油脂日报 | 2025-12-10 USDA报告发布，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8648.00元/吨，环比变化-58元，幅度-0.67%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化-246.00元，幅度-2.99%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9393.00元/吨，环比变化-109.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化-90.00元，幅度-1.04%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.60%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化+196.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9640.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差 OI05+247.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，尽管下行风险有限且估值不高，但由于缺乏强劲的上行催化剂，研究机构Kenanga Research对种植业板块维持"中性"看法。该研究机构在一份报告中指出，今年的食用油供应紧张状况很可 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market in a wide - range oscillation, waiting for the final US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - The future trading of the oil and fat market will focus on the final determination of US biofuel obligations, the supply - demand balance game in palm oil - producing areas, the arrival schedule of US soybeans, and the progress of China - Canada relations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil and fat market lies in the game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the potential tight supply of rapeseed due to China - Canada relations, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils and fats [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation adjustment, with a possible upward shift in the price center in the medium term. - **Price Ranges**: P2601 oscillates between 8200 - 8900 yuan/ton, Y2601 between 8000 - 8400 yuan/ton, and OI between 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton. - **Technical Analysis**: For single - side short - term trading, consider a rebound in palm oil; for arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9300 - 10300 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [21][23]. - **Strategies**: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the basis strategy; for the calendar - spread strategy, with high uncertainty in Indonesia's B50 policy next year, holders of the P1 - 5 reverse spread can take profits [22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides detailed information on the daily prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both the futures and spot markets [24][25]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Indonesia's palm oil rectification is accelerating, which may disrupt production efficiency [26]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November is expected to reach a six - year high; domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are increasing, and the soybean crushing volume is high [27]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil and fat transactions have remained stable, with an increase in rapeseed oil transactions and a slight decline in soybean oil and palm oil transactions [28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's high - frequency palm oil production and export data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35]. 3. Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil and fat market rebounded this week, but lacks upward momentum. Capital trends vary among palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with different positions and sentiment [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to bottom out this week, remaining weak due to high inventory and average demand [33]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: The oil and fat market shows differentiation, with the soybean oil and rapeseed oil in a Back structure that has become shallower; the palm oil 1 - 5 spread has repaired upward, indicating lower expectations for the producing areas next year [34]. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm spreads all declined slightly this week, with rapeseed oil weakening and palm oil rebounding slightly [61]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weakly oscillating this week, with palm oil and soybean oil under pressure due to a lack of positive factors [65]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads rebounded slightly this week, but the cost of soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [68]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As a net importer of palm oil, China's import profit has changed slightly, with few new purchases due to the negative basis [70]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in November is expected to decline slightly, but the inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high, with supply pressure still existing [72]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Palm oil: Low procurement willingness due to the negative basis, and limited domestic purchases are expected during the off - season [75]. - Soybean oil: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [75]. - Rapeseed oil: The inventory will continue to decline, and supply may be tight if China - Canada relations do not improve [75]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats may remain stable and weak [77].

联系方式：010-85356618 频度：周 最新值 前值 周环比 棕榈油：库存：中国 （万吨） 68.37 65.35 4.62% 菜油：库存：中国 （万吨） 34.70 36.52 -4.98% 压榨厂：豆油：库存： 中国（万吨） 116.30 117.88 -1.34% 棕榈油：期现价差：中 国（元/吨） 42.00 51.00 -17.65% 菜油：期现价差：中国 （元/吨） 428.00 452.00 -5.31% 豆油、棕榈油：期现价 差：中国 （元/吨） -273.00 -178.00 53.37% 棕榈油现货主力合约基 差(元/吨） 43.33 -8.67 -599.77% 菜油现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 490.75 428.75 14.46% 豆油现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 293.47 281.47 4.26% 2025-06-06 棕榈油：库存：中国（周） 菜油：库存：中国（周） 油脂 近一年走势 2025-06-23 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 万吨 2022 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the fluctuation in soybean oil futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with current prices showing a slight decrease [1] - On December 4, the opening price of soybean oil futures was 51.71 cents per pound, reaching a high of 51.91 cents and a low of 51.19 cents, closing at 51.86 cents, reflecting a 0.39% increase [2] - The trading volume of first-grade soybean oil in China on December 4 was 23,500 tons, which is a 7.80% increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - The price of Argentine soybean oil for January shipment increased by $8 per ton to $1,206, while the price for March shipment decreased by $2 per ton to $1,138 [2] - Indian refiners canceled contracts for 70,000 tons of soybean oil that were scheduled for shipment between December and January [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View - The market for the three major oils is volatile. Strong stocking demand for the upcoming Lunar New Year and Ramadan celebrations in early 2026, along with floods in Asia that may slow down the picking rhythm, provide some support for the oils. However, the slower - than - expected reduction of soybean oil inventory keeps its price under pressure. Overall, the market is in a volatile state [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8730.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8286.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.00 yuan or -0.02% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9711.00 yuan/ton, a change of -34.00 yuan or -0.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + 10.00, a change of +70.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 174.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.60%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 259.00, a change of -26.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Agricultural Supervision - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a winter crop seed supervision and inspection across the country, focusing on key crops like corn, rice, soybeans, etc., to ensure the safety of agricultural seeds [2] Argentina's Soybean Forecast - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4690 tons, with a forecast range of 4580 - 4810 tons. The sowing is delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is decreasing [2] - The predicted sowing area is 1670 hectares, higher than the Rosario Exchange's prediction of 1640 hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's prediction of 1760 hectares [2] Import Price Changes - Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (January shipment) is 1198 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars/ton; (March shipment) is 1140 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton [2] - Canada's C&F price of rapeseed oil (January shipment) is 1105 dollars/ton, unchanged; (March shipment) is 1085 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Canada's C&F price of rapeseeds (January shipment) is 530 dollars/ton, unchanged; (March shipment) is 539 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton [2] - C&F prices of soybeans from different regions (January shipment): US Gulf at 499 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton; US West at 494 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; Brazil at 479 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2] Import Premium Changes - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) at 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) at 223 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) at 180 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel [2]

Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 2.09% month-on-month decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield for the period of November 1-30, 2025, while the extraction rate increased by 0.36% and production decreased by 0.19% compared to the previous month [1] - AmSpec indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,263,298 tons, a decrease of 15.89% from 1,501,945 tons in the previous month [2] - SGS reported a more significant decline in palm oil exports, with a total of 779,392 tons for the same period, down 39.21% from 1,282,036 tons in the previous month [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's statistics office reported that from January to October, the export volume of crude palm oil and refined palm oil reached 19.49 million tons [3] - A Reuters survey estimated that palm oil inventories in November would rise by 7.78% month-on-month to 2.66 million tons, the highest level since April 2019. The crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month, but still the highest recorded for November [3] Price Movements and Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing volatility due to strong rainfall affecting harvesting operations in major production areas, alongside general expectations of inventory accumulation. This has led to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in palm oil futures [5] - The upcoming official supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday is anticipated to influence market direction [5] Soybean Oil Market Activity - Indian buyers have secured significant soybean oil purchases for April to July 2026, a rare move aimed at countering rising palm oil prices. Patanjali Foods Ltd. revealed that traders have locked in over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil per month during this period, taking advantage of a price difference of $20 to $30 per ton compared to palm oil [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Core Insights - The article highlights the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the modern grain logistics system established in Jining, Shandong, leveraging the Grand Canal for transportation [1][2][3] Group 1: Logistics Efficiency - The Jining grain logistics park has a dedicated dock that allows for seamless transfer of grain from ships to storage, significantly reducing transportation costs from 170 yuan per ton to 70 yuan, a decrease of 59% [1] - The logistics park can receive 12 to 15 train cars of grain daily, with each car carrying approximately 60 tons, enhancing circulation efficiency by over 30% [1] Group 2: Storage Capacity and Technology - The storage facilities in the park consist of 14 flat warehouses and 10 round silos, with a total capacity of 167,400 tons, complemented by three 1,000-ton edible oil storage tanks [2] - The park employs digital grain storage technology to achieve zero loss and high-quality preservation of grain [2] Group 3: Comprehensive Service Offering - The logistics park provides a full-chain solution for clients, including grain transfer, storage, trade, logistics distribution, quality testing, and information consulting [2] - By 2025, the park aims to achieve a dual milestone of 2 million tons in both grain trade volume and port logistics transfer volume [2] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The park plans to build flour and feed processing plants, leveraging water transport advantages to expand its reach into the Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu regions [3] - The focus is on enhancing the grain industry towards high-value processing, promoting an integrated, intelligent, and green development model [3]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂月报 东南亚遭受洪涝灾害 国内油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251130 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：段福林 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，巴西进入种植末期，阿根廷已经完成36%的大豆播种率，南美大豆种植顺利推进。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，MPOA数据显示，马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油产量环比增加3.24%；SPPOMA ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the core contradiction in the global oil market is focused on the good production in major producing countries and the uncertainty of biodiesel industry policies and trade policies. In the palm oil sector, Indonesia's production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, and Malaysia's annual production remains stable, with an unexpectedly high inventory in October. For soybean oil, although the global soybean production has a phased decline due to the US, the increase in South American soybean production ensures a bumper global soybean harvest. Rapeseed oil supply is also basically good, with the EU's rapeseed production increase contributing 54.7% of the global increment. China's anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed has significantly reduced China's rapeseed import scale. On the demand side, biodiesel policies show great fluctuations, and Indonesia's B50 expectation, as well as the US biodiesel blending targets and subsidy policies, have a great impact on the demand side [4][96] - The prices of the three major domestic oils show a significant differentiation trend, and the difference in supply - demand patterns and policy regulation directions are the core influencing variables. Rapeseed oil prices show a characteristic of oscillating upward with a rising bottom. The policy of imposing anti - dumping deposits on Canadian rapeseed in August has broken the previous supply - demand balance, leading to a sharp decline in domestic rapeseed inventory and a drop in the oil mill operating rate. Although the inventory was high in the first half of the year, the expectation of supply contraction has become the core pricing logic. Soybean oil prices oscillate between cost support and inventory suppression. After April, the concentrated arrival of South American soybeans has led to high crushing volume and a rise in inventory, and the weakening of the double - festival stocking demand has caused a price correction. The soybean gap in the third and fourth quarters may have less impact than expected. Palm oil prices show a downward oscillating trend. The increase in production in major producing countries and the surge in domestic imports have brought double supply pressure, increasing the domestic inventory. Only the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy has provided phased support, but the uncertainty of the future B50 policy still poses great price risks [4][5][97] - Future research on the oil market should focus on three core factors. On the supply side, it is necessary to track the weather changes during the sowing period of South American soybeans, the entry of major palm oil producing countries into the seasonal production - reduction cycle, the implementation progress and funding guarantee of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, and the changes in China - Canada trade policies and the export scale of Australian rapeseed to China. On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of domestic catering consumption and the boost of the US biodiesel industry's profit improvement on soybean oil consumption. In terms of inventory, the high inventory pressure of soybean oil needs to be digested through the expansion of the export market and the recovery of terminal consumption, the inventory accumulation pressure of palm oil may gradually ease with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction period in producing areas, and the low - inventory pattern of rapeseed oil is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term [4][6][98] Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review of the Three Major Oils' Market Conditions - From January to October 2025, the prices of the three major domestic vegetable oils fluctuated greatly and showed significant differentiation. Rapeseed oil prices oscillated upward, with the spot average price in October rising 10.5% compared to January. Soybean oil prices slightly fluctuated between cost and inventory, with the average price in October rising only 2.28% compared to January. Palm oil prices oscillated downward, with the average price in October falling 6.47% compared to January [12] - From January to March, the three major oils were in the initial game stage. Rapeseed oil was balanced between high carry - over inventory and Spring Festival stocking demand. Soybean oil oscillated at the bottom, supported by low soybean arrivals and low crushing volume. Palm oil oscillated downward under policy negatives and production - reduction support [14][16] - From April to July, the market differentiation of the three major oils intensified. Rapeseed oil oscillated at a high level, restricted by high inventory and slow catering recovery. Soybean oil prices fell under the pressure of abundant supply. Palm oil prices continued to decline due to increased production in major producing countries [16][18] - From August to October, policy variables became the key to break the market balance. Rapeseed oil prices rose unilaterally after the anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed. Soybean oil prices first rose due to cost - push and then adjusted due to high inventory. Palm oil prices first rebounded and then fell back, affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the increase in inventory [18] Global Oil Supply Analysis Global Palm Oil Supply - Indonesia and Malaysia account for over 80% of global palm oil production, and their supply - demand patterns dominate the global market. In 2025, Indonesia entered the seasonal production - increase period in March. From June to August, its monthly average production increased by over 30%. The increase in exports and domestic industrial consumption due to biodiesel policies effectively digested the supply pressure. GAPKI estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production will increase by about 10% this year and about 5% next year, but the weather in 2026 may be a variable [20][23] - Malaysia's annual palm oil production fluctuated seasonally, with the total output from January to October increasing slightly by 1.77% year - on - year. Due to the aging of oil palm trees and limited new planting areas, its production growth was restricted. From June to October, exports were lower than expected due to competition from Indonesia, leading to an increase in inventory. In October, the inventory was 30.72% higher than the same period last year [26][27] Global Soybean Supply - Global soybean production increased from 316,072 thousand tons in the 2015/16 season to 427,136 thousand tons in the 2024/25 season, but decreased by 1.3% in the 2025/26 season, mainly due to a 2.3% reduction in harvested area, while the yield per unit area increased by 0.7% [30] - In the US, although the planting area decreased, the yield per unit area was at a high level, and the total output reached 115 million tons. In South America, Brazil's soybean planting progress in the 2025/26 season is smooth, and overseas institutions have a high - yield expectation, with estimates generally in the range of 175 - 180 million tons. Argentina may reduce the soybean planting area, and the estimated output is in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [31][34] - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean ending inventory decreased slightly by 1.1%, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased from 20.6% to 20.0%. The US soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased, and the ending inventory decreased by 8.5% compared to the 2024/25 season [37] Global Rapeseed Oil Supply - From 2015/16 to 2024/25, global rapeseed supply showed a fluctuating upward trend, and in 2025/26, the total output increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The EU's rapeseed production increase contributed 54.7% of the global increment [44] - In Canada, the yield per unit area in 2025/26 recovered to a high level in the past five years, and the total output increased by 4.0% year - on - year, accounting for 21.7% of the global total output. In the EU, the rapeseed output in 2025/26 increased by 19.3% year - on - year, driven by the improvement of yield per unit area and the expansion of harvested area [48][49] Global Oil Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - Globally, biodiesel production increased continuously from 2021 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025. Traditional production areas such as the EU and the US are showing a slowdown or decline in growth, while some countries in Southeast Asia and South America, such as Indonesia and Brazil, are the main driving forces for growth [54][55] US Biodiesel Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the profit of the US biodiesel industry was poor, and production decreased significantly. In order to relieve the supply pressure, US soybean oil prices decreased to gain export competitiveness. However, since October, the profit of the biodiesel industry has improved significantly. The US Environmental Protection Agency has adjusted the renewable fuel obligation targets for 2026 and 2027, and future implementation needs to be monitored [58][60][65] Indian Oil Consumption - In the 2024/25 season, India's total oil imports decreased slightly by 0.32% year - on - year, but palm oil imports decreased by 16.82% due to price increases and tariff adjustments. From January to May, India mainly consumed inventory, and from June to September, imports increased significantly as inventory reached a low level. India's oil consumption growth supports the global oil market, and its palm oil consumption and inventory are important factors affecting palm oil prices [66][67][69] Domestic Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Imports - From January to September 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 5.29% year - on - year. The direct import of soybean oil was relatively small, with a 5.12% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 42.19% year - on - year, while rapeseed oil imports increased by 18.13% year - on - year. Palm oil imports decreased by 19.21% year - on - year, mainly due to the production pattern in major producing countries and the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [72][74][82] Consumption - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean crushing increased by 5.24% year - on - year. Rapeseed crushing decreased by 47.7% year - on - year, mainly due to policy and supply constraints. Palm oil consumption showed obvious seasonal fluctuations, with overall weak demand and slow inventory digestion [83][86][89] Inventory - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 4.84% year - on - year, reaching a peak due to high crushing volume and weak consumption in summer. Rapeseed oil inventory decreased significantly after the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. Palm oil inventory first decreased due to supply shortages and then increased due to increased production in major producing countries and weak demand [90][94] Market Outlook - The core contradictions in the 2025 global oil market remain, and the prices of the three major domestic oils will continue to be affected by supply - demand patterns and policies in the future. Future research should focus on supply - side factors such as weather, biodiesel policies, and trade policies, as well as demand - side factors such as domestic catering consumption and US biodiesel industry profits [96][98]