Market Overview - On September 19, the rubber sector declined by 1.06%, with Sanwei Equipment leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the rubber sector included: - Tongcheng New Material (603650) closed at 36.12, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 197,700 shares and a turnover of 721 million yuan [1] - Sanwei Equipment (831834) saw a significant drop of 26.15%, closing at 19.20 with a trading volume of 227,700 shares and a turnover of 498 million yuan [2] - Other stocks like Tian Tie Technology (300587) and Heimao Co. (002068) experienced slight declines of -0.34% and -0.56% respectively [1][2] Capital Flow - The rubber sector experienced a net inflow of 5.76 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 28.66 million yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Zhen'an Technology (300767) had a net inflow of 17.02 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Sanwei Co. (603033) had a net outflow of 9.51 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - The Fed's rate cut is in line with expectations, leading to an adjustment in commodities and relatively weak rubber prices this week. In the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas production areas, mainly Thailand, are still affected by rainfall. It is expected that overseas raw material prices will remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber may still be strong. The domestic arrival volume has slightly recovered, but the recent concentrated purchasing by downstream has led to a continuous decline in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire operating rate has rebounded again, and the overall downstream demand shows a pattern of seasonal improvement. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, it is expected that there will still be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise. For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices, which may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices. At the same time, the butadiene inventory has gradually increased recently, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking is completed. The fundamentals of BR itself still show a good pattern, and there are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, with increased purchasing by tire factories, and the operating rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the BR price [6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with 616,000 tons in the same period of 2024. From January to August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 5.373 million tons, an increase of 19% compared with 4.514 million tons in the same period of 2024. - Export: According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and an increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 820 yuan/ton (- 60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,576 yuan/ton (- 140.37), the NR basis was 709.00 yuan/ton (+ 91.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (- 200); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,650 yuan/ton (- 50). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai rubber latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.60), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the BR basis was 35 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,710 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.72% (- 3.76%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. For BR, also maintain a neutral view [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

Core Insights - The 23rd China International Rubber Technology Exhibition opened in Shanghai on September 17, showcasing over 60,000 square meters of exhibition space with participation from more than 800 exhibitors from over 40 countries and regions [1] - The exhibition spans three days and covers various sectors including rubber machinery, rubber chemicals, raw materials, tires, non-tire rubber products, and rubber recycling [1] - Notable exhibitors include leading global companies such as VMI from the Netherlands, H-F from Germany, and representatives from major Chinese and international firms like Sinopec, SIBUR from Russia, and Shandong Huatai [1][4] Industry Highlights - The exhibition features dedicated areas for inorganic salt industrial functional materials and tire recycling, expanding its coverage compared to the previous year to enhance interaction across the entire industry chain [4] - A comprehensive event called "RubberTalk" is introduced, which includes a rubber technology summit forum, information release sessions, a forum on elastomer technology and engineering, and talent exchange meetings, facilitating collaboration among domestic and international brands and academic research teams [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and supply conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the midday close, the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract fell by 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton, the 20 rubber futures 2511 contract dropped by 2.34% to 12,300 yuan/ton, and the BR rubber futures 2511 contract decreased by 1.76% to 11,415 yuan/ton [1] - The decline in rubber prices is attributed to reduced bullish sentiment as the market adjusts to a slower pace of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Southeast Asian production regions have entered a production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2] - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2] - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2] - The actual demand during the traditional consumption peak season ("Golden September, Silver October") has not met expectations, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the rubber market faces dual pressures from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3] - The overall demand remains limited, with uncertainties in the demand outlook for tires and automobiles due to global economic slowdown and trade risks [3] - Short-term forecasts suggest that natural rubber prices may continue to operate weakly until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia has entered its production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2]. - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2]. - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2]. - Demand remains subdued despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The prices of various rubber futures contracts have shown significant declines, with the Shanghai rubber futures contract down 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton [1]. - Analysts indicate that the market is currently under dual pressure from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3]. - The overall sentiment in the rubber market is bearish, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the short term [3]. Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, after the production peak season, rubber prices may gradually increase [3]. - The market is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overseas demand and the progress of relevant pilot projects between Thailand and China [3]. - Analysts predict that natural rubber prices will likely remain weak until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material prices have been slightly adjusted downwards due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, the rainy weather has increased, affecting the tapping operations, and the local raw material supply has tightened. The processing plants' enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials is cautious, and the raw material prices have also been adjusted downwards. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, with the decline rate slightly narrowing compared to the previous period. The destocking of bonded warehouses has exceeded expectations, while the general trade warehouses have seen a slight accumulation of inventory. The downstream mainly replenishes standard rubber, driving up the提货 volume of bonded warehouses. With the downstream gradually picking up goods and transporting them to the factory, the general trade inventory is expected to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has slightly increased this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to stock up for the long - holiday period and make up for the previous order backlog. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 159271 lots, up 12463 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 69153 lots, up 3914 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30609 lots, down 1558 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13580 lots, down 893 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 153570 tons, up 1390 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 44755 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 770 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 880 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13279 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 979 yuan/ton, up 251 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 60.63 Thai baht/kg, down 0.05 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 57.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.62 Thai baht/kg, up 0.17 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.83 days, down 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.94 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.82%, up 0.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.72%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.29%, down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.7%, down 0.08 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (September 14 - 20, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium or low level, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in central and southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a reduced impact on tapping operations. As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% compared to the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; the general trade inventory is 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 1.65 percentage points. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to stock up for the long - holiday period and make up for the previous order backlog. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2]

Market Overview - On September 18, the rubber sector increased by 0.88%, led by Sanwei Equipment, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Key Performers in Rubber Sector - Yiwai Equipment (831834) closed at 26.00, up 30.00% with a trading volume of 141,700 shares and a transaction value of 332 million [1] - Kexin New Source (300731) closed at 49.72, up 9.39% with a trading volume of 228,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.122 billion [1] - Sanwei Co. (603033) closed at 13.22, up 6.27% with a trading volume of 299,200 shares and a transaction value of 392 million [1] - Zhenan Technology (300767) closed at 23.70, up 5.52% with a trading volume of 316,300 shares and a transaction value of 754 million [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 39.38 million from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 116 million [2] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 76.45 million [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Zhenan Technology (300767) had a main fund net inflow of 68.72 million, with a retail net outflow of 64.88 million [3] - Kexin New Source (300731) had a main fund net inflow of 60.62 million, with a retail net outflow of 21.22 million [3] - Sanwei Co. (603033) had a main fund net inflow of 9.68 million, with a retail net outflow of 11.59 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber has experienced a decline, with the main contract showing weak performance and a nearly 1.85% drop in price [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 18, the main contract for synthetic rubber opened at 11,570.0 CNY/ton, fluctuating between a high of 11,590.0 CNY and a low of 11,380.0 CNY [1] - The overall market for synthetic rubber is currently in a downward trend, with weak performance observed [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Southwest Futures predicts that the synthetic rubber market will remain volatile this week, influenced by poor industry profits and fluctuating prices of raw material butadiene [1] - The price of butadiene has stabilized, and processing losses have slightly narrowed; however, the capacity utilization rate on the supply side has decreased to around 73%, which is still relatively high year-on-year [1] - Demand from enterprises is better than expected, with an increase in capacity utilization rates [1] - Inventory levels for manufacturers and traders are high both month-on-month and year-on-year, providing some support for prices [1] Group 3: Production Insights - Recent reboots of most styrene-butadiene rubber facilities have led to increased domestic production and ample supply [1] - Some private facilities are undergoing maintenance, but the futures market remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory [1] - This week, a reduction in supply is expected to manifest, potentially leading to lower spot prices and slight decreases in inventory levels [1] Group 4: Demand Trends - Last week, tire manufacturers increased their capacity utilization rates, and it is expected that most companies will maintain production levels this week, with slight fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [1] - The BR2511 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,250 - 11,700 CNY [1] Group 5: Price Dynamics - Recent butadiene prices have remained firm, with tight availability of spot cargoes before shipments arrive [1] - The market is currently characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from end-users, leading to a weak outlook for the futures market [1]