Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has announced adjustments to the value-added tax (VAT) policies for onshore wind, offshore wind, and nuclear power, transitioning from broad subsidies to targeted support [1][2] - The new VAT policies will take effect from November 1, 2023, with specific provisions for offshore wind and nuclear power projects [1][2] Group 1: Policy Changes - The VAT exemption for onshore wind power, established in 2015, will be abolished starting November 1, 2023 [1] - From November 1, 2023, to December 31, 2027, a 50% VAT refund policy will be implemented for electricity products generated from offshore wind [1] - For nuclear power, projects approved before October 31, 2025, will benefit from a 50% VAT refund for ten years after commercial operation begins [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The differentiated VAT policies reflect a shift in the government's approach to renewable energy, moving from "policy blood transfusion" to "market blood production" [1] - The new policies indicate a transitional support strategy for the growing offshore wind and nuclear power sectors, with a focus on fostering technological competitiveness [2] - The success of offshore wind power in achieving price parity by 2027 will depend on advancements in floating technology and access to deep-sea development rights [2]

Core Viewpoint - The policy adjustment has a controllable impact on China Nuclear Power (601985.SH), with specific financial implications outlined for both operational and under-construction nuclear power units [1] Summary by Categories Impact on Operational Units - The value-added tax (VAT) refund policy for the 26 operational nuclear power units remains unchanged and consistent with previous policies [1] Impact on Under-Construction Units - For the 19 approved but not yet operational nuclear power units, due to the input tax deduction during the construction period, there will typically be no VAT payable for the first 5-6 years of operation, resulting in no VAT refunds [1] - For a single Hualong One unit, the comparison with the previous policy indicates that there will be no VAT payable in the first 5 years of operation, and no VAT refunds [1] - From the 6th to the 10th year of operation, the estimated annual impact on the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 20 million yuan, and from the 11th to the 15th year, it is approximately 56 million yuan annually [1] - The total estimated impact on the company's net profit attributable to shareholders over the lifespan of these units is around 400 million yuan [1] - The effects of this policy change on the company's future operating results are expected to gradually manifest after 2030, with no significant impact during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Future Projects - For new nuclear power units approved after October 31, 2025, there will be no VAT refunds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Shentong (002438.SZ) has been actively involved in supplying specialized valves for various new nuclear power plant types in China and is committed to keeping pace with advancements in nuclear energy technology [1] Group 1 - The company has participated in the supply of valves for all types of newly constructed nuclear power plants in China over the years [1] - Jiangsu Shentong is engaged in the research and supply of valves required for nuclear power projects in friendly countries [1] - The company is focused on the development of valves in line with the advancements in the nuclear energy application frontier [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Zirconium Industry (002167.SZ) has indicated that its oxychloride zirconium products can be utilized in the production of nuclear-grade sponge zircon used in the nuclear power industry [1] Company Summary - Dongfang Zirconium Industry is actively involved in the production of oxychloride zirconium products [1] - The company is positioning its products for applications in the nuclear power sector, specifically for nuclear-grade sponge zircon [1] Industry Summary - The nuclear power industry is a potential market for oxychloride zirconium products, highlighting the relevance of these materials in energy production [1]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has established a new nuclear power company, with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, indicating a strategic expansion in the nuclear energy sector [1] Group 1 - The newly established company is named CGN Guangdong East (Lufeng) Nuclear Power Co., Ltd [1] - The business scope of the new company includes sales of generators and generator sets, as well as sales of mechanical equipment [1] - CGN holds 100% ownership of the new company, reflecting its commitment to the nuclear power industry [1]

Group 1: Nuclear Power Development - The "Hualong One" nuclear power unit at Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant has officially commenced commercial operation, marking a significant achievement in China's third-generation nuclear technology [3] - The "Hualong One" unit has an annual electricity generation capacity of nearly 10 billion kWh, sufficient to meet the annual electricity needs of 1 million people [3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the construction of "Hualong One" units is progressing steadily, with a domestic equipment localization rate exceeding 90%, benefiting over 5,400 upstream and downstream enterprises [3] Group 2: Heavy Machinery and Infrastructure - The development of large-diameter shield tunneling machines has broken foreign technology monopolies, addressing key construction challenges in China's transportation infrastructure [5] - China Railway Equipment has produced over 50 large-diameter shield machines, including the world's largest high-speed rail shield machine, showcasing China's manufacturing capabilities [5] Group 3: Space Exploration - The "Xihe" solar observation satellite has been capturing solar evolution data, providing a unique perspective for understanding the sun [7] - The satellite has achieved several international firsts in solar observation technology and has made its data available to research teams from 15 countries [7] Group 4: Energy Equipment - The successful development of the domestically produced F-class 50 MW heavy-duty gas turbine represents a significant breakthrough in China's high-end energy equipment sector [9] - This turbine can generate over 70,000 kWh of electricity per hour, enough to meet the daily electricity needs of 7,000 households, and can reduce carbon emissions by approximately 500,000 tons annually [9] Group 5: High-Speed Rail - The CR450 train set, capable of reaching a testing speed of 450 km/h and an operational speed of 400 km/h, represents a significant advancement in high-speed rail technology [11] - The train features a 22% reduction in running resistance and a 10% weight reduction, making it the fastest high-speed train globally upon its operational launch [11] Group 6: Quantum Computing - The "Zuchongzhi 3" superconducting quantum computing prototype has set a new record for quantum computing superiority, outperforming the fastest classical algorithms by 15 orders of magnitude [13] - This achievement highlights China's advancements in quantum computing technology and its potential to lead in this field [13] Group 7: Artificial Synthesis - Chinese scientists have achieved the first artificial synthesis of starch from carbon dioxide in a simplified process, significantly faster than natural methods [15] - This breakthrough could revolutionize food production methods if successfully industrialized [15] Group 8: Offshore Gas Development - The "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project has commenced full production, becoming China's largest offshore gas field with a daily output exceeding 15 million cubic meters [17] - This project marks a significant advancement in deep-water oil and gas development in China, entering the ultra-deep water era [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, specifically recommending investment in JianTou Energy and other undervalued thermal power assets, as well as opportunities in charging stations and photovoltaic sectors [1]. Core Insights - JianTou Energy's Q3 2025 performance is highlighted, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.583 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 232%. The Q3 net profit alone is expected to be around 686 million yuan, a staggering increase of 566% year-on-year [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide [4]. - The NDRC has also released a draft for implementing minimum renewable energy consumption targets, which will enhance the share of renewable energy in electricity consumption through various means [4]. Industry Data Tracking - **Electricity Prices**: In August 2025, the average grid purchase price decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 1.3% month-on-month, averaging 388 yuan/MWh [39]. - **Coal Prices**: As of October 17, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 748 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.95% but a week-on-week increase of 39 yuan/ton [44][45]. - **Water Conditions**: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 170.55 meters as of October 17, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 48.15% and 102.78% year-on-year, respectively [53]. - **Electricity Consumption**: From January to July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [14]. - **Power Generation**: The cumulative power generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Thermal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [22]. - **Installed Capacity**: As of the first half of 2025, new installed capacity for thermal power was 25.78 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [47]. Investment Recommendations - **Thermal Power**: Focus on undervalued thermal power investments, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with recommendations for JianTou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - **Charging Station Equipment**: Suggested investments in companies like Teruid and Shenghong Co., Ltd. [4]. - **Photovoltaic and Charging Station Assets**: Potential for value reassessment in photovoltaic and charging station assets due to market dynamics [4]. - **Green Energy**: Emphasis on the recovery of asset quality and growth potential in green energy, with recommendations for Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and others [4]. - **Hydropower**: Highlighting the low cost and strong cash flow of hydropower, with recommendations for Changjiang Power [4]. - **Nuclear Power**: Continued growth in nuclear power with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Summary of Conference Call on China Electric Utilities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of VAT rebate cuts announced by the PRC's Ministry of Finance on the electric utilities sector, specifically focusing on wind and nuclear power industries [1][2]. Key Points on VAT Rebate Cuts - **VAT Rebate Cancellation**: - The 50% VAT rebate for onshore wind farms will be cancelled effective from November 1, 2025. Offshore wind power generation will see a similar cancellation starting January 1, 2028 [2]. - New nuclear units approved after October 31, 2025, will not be entitled to VAT rebates, while existing operational units will continue to receive rebates for a defined period [2]. Impact on Companies - **Longyuan Power Group**: - The VAT rebate cut is expected to reduce Longyuan's net profit by more than 5%, pending confirmation from the company [1][6]. - The company is currently assessing the financial impact of the VAT changes [3]. - **CGN Power**: - The VAT rebate cut will have a lesser impact on CGN Power as it primarily affects new nuclear units. The estimated reduction in net profit for new units is approximately Rmb20 million per annum in the 6th-10th years and Rmb50 million per annum in the 11th-15th years of operation [7]. - CGN Power's existing operational units will not be affected in the near term, specifically for the years 2025-2030 [7]. Financial Projections - **Valuation Models**: - CGN Power's target price is set at HK$2.60, based on a DCF model, with a WACC of 7.0% [8]. - Longyuan's target price is set at HK$7.00, also based on a DCF model, with a WACC of 7.6% [10]. - CNNP's target price is Rmb11.00, with a WACC of 6.7% [12]. Risks Identified - **Longyuan Power Group**: - Risks include unpredictable weather conditions affecting utilization rates, capacity additions, and potential tariff cuts [11]. - **CGN Power**: - Risks include lower-than-expected utilization, tariff reductions, and interest rate hikes [13]. Additional Insights - The VAT rebate changes are part of a broader policy affecting multiple industries, including financial leasing and coal bed methane extraction, indicating a significant shift in government policy towards renewable energy and its financial support [2]. - The conference call highlights the cautious outlook for both Longyuan (Neutral) and CGN Power (Sell) due to anticipated net profit cuts year-over-year in 2025 [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the implications of VAT rebate cuts on the electric utilities sector in China, particularly focusing on Longyuan and CGN Power.

Core Points - The announcement outlines adjustments to the value-added tax (VAT) policy for wind power generation and nuclear power plants in China, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [1][6] - A 50% VAT immediate refund policy will be implemented for taxpayers selling electricity generated from offshore wind power [1][6] - Existing nuclear power plants that commenced commercial operations before October 31, 2025, will continue to follow previous VAT regulations, while newly approved nuclear plants after this date will not benefit from the VAT refund policy [1][6] Summary by Sections Wind Power - From November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, a 50% VAT immediate refund policy will apply to electricity products generated from offshore wind power [1][6] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power plants that are officially operational before October 31, 2025, will adhere to existing VAT regulations as per the 2008 notice [1][6] - For nuclear power plants approved before October 31, 2025, but not yet operational, a VAT refund policy will apply for 10 years post-commercial operation, with a 50% refund on paid VAT [1][6] - Nuclear power plants approved after November 1, 2025, will not be eligible for the VAT refund policy [1][6] Regulatory Changes - The announcement supersedes previous regulations that are inconsistent with it, specifically the 2015 notice on wind power VAT policy, which will be abolished starting November 1, 2025 [1][6]

Core Viewpoint - The "Hualong One" nuclear reactor at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant Unit 5 has officially commenced commercial operation, marking a significant achievement in China's nuclear power development and establishing a new global benchmark for third-generation nuclear technology [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Hualong One" reactor is the world's first third-generation nuclear reactor to be completed on schedule, showcasing a transition from "Made in China" to "Created in China" [1] - Each "Hualong One" reactor has an annual electricity generation capacity of nearly 10 billion kilowatt-hours, sufficient to meet the annual electricity needs of 1 million people [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the mass construction of "Hualong One" reactors is steadily advancing, with the localization rate of related equipment exceeding 90%, benefiting over 5,400 enterprises in the upstream and downstream supply chain [1] - Currently, there are 41 "Hualong One" reactors approved for operation or under construction worldwide, making it the most widely approved third-generation nuclear technology globally and the main reactor type in current nuclear power construction [1]