00元，幅度-0.33%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9372.00元/吨，环比变化+37.00元，幅度+0.40%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+582.00，环比变化-34.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8110.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y09+350.00，环比变 化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9520.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.32%，现货基差OI09+148.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至5月6日当周，约15% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase as the industry approaches its production peak season [1][2]. - The forecast for April includes an expected import volume of 162 thousand tons, which represents a 16.9% increase compared to previous data [2]. - The anticipated export volume is projected at 110 thousand tons, reflecting a 9.7% increase [2]. - Domestic consumption is expected to reach 179 thousand tons, showing a 14.8% increase [2]. - The ending inventory for April is forecasted to be higher than the previous month, indicating a trend of increasing stock levels in the palm oil market [1][2]. Group 2 - The April data for 2024 shows an import volume of 150.19 thousand tons, with a domestic consumption of 123.42 thousand tons and an ending inventory of 174.45 thousand tons [2]. - The March data for 2025 indicates an import volume of 138.72 thousand tons and an ending inventory of 156.26 thousand tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and fat industry is cautiously bearish [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the superposition of negative factors, the prices of oils and fats are more likely to fall than to rise. The supply of oils and fats is gradually recovering, while the demand remains weak, and the low - running crude oil prices also put significant pressure on the prices of oils and fats [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,914.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 60 yuan and a decline of - 0.75%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,786.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 26.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,335.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 119.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.29% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 120.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.39%. The spot basis was P09 + 616.00, with a环比 change of - 60.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot basis was Y09 + 334.00, with a环比 change of - 16.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,490.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 120.00 yuan and an increase of + 1.28%. The spot basis was OI09 + 155.00, with a环比 change of + 1.00 yuan [1] Recent Market News - The July contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures closed down 65 ringgit, a decline of 1.71%, at 3,727 ringgit/ton (about 880.05 US dollars/ton). The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,028 US dollars/ton, down 52 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,008 US dollars/ton, down 47 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (July shipment) was 990 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 580 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) was 453 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) was 431 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) was 198 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (June shipment) was 175 cents/bu, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (June shipment) was 135 cents/bu, down 10 cents/bu from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. In the short - term, most products show a trend of volatile fluctuations, while in the long - term, the supply and price trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, consumption, and policy [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.2 - 16 yuan/kg, all stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the reduction of supply by large - scale enterprises at the end of the month and the resistance of small farmers support the price, but the increase in supply from secondary fattening and the weak demand limit the price increase. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The overall pig price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit, and short positions can be opened on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options on contracts 07 and 09 and take profit partially [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On April 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, and in Beijing 3.39 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the high price restricts the price increase, but the holiday demand and low inventory support the price. After the holiday, the price may be under pressure. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, but the impact of old chicken culling needs to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: For contract 06, hold a light position during the May Day holiday. Contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish in the long - term, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2]. Oil - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean oil主力 contract 07 fell 2.26% to 49.32 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil主力 contract 07 fell 0.53% to 3940 ringgit/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: For palm oil, the export increased in April, but the production also increased, and the inventory is expected to rise. In China, the supply and demand are both weak in April, but the supply will increase in May. For soybean oil, the South American supply is large in the second quarter, and the domestic supply will increase in the future. For rapeseed oil, the supply in Canada is tight, and the domestic inventory will gradually decrease [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for contracts 09 of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, and pay attention to the pressure levels [7]. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On April 29, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1052.5 cents/bushel, and the domestic M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply will increase with the arrival of soybeans and the increase in oil mill operation rate, and the price will decline. In the long - term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price up [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: short on rebounds for contract 09. Long - term: long on dips, and pay attention to the support level. Do long - short spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [7]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 29, the purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2406 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, but the market is optimistic about the future. In the long - term, the production reduction and decrease in imports drive the price up, but the substitutes limit the upside [7]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish in general, wait for dips to go long, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of most futures products showed fluctuations. For example, the CBOT soybean active contract fell 8.75 cents/bushel, the soybean meal主力 contract fell 21 yuan/ton, and the CBOT corn active contract fell 12 cents/bushel [8].

油脂板块震荡收涨 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨61收于4036林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.53%；棕榈油09合约涨244收于8376元/吨，涨幅3%；豆 油09合约涨230收于7934元/吨，涨幅2.99%；菜油09合约 涨285收于9506元/吨，涨幅3.09%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.38 收于49.7美分/磅，涨幅2.86%；ICE油菜籽活跃合约涨21.4 收于697.4加元/吨，涨幅3.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...