Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 26.75 to close at 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the May bean粕 contract fell 35 to close at 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the South China bean粕 spot price closed at 3060 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed粕 contract dropped 24 to close at 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the Guangxi rapeseed粕 spot price fell 30 to close at 2470 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.20% [3][6]. - Favorable weather conditions in South America have strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, increasing supply. The overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, heightening concerns about exports and potentially leading to a downward adjustment of export forecasts. As a result, US soybeans have been weakening, filling the gap from the sharp jump at the end of October. In China, the enthusiasm for imported soybean auctions has cooled, and combined with the decline in import costs, bean粕 prices have fallen this week [3][6]. - South American crops are expected to have a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, and export supply will increase in February. China's pace of purchasing US soybeans has slowed compared to earlier, and the overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, causing the outer - market prices to continue to decline. Last week, the imported soybean auction cooled. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction results. There is still supply in the spot market, and downstream buyers are mainly replenishing stocks on a rolling basis. However, the supply of imported soybeans will decrease in the first quarter, and with the expectation of holiday stocking, there is support for spot prices. It is expected that the main contract of Dalian bean粕 will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price dropped from 1086.25 to 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 474 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.27%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell from 491 to 476 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.05%; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market increased from - 110.17 to - 80.72 yuan per ton; the DCE bean粕 price dropped from 2770 to 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the CZCE rapeseed粕 price fell from 2347 to 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the price difference between bean粕 and rapeseed粕 decreased from 423 to 412 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of bean粕 dropped from 3080 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.65%; the South China spot price of bean粕 remained unchanged at 3060 yuan per ton; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 290 to 325 yuan per ton [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending November 27, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 110.6 million tons, down from 232.1 million tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 2183 million tons, with a sales progress of 49.1%, compared to 70.9% last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 50.9 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 301.5 million tons and an unshipped volume of 301.5 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean粕 at Illinois soybean processing plants was 311.2 dollars per short ton, down from 320.87 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.67 cents per pound, down from 50.37 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.77 dollars per bushel, down from 10.95 dollars per bushel the previous week [7]. - The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November was 216.041 million bushels, a 5.1% decrease from October and an 11.8% increase from the same period last year. As of November 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from the end of October and a 39.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 94.1%, up from 90.3% the previous week and lower than 96.8% last year. Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. As of the week ending December 17, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 67.3%, up from 58.6% the previous week and lower than 76.6% last year [8]. - The weather forecast for South American soybean - growing regions shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in the southern Brazilian soybean - growing regions will increase significantly, while precipitation in the central - western regions will be slightly lower than normal. Overall, the conditions for crop growth and development are good. Precipitation in the Argentine growing regions will be higher than the average [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, an increase of 239,600 tons from the previous week and 1.3807 million tons from the same period last year; the bean粕 inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 456,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 5.7202 million tons, a decrease of 600,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.2002 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.162 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3615 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean粕 nationwide was 121,260 tons, including 50,940 tons of spot trading and 70,320 tons of forward trading, down from 182,400 tons the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of bean粕 was 181,500 tons, down from 194,500 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean粕 in feed enterprises were 9.23 days, up from 9.13 days the previous week [9]. Industry News - The AgRural agency reported that as of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season had reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Most regions had good rainfall last week, and the weather forecast indicates more rainfall and favorable temperatures in the coming days [11]. - The Secex agency reported that Brazil exported 1.65022058 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 165,022.06 tons, a 73% increase from the average daily export volume in December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.0060892 million tons [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) showed that in October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of bean粕 and 900,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans at oil mills was 11.265 million tons, the ending inventory of bean粕 was 2.51 million tons, and the ending inventory of soybean oil was 490,000 tons [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of December 14, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.4 million tons, down from 1.5 million tons last year; soybean imports were 5.6 million tons, down from 6.5 million tons last year; bean粕 imports were 8.3 million tons, down from 9.2 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.7 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons last year [12]. - A commodity research estimated that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production would remain at 46.9 million tons, with an estimated range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the delayed sowing, decreasing soil moisture in the Pampas region, and long - term weather prospects require attention. The estimated planted area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's report of 17.6 million hectares [12]. - The Deral agency estimated that the 2025/26 soybean production in Paraná state would be 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate. If the estimate is correct, the state's soybean output will increase by 4% compared to the previous year. The agricultural department of Rio Grande do Sul state reported that the sowing rate of soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 89%, a 13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The rainfall ensured soil moisture and was beneficial to the sown crops. The sowing rate exceeded the historical average of 88% but was lower than 91% in the same period last year [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils showing a weak and volatile pattern, while other sectors maintain a volatile or slightly fluctuating market [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product options are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybeans (A2603) is 4,064, with a change of 3 and a trading volume of 2.36 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various options are analyzed, which are mainly used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean options is 0.97, and the open - interest PCR is 1.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option are determined from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean options is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option is analyzed, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean options is 10.035% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean Options**: The uncertainty of China's demand for US soybeans and the expected Brazilian harvest in early 2026 put pressure on the soybean market. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The price of soybean meal may maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern. A similar neutral call + put option selling strategy and long collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil Options**: High production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's inventory. A bear spread strategy for put options and a short - biased call + put option selling strategy are suggested, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut Options**: The peanut market shows a short - term upward and then rapid decline pattern. A spot long + put option buying + out - of - the - money call option selling strategy is recommended [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live Pig Options**: The live pig market is in a weak downward trend. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [10]. - **Egg Options**: The egg market is weak. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy is recommended [11]. - **Apple Options**: The apple market shows a warming - up and rising pattern. A long - biased call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [11]. - **Jujube Options**: The jujube market is in a weak and volatile pattern. A short wide - straddle option selling strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar Options**: The sugar market is in a weak and bearish pattern. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [12]. - **Cotton Options**: The cotton market shows a short - term upward and then blocked pattern. A neutral call + put option selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot are recommended [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn Options**: The corn market shows a rebound and upward pattern. A neutral call + put option selling strategy is recommended [13].

Report Summary 1. Core Information - A private exporter reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Analysts estimated that US soybean export sales for the week ending December 4, 2025, would net increase by 80 - 200 million tons, with 80 - 200 million tons for the 2025 - 26 year and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 year. US soybean meal export sales were expected to net increase by 20 - 50 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales were expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons, all for the 2025 - 26 year with 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 year [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from December 1 - 20, 2025, were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from the 831,005 tons exported in the same period last month [1] - Indonesia launched a road test for B50 biodiesel (50% palm - oil content) two weeks ago, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [1] 2. Spot Price Information | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/15 | 3050 | 2510 | 8440 | 8530 | 9750 | | 2025/12/16 | 3050 | 2520 | 8380 | 8440 | 9540 | | 2025/12/17 | 3040 | 2500 | 8310 | 8370 | 9470 | | 2025/12/18 | 3020 | 2510 | 8270 | 8330 | 9420 | | 2025/12/19 | 3010 | 2490 | 8150 | 8250 | 9230 | [1][9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The corn spot market shows a differentiated trend this week, with port prices falling and production area prices rising. In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong, while in the long - term, there is a possibility of a phased decline [3] - The starch price is expected to remain stable in the short - term due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing, and the weak spot market is driving the futures price down. In the short - term, the futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price; in the long - term, it may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - For cotton, the low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm. If the elimination accelerates, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [11] - For apples, the national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, less than last year. The spot market has a shortage of high - quality goods, and the futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] - For pigs, the spot price fell over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The improvement of long - term sentiment depends on further de - stocking in the short - term [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while some port prices declined. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [2] - **Analysis**: The short - term spot is strong, and the long - term price may decline due to potential supply pressure [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased. The import profit decreased by 107, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3000 [4] - **Analysis**: The short - term futures price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, and the long - term may seek the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 35, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 154 [6] - **Analysis**: The demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the price in Hubei increased by 0.06, and the basis increased by 51.00 [10] - **Analysis**: The future decline rate of inventory depends on the elimination rhythm, and accelerated elimination is beneficial to the second - quarter egg price [11] Apples - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained unchanged, and the national inventory decreased by 102.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 131.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 41.00 [14][15] - **Analysis**: The futures market is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 100.00 [15] - **Analysis**: There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, and the long - term improvement depends on short - term de - stocking [15]

Group 1 - The "Ganwei" brand has been awarded the top position in the "2025 China Regional Agricultural Image Brand Influence Index TOP100," achieving a "five consecutive championships" status [1] - Five other brands, including "Jingning Apple," "Minqin Honey Melon," "Lanzhou Lily," "Qingyang Apple," and "Min County Angelica," have also made it to the top 100 list [1] - "Ganwei" is a provincial public brand meticulously developed by Gansu Province, encompassing a matrix system of 55 regional public brands and 750 enterprise trademarks [1] Group 2 - As of November this year, there are 100 authorized "Ganwei" stores nationwide [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the sales revenue of "Ganwei" agricultural products reached 29.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.76% [2] - Over 170 types of specialty agricultural products from Gansu are exported to more than 100 countries and regions, with export value achieving double-digit growth for two consecutive years [2]

Core Insights - The national exhibition industry is experiencing a robust year-end, with several key exhibitions scheduled that focus on industry frontiers and international cooperation, showcasing the sector's resilience and market potential for future growth Group 1: Upcoming Major Exhibitions - The 2025 Hainan International Health and Wellness Industry Expo will take place from December 26 to 28, focusing on innovation and cooperation in the health tourism sector under the free trade port policy [1] - The 2025 Asian Humanoid Robot Industry Development Conference and Exhibition will occur from December 26 to 28 in Shenzhen, featuring a comprehensive display of the entire industry chain's technology and products [2] - The 2025 Computing Power Internet Conference is set for December 24 to 25 in Chengdu, aiming to explore cutting-edge technologies and industry development paths [3] Group 2: Specific Themes and Objectives - The Shanghai International Tea Trade Expo will be held from December 25 to 28, emphasizing digital transformation in the tea industry with a focus on blockchain traceability and AI applications [6] - The 2025 Chengdu International Health Consumption Expo will take place from December 26 to 28, targeting comprehensive health needs across various demographics and sectors [7] - The inaugural MUSA Developer Conference by Moore Threads will be held from December 19 to 20 in Beijing, focusing on the full-function GPU ecosystem and the release of a new GPU architecture [8]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月21日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 本周受大豆拍卖加速、加拿大官员可能访华信息刺激，菜系油粕表现偏弱，其中菜油受美国EIA政策发 布推迟及日元加息、原因走弱等宏观题材影响，大幅下行。总体来看，目前菜系油粕走势反映出重 新"国际化"的趋势，但菜籽进口的潜在高榨利仍使单边估值承压明显。 ICE菜籽创新低 近期外盘ICE菜籽下跌加速，01合约已经接近580加元/吨关口，12月至今下跌接近70加元/吨。外盘菜籽 走弱主要受到AAFC12月报告将25/26年度结转库存上调至295万吨影响。值得注意的是，加拿大官方将 25/26出口目标从700万吨调整到800万吨，同时压榨保持在1200万吨。从目前出口进度情况来看，800万 吨的目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has authorized the European Union (EU) to implement trade countermeasures against the United States in a long-standing olive trade dispute, further straining the already tense bilateral economic relations [1] Group 1: Trade Dispute Details - The WTO's arbitration body ruled in October 2025 that the EU can impose countermeasures on U.S. goods valued at up to $13.64 million annually due to the olive trade dispute [1] - The EU has requested authorization from the WTO to suspend tariff concessions and other obligations on U.S. imports, with a list of affected U.S. products to be published in due course [1] Group 2: Impact on Market Shares - Since the U.S. imposed tariffs on Spanish olives in August 2018, Spain's market share in the U.S. has plummeted from 49% in 2017 to 19% in 2024 [2] - As of August this year, the overall tax burden on Spanish olives has reached 46% due to an additional 15% tariff on EU goods [2] Group 3: U.S. Response and Trade Relations - A U.S. trade representative stated that the WTO ruling will not affect the existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Spanish olives, which are intended to protect U.S. producers from unfair trade imports [2] - Despite historical ties, U.S.-EU relations have become increasingly strained over the past year, with the U.S. threatening reciprocal measures against the EU in response to significant fines imposed on American tech companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's agricultural product exports have significantly increased, with a focus on quality and efficiency in the supply chain, enhancing the international market presence of local specialties [1][2]. Group 1: Export Statistics - In the first 11 months of this year, Guangdong's agricultural product export volume reached 6.573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, covering 214 countries and regions [1]. - The supply of agricultural products from Guangdong to Hong Kong and Macau ranked first in the country, with a total supply of 2.58 million tons, accounting for 67.4% of the national total [1]. Group 2: Quality Control Measures - The Guangdong Customs has implemented a comprehensive quality safety control system, including disease monitoring and toxic substance residue monitoring, ensuring that every batch of exported products meets quality standards [1]. - The customs authority provides full-process guidance to companies, helping them improve product quality, as exemplified by the export of 1,405 tons of honey pomelo by a local company, valued at approximately 1.85 million USD [1]. Group 3: Industry Upgrading and Support - The Guangdong Customs supports "chain leader" enterprises in brand building and deep processing, with Taishan eel exports accounting for over 60% of the national total [1]. - The Guangdong Yuen Hong Aquatic Group has expanded its international market presence with the help of customs guidance, adding six new registered eel farming sites in the past two years [1]. Group 4: Fresh Product Export Efficiency - Guangdong Customs has established green channels for the inspection of fresh agricultural products, implementing priority inspections and a "5+2" appointment system to maintain product freshness [2]. - The customs authority has reduced the clearance time for fresh milk supply to Hong Kong from 72 hours to 6 hours, achieving same-day delivery [2]. - Guangdong's lychee production accounts for 60% of the national total, with efficient customs clearance enabling rapid global distribution [2].

Core Insights - The event "Winter Solstice Goodies · Taste of Qianzhai" held on December 20-21, 2025, showcased the integration of agriculture, culture, tourism, and commerce in Qianzhai County, promoting local products and enhancing brand visibility [1][2] - Qianzhai County is focusing on transforming ecological advantages into economic benefits, with a variety of agricultural products being developed and marketed, including certified green foods and geographical indications [2] Group 1 - The event featured a range of local specialties such as Qianzhai beef and lamb, black barley cookies, honey, and traditional handicrafts, aimed at enhancing consumer engagement and promoting local culture [1] - The event included interactive experiences like archery and live streaming sales, which attracted significant public participation and increased the event's reach [1] Group 2 - Qianzhai County has successfully cultivated various agricultural products, with 11 products certified as national green A-level foods and three products recognized as geographical indications [2] - The county has maintained a 100% pass rate for green product inspections over the past five years, highlighting its commitment to quality and sustainability in agriculture [2] - Cultural heritage initiatives have also been recognized, with the Qianzhai Datun Feast listed as a national intangible cultural heritage project and numerous local crafts included in provincial heritage lists [2]