Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with a significant reduction in lead ingot supply due to production cuts in recycling plants, while demand continues to grow. [1][4] Supply Side Summary - Recycling plants are reducing production due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply, leading to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, despite strong demand. [1] - Overseas supply is expected to see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments and the resumption of operations at Vedanta-Zinc India and Aripuan mines. [1] - Domestic mining production is at a high level, but further increases are limited, maintaining high ore production in the short term. [1] - Raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees are continuously decreasing, with some smelting plants beginning winter stockpiling early. [1] Demand Side Summary - Demand for lead ingots is supported by increased battery demand from electric bicycles, which has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies. [3] - However, the automotive sector is facing challenges, with a slowdown in electric vehicle sales and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting overall demand for lead ingots. [3] - The end of the "export rush" in the automotive sector is expected to lead to a noticeable decline in battery exports in the fourth quarter. [3] - Overall, the demand for lead ingots is unlikely to see significant growth, and purchasing demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday. [3] Macroeconomic Summary - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact. [4] - Before October, the lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance, providing strong support for lead prices. [4] - As recycling companies gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply and demand may shift towards a looser balance, posing a risk of price correction. [4]

Supply Side - The recent reduction in production at recycling lead smelters due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply has led to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, while demand continues to grow [1] - Overseas supply may see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments, the end of maintenance at Vedanta-Zinc India, and the resumption of operations at the Aripuan? mine [1] - Domestic raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees continue to decrease, indicating that smelting plants are beginning to stockpile for winter [1] Demand Side - Increased demand for lead-acid batteries from electric bicycle manufacturers has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies, which in turn boosts lead ingot demand [2] - However, the automotive sector is experiencing a slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting lead ingot demand [2] - The trend of declining exports of lead-acid batteries is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand [2] Macro Perspective - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact [3] - Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance until October, providing strong support for lead prices [3] - As recycling lead enterprises gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply-demand balance may shift towards surplus, posing a risk of price correction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals have shown a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the upcoming National Day holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment may be stimulated. It is recommended to conduct buying hedging on dips, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 45.16 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by - 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by - 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by - 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained at 9,975 yuan/ton, waste white shells at 10,075 yuan/ton, and waste black shells at 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,085 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 48,758 lots, an increase of 24,388 lots. The position was 63,941 lots, an increase of 36,509 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17,190 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17,065 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,085 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat. Henan smelters mainly delivered long - term contracts. Some holders quoted at a discount of 150 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract, and some pre - sold goods for the National Day holiday next week. Hunan smelters also mainly delivered long - term contracts, with few quotes for spot sales. Traders quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract or 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract. Holders in Anhui and Jiangxi quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. The lead futures price weakened slightly after sideways trading. Smelters' quotes were relatively firm. After the pre - holiday stockpiling of downstream battery enterprises, there was only a small amount of low - price procurement, and the trading in some markets was light [2] Inventory - On September 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week. As of September 23, the LME lead inventory was 219,975 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary lead ore's apparent inventory accumulation rate is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has declined again. Raw material shortages are suppressing primary smelting operations. On the secondary lead side, the price of scrap materials has dropped, the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and operations have slightly improved. The downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years. After the pressure on battery inventory has decreased, downstream purchases have slightly increased. Both the domestic lead ingot factory inventory and social inventory have declined. After a long period of horizontal movement, the monthly spread of Shanghai lead has fluctuated upwards. It is expected that Shanghai lead will operate strongly in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.08% at 17,172 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 96,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 1 to $2,011/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 164,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. On the secondary side, the scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. In July 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,003,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In August 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 156,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 13.9% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to August, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,097,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.8%. In July 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,816,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and TC**: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation and Output**: The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. In August 2025, China's primary lead production was 324,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.9% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,533,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.8% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Material and Weekly Production**: The scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In August 2025, China's secondary lead production was 320,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 0.7%. From January to August, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,571,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.2% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4,516,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation and Apparent Demand**: The operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06%. In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 4,478,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In July 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 20.8925 million, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In August 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway has driven the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the relatively high operation rate of starting batteries. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 38,100 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead turned slightly net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bullish trend [80].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's lead production in August 2025 reached 667,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% despite some production cuts due to maintenance and raw material shortages [1] Group 1: Electrolytic Lead Production - In August, domestic electrolytic lead production increased as medium and large electrolytic lead smelting enterprises in Central, North, and East China resumed operations after maintenance [1] - Although some smelting companies faced production cuts due to maintenance and insufficient ore supply, the overall electrolytic lead output saw a rise [1] Group 2: Recycled Lead Production - Recycled lead production also increased due to the resumption of operations at several smelting plants and the release of new capacity, despite some companies facing raw material shortages and significant losses leading to production halts [1] - The report indicates that while some large smelting plants in East and North China plan to reduce or halt production, the overall recycled lead output remains positively impacted by new capacity coming online [1] Group 3: Outlook for September - Looking ahead to September, SMM notes an increase in maintenance among electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, which may offset some production declines due to resumed operations in Northeast and North China [1] - The supply of waste batteries in North China is expected to be tight during the September 3 military parade, which may lead to limited raw material availability for smelting plants until mid-September [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of primary and secondary lead has tightened, and the lead price has rebounded to over 17,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply supplement of imported crude lead and the risk of the lead price rising and then falling [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% to 16,775 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.83% to 17,040 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.64% to 2,017.5 US dollars/ton [10] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -90 US dollars/dry ton. The smelter's profit recovered to 18.9 yuan/ton as of September 5 [27] 2. Maintenance and Production Cuts, Phased Tightening of Primary Lead Supply - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 66.68%. Some smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia had maintenance and production cuts, while the production in other regions remained stable [28][33] 3. Multiple Smelters Shut Down, Secondary Lead Operating Rate Dropped to a Low Level - As of September 12, the average price of waste batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The losses of large and small secondary lead enterprises improved to -110 yuan/ton and -322 yuan/ton respectively [41][47] - As of September 11, secondary lead raw material inventory was 129,450 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,300 tons. The operating rate decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 22.3%, and the weekly production decreased to 32,100 tons [50][53] 4. Buy on Dips, Pay Attention to Downstream Pre-holiday Stockpiling - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 72.14%. The orders for energy storage batteries were stable, those for electric bicycle batteries increased steadily, while those for automobile batteries and the battery replacement market were relatively weak [60] 5. Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of September 5, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the import profit was -306.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [72] 6. Partial Factory Warehouses Transferred to Social Warehouses - As of September 11, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 67,000 tons, an increase; the factory warehouse of primary lead's main deliverable brands was 9,550 tons, a decrease [84] - As of September 12, SHFE refined lead inventory was 66,600 tons, a slight decrease; as of September 11, LME inventory was 229,600 tons, a decrease [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is rated as neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] - Supply logic has marginally improved, which will support prices. The production of primary lead is under pressure, and secondary lead enterprises are in a continuous loss state. Some regions are stockpiling lead concentrates for winter, intensifying the raw material shortage. The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered, and the finished product inventory of some battery factories has decreased [6] - From a supply - demand perspective, domestic lead inventories have slightly increased. The long - position to inventory ratio of the SHFE lead contract for October is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. Overall, the supply shortage of lead concentrates and the marginal improvement in consumption, along with the enhanced expectation of Fed rate cuts and domestic favorable policies, will support the price in the short - term. In unilateral trading, existing long positions should be held, and new long positions should wait for a good entry point. There are still opportunities for positive spreads in SHFE lead term contracts [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest - **Price**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The closing price of the LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1988, with a weekly increase of 0.00% [7] - **Spread**: The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread increased by 2.32 to - 41.16. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 30 to - 40 [7] - **Inventory**: The total lead inventory in five regions slightly increased from 66,100 tons on September 4th to 67,000 tons on September 11th. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5395 to 59,485 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 18,625 to 229,575 tons [6][7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 63,429 lots, an increase of 29,437 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 52,188 lots, an increase of 2762 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 6480 lots, an increase of 870 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6194 lots from the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrates**: The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate remained at - 90 dollars/ton this week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton. Some regions are stockpiling lead concentrates for winter, intensifying the raw material shortage [6][7] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, with smelters in Henan under continuous maintenance and a smelter in Qinghai about to start maintenance. Secondary lead enterprises have been in a loss state, but the profit situation has started to improve, and some enterprises in Anhui and Hubei have resumed production [6] - **Scrap Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The price of scrap batteries has been under continuous pressure, and the smelting profit situation has started to improve. The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises shows a certain trend [38] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The consumption peak season of lead - acid batteries fell short of expectations, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises only increased seasonally. The consumption of lead - acid batteries has recovered, the finished product inventory of some battery factories has decreased, and the operating rate of large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally [6] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead shows a certain trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles also presents corresponding data trends [47]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand, but there are still strong expectations on the demand side. Although the market has declined today, the downside space is limited. Considering the approaching Fed rate cut and demand expectations, it may maintain a range-bound operation in the short term [10] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The table shows the daily quotes of Shanghai lead futures on September 10, 2025, including details of different delivery months such as previous settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest/change. The total trading volume is 66,980 lots, the total trading amount is 564,208.60, and the total open interest is 89,999 lots with an increase of 3,876 lots [5] 2. Spot Market - Today's spot price is 16,700 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day's spot price was 16,750 yuan/ton. Today's basis is -95 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day's basis was -180 yuan/ton [7] 3. Influencing Factors - **Macroeconomic**: In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 [9] - **Supply Side**: For primary lead, smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia started maintenance, offsetting the increase from the resumption of production of a smelter in Liaoning. For secondary lead, the raw material supply remained tight, smelters were still in a loss state, and the scale of production cuts expanded [9] - **Demand Side**: Recently, the consumption performance of lead - acid batteries was not prominent, and the seasonal consumption in the traditional peak season did not materialize. However, the implementation of new national standards in September and the effectiveness of anti - dumping sanctions tariffs in the Middle East in September may have a certain impact on the export of starting lead - acid batteries [9] 4. Market Outlook - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, but there are strong expectations on the demand side. The market may maintain a range - bound operation in the short term [10]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - During the week from September 1st to September 5th, 2025, the price of Shanghai lead futures generally maintained a high - level range operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - The price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated repeatedly around the upper part of the range during the week. As of the weekend, the weekly closing price of the main contract Shanghai lead 2510 (pb2510) reached 16,900 points, with a maximum price of 16,950 and a minimum price of 16,780. The position was 49,426 lots, an increase of about 244 lots compared with the previous week [3]. 1.2 Variety Market - In the weekly market of Shanghai lead futures, the contract price of Shanghai lead (pb2509) was the lowest, the price change ranges of Shanghai lead (pb2601) and Shanghai lead (pb2603) were the smallest, the contract price of Shanghai lead (pb2608) was the highest, and the price change range of Shanghai lead (pb2606) was the largest [5]. 1.3 Related Market - From the observation of the Shanghai lead option market, among the contracts with the exercise price between 14,800 and 17,000 points, the call option at 17,000 points had the largest trading volume and open interest [6]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The spot price on Friday was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the spot price last Friday was 16,650 yuan/ton. The basis on Friday was - 225 yuan/ton, and the basis last Friday was - 230 yuan/ton. The weekly basis narrowed [9]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Latest News - Macroeconomically, in China, the retail industry index reached an 8 - month high in September. Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls data in August fell far short of expectations, increasing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year. Trump exempted key commodities such as gold from tariffs. Fundamentally, on the supply side, for primary lead, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions started maintenance, offsetting the increase from the resumption of production of smelters in Liaoning; for recycled lead, the raw material supply remained tight, smelters were still in a loss state, and the scale of smelter production cuts expanded. On the demand side, the recent consumption of lead - acid batteries was not prominent, and the seasonal consumption in the traditional peak season did not materialize. However, the new national standard will be implemented in September, and the anti - dumping sanctions tariffs in the Middle East will take effect in September, which may have a certain impact on the export of starting lead - acid batteries [10]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased again. Fundamentally, the supply is still in short supply, and on the demand side, the peak season has not materialized yet, but there is still a strong expectation. In the short term, due to the strong macro and fundamental expectations, the price will run strongly [11].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market shows mixed performance, with lead futures experiencing slight declines amid macroeconomic adjustments and supply-demand dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - U.S. employment data has been significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs over the past 12 months [1] Supply Dynamics - There is a relative shortage of upstream lead concentrate and waste lead-acid batteries, which limits the operational capacity of primary smelting plants [1] - Continuous losses in recycled lead production are leading to reduced output in recycling plants, particularly in Anhui [1] Demand Factors - The operating rate of lead-acid batteries has slightly increased due to improved orders for complete vehicles, although demand for electric bicycles and automotive replacements remains weak [1] - Export orders are declining as Middle Eastern tariff sanctions are set to take effect [1] Market Outlook - Domestic primary lead production is recovering, while recycled lead enterprises are facing increased production cuts due to losses [1] - The performance of downstream battery consumption during the peak season is generally underwhelming, putting pressure on lead price rebounds [1]