Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, it is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. The polyester downstream load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, and the actual polyester output has reached a new high. PTA will go through a destocking process, and the spot is becoming tight. For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, it will continue to destock, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose from 529.9 yuan/barrel on June 13, 2025, to 541.6 yuan/barrel on June 16, an increase of 11.7 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 931.2 yuan/ton to 830.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.2418 to 1.2109. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 4782 yuan/ton to 4766 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped slightly from 5010 yuan/ton to 5005 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 382.6 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 154.6 yuan/ton to 72.5 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1002 to 84853 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price rose from 4334 yuan/ton to 4374 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (135.61) yuan/ton to (131.80) yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4426 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 854 to 866, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 246. The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices all increased, with cash flows turning positive. The long - filament sales rate dropped from 447% to 30% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6665 to 6690, and the cash flow increased from 7 to 28. The short - fiber sales rate dropped from 105% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price rose from 5925 to 5960, and the chip cash flow increased from (183) to (152). The chip sales rate dropped from 257% to 40% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07%, the PTA operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 81.57%, the MEG operating rate increased from 54.40% to 56.16%, and the polyester load increased slightly from 89.64% to 89.74% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the intensified Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the crude oil price first soared and then declined, and the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly accordingly. The planned production cuts of bottle chips increased, and the polyester industry chain was under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation [1]. - Regarding the cost side, the recent oil price has risen sharply due to the intensified Middle - East conflict. If the conflict causes more damage to energy facilities or affects the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may face further upward risks; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline again. The gasoline cracking spread in the US has retracted, and the blending demand is not promising. The PX short - process plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 234 dollars/ton (with no change from the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has generally increased recently, but it will decline again in July. The tight supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was 231 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the spot processing fee was 310 yuan/ton (a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The PTA load continued to increase this week, and the supply became more abundant. It is expected that the PTA spot price will oscillate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.9% (a 0.2% decrease from the previous period). The terminal orders have weakened again since late May, and the downstream operating rates have declined slightly. The polyester load has remained stable recently after a decline, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (a 26 - yuan increase from the previous period). The price will remain high under the low inventory of short - fiber factories and the operation to maintain the processing margin [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 309 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip price increased following the raw materials, but the new order procurement enthusiasm of overseas customers was not high due to the high ocean freight in June. The inventory pressure of polyester bottle - chip factories has increased again. The production cuts of major factories are being implemented, and the processing fee is expected to face pressure in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests that PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short term under the Israel - Iran conflict, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and further production - cut actions of polyester and the geopolitical conflict need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East - China spot basis and the basis of 1.56D*38mm semi - dull pure - white short fibers [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, the spread between South Korean FOB toluene and Japanese CFR naphtha, and the PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It provides information on the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [29][32][33]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are presented [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It shows the production and sales of filaments and short fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Also, the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments are provided [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester short - fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rates and production profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and the spread between raw and recycled polyester short fibers [73][81][83]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It presents the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and the price spreads between different periods of bottle chips [90][92][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing an unfavorable demand situation and generally follows cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 16, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 1.66% and 1.35% respectively; the spot price of naphtha increased by 0.59%; the spot price of xylene decreased by 1.88%; the CFR price of PX in China's main port increased by 1.43% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts showed mixed trends; the domestic spot price of PTA decreased by 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of PTA's inner and outer markets showed different changes, with the outer market increasing by 4.03%; the near - far month spread increased by 132 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - **PX Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts were mostly flat; the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged; the spot prices of PX in CFR Taiwan and FOB South Korea increased; the PXN spread increased by 3.66%; the PX - MX spread increased by 23.94%; the basis increased by 22 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts increased slightly; the market prices of polyester bottle chips in the East and South China markets showed different trends; the basis in the East China market increased by 22 yuan/ton, while that in the South China market decreased by 38 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: On June 16, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips all increased to varying degrees [2] Operating Conditions - On June 16, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged; the load rates of PTA factories, bottle - chip factories decreased, while the load rate of polyester factories increased slightly, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On June 16, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips all decreased significantly [1] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2] Important News - **International Crude Oil**: After Iran's missile counter - attack over the weekend, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East suddenly increased, causing oil prices to rise sharply. However, as Iran sought to restart nuclear negotiations, oil prices fell on Monday. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the weak demand cannot be ignored [2] - **PX**: In the case of acceptable processing profits, some PX devices increased their loads, and some postponed maintenance plans, increasing the overall supply capacity. In the medium - term, PX will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. The tense situation in the Middle East has driven the oil market to be strong, and with subsequent Asian device maintenance plans, the supply - demand tight - balance expectation continues [2] - **PTA**: The PTA market declined slightly due to the planned joint production cut of downstream polyester bottle - chip manufacturers, which weakened the impact of a PTA device's production cut in East China. The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the planned restart capacity this week is more than the planned maintenance capacity, so the PTA supply will increase this month. Although most polyester products are theoretically in production losses, the announced polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the rigid demand is expected to be stable. The domestic weaving market continued to decline in June, with a small number of US orders emerging. The terminal inventory pressure is large, and the operating rate of weaving factories is expected to decline [2] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased by 5 yuan/ton. The polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations of bottle chips were mixed, and the downstream terminal demand was mainly small rigid orders. Some mainstream factories on the supply side announced maintenance plans, and the operating rate is expected to decline, while the market supply is currently sufficient [2] Trading Strategy - PTA rose and then fell, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4766 yuan/ton (-0.42%) and an intraday trading volume of 1.5 million lots; PX was greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6758 yuan/ton (-0.21%) and an intraday trading volume of 342,900 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5980 yuan/ton (0.17%) and an intraday trading volume of 61,000 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, international oil prices first rose sharply and then fell by 5%, but the decline narrowed at the close [2]

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2023- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-08 2024-06 01 01 05 09 02 09 01 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 FDY现金流 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8850.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/10 下 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7175.00 | 0.35% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D | 2025/6/10 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7100.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 6510.00 | 6500.00 | 0.15% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 5850.00 | 5860.00 | -0.17% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/10 | 元/吨 | 5900.00 | 5900.00 | 0.00% | | 西 ...

期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4292元/吨（较前一交易日变动-14元/吨，幅度-0.33%），EG华东市场现货价 4415元/吨（较前一交易日变动-63元/吨，幅度-1.41%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）128元/吨（环比-19元/ 吨）。 化工日报 | 2025-06-05 聚酯减产下市场情绪偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-29美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为149元/吨（环比-10 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨（环比-6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为57.7万吨（环比-3.5万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限，仓单固化 下流通性收紧；需求端，聚酯减 ...

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-08 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-06 02 09 01 05 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：聚酯加大减产力度，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：单边逢高空，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | 4393 | 6430 | 3530 | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: PX supply is increasing as PX device maintenance ends and device loads rapidly recover, including those of companies like CICC, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Shenghong, and overseas aromatic hydrocarbon devices are also gradually recovering. The domestic PTA device maintenance is ending, the PTA basis is weakening, and the market is under selling pressure. The positive spread has weakened, the PTA monthly spread has decreased, and polyester factories may slightly reduce production [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The port inventory in East China remains at over 700,000 tons with little change. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol devices is rising, but coal prices are also increasing. The profit of coal - based devices is compressed, and mainstream device loads are about to be maintained, leading to a subsequent de - stocking phase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price dropped from 459.7 yuan/barrel on May 26, 2025, to 458.3 yuan/barrel on May 27, 2025, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA market declined slightly. The PTA - SC spread increased by 26.17 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0091. The PTA futures price rose by 16 yuan/ton, the spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee decreased by 30.3 yuan/ton, the on - screen processing fee decreased by 19.3 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. The number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **MEG**: The spot price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The futures price first declined and then rose, and the basis strengthened. The MEG - naphtha spread increased by 0.8 yuan/ton, the MEG domestic price decreased by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 16 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained at 79.18% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate remained at 79.28% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate remained at 51.60% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load increased from 90.75% to 90.81%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 35 yuan/ton, and the filament sales rate increased from 36% to 57%, a 21 - percentage - point increase [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased from - 24 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton, and the staple fiber sales rate increased from 45% to 54%, a 9 - percentage - point increase [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the cash flow decreased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 159 yuan/ton, and the chip sales rate decreased from 65% to 38%, a 27 - percentage - point decrease [2]. Device Maintenance - Due to the recent rapid increase in raw material prices, three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making products and plan further production cuts to be implemented in the short term [2].

化工日报 | 2025-05-28 聚酯负荷下降，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 单边：短期谨慎看多，近期卫星等几套大装置有检修计划，仓单固化下流通性收紧，到港量偏少下短期价格有支 撑 跨期：正套 跨品种：无 风险 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4387元/吨（较前一交易日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.14%），EG华东市场现货价4516 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-29元/吨，幅度-0.64%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）148元/吨（环比+18元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-21美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为216元/吨（环比 +13元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为68.7万吨（环比-5.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.2万吨（环比-5.2万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.6万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数9.2万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划，短期国内EG负荷维持低位；需求端，近端聚酯 负荷有所回落，但整 ...