A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 10 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场整体表现强劲，成交活跃度显著提升。宽基指数中，中证 500、中证 1000 和中证 2000 涨幅居前，分别上涨 7.92%、7.03%和 6.54%，显示中 小盘股表现突出。风格指数方面，小盘成长领涨，上涨 6.96%。行业板块来看，国防 军工、传媒、有色金属和计算机等板块涨幅较大，其中国防军工和传媒均实现超 13% 的涨幅。市场日均成交额达到 2.85 万亿，环比大幅增长 35.68%。 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周 A 股市场实现"开门红"，主要指数 ...

2026年1月5日，标准普尔全球（S&P Global）发布2025年度万物；云可持续发展评估（CSA）报告。报告显示，本次评估数据具备较高的透明度，万物云空 间科技服务股份有限公司（HK.02602）ESG评分为66分，较上一年度实现较大跃升。 图为万物云最新标准普尔全球可持续发展评估报告节选 报告中的"标准记分卡"显示，万物云ESG评分表现优于全球93%的同行业企业，反映出公司在环境、社会和企业治理层面的表现在全球同业中属于领先水 平。 此外，本年度万物云WIND万得ESG评级上调至AA级，香港恒生指数ESG评级上调至A-级，均在行业处于领先地位。 | 公司名称: | 万物云 | | --- | --- | | 股票代号: | 02602 | | 交易所: | 香港交易所 | | 行业: | 地产建筑业 | 图为万物云2025年度万得WIND ESG评级与恒指ESG评级结果 未来，万物云将持续提升可持续发展能力与韧性，进一步优化ESG管理体系并与结合业务战略落地。 ...

生物科技、半导体行业走强，新能源车概念股调整。 【导读】马斯克打开脑机接口想象空间，南京熊猫电子一度狂飙超49% 2026年1月5日，港股震荡微涨。恒生指数收涨0.03%，报26347.24点；恒生科技指数收涨0.09%，报5741.63点；恒生中国企业指数收跌0.22%，报9148.47 点。全日大市成交额为2834.62亿港元。 恒生指数成份股中38只上涨，49只下跌。其中快手上涨11.09%，信达生物上涨6.09%；周大福上涨5.13%，领涨蓝筹。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 快手-W | 1024 | 73.600 c | 7.350 | 11.09% | 98.98亿 | 15.09% | | 2 | 信达生物 | 1801 | 83.600 c | 4.800 | 6.09% | 15.08亿 | 9.64% | | 3 | 周大福 | 1929 | 13.110 c | 0.640 | 5.13% | 2.95亿 | ...

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a weak consolidation pattern with major indices under pressure, as the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 4000 points, closing down 0.39% at 4002.76 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.03% and 1.40% respectively, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped 1.42%, indicating significant adjustment pressure in growth sectors [1] - In contrast, the Hong Kong market showed relative stability, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.18% to 26696.41 points, and both the Hang Seng Tech Index and the China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.15% and 0.19% respectively [1] Sector Performance - The A-share market displayed notable structural characteristics, with policy-driven sectors performing well, particularly the photovoltaic equipment sector leading the gains, and the diamond cultivation (superhard materials) sector maintaining strength [2] - In the Shenwan first-level industries, retail (+1.43%), real estate (+0.81%), and steel (+0.62%) were among the top gainers, benefiting directly from consumer finance support and real estate policy expectations [2] - Conversely, the technology sectors, including telecommunications (-2.20%), electronics (-1.74%), and computers (-1.41%), experienced significant adjustments, with the computing hardware industry chain undergoing deep corrections [2] Driving Logic of Sector Movements - The driving logic behind sector movements can be interpreted through policy, capital, and market sentiment [3] - Policy measures such as "moderately loose" monetary policy and targeted initiatives for new energy consumption and affordable housing loans directly catalyzed the strength of photovoltaic, energy storage, and real estate sectors [3] - A-shares saw active capital shifting from high-volatility tech sectors to undervalued areas like consumption and real estate, while Hong Kong stocks focused more on policy benefits and stable returns, as reflected in the rise of the REITs index (+1.79%) and consumer index [3] Investment Strategy - The recent market environment has seen rapid rotation of hotspots, making it challenging for investors chasing short-term trends [4] - Investors are advised to maintain calm and patience, focusing on long-term opportunities rather than chasing every short-term hotspot [4] - Emphasizing the importance of holding quality assets with solid mid-to-long-term logic, even if purchased at temporary high points, is crucial for achieving returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to show volatility, with sectors such as banking and chemicals performing strongly, while dividend indices are collectively rising, indicating investor interest in high-dividend stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:00, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index increased by 0.1% [1] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) saw a net subscription exceeding 23 million units during the trading session [1] Group 2: Dividend Distribution - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) will conduct its fourth dividend distribution of the year, with investors receiving a dividend of 0.1 yuan for every 10 fund shares held [1] - The record date for the dividend is November 11, with the ex-dividend date on November 12, and the cash dividend payment date set for November 14 [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The index tracked by the ETF consists of 50 stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect that are liquid, consistently pay dividends, have a moderate dividend payout ratio, and exhibit low volatility [1] - The top three industries represented in the index are finance, energy, and real estate/construction, collectively accounting for nearly 60% of the index [1] - The current dividend yield of the index stands at 5.8% [1] Group 4: Fund Management - E Fund is noted as the only fund company offering low fee rates across all its dividend ETFs, with management fees set at 0.15% per year for its various dividend-focused products [1]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the Hang Seng Technology Index showed the highest revenue and net profit growth rates among major Hong Kong indices, with revenue growth at 14.43% and net profit growth at 16.18% [1][2] - Excluding Alibaba, JD Group, and Meituan, the net profit growth rates for the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index were -1.04%, 3.88%, and 25.34% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The materials, healthcare, and information technology sectors led in net profit growth rates, with the information technology sector showing a Q2 net profit growth of 29.67% [3][4] - The ROE (TTM) for the information technology sector increased by 2.44 percentage points to 13.18% compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector Performance - Non-essential consumer sector net profit growth significantly declined to 3.10% in Q2 2025 from 44.64% in Q1, with AI-driven companies performing well [4][5] - The media and entertainment sector saw a net profit growth of 32.27%, driven by AI business, with advertising and publishing sectors showing substantial increases [5] Group 4: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector's net profit growth was 5.02% in Q2 2025, recovering from a -2.56% decline in Q1, with securities and brokerage net profit growth at 73.80% [7] - The banking sector's net profit growth was -0.11%, indicating continued pressure on traditional banking profitability [7] Group 5: Healthcare Sector Performance - The healthcare sector's net profit growth reached 42.50% in Q2 2025, up from 26.47% in Q1, with significant improvements in ROE [6] Group 6: Energy and Materials Sector Performance - The energy sector experienced a net profit decline of 19.36% in Q2 2025, worsening from -12.63% in Q1 [8] - The materials sector showed strong performance with a net profit growth of 50.78%, supported by high ROE levels [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its performance in 2025, with a focus on various sectors including healthcare, non-essential consumer goods, and financial services [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy**: There is a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, with a probability exceeding 80% for two or more rate cuts by the end of the year. This is anticipated to lower the U.S. risk-free rate, attracting foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, thus providing liquidity support [1][2][5][6]. - **Sector Performance**: - The healthcare and non-essential consumer sectors have seen significant increases in trading activity in 2025, with healthcare nearly doubling in performance [3][9]. - The financial sector experienced a peak in trading volume in July but saw a decline in August. Despite this, it is the closest to breaking historical highs, with only a 3% gap remaining [3][13][14]. - Most sectors are still valued below the historical 50th percentile, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][11][12]. - **Market Valuation**: The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive, with high dividend yields providing a safety net for investors. Most sectors have a PE ratio below the 50th percentile, except for real estate, construction, and telecommunications, which are above this threshold [3][11][12]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The expectation is that the Hong Kong stock market will perform better over the next decade compared to the past ten years, with economic growth correlating positively with stock market returns. The market is anticipated to rebound ahead of the real estate sector during downturns [3][8][16]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Inflation Risks**: The Federal Reserve views the impact of tariffs as likely temporary, but there are concerns about rising wages and consumer inflation expectations that could pose long-term inflation risks. Current data suggests these risks are low [7]. - **Real Estate Sector Challenges**: The real estate and construction sectors are currently the furthest from historical highs and face challenges despite recent policy support aimed at stabilizing the market [15]. - **Investment Preferences**: There is a noted preference among large funds, such as insurance companies, for high dividend yield assets in a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of these investments [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong stock market and its various sectors.

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing adjustments, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index down by 0.5% as of 13:55 [1] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) continues to attract capital, with a net subscription of 25 million units after three consecutive days of net inflow [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that market risk appetite is expected to persist into August, although strong opposing assets may limit relative returns for high dividend sectors [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index consists of 50 liquid stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect that have a history of continuous dividends, moderate payout ratios, and low volatility, with the top three sectors being finance, energy, and real estate, accounting for nearly 60% [1] - The current dividend yield of the index is approximately 5.8% [1] - The management fee for the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) is only 0.15% per year, providing a low-cost option for investors to gain exposure to the high dividend sector in Hong Kong stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with the dividend sector showing resilience, particularly the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, which has seen a slight increase of 0.2% as of 11:00 AM [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index includes 50 stocks with good liquidity, consistent dividends, moderate payout ratios, and low volatility, with the top three sectors being finance, energy, and real estate, accounting for nearly 60% of the index [1] - The index currently has a dividend yield of approximately 5.8% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) has attracted significant capital, with over 1.5 billion yuan net inflow in the past month, bringing its total size to over 4 billion yuan, making it the largest among similar ETFs [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that the trend of market risk appetite is expected to continue into August, suggesting that while high dividend sectors may lack relative returns, some stable and potential high dividend stocks have become attractive due to their current yield value [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) offers one of the lowest management fees in the ETF market at 0.15% per year, facilitating low-cost investment in high dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market [1]

Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]