1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by the release of demand. The fundamentals may show a stage of slightly reduced supply and gradually increasing demand, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.23% and an amplitude of 2.93%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: Affected by output decline and weak demand, the US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The ISM manufacturing index dropped by 0.4 to 48.7 [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate. It is expected that China's export volume will increase by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years, and the forecast for China's real GDP growth rate in 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5% [4]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Materials**: The TC fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly on a weekly basis but remained in the negative range. The tight supply of raw materials still strongly supported the cost of copper prices [4]. - **Supply**: Due to year - end centralized maintenance and tight supplies of copper ore and scrap copper, the production capacity of smelters was limited, and the supply of refined copper in China might tighten [4]. - **Demand**: The recent decline in copper prices released some demand that was previously suppressed by the rapid increase in copper prices. Some consumer enterprises launched promotional policies to boost downstream new projects and orders, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 7, 2025, the basis of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 485 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 207,136 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 51,183 lots [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 575 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the inter - month spread of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Net Position**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper futures was - 25,642 lots, an increase of 4,447 lots compared with last week [21]. 3.3 Option Market - As of November 7, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option trading volume was 0.772, a week - on - week increase of 0.0401 [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Price and Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas (Jiangxi) was 76,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee for crude copper in the south was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Import Volume and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 3,217.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938.06 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 461,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [42]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [48][49]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 150 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 10,759 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,684 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 202,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons [52]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [58]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid and power source construction increased by 9.9% and 0.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [69]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was a surplus of 256,500 tons [74][75].

宏观产业利好共振，铜价冲高震荡 11月铜月报 2025-11-7 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 10月铜价大幅上涨，月涨幅4.69%，截至10月31日沪铜收盘价为87010元/吨。中美元首会谈叠加贸易磋商达成协议给市场带来信心，中美关税风险减弱， 国内十五五规划建议提振市场情绪。俄乌冲突停火预期，叠加美联储降息提振有色金属价格，宏观利好整体释放。基本面上，铜矿紧缺扰动下支撑中长期铜 价，国内电解铜产出继续下滑。10月冶炼厂检修叠加阳极铜较难采购影响下国内电解铜产量环比继续下滑，有色协会产能天花板倡议下铜供应有减弱预期。 国内消费因高铜价受到抑制，下游需求整体偏弱，但长期新能源、电力及AI算力需求支撑仍存。宏观利好释放叠加基本面支撑较强，铜价整体偏强运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25-09-25 25-09-19 25-09-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. After the reduction of interest rates and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes may be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot TC of copper ore stays at a low level. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper prices gradually moves up. The downstream demand for copper is resilient, and there are still many purchase orders after price declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not substantially relieved, the demand is weak, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. Pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea's bauxite, the impact of domestic environmental policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality in the short - term. The 21500 yuan/ton pressure level is crucial. If the inventory continues to accumulate, there is a risk of price correction to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise and then fall. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the demand shows a mild recovery. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum, procurement costs, and inventory depletion [4]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. The supply of zinc is generally loose, but the subsequent production increase may be limited. The demand has no extraordinary performance, and the LME's low inventory causes squeezing risks, which support zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and relatively strong in the short - term, with the main reference range of 22300 - 23000 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement of supply within the year is limited. The demand is weak, and the contribution of new fields such as AI and photovoltaics is small. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Pay attention to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a weak and volatile state. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, while that from Indonesia is relatively loose. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for ternary materials has limited sustainability. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is running weakly. The supply pressure still exists, the demand is not significantly boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12500 - 13000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel supply [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is weakly volatile. Although the short - term fundamentals are strong, the trading logic has switched, and the news and capital drives are stronger. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 78000 - 82000 yuan [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.45% to 85335 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The premiums of other copper types also changed to varying degrees. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.20%, and the import profit and loss improved by 163.21 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons (-2.62%), and in September, the import volume increased by 7 million tons (26.50%). The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased by 7.67%, and the social inventory increased by 8.46% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.65% to 21300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different regions of alumina showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 170 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39%, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, and in September, the import volume increased by 13.57%. The开工 rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and its regional varieties decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.23% to 0.47%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions decreased. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 35 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The开工 rates of recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while that of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 21.34 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, and in September, the import volume decreased by 11.61%, while the export volume increased by 696.78%. The开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, while that of die - casting zinc alloy decreased slightly. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 1.10% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.44% to 281300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 12.16%. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 0.34%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the refined tin production decreased by 31.71%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.65%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.11% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.70% to 120950 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 6.68%. - **Electrolytic Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrolytic nickel decreased to varying degrees. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.48% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, with the Foshan price decreasing by 0.78%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 2.35%. - **Raw Material Price**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, with the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreasing by 0.22%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.55% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the prices of CIF battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea also decreased. The lithium - spodumene concentrate price decreased by 1.18%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2511 - 2601 increased by 260 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, the demand increased by 8.70%, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90%. The capacity increased by 0.80%, and the开工 rate increased by 1.82% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The global copper market has entered a phase of high demand, leading to rising copper prices, benefiting companies like Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Luoyang Molybdenum. However, the former "Copper King," Wang Wenyin and his Zhengwei Group, are facing severe financial difficulties, including debt and legal issues, marking a stark contrast to their previous success [1]. Group 1: Debt Crisis - Zhengwei Group, despite its past glory, has been embroiled in debt issues, with over 80 lawsuits since 2022 involving amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [5][18]. - The company was listed as a dishonest executor by a court due to a 4.362 million yuan dispute, leading to multiple asset auctions and operational halts [5][18]. - Wang Wenyin and his wife have both been included in the list of dishonest executors, further complicating the group's financial situation [5]. Group 2: Company Background - Zhengwei Group, founded by Wang Wenyin, achieved significant milestones, including over 720 billion yuan in revenue in 2022, ranking fourth among China's private enterprises [3][5]. - The company has substantial copper reserves, claiming to control approximately 4.29% of global copper reserves and one-third of China's reserves [3][5]. - Wang Wenyin's entrepreneurial journey began in 1995, leading to the establishment of Zhengwei Group, which later became a major player in the copper industry [7][8]. Group 3: Historical Successes - Wang Wenyin capitalized on crises, such as the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2003 SARS outbreak, to expand Zhengwei Group's operations and acquire copper resources [10][11]. - The company thrived during the 2008 financial crisis by acquiring copper processing firms in the U.S. and Europe, establishing a global presence [11]. - Zhengwei Group's growth was marked by strategic investments and acquisitions, positioning it as a leader in the copper industry [11]. Group 4: Recent Developments - Following the peak of its success, Zhengwei Group began to face challenges, including a downturn in traditional copper-related industries and failed investments in new sectors like semiconductors [16][18]. - Many of Zhengwei's industrial parks have stalled, with reports indicating that some facilities are now abandoned or underutilized [16]. - The group's significant investments in Evergrande have resulted in substantial losses, compounding its financial troubles [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. has successfully acquired the exploration rights for the Jiguan Mountain-Hucun copper-gold-molybdenum mine for 3.204 billion yuan, aligning with its strategic focus on the copper industry and enhancing its resource reserves [1] Group 1 - The company won the exploration rights on November 4, 2025, for a total of 3.204 billion yuan [1] - The exploration rights are located near the Dongguashan copper mine in Tongling City, Anhui Province [1] - This acquisition is part of the company's strategy to strengthen its core business in the copper industry and improve its sustainable development capabilities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas market liquidity is tightening, and the US dollar index is strong, suppressing copper prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may inhibit demand. The subsequent focus is on demand changes and overseas liquidity, with the main contract supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of correction if inventories continue to accumulate [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices will be oscillating and relatively strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward space, with the main contract ranging from 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. With a strong fundamental outlook, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - Macro sentiment is stable, and cost has some support, but the overall fundamentals are flat. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term strong fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has switched recently. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 76000 - 82000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum was 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day [6]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month. In September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was 74 dollars/ton, up 85% from the previous day [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month, and SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month. Imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25% from the previous day [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. Imports were 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month. The total inventory was 84234 tons, down 10.90% month - on - month [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 宏观利好落地，有色板块先扬后抑 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-03 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 有色金属价格监测 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 02 PART TWO 铜（CU） 逻辑及策略 | | | | 铜产业链逻辑及策略 标题行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | 宏观因素 | 偏空 | （1）中美领导人于韩国会晤，双方确认吉隆坡磋商成果，当前来看，双方近期谈判取得的成效较为显著，短期中美贸易摩擦风 | | | | | 险有望进一步降温。（2）美联储如期降息25bp ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Benefits Released, Copper Prices Soar and Fluctuate - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Report Source: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile under the influence of macro and fundamental factors. The main contract of Shanghai copper may operate in the range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see, or conduct short - term trading within the range [7]. - The tight supply of copper concentrate and the expectation of further tightening in the future continue. The long - term demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, but the high copper prices in the short term significantly suppress downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The shortage of copper mines persists, and refined copper production continues to decline. As of October 31, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 461,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 42.26 US dollars per ton, reaching a historical low. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. Eight smelters were under maintenance in October, affecting the production of electrolytic copper [5]. - **Demand Side**: High copper prices suppress demand, and the operating rate declines month - on - month. As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. The high copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchasing sentiment. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year; the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a consensus; China's official manufacturing PMI in October fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; the eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations; the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy [16]. - **Industrial News Overview**: Teck Resources' Q3 copper production decreased year - on - year; Antofagasta's Q3 copper production decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; Trump revoked Biden's copper smelter emission limit order; ICSG warned that the copper market will face a shortage in 2026; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased year - on - year; Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% year - on - year and lowered its 2025 production forecast [18]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper widened. During the week, the spot discount of Shanghai copper stabilized at a low level, and then converged as purchasing sentiment increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed during the week. LME copper maintained a small discount, and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper remained stable [25]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 73.76%, while the open interest decreased by 6.29% week - on - week. As of October 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.40% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The shortage of copper mines persists, and processing fees have reached a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production continues to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [36]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [43].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S. monetary policy, U.S.-China relations, and the implications for global capital markets, particularly focusing on technology and manufacturing sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy** - After the October rate cut, Powell's hawkish stance on inflation reduced expectations for further cuts in December, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3][4] - The probability of a December rate cut decreased from over 90% to around 60% due to persistent inflation and trade uncertainties [3] 2. **Impact of the Fourth Plenary Session and U.S.-China Meeting** - The domestic capital market showed muted performance post the Fourth Plenary Session, with weak economic data and restrained fiscal policy [1][5] - The U.S.-China meeting indicated a shift in competition towards technology and security, moving away from explicit restrictions to competitive investments [1][9] 3. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics** - The trade war aims to reshape global supply chains, with the U.S. using tariffs to shift production to third countries, benefiting all parties involved [10][11] - The trade conflict is expected to gradually ease by 2025, with technology investments becoming the main pricing driver in global capital markets [12] 4. **China's Manufacturing Sector Evolution** - China's high-end manufacturing has seen significant upgrades, with production shifting to other countries as GDP per capita rises [13] - This rapid upgrade in the industrial chain is a key reason for the swift resolution of recent tariff disputes [13] 5. **Future Economic Policies and Market Predictions** - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is crucial for domestic asset performance, with expectations of limited policy changes in November [6][7] - The focus on technology and high-quality growth will dominate China's economic planning for the next five years [16][17] 6. **Commodity Market Outlook** - Copper prices are expected to perform well due to increased demand from a new industrial revolution, with significant price increases anticipated in 2025 [20][22] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing monetary easing, despite potential volatility in 2026 as competition shifts [23] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Global Capital Market Trends** - The transition from uncertainty to a new production order post the U.S.-China meeting is expected to improve the investment environment in 2026 [14] - The focus on technology investments will significantly influence asset pricing and market dynamics [19] 2. **U.S. Midterm Elections Impact** - The 2026 midterm elections will likely shift U.S. policy focus back to domestic economic issues, emphasizing social welfare and inflation concerns [15] 3. **Debt Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to present trading opportunities in Q4 2025, with a cautious outlook for 2026 as risks are anticipated to rise [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility, reflecting a fierce battle among market participants, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic concerns [1][3]. Supply Dynamics - After reaching a record high of $11,200 per ton, copper prices fell to $11,050 per ton, marking a 1.19% decline in one day, highlighting the current market's division between supply tightness and demand concerns [3]. - The global copper supply is under pressure, particularly due to the Grasberg copper mine incident in Indonesia, which is expected to reduce supply by 500,000 tons, accounting for 2% of global production [3][4]. - Global visible copper inventories are at historically low levels, with LME copper stocks dropping below 140,000 tons, increasing the risk of short squeezes for short sellers [4]. Demand Trends - Structural expansion in demand is evident, with AI computing and electric vehicles significantly increasing copper consumption, outpacing traditional uses [6][9]. - The high copper prices are beginning to suppress demand, as downstream industries show caution in their purchasing decisions, particularly in the cable manufacturing sector [7][10]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently divided, with bullish arguments focusing on ongoing supply constraints and structural changes in demand, while bearish sentiments are driven by fears of economic slowdown and high prices dampening demand [9][10]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that concerns over supply crises may be overstated, predicting copper prices will hover between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton, with limited potential for sustained breakthroughs above this range [6][10]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that while short-term fluctuations will continue, the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to persistent supply disruptions and strong demand from new energy sectors [10][12]. - The copper market is expected to face a tightening supply situation by 2026, with significant implications for pricing and investment strategies [10][12]. - Key signals to watch include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and the global copper supply situation, as these factors could trigger the next market movement [15].