Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]

Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongmin Resources is involved in the mining and processing of lithium and copper, with ongoing projects in Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe [2][4][8]. Key Points Industry and Company Developments - Zhongmin Resources plans to upgrade a 25,000-ton smelting line, expected to take four months, increasing capacity to 30,000 tons by year-end [2][4]. - The company aims to establish a 10,000-ton lithium sulfate production line by the end of the year to reduce costs [2][5]. - The Namibian copper smelting plant will cease operations in Q3 due to losses, with personnel redirected to the germanium smelting plant [2][7]. - The Zambian copper project is on track for production in the second half of 2026, with a goal to reach full capacity by 2027 [2][8]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% to 20% over the next three years, with capital expenditures projected at $1 billion, funded through internal resources and bank loans [4][29][32]. - The company reported a first-quarter shipment of 9,000 tons and anticipates total shipments of approximately 45,000 tons for the year [3]. Cost Management and Pricing - The CIF cost of spodumene from the Bikita mine is approximately $500, with smelting fees between 17,000 to 18,000 RMB [10]. - The company aims to reduce total costs to below 60,000 RMB, as current lithium carbonate prices have fallen to this level [11][12]. - The industry is experiencing pricing pressures, with costs closely aligned with selling prices, indicating a potential for further price declines in the short term [12][30]. Tax and Regulatory Issues - The company is addressing a 5% resource tax on lithium salt exports in Zimbabwe by constructing a downstream aluminum sulfate plant and negotiating tax adjustments with local authorities [13][14]. Production and Operational Updates - The mining operations maintain a monthly production of approximately 30,000 tons of concentrate, with ongoing efforts to reduce mining and processing costs [5]. - The company has initiated the divestment of its copper project, with progress reported as smooth [18]. Inventory and Market Conditions - The company has accumulated some inventory due to low prices, while overall industry inventory levels remain uncertain [17]. - The market is currently viewed as being at a low point, with potential for price adjustments driven by strong demand in the long term [12][30]. Future Plans and Shareholder Returns - The company has approved a dividend plan, distributing dividends for every 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to share profits with shareholders [34]. Conclusion - Zhongmin Resources is strategically positioning itself to enhance production capacity, manage costs, and navigate regulatory challenges while maintaining a focus on shareholder returns and long-term growth in a fluctuating market environment [2][4][11][34].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Glencore's copper smelting plant in Chile has resumed operations [1] Group 2 - The resumption of operations at the smelting plant is significant for the copper industry, potentially impacting supply and pricing dynamics [1] - This development may enhance Glencore's production capacity and operational efficiency in the region [1] - The copper market is closely monitored due to its importance in various sectors, including construction and electronics, making this news relevant for investors [1]

Group 1 - Chile's total export value is projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2024, reaching $100.163 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1] - Copper remains the largest export product, with an export value of $50.858 billion, while non-traditional exports such as fruits and seafood totaled $43.755 billion, remaining stable compared to 2023 [1] - Fresh fruit exports have shown significant growth, reaching $8.245 billion, with an increase of 28.6% [1] - Service exports also reached a record high of $2.869 billion in 2024, marking an 18% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - The Chilean government has implemented measures to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural exports, including increasing labor supply and infrastructure investment [2] - In the service trade sector, an electronic platform called "Chile Services" was established to assist service exporters with VAT refunds and market access [2] - The Chilean Export Promotion Agency launched a competition in July 2024 to support entrepreneurship and service industries, providing funding for international exhibitions and legal consulting [2] Group 3 - In 2024, 8,567 Chilean companies engaged in export activities, with 53% being small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [3] - Chile hosted its first Global Solutions Export Matching Conference in 2024 and supported SMEs in participating in international industry meetings [3] - An upgraded free trade agreement with Mexico includes provisions for SMEs, enhancing their participation in foreign trade [3] Group 4 - China remains Chile's largest export destination, with exports to China reaching $37.835 billion, accounting for over 37% of total exports, and a year-on-year increase of 6% [4] - During the ninth "Chile Week" in December, 25 Chilean companies promoted products such as fresh fruits, wine, and meat in China [4] - Two significant agreements were signed with China, facilitating the transport of fresh fruits and including chilled pork in the list of products allowed for export [4]

Core Viewpoint - The control of Cangge Mining has shifted to Zijin Mining Group, which now holds 26.18% of the shares and has achieved financial consolidation despite not owning a majority stake [1][3][4]. Group 1: Control Transfer and Shareholding Changes - Zijin Mining completed the acquisition of Cangge Mining's control within four months, spending 137.29 billion yuan to acquire approximately 392 million shares at 35 yuan per share, representing 24.98% of Cangge Mining's total equity [3][4]. - Following the transfer, the shareholding of the original controller, Xiao Yongming, decreased to 20.13%, with voting rights at 15.1%, while Zijin Mining's voting rights increased to 26.18% [4]. - The board of directors of Cangge Mining underwent significant changes, with most seats now held by Zijin Mining personnel, indicating a complete shift in governance [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - Cangge Mining, a key player in the lithium mining sector, reported a total revenue of 32.51 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.80 billion yuan, down 24.56% [7]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, with the average market price for lithium carbonate dropping by 67.04% to 90,100 yuan per ton in 2024 [7][8]. - Despite the downturn, analysts project steady growth for Cangge Mining, with expected revenues of 33.39 billion yuan, 39.88 billion yuan, and 48.63 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with significant year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increased production and favorable market conditions for copper and other minerals [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.542 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 50.74% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 24.37% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 808 million yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 9.61% and a remarkable quarter-over-quarter increase of 305.62% [1][2]. - The company’s gross profit increased by 67% to 2.878 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 4.47 percentage points to 17.4% [2]. Production and Market Conditions - The production volumes for various minerals in Q1 2025 were as follows: copper at 44,000 tons, molybdenum at 1,248 tons, zinc at 30,000 tons, lead at 17,000 tons, iron concentrate at 339,000 tons, gold concentrate at 62 kg, and silver concentrate at 31.3 tons [2]. - The company’s production performance indicates that it is on track to meet or exceed annual production targets for most minerals, particularly copper and molybdenum [2]. - Domestic prices for electrolytic copper, molybdenum concentrate, zinc ingots, lead ingots, iron ore, gold, and silver mostly showed a quarter-over-quarter increase, contributing to improved financial performance [2]. Dividend Policy and Growth Prospects - The company is recognized as a rare high-dividend copper mining company in the A-share market, with a proposed total dividend distribution of 2.383 billion yuan for the 2024 fiscal year, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 81% [3]. - The core asset, Yulong Copper Mine, is undergoing a significant expansion project that is expected to enhance copper production capacity to 180,000-200,000 tons, further driving the company's growth [3]. Rating and Future Outlook - The company maintains an "Accumulate" rating, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 of 3.619 billion yuan, 3.983 billion yuan, and 4.829 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 16.84 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1X for 2025 [4].

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

Energy - Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has revised its oil production forecast for 2025 down from 518.6 million tons to 516 million tons, while pipeline natural gas exports are expected to increase from 80.6 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 89.1 billion cubic meters by 2025 [1] - The European Commission is exploring legal avenues to allow companies to terminate contracts with Russia for natural gas without incurring fines, and is considering measures to prohibit EU companies from signing new contracts for Russian natural gas and LNG [1] - The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on Iranian natural gas and shipping companies [2] - Saudi Arabia and India have reached an agreement on cooperation in the energy sector, including the supply of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Spot gold experienced significant volatility, briefly falling below the 3300 mark [1] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, one of the largest copper mines globally, resulted in the death of the operations manager, leading to a complete shutdown for safety investigations [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices will average $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, with a potential to exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026 [1] - Chile's state copper company expert Eric Medel indicated that the upside potential for copper has been weakened, and prices may remain bearish in the short term due to trade war risks [1]