Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of slight weakening in employment, with October non-farm payrolls significantly declining due to the end of government layoffs, although private employment continues to expand [2] - November non-farm payrolls rebounded better than market expectations, primarily in construction, healthcare, and education services, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years [2] - The overall job market is weakening but not severely deteriorating, with initial and continuing claims for unemployment benefits showing slight improvement [2] - The economic growth rate and unemployment rate are expected to stabilize by 2026, with inflation anticipated to decrease before rising again, and the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates once in June [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,469, up 0.92% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.03% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index saw a rise of 1.68% [2] - In the US, the Dow Jones fell by 0.47%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.16%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 1.81% [2] - The DAX in Germany and CAC in France also experienced slight declines, while the FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 0.92% [2] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound, with materials, information technology, and financial sectors leading the gains, while utilities, telecommunications, and real estate lagged [4] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 7.909 billion, with Xiaomi, Meituan, and Alibaba being the top net purchases, while China Mobile and CNOOC saw significant net sales [4] - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 1.03% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index increased by 0.94% [3] Chinese Market Developments - The Chinese market regulatory authority warned that requiring merchants to offer "lowest prices online" could constitute monopoly behavior, encouraging platform companies to develop algorithm screening to prevent algorithmic monopolies [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to launch full island closure, focusing on "one line open, one line controlled" to promote trade and investment liberalization, significantly reducing business operating costs [4] US Market Insights - The US stock market continued to decline, with technology, industrial, and communication services sectors leading the losses, while energy, consumer staples, and materials sectors saw gains [4] - The AI sector faced continued sell-offs, with Nvidia and Caterpillar experiencing significant declines [4] - The Federal Reserve's latest survey indicated that CFOs expect a 4.2% increase in US prices next year, significantly higher than the Fed's forecast of inflation returning close to 2% [4]

Group 1 - As of December 17, the total shareholding of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks accounts for 19.33% of the total share capital, with a total market value of HKD 60,627.61 billion [1] - There are 247 stocks where the shareholding ratio of southbound funds exceeds 20% [1] Group 2 - China Telecom has the highest shareholding ratio at 72.27%, followed by Gree Power and China Gas with 70.08% and 69.75% respectively [3] - The stocks with high southbound fund holdings are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 56, 36, and 34 stocks respectively [3] - Over half of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 128 out of the 247 stocks also listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, representing 51.82% [3]

Core Insights - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 19.33%, with 247 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - Southbound funds hold a total of 4,915.49 million shares, accounting for 19.33% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a market value of 60,627.61 billion HKD, representing 14.57% of the total market value [1] Group 1: Shareholding Distribution - 247 stocks have a shareholding ratio of over 20%, 130 stocks between 10% and 20%, 94 stocks between 5% and 10%, 84 stocks between 1% and 5%, and 26 stocks below 1% [1] - The stock with the highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is China Telecom, holding 1,003.09 million shares, which is 72.27% of the issued shares [2] - Other notable stocks with high shareholding ratios include Green Power Environmental (70.08%) and China Resources Power (69.75%) [2] Group 2: Industry Concentration - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 56, 36, and 34 stocks respectively [2] - The healthcare sector shows significant representation among high-shareholding stocks, with several companies like WuXi AppTec (57.49%) and Fosun Pharma (57.43%) [3] - The industrial sector also features prominently, with companies such as China Shenhua (66.44%) and COSCO Shipping Energy (63.69%) [2][3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant transformation in China's foreign openness, shifting from market-driven to rule-driven approaches, emphasizing the establishment of a new open economic system centered on institutional openness [6] Group 1: Trade Developments - China's total goods trade is projected to reach 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 12.5% of global trade, showcasing resilience despite global economic challenges [7] - The trade structure is continuously optimizing, with an increasing proportion of high-tech and high-value-added product exports [7] - China is enhancing its trade system's resilience through various measures, including deepening regional economic cooperation and promoting green and low-carbon trade transitions [7] Group 2: Service Trade - China has become a global leader in service trade but faces internal and external pressures, including geopolitical factors and regulatory barriers [8] - The report identifies service trade as a key area for future breakthroughs in China's openness, necessitating institutional innovations to align with international standards [8] Group 3: Financial Opening - China is cautiously advancing financial sector openness, capital account liberalization, and the internationalization of the yuan, achieving notable progress [9] - The yuan has become the world's third-largest payment currency and the second-largest trade financing currency, with its functions steadily enhancing [9] - Challenges include balancing efficiency and security amid rising financial protectionism and uncertainties in the international monetary system [9] Group 4: International Technology Cooperation - The global technology cooperation landscape is facing fragmentation and politicization, prompting China to restructure its international technology cooperation framework [10] - There is a shift from a single global innovation network to a focus on regional collaboration and self-sufficiency in key areas [10] Group 5: Foreign Investment - China's foreign investment structure is evolving, characterized by regionalization, greening, and high-end features [11] - The report introduces the "China Foreign Investment Uncertainty Index (IPU)," indicating multifaceted risks in foreign investments, particularly in strategic sectors like AI and biotechnology [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The report concludes that China is undergoing a profound historical transformation in its foreign openness, aiming to establish a new cooperation framework centered on institutional openness [12] - Key strategies include aligning with international trade rules, enhancing resource allocation capabilities, and strengthening risk prevention systems [12]

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

山西全省社会融资存量规模突破7万亿元 张永胜表示，将进一步加强政策协调、管理协同和服务协作，着力打通政策传导的堵点、打破银企信息 的壁垒、打牢金融基础设施的根基，构建更加友好的地方金融生态。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 中新网太原12月16日电 (记者 李庭耀)记者16日从中共山西省委宣传部、山西省人民政府新闻办公室举 行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会获悉，山西全省社会融资存量规模突破7万亿元， 是"十三五"末的1.47倍。 编辑：张嘉怡 新闻发布会现场。 主办方供图 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 山西省地方金融管理局局长张炯玮介绍，"十四五"以来，山西省金融业增加值平稳增长，2024年，全省 金融业增加值实现1520.2亿元，是2020年的1.26倍。各项存款、贷款余额分别为6.4万亿元、4.9万亿元， 是"十三五"末的1.5倍、1.6倍。 金融服务实体经济方面，山西省地方金融管理局副局长、新闻发言人张永胜介绍，山西新兴产业贷款余 额由2020年末的1121亿元增长至2935亿元，维持了年均15%以上的高增长态势，远快于各项贷款增长速 度。 同时，山西建设省级地方征信平台，发挥金融基础设施优化营 ...

12月16日，在北京市政府新闻办举办的"一把手发布·京华巡礼"系列主题新闻发布会上，东城区委副书 记、区长陈献森介绍，"十四五"期间，作为首都功能核心区，东城区在服务保障首都功能、推动文化传 承创新、激发经济新动能、提升城市治理效能和增进民生福祉等方面取得显著进展。严格执行核心区控 规，累计实现建筑规模减量约230万平方米；长安街沿线环境品质显著提升，北京站等重要节点展现大 国首都风貌。 "文化+"赋能发展，古都焕发时代新彩 东城区深耕"文化+"战略，全力推动中轴线申遗与保护，辖区内世界文化遗产数量达4处，居全市首位。 中轴线申遗成功后，推出宏恩观、钟鼓楼等文化新空间，并举办系列文化活动，吸引超2500万人次参 与。文化产业蓬勃发展，收入突破1500亿元，4家企业获评国家文化产业示范基地。驻区企业出品的 《哪吒之魔童闹海》进入全球影史票房榜前五，文化软实力持续转化为发展硬支撑。 改革激发经济新动能，"黄金宝地"产出"钻石效益"。陈献森介绍，东城区以全市约0.25%的面积，贡献 了近8%的地区生产总值，2024年GDP达3808.7亿元，预计"十四五"期间年均增速超5%。金融业作为第 一支柱产业，吸引摩根士丹利 ...

截至发稿，爱建集团市值为84亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中标企业频频弃标 大型医疗设备采购有何难言之隐？ （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，爱建集团（SH 600643，收盘价：5.25元）12月16日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告披露 日，公司及控股子公司2025年经审议生效的对外担保额度为人民币98亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资 产的83.23%。截至本公告披露日，相关担保余额约为17.65亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的 14.99%。 2024年1至12月份，爱建集团的营业收入构成为：融资租赁业占比37.71%，金融业占比35.59%，商业占 比20.76%，其他业务占比5.94%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the valuation repair in the A-share market in 2025, the main driving force in 2026 is expected to shift more towards the substantial improvement of the profit fundamentals. The core logic of this profit recovery lies in the gradual re - balancing of the supply - demand pattern. With the continuous deepening of the "anti - involution" policy and the natural clearing of the production capacity cycle, enterprise profit margins have stabilized first, and asset turnover is also expected to gradually pick up. The moderate recovery of PPI will drive the profit margin repair of the mid - stream manufacturing industry, and the gradual entry of AI technology into the commercial application stage will also promote the accelerated growth of revenues in related industries [3][54]. - The capital side is expected to remain generally abundant, supported by three aspects: the continuous transfer of domestic residents' asset allocation to equity products, the potential return of foreign capital to the A - share market as the external environment stabilizes, and the steady entry of long - term funds such as pensions and insurance funds, which will provide stable liquidity support for the market [3][54]. - Overall, the reasonable level of the valuation side and the positive factors on the capital side will provide strong support for the performance of the A - share market in 2026 [3][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Index Review - Since the beginning of the year, all major domestic stock indices have shown an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index having the largest increase and the Composite Index having the smallest increase. In terms of structure, small and medium - cap indices performed better. As of December 15, the ChiNext Index rose 49.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 36.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 27.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 26.18%. The small and medium - cap 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index rose 25.66%, 25.22%, and 23.72% respectively. In addition, the CSI 300 Index rose 16.42%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.04%, the SSE 50 Index rose 11.54%, and the Composite Index rose 11.29% [10]. - In 2025, the A - share market showed an "N" - shaped upward trend, mainly centered around the triple game of external environment disturbances, internal policy adjustments, and technological industry breakthroughs. It was affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut policy and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches from risk aversion to confidence repair, then to trend - up and structural digestion [12]. 3.1.2 Sector Review - In the first half of 2025, most sectors showed an upward trend. As of December 15, among the primary industries, the materials and information technology sectors led the gains, with annual increases of 47.22% and 44.03% respectively. The industrial sector rose 27.32%, the communication services sector rose 20.30%, the healthcare sector rose 16.22%, and the optional consumer sector rose 14.48%. The annual increases of the finance, energy, utilities, and real estate sectors were all less than about 10%. The only sector that declined was the daily consumer sector, which fell 1.68% [17]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Review - The overall trend of stock index futures in 2025 was consistent with the index market, showing an "N" - shaped trend. As of December 15, the SSE 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 Index rose 12.60%, 20.21%, 38.61%, and 39.66% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. In terms of trading volume, the average annual daily trading volumes of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 35,000 lots, 70,000 lots, 63,000 lots, and 147,000 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, the average annual daily open interests of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 56,000 lots, 143,000 lots, 105,000 lots, and 175,000 lots respectively [19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Economic Progress - **GDP Data**: In 2025, China's economic growth rate showed a pattern of high at the beginning and stable later. The GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the full - year growth rate of the previous year [22][27]. - **PMI Data**: Since the beginning of the year, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI have fluctuated around the boom - bust line (50). In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly increasing by 0.2 percentage points but remaining below the boom - bust line. The service industry index in November was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous value [30]. - **Inflation Data**: Since the beginning of the year, the overall price level has shown a pattern of low - level CPI fluctuations and continuous negative PPI growth. However, there are positive structural changes. The core CPI has continued to rise since the second quarter, and the decline of PPI has significantly narrowed since August, showing signs of stabilization [31]. - **Consumption Data**: From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, faster than the same period and the full - year of the previous year. In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate continuing to decline. Service consumption grew rapidly, and the consumption of cultural and sports services maintained double - digit growth [38][39]. - **Fixed Investment Data**: From January to November, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while project investment excluding real - estate development investment increased by 0.8%. Investment in emerging fields showed good momentum, and investment in some traditional industries also expanded. Policy effects continued to appear, and equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 12.2% year - on - year [41]. - **Outlook for the 2026 Economy**: In 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve "repair - type" growth and structural re - balancing under policy support, showing a "stable at the beginning and rising later" trend. The GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5%, inflation is expected to enter a moderate recovery channel, and policies will focus on boosting consumption [44]. 3.2.2 Macroeconomic Policies Supporting the A - share Market - The "anti - involution" policy will continue to deepen, aiming to optimize the industrial structure and enhance global competitiveness. Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to continue. The fiscal deficit ratio is expected to remain at about 4%, the scale of new special bonds may reach 4.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase to 1.6 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate is expected to be between 7.7% and 8.1%, with possible reserve - requirement ratio cuts of 50 basis points and interest - rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points [46][48]. 3.2.3 Tariff Uncertainty Disturbing the A - share Market - In April 2025, the US announced a series of tariff policies, which led to significant fluctuations in the A - share market in the short term. In the long term, it accelerated the transformation of A - share listed companies in two aspects: diversifying export markets and strengthening the "self - controllable" logic [49][50]. 3.2.4 Overseas Liquidity Loosening Supporting the A - share Market - The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points. This has two main impacts on the A - share market: expanding domestic policy space and boosting market risk appetite. However, the medium - and long - term trend of the market still depends on the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals and policy effects [51][52]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, stock index futures were affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and Fed interest - rate cut policy changes and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches [53]. - In 2026, the A - share market is expected to be driven more by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and the capital side is expected to remain abundant, providing strong support for the market [54].

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a V-shaped recovery this week, initially declining before rebounding, with the Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index closing down by -0.45%, -0.42%, and -0.43% respectively [5][15] - Value stocks and large-cap stocks outperformed, while growth stocks weakened. The financial and information technology sectors were the only ones to see gains, increasing by 0.88% and 0.34% respectively [5][15] - The energy sector faced significant declines, dropping by 5.35% due to weak international oil prices and lowered profit expectations [15] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 83.39%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [5] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market saw increased activity this week, with 81 companies participating, up by 6 from the previous week. The total buyback amount reached 5.219 billion HKD, an increase of 198 million HKD from last week [27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buyback activity with a total of 3.178 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with 699 million HKD [27] Macro Environment Tracking - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is heavily reliant on Chinese state-owned enterprises, with over 80% of profits coming from mainland China, indicating a strong correlation with the economic conditions in China [39][40] - Key economic indicators show that China's trade value for the first 11 months of the year reached 41.21 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [39][40] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for "practicing internal skills to cope with external challenges," highlighting a shift in focus towards quality and efficiency in economic growth [43] Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors benefiting from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology. Additionally, low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks are expected to perform well during the interest rate easing cycle [5][43]