Economic Outlook - In 2026, China's economy is expected to be in a phase of restorative growth, supported by expanding domestic demand, continued policy easing, and rising prices [1][5] - The nominal GDP growth is projected to improve significantly due to inflation recovery, positively impacting the income of households, businesses, and the government [2][3] - The shift from old to new industries is anticipated to become more pronounced, with new industries contributing increasingly to economic growth [3][5] Industry Changes - The transition from traditional industries to new productive forces is highlighted, with the "three new" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) expected to account for over 18% of GDP by 2024 [3][5] - The real estate sector is undergoing adjustments, returning to a focus on residential attributes, while new engines of economic growth are emerging from innovative sectors [3][5] Policy Implications - Macroeconomic policies will focus on balancing short-term and long-term needs, with a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy expected [4][5] - The emphasis on domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic development is reinforced, with initiatives to boost consumption and income for urban and rural residents [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to see a more balanced style in 2026, with market catalysts shifting from liquidity to price earnings [8][9] - Structural opportunities are anticipated in cyclical and high-end manufacturing sectors, which have begun to show signs of recovery [9][10] - The AI and new productive forces are identified as key engines for future economic development, with significant contributions expected from emerging and future industries [5][12]

Group 1 - On January 20, in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, there were 2,139 stocks that rose, 2,918 stocks that fell, and 122 stocks that remained flat [1] - Excluding newly listed stocks on that day, there were 62 stocks that hit the upper limit and 24 stocks that hit the lower limit [1] - The industries with the most stocks hitting the upper limit included chemicals, electrical equipment, electronics, real estate, and non-ferrous metals [1]

1月20日，三大指数集体收跌，创业板指一度跌超2%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%，深成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌 1.79%。 板块来看，化工板块逆势爆发，贵金属概念延续强势，房地产板块表现活跃。下跌方面，算力硬件、商业航天等板块 跌幅居前。 全市场超3100只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额2.78万亿元，较上一个交易日放量694亿。 昨日稍稍修复的A股市场，今天再度陷入调整。 三大指数中，沪指早盘一度跌破4100点，随后震荡回升，继续险守关口；日K来看，5日线久违地下穿了10日线。深 指、创业板指则纷纷收出更为明显的阴线。 | F9 不复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 안 | 上训 信誉 | 000001 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ਕੇ | | 2025/10/10-2026/01/20(71日)▼ | | -0.35 -0.01% | | | | 15:00:09 交易F | 沪深市场核心指数 / ■ + | | | 4190.87 | 全额 | | 1.22万亿 | | | 成交量 | | 734.36亿 | | | | | 4116.37 ( 0.06%) | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, but the net financing amount decreased due to the increase in the maturity scale. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and most of the yields declined. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes and urban investment bonds were differentiated, while those of enterprise bonds mostly narrowed. In the long run, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel, but one should be cautious when chasing high, and can increase positions during adjustments. One can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, and pay attention to the coordination and transformation of allocation and trading strategies [1][53]. - The central and local governments are continuously optimizing real estate policies, which play a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. As the market stabilizes, risk - preferring funds can consider early deployment in real estate bonds, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales performance. The allocation focus is on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [2][55]. - Under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of urban investment bond default is very low, and it can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. One can pay attention to the reform and transformation opportunities of "entity - type" financing platforms, and the allocation strategy can prioritize short - to - medium - term credit sinking, while the trading strategy can choose to extend the duration of medium - and high - grade bonds [3][55]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, a total of 335 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 288.193 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. The net financing amount was 34.34 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 82.176 billion yuan. The issuance amounts of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and short - term financing bills increased, while those of medium - term notes and private placement notes decreased. The net financing amounts of all varieties decreased, with negative net financing for enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes, and positive net financing for corporate bonds and short - term financing bills [12]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. By term, the 1 - year variety rate changed from -6 BP to -1 BP, the 3 - year variety from -8 BP to -1 BP, the 5 - year variety from -6 BP to -2 BP, and the 7 - year variety from -6 BP to -1 BP. By rating, the key AAA - grade and AAA - grade variety rates changed from -3 BP to -1 BP, the AA + - grade variety from -5 BP to -3 BP, the AA - grade variety from -6 BP to -3 BP, and the AA - - grade variety from -8 BP to -3 BP [13][15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 931.702 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 9.52%. The trading volume of short - term financing bills decreased, while that of other varieties increased [16]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. For enterprise bonds, most of the credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads were also differentiated [19][25][28]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads all narrowed, and most of the 3 - year rating spreads also narrowed. For AA + enterprise bonds, the term spreads mostly narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed. For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed [37][42][46]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments [51]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - During the same period, there were no defaults or extensions of credit bonds under any issuer [52]. 3.4 Investment Views - The overall view is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that credit bonds will continue the repair market, and one can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, while paying attention to the coordination of strategies and the impacts of policies, the equity market, and the supply - demand pattern [53].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%, after testing the 4100-point support level multiple times [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.97% to 14155.63 points, while the ChiNext Index experienced a decline of 1.79%, closing at 3277.98 points [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors saw declines, with notable gains in precious metals, chemical raw materials, cement and building materials, and chemical fiber industries [3] - The communication equipment, photovoltaic equipment, aerospace, power equipment, batteries, computer equipment, and electronic components sectors faced significant declines [3] Individual Stocks - The real estate sector was active, with stocks like Daxin City and Urban Investment Holdings hitting the daily limit [3] - In the AI application sector, stocks such as Jiayun Technology, Yue Media, and Zhejiang Wenlian also reached the daily limit [3] - A total of 2233 stocks rose while 3102 stocks fell, with over 60 stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with Hunan Baiyin and Zhaojin Gold reaching the daily limit [3] Declining Stocks - The computing hardware and commercial aerospace sectors experienced the largest declines, with commercial aerospace concept stocks collectively dropping, including Shenjian Co. facing four consecutive daily limits and Aerospace Power facing two consecutive daily limits [3]

Market Overview - Major Asia-Pacific stock indices collectively declined on January 20, with the Nikkei 225 down by 592.47 points or 1.11%, the KOSPI down by 18.91 points or 0.39%, and the Straits Times Index down by 6.05 points or 0.13% [2] - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.79%. Over 3,100 stocks in the market fell [2] Sector Performance - The satellite internet, CPO, commercial aerospace, and telecommunications sectors led the declines, with commercial aerospace stocks experiencing significant drops, including Shenjian Co. (002361) facing four consecutive trading halts and Aerospace Power (600343) facing two consecutive halts [3] - The chemical sector showed resilience, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Hongbaoli (002165), Shandong Heda (002810), Weiyuan Co. (600955), and Hongqiang Co. (002809) [3] - The real estate sector was active, with Dayuecheng (000031) and City Investment Holdings (600649) hitting the daily limit up [3] Hong Kong Market - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 1%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw slight declines. Most tech stocks were in the red, with SMIC, Sunny Optical Technology, and BYD (002594) down over 3%, while Xiaomi Group fell over 2%. Ctrip Group rose over 2.5%, and Midea Group (000333) and Baidu Group increased by over 1% [3] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices rose, with spot gold surpassing $4,700, increasing by nearly 1% and up over 9% year-to-date. In contrast, spot silver fell nearly 0.5%, fluctuating around $94 per ounce [5] - Current prices for gold and silver include: - London Gold: $4,714.235, up by $45.051 or 0.96%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.17% - London Silver: $93.954, down by $0.444 or -0.47%, with a year-to-date increase of 31.26% - COMEX Gold: $4,712.5, up by $35.8 or 0.77%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.78% - COMEX Silver: $93.380, down by $0.900 or -0.95%, with a year-to-date increase of 31.58% [6]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined, with the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.79% and briefly falling over 2% during the trading session [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.97% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 694 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market experienced declines [1][2] Sector Performance - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Hongbaoli, Shandong Heda, Weiyuan Co., and Hongqiang Co. [1][2] - Precious metals continued to perform well, with Zhaojin Gold achieving two consecutive limit-ups and Hunan Silver also hitting the limit [1][2] - The real estate sector was active, with Dayue City and Urban Investment Holdings reaching the daily limit [1][2] - AI application stocks saw localized gains, with Jiayun Technology, Yue Media, and Zhejiang Wenhu Interconnect hitting the limit [1][2] Declining Sectors - The computing hardware and commercial aerospace sectors experienced significant declines [1][2] - Stocks in the commercial aerospace sector collectively fell, with Shenjian Co. facing four consecutive limit-downs and Aerospace Power experiencing two consecutive limit-downs [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%, and total trading volume reaching 12,214.86 billion yuan [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,155.63 points, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 15,561.72 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,277.98 points, down 1.79%, with a trading volume of 7,026.80 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the highest gains included precious metals, chemical raw materials, and real estate, while sectors such as military electronics, communication equipment, and military equipment experienced the largest declines [1] - In the sector rankings, the top performers were: - Electric metals: +4.97% with a trading volume of 1,141.96 million hands and a net inflow of 254.69 million yuan [2] - Chemical raw materials: +1.84% with a trading volume of 2,370.09 million hands and a net inflow of 237.57 million yuan [2] - Real estate: +1.57% with a trading volume of 6,219.10 million hands and a net inflow of 319.97 million yuan [2] Declining Sectors - The sectors that faced the largest declines included: - Military electronics: -3.82% with a trading volume of 2,953.16 million hands and a net outflow of 62.58 million yuan [2] - Communication equipment: -3.11% with a trading volume of 2,705.64 million hands and a net outflow of 136.34 million yuan [2] - Military equipment: -2.66% with a trading volume of 2,957.57 million hands and a net outflow of 95.34 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - Major Asia-Pacific stock indices collectively declined, with the Nikkei 225 down by 1.11% and the Hang Seng Index down by 0.37% [2] - A-shares experienced volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79% [2] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market fell, indicating a broad market downturn [2] Sector Performance - The satellite internet, CPO, commercial aerospace, and communications sectors led the decline, with significant drops in commercial aerospace stocks [3] - The chemical sector showed resilience, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Hongbaoli and Shandong Heda [3] - The real estate sector was active, with stocks like Diyi City and Urban Investment Holdings reaching the daily limit up [3] Stock Highlights - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 1%, while the overall Hang Seng Index saw a slight decline [3] - Notable declines were observed in tech stocks such as SMIC and BYD, both dropping over 3%, while Ctrip Group rose over 2.5% [3] - Pop Mart showed strong performance, initially rising over 10% after announcing a share buyback of 140,000 shares for HKD 251 million [3] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices rose, surpassing USD 4,700, marking a year-to-date increase of over 9% [5] - In contrast, silver prices fell nearly 0.5%, fluctuating around USD 94 per ounce [5]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5][6] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4113.65, down 0.01% [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14155.63, down 0.97% [2] - ChiNext Index: 3277.98, down 1.79% [2] - The market saw over 3100 stocks decline, with a significant number of stocks in the chemical sector hitting the daily limit up [2] Sector Performance - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with several stocks such as Hongbaoli and Shandong Heda hitting the daily limit up [2] - Precious metals continued to perform well, with stocks like Zhaojin Gold and Hunan Silver reaching the daily limit up [2] - The real estate sector was active, with stocks like Dayuecheng and City Investment Holdings also hitting the daily limit up [2] Stock Movements - AI application stocks saw partial gains, with companies like Jiayun Technology and Yue Media hitting the daily limit up [3] - Conversely, sectors such as computing hardware and commercial aerospace experienced significant declines, with stocks like Shenjian Co. and Aerospace Power facing consecutive limit downs [3]