Core Insights - The new energy sector, including lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind power, is experiencing significant activity on the STAR Market, with the New Energy ETF (588960) rising by 3.92% and the Lithium Battery ETF (561160) increasing by 2.64% [1] - Major companies in the New Energy ETF, such as Daqo Energy and Trina Solar, have seen substantial gains, with Daqo Energy rising over 10% and Trina Solar increasing more than 6% [1] - The central government is intensifying efforts to regulate disorderly competition, focusing on improving product quality and facilitating the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1] Industry Developments - A joint notice from the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments emphasizes the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [1] - The focus will be on local economic development, the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the distribution of electric power resources, with an emphasis on "instant charge and go" scenarios [1] - Analysts indicate that semi-solid-state batteries are beginning to scale up, while solid-state batteries are expected to see small-scale deployment by 2027 and larger applications in energy storage post-2030 [1] ETF Information - The New Energy ETF (588960) closely tracks the STAR Market New Energy Index (000692.SH), with daily price fluctuations potentially reaching 20% [2] - The index comprises 50 large-cap stocks from the solar, wind, and new energy vehicle sectors, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies in the new energy industry on the STAR Market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that anti-involution policies will primarily focus on industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, leading to accelerated mergers, restructuring, and integration rather than administrative capacity reduction [1] - The recent sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has declined, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a pullback after reaching the upper range, influenced by strong U.S. economic data, delayed interest rate cuts, a depreciating RMB, and rising long-term interest rates, which have increased pressure on the liabilities of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Looking ahead, high long-term U.S. interest rates may continue to suppress the economy, but the AI capital expenditure wave is expected to support the performance of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong, with high demand in upstream AI computing power and servers likely to persist into the second half of the year, providing a favorable long-term value proposition for the Hang Seng Technology sector [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which is compiled by Guozheng Index Co., Ltd., aiming to reflect the performance of technology industry stocks that can be traded through the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index constituents mainly cover high-tech fields such as information technology and healthcare, selecting innovative companies with high growth potential as samples, thereby reflecting the overall trend of the technology sector in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The industry allocation focuses on technological innovation areas, including cloud computing and biomedicine, providing investors with an efficient tool to invest in leading technology stocks in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - The "Great Beauty" Act, signed by Trump on July 4, 2023, will lead to further fiscal easing in the U.S., providing short-term support for economic growth but potentially causing secondary inflation risks and delaying Fed rate cuts, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability [1][10][12] - The final version of the "Great Beauty" Act has a larger deficit compared to the House version, with changes including the removal of Clause 899, an increase in the federal debt ceiling, and tightened conditions for Medicaid eligibility [1][10] - The Act is expected to have significant long-term effects across various industries, providing tax and subsidy advantages to traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors while cutting benefits for clean energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and food sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The Act will allow for the resumption of oil and gas leasing auctions on public lands and waters, and it maintains policies for real estate companies to fully deduct property improvement costs [11] - A budget of approximately $150 billion will be allocated over the next five years for large military projects, including shipbuilding and missile defense systems [11] - The semiconductor industry will see an increase in tax credits from 25% to 35% for new factories built in the U.S., with projects needing to commence by the end of 2026 [11] Group 3 - The "Great Beauty" Act represents a significant expansion of U.S. fiscal policy, which may require rate cuts to support this expansion amid high deficits and debt concerns [12][15] - The current fiscal expansion differs from previous cycles due to unexpected fiscal growth, changes in economic fundamentals, tariff uncertainties, and cracks in dollar credit [12][15] - The narrative around major asset classes is expected to fluctuate between "economic weakness," "data resilience," and "fiscal risk," impacting pricing for U.S. Treasuries, equities, the dollar, gold, and oil [15]

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 周观点：工信部召开座谈会，治理低 价无序竞争 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十七周） 周观点：工信部部长召开座谈会，治理低价无序竞争 7 月 3 日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业制造业 企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业 协会情况介绍和意见建议。14 家光伏行业头部企业及光伏行业协会负责人 作交流发言，介绍企业基本情况、面临的困难和问题，提出政策建议。会议 强调，要依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。我们认为本次会议工 信部部长主持，头部企业负责人参会，为历次光伏企业座谈会的最高规格， 明确了政府与行业协同推动供给侧改革的大方向，看好后续供给侧改革细则 陆续落地，推动行业供需格局重塑。 子行业观点 1）新能源车：6 月国内新能源车销量走势较好；2）储能：SPE 提出欧洲储 能十倍扩容目标，我们看好欧洲大储起量；3）光伏：工信部部长召开座谈 会，治理低价无序竞争；4）风电：国内海风招中标稳步推进。 重点公司及动态 1）宁 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a potential recovery in global manufacturing, driven by renewed emphasis on physical demand and infrastructure investment in developed economies, particularly Germany and the United States [3][12][21] - Germany plans to invest €120 billion in infrastructure by 2025, with an additional €800 billion in deficits projected from 2025 to 2029, representing about 20% of its GDP [12][18] - The U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" increases tax credits for advanced manufacturing investments from 25% to 35% and allows 100% depreciation for fixed assets in the year they are put into use [12][15] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining attention, particularly in industries with high capacity utilization and low product prices, which may see significant profit improvements through capacity restrictions [4][31][33] - The report notes that excess capacity is concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, where demand growth is expected to continue, making direct capacity reduction less likely [4][31] - Traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and lower prices may benefit more from the "anti-involution" policies, leading to better profit elasticity [31][33] Group 3 - The report discusses a shift from virtual to real assets, indicating that while liquidity may pose risks, the fundamentals present opportunities for investment [5][37] - Chinese companies have increased capital expenditures despite declining ROIC, suggesting a recovery phase for capital returns, particularly in traditional sectors [5][37] - The report recommends asset allocation towards upstream resource products (copper, aluminum, oil) and capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks) to benefit from rising physical asset demand [5][37]

Group 1 - The article draws parallels between the Plaza Accord of 1985, which negatively impacted Japan's economy, and current U.S. strategies aimed at China, suggesting that the U.S. may be attempting to replicate this historical scenario [1][3][9] - The U.S. is facing significant trade deficits, particularly with China, which has emerged as a major manufacturing competitor, holding over 30% of global manufacturing value added in 2022 [5][9] - The strong dollar, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve policies, is seen as a tool to attract global capital back to the U.S. while simultaneously undermining China's economic growth [9][11] Group 2 - The appreciation of the dollar is eroding the profit margins of Chinese exporters, making it difficult for them to compete, as rising costs may lead to orders shifting to other emerging markets like Vietnam and India [7][9] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has diminished, now accounting for less than 11% of GDP, which raises questions about the sustainability of its economic strategies compared to the 1980s [9][11] - Some U.S. states are exploring alternatives to the dollar, reflecting growing concerns over federal debt and the stability of the dollar system, which could signify a fracture in the U.S. financial framework [13][15] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for China to find a balance between maintaining currency stability and ensuring export competitiveness, highlighting the challenges posed by potential passive appreciation of the yuan [13][15] - It warns of the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on the global economy, underscoring the importance of developing a robust financial infrastructure to mitigate these impacts [15] - The current situation is framed as a gamble for the U.S., betting that China will not resist pressure as Japan did in the past, but the differing economic contexts suggest that outcomes may vary significantly [15]

Core Viewpoint - The delivery ceremony of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition, China's first airborne car delivery, took place on a private jet, highlighting the luxury and innovative experience of the vehicle [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features - The official starting price of the Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is 899,000 yuan, featuring luxurious elements such as gold accents and high-quality materials, appealing to high-end consumers [1]. - The vehicle is designed with safety and comfort in mind, including a unique one-piece cast C-ring seat that secures rear seats to the aluminum body, ensuring passenger safety [5]. - It boasts the world's first LC privacy dimming glass, which can switch from bright to dark in one second, with a UV blocking rate of 99.9% and a shading rate of 99.5% [5]. - The seats are made from ultra-soft aniline leather, featuring 11 layers and 12 ergonomic support zones, providing 20 massage points and a graphene thermal SPA experience [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Insights - The Zeekr 009 Glorious Edition is favored by high-end users, with a significant portion of buyers being executives and entrepreneurs, predominantly male [1][3]. - The vehicle's performance is notable, being the fastest accelerating MPV globally, achieving 0-100 km/h in just 3.9 seconds, and equipped with a battery that allows for over 500 km of range in just 11.5 minutes of charging [5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has surpassed 50%, with domestic brands like Zeekr capturing a significant share of the 600,000 yuan market segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local luxury vehicles [6].

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the current macroeconomic contradictions and the "prisoner's dilemma" of chaotic competition in industries, emphasizing the need for improved resource allocation efficiency and product quality enhancement [2][4] - The policy is expected to have a more significant impact on emerging industries facing overcapacity, such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, compared to traditional industries that have already undergone some consolidation [4][10] Industry Analysis - Since 2020, emerging manufacturing sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have rapidly developed, leading to significant supply-side homogeneity and price declines, with prices for photovoltaic materials dropping nearly 90% since 2023 [4][9] - The traditional industries, such as steel and cement, have seen improved profitability and price levels compared to ten years ago, indicating that the marginal effects of the "anti-involution" policy on these sectors may be less pronounced than during the previous supply-side reforms [4][10] - The report highlights that the current economic environment and the structure of industries have evolved, making the sectors affected by overcapacity different from those ten years ago, with the focus now on new emerging industries [5][10] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to be more moderate compared to the previous supply-side reforms, focusing on guiding and regulating rather than enforcing strict capacity reductions [7][8] - The government has emphasized the importance of balancing "anti-involution" efforts with employment stability, indicating that the approach may prioritize positive guidance over aggressive capacity cuts [8][10] - Recent meetings and initiatives from government bodies indicate a strong commitment to addressing low-price competition in emerging sectors, with significant actions already taken by leading companies in the photovoltaic and automotive industries [9][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as the photovoltaic supply chain, lithium battery industry, and traditional industries like steel and cement that are experiencing overcapacity [11] - Specific recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, as well as traditional industries that have shown resilience and improved profitability [11][29]

Industry Overview - As of July 4, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 61,300 to 63,300 CNY per ton, with an average price of 62,300 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 200 CNY per ton. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 60,200 to 61,200 CNY per ton, with an average of 60,700 CNY per ton, also up by 200 CNY per ton week-on-week. The spot price of lithium carbonate continues to show a slight upward trend due to improved demand expectations for July and strong support from rigid demand [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in June is expected to reach a new high, with wholesale sales of NEV manufacturers estimated at 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Cumulatively, from January to June, wholesale sales reached 6.47 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [6][5] - In May, the export value of automotive goods reached 20.67 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. The total import and export value of automotive goods for May was 25.06 billion USD, with imports valued at 4.38 billion USD and exports at 20.67 billion USD [5][6] Company Developments - XPeng Motors launched the new AI smart family SUV, XPeng G7, with a starting price of 195,800 CNY. The vehicle features advanced AI capabilities and is the world's first L3-level AI car, achieving 2250 TOPS of effective computing power [7] - GAC Group announced that its first model in collaboration with Huawei is expected to be launched in 2026, focusing on the high-end market segment priced around 300,000 CNY [8] - NIO's founder Li Bin stated that the company has achieved its strategic goal of self-developed chips, with the global first automotive-grade 5nm intelligent driving chip, Shenji NX9031, now being applied in several models [9] Policy and Market Trends - The Ministry of Commerce will enhance guidance on the export of used cars to promote healthy and orderly development in this sector. The export business for used cars was officially launched nationwide in February 2024 [4] - Jinan city has initiated its first round of automotive consumption subsidies for the second half of 2025, with a total subsidy amount of 12 million CNY available for individuals and enterprises purchasing non-operational passenger vehicles [4]