Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the White House regarding a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to $4.33 per pound, reflecting a major shift in market expectations and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined cathode copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff [3][4]. - This targeted tariff approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, leading to a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [2][4]. - The announcement has caused a reversal in market sentiment, with many traders who anticipated a broader tariff now facing unexpected losses [4][6]. Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since February, U.S. copper inventories have surged from under 100,000 tons to approximately 250,000 tons by July 30, driven by preemptive imports in anticipation of tariffs [6][7]. - In contrast, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories have decreased significantly, from about 270,900 tons in February to around 90,000 tons by early July, indicating a stark divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [6][7]. - The influx of copper into the U.S. is expected to continue, with projections indicating that total copper imports for the year could reach 1.36 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 900,000 tons [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruption - The new tariff policy is likely to disrupt global copper supply chains, pushing major copper-exporting countries like Chile to redirect their shipments towards Asia and Europe [8][9]. - The increased costs associated with tariffs may lead industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors, to seek domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [8][9]. - The overall impact of the tariff on the copper market could lead to a reevaluation of demand dynamics, particularly under the looming threat of a potential U.S. economic downturn [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products by the U.S. government has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to a low of $4.33 per pound, triggering a mass exit of bullish investors from the market [1][2][3]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices as market expectations shifted [2][3]. - The new tariff structure contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, resulting in a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper inventory surged to 250,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a significant shift in supply dynamics [7]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased by over 64% since mid-February, highlighting contrasting trends in global copper supply [7]. Price Fluctuations - The price of COMEX copper futures saw a year-to-date increase of over 40% before the tariff announcement, which has since narrowed to 8.87% as of July 31 [8]. - The volatility in copper prices is expected to continue, with potential downward pressure due to excess inventory and changing market conditions [12]. Supply Chain Disruption - The U.S. tariff policy is anticipated to disrupt global copper supply chains, with potential shifts in sourcing strategies for industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors [9]. - Major copper-exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies towards Asian and European markets, further affecting global copper supply and demand balance [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper import volume could reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons, which may lead to an oversupply situation in the market [8]. - The long-term implications of the tariff on U.S. domestic copper demand and pricing strategies remain uncertain, as companies may seek to adjust their supply chains in response to the new tariff structure [10].

根据美国白宫网站当地时间7月30日发布的事实清单，美国总统特朗普当天签署公告，从8月1日起将对进口的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的 关税。7月30日当天，纽约商品交易所的铜期货价格一天内暴跌20%。 根据白宫网站发布的事实清单，从8月1日起，将对包括铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板等进口的铜半成品以及包括管件、电缆、连接器、电气元件等铜含量高的衍 生品统一征收50%的关税。但铜矿石、精矿、阴极铜等主要产品不在加税范围内。白宫表示，这些进口铜产品关税不会与输美汽车的额外关税叠加。如果相 关产品同时属于汽车类别，将适用的是汽车进口税，而非铜关税。 彭博社指出，特朗普政府虽然努力推动重振美国制造业，但征收高额铜关税将给自身制造业带来沉重的打击，因为美国工厂购买的近一半铜依赖海外供应 商。美国政府相关数据显示，智利、加拿大和墨西哥是2024年美国精炼铜、铜合金和铜产品的最大供应商。 美媒记者：对铜征收关税影响美消费品价格 美媒分析称，这一决定是美国政府给铜市带来的最新一次重大冲击。今年年初，当美国总统特朗普首次提及可能征收关税时，导致美国铜价大幅上涨，并引 发了各方争相将铜运往美国以避开关税的热潮。7月早些时候，特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to the U.S. government's unexpected tariff policy, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices and a mass exit of long positions from the market [1][2][4]. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while exempting refined copper and scrap copper, which contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products [2][3][4]. - This targeted approach has led to a rapid liquidation of previously accumulated copper inventories in the U.S., as the market adjusts to the new tariff structure [4][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures plummeted to $4.33 per pound, a 21% drop from the previous close, while London and Shanghai copper prices also fell by 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively [1][2]. - The market had previously anticipated a broader tariff application, leading to a surge in copper imports into the U.S. to capitalize on expected price increases [10][12]. Inventory Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventories reached 250,000 tons, a significant increase from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a major shift in supply dynamics due to tariff expectations [9][10]. - In contrast, LME copper inventories have decreased sharply, highlighting a divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper market will face downward pressure on prices due to the potential for excess inventory to be re-exported to international markets [10][12]. - The tariff policy is expected to disrupt global copper supply chains, with major copper-exporting countries potentially redirecting their shipments to Asia and Europe [12][13]. Industry Implications - The tariff's impact on copper prices may increase costs in sectors such as automotive and renewable energy, prompting companies to consider domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [12]. - The long-term effects of the tariff policy on the copper market will depend on how well downstream industries can adapt to the new pricing environment and whether they can mitigate the impact of increased costs [12][13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - 232 tariff exemption for refined copper, copper prices may fluctuate downward, but the decline may not be smooth, with support expected in the range of 76,000 - 77,000 yuan/ton [5][8][15] - The supply of copper concentrates is facing challenges, with the growth rate falling short of expectations, and the tight supply situation is difficult to ease [29][39] - Overseas consumption remains resilient in Q3, but uncertainty increases in Q4; domestic demand is differentiated, with some sectors showing growth and others being dragged down [6][15][73] - The import window may open periodically, presenting a good positive arbitrage opportunity, but in the long - term, it may remain closed [8][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Copper Market Overview - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1, excluding copper ores and cathode copper, causing a 18% plunge in US copper prices [5][14] - The COMEX - LME spread quickly converged to 2% - 3%, and if US copper is re - exported, the LME inventory accumulation rate may accelerate [5][14] - Due to the 232 tariff policy, the pre - consumption of copper globally has advanced, with overseas demand growing steadily and domestic demand in China and emerging economies weakening marginally [6][15] II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The expectation of the 232 tariff policy led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions, pushing up prices, which then fell back after the policy was announced [11] - The抢 - import of copper in the US from April to May led to a shortage of supply in non - US regions and a decrease in LME inventory. After the 232 policy was expected to be implemented, the LME inventory started to increase [12] 2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US economy remains resilient, and the impact of the tariff policy depends on whether the US reaches a settlement with other countries [13][15] - In terms of supply, the supply of copper concentrates faces challenges, and domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production, while overseas smelters may further reduce production [13][14] - In terms of demand, overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand is differentiated but will not collapse [15] - In terms of prices, copper prices face downward pressure, but the decline may not be smooth [15] - In terms of ratios, the import window may open periodically, but will remain closed in the long - term [16] III. Copper Mine Disturbances Increase, Supply Tightness Difficult to Alleviate 1. Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Rate Falls Short of Expectations - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. Some major mining companies have lowered their production expectations, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected [29] - The increase in domestic imports of copper concentrates in the first half of the year is due to the unstable production of overseas smelters, but overall, the supply of copper mines is still tight, and it is difficult for processing fees to rise significantly [39] 2. Global Scrap Copper Supply Mismatch, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - After the reciprocal 10% tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of US scrap copper did not decrease, but the export destination changed. China's imports from the US decreased significantly [40] - China has increased imports from Thailand and Europe to replace US scrap copper, but the import growth rate has declined, and the difficulty of importing scrap copper has increased [41] 3. Global Refined Copper Production Situation - Overseas smelters have increased production cuts due to factors such as low processing fees, copper concentrate shortages, and high costs. Some major smelters have stopped production or plan to cut production [46] - Domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production due to high sulfuric acid prices. The production of electrolytic copper in the first half of 2025 increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year [47][48] IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption Remains Resilient in Q3, Uncertainty Increases in Q4 - The US economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession has decreased significantly. The impact of the tariff policy on the US manufacturing industry is not obvious [53][54] - The global manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, with most developed countries showing an upward trend, while China and some emerging economies declined [54] 2. Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to drag down copper consumption. The decline in construction completion area leads to a decrease in copper demand, and the impact of policy rate cuts on the real estate market is limited in the short - term [73][74] - **Power Grid and Power Source**: In the first half of 2025, grid investment increased year - on - year, and power source investment increased significantly. However, the wire and cable industry was affected by the off - season and high copper prices, and the export situation was different in different regions [80][83] - **Air - conditioning Market**: In the first half of 2025, the air - conditioning market showed growth, but the export market declined. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to decline, and the copper consumption will increase slightly [91][92] - **Automobile Market**: The overall automobile market is stable, but the profitability is declining. The sales of fuel - powered vehicles are declining, and the substitution of new - energy vehicles for fuel - powered vehicles is the general trend [100] 3. "Anti - involution" Involves the Automobile Industry, Wind and Solar Power Generation Exceeds Expectations - **New - energy Vehicles**: The global new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. China leads the market, but the growth rate has slowed down in June - August. The copper consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase [103][111] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: In the first half of 2025, China's photovoltaic and wind power new - installed capacity increased significantly year - on - year. The new - installed capacity of global photovoltaic and wind power is also expected to increase, and the copper consumption will increase accordingly [113][115] 4. Consumption Summary - Overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand weakens marginally but does not collapse. The growth of new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and wind power will drive copper consumption, while the real estate market will continue to drag down copper consumption [139] V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, there was a shortage of 130,000 tons of copper concentrates, and in 2025, the supply gap is expected to widen to 830,000 tons. In 2024, there was a surplus of 330,000 tons of refined copper, and in 2025, the surplus is expected to be 280,000 tons [143] - In July 2025, the domestic refined copper production and apparent consumption increased, but the year - on - year growth rate decreased due to the high base in 2024 [143]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, which has surprised the market and led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [2]. - Copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs, indicating that the cost of copper imports may not increase [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowing sharply [2][5]. - The abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper has collapsed, reducing the incentive for traders to import copper from other regions [5]. Group 3: Future Implications - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, imports may be limited, potentially leading to re-exports [5]. - Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with a phased approach suggested for 2027 and 2028 [6]. - The U.S. administration is also taking measures to support the domestic copper industry, including requirements for domestic sales of high-quality scrap copper [6].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market has shifted from a "premium frenzy" to a "sell-off for safety" as traders exit their long positions in response to unexpected tariff policies from the U.S. government [1][3]. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while exempting refined cathode copper and scrap copper [3][4]. - This targeted approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, leading to a rapid liquidation of accumulated inventories in the U.S. [4][5]. Market Reactions - COMEX copper futures plummeted to $4.33 per pound, a drop of 21% from the previous close [2]. - The London and Shanghai copper markets also experienced declines of 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively, indicating a widespread market reaction [3]. Inventory Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventory reached 250,000 tons, a significant increase from less than 100,000 tons in February [9]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a sharp decline in copper inventory, dropping over 64% from mid-February to early July [9]. Future Supply Chain Adjustments - The tariff policy is expected to disrupt global copper supply chains, potentially leading to a shift in sourcing strategies for industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy [11]. - Major copper-exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies to Asian and European markets, further affecting global supply-demand balance [11]. Price Forecasts - Analysts predict that the influx of copper into the U.S. could lead to downward pressure on prices, with potential re-exports of the accumulated inventory back to international markets [10]. - The anticipated increase in U.S. copper imports for the year is projected to reach 1.36 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 900,000 tons [10]. Market Volatility - The copper market is experiencing high volatility, with the Shanghai bonded zone's copper price dropping to 69,768 yuan per ton, a decrease of 893 yuan [12]. - Companies are advised to closely monitor price differentials between COMEX, LME, and Shanghai copper to manage risks effectively [12].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].

Group 1: Tariff Decisions and Agreements - The U.S. is set to implement significant tariffs on various countries, with a 15% tariff on South Korea and a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1 [1][2][4] - A comprehensive trade agreement has been reached with South Korea, involving $350 billion in orders for U.S. controlled investment projects and $100 billion in liquefied natural gas purchases [2] - Brazil will face a total tariff of 50%, with a 40% increase on certain products, excluding specific categories like wood pulp and oil [3] Group 2: Impact on Copper Industry - A 50% tariff will be imposed on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, which may significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers [5][6] - The U.S. imported copper worth $17 billion in 2024, with Chile, Canada, and Peru being the top suppliers, highlighting the importance of copper in various industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1, which may significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers and impact the manufacturing sector negatively [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all copper imports starting August 1, excluding raw copper and copper scrap from the "232 clause" or reciprocal tariffs [1]. - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the exclusion of the main refined copper import form from the tariff plan, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% within minutes [2]. Group 3: Domestic Processing and Export Restrictions - The White House has mandated that 25% of high-quality copper scrap and raw copper products must be sold domestically, although this restriction is not expected to have a significant short-term impact, as approximately 40% of U.S. copper scrap and 75% of copper concentrate are already processed domestically [2].