Report Information - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs in August is expected to increase significantly, with high enthusiasm among farmers for selling. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and spot prices may continue to face pressure. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract fluctuates weakly following the spot market. In the medium - to - long - term for far - month contracts, although supply shows a slight increase, contracts like 2511 and 2601 are in the peak demand season, and with positive factors such as the anti - involution high - quality development initiative and strengthened environmental protection, the downside space is relatively limited [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 19th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,425 lots to 181,426 lots. - Spot: On the 19th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.67 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pig pens is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is currently low, with most in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and orders from slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughtering progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 18, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,400 heads, 800 heads less than the previous day but 1,400 heads more than a week ago. - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in July. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released, so there is still pressure on slaughter volume, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided in the text. 3. Data Overview - Profit: As of August 15, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head. - Piglet price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15 was 484 yuan/head, 33 yuan/head lower than the previous week. - Slaughter volume: In the week of August 15, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.6335 million heads, an increase of 30,100 heads compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.88%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads compared to the previous week, with an average daily increase of 0.96%. - Planned slaughter volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase compared to July. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.82 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%, and an increase of 1.65 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.31% [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming industry has transitioned from rapid growth to a stable phase, with capacity regulation becoming a new norm, positively impacting the industry. The company is entering a new development stage, focusing on efficiency, cost reduction, and improving free cash flow [4][20]. - Future capital expenditures for the company are expected to decrease significantly, with domestic capacity expansion slowing down, leading to healthier high-quality development in domestic operations. The company is also poised for growth in overseas markets [4][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry New Normal - The Chinese pig farming industry has entered a new normal characterized by reduced price volatility and an elevated profit center. The proportion of large-scale farming entities has increased significantly, with those producing over 500 pigs annually now accounting for 70% of total output. This shift has led to more stable production capacities and tighter financing conditions, limiting large-scale expansions [8][27][36]. - The industry is now subject to long-term capacity regulation, which is expected to stabilize production and enhance profitability for quality enterprises [8][27]. Company’s New Stage - The company has entered a new development phase, with capital expenditures projected to decline from a peak of 461 billion yuan in 2020 to 124 billion yuan by 2024, and further down to 50 billion yuan thereafter. Free cash flow is expected to improve significantly, reaching 179 billion yuan in 2024 [9][22]. - The company maintains a cost advantage, with a projected complete cost of 12.1 yuan/kg by June 2025, the lowest among listed companies. This cost efficiency, combined with stable profit growth, positions the company favorably for future cash flow generation [9][22]. Overseas Expansion - The company is well-positioned to compete globally, with plans to expand its operations in overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam, where there is significant growth potential. The company aims to establish a substantial presence in the Vietnamese market by 2030, targeting 450,000 breeding sows and 10 million market pigs [10][39]. - The global distribution of pig production indicates that while China leads with approximately 703 million pigs, there remains considerable room for growth in countries like Vietnam, where the scale of production is still developing [10][39].

Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 17.407 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 233 million yuan, a significant increase of 784.44% compared to the previous year [1] - In Q2 2025, the total revenue was 9.699 billion yuan, up 25.17% year-on-year, while the net profit for the quarter was 115 million yuan, an increase of 68.23% [1] - The gross margin improved to 6.38%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.48%, and the net margin reached 1.38%, up 366.71% [1] Cost and Expenses - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 844 million yuan, accounting for 4.85% of revenue, which is a decrease of 4.78% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a 14.94% increase in operating costs, attributed to higher sales volumes of feed, poultry, and pigs [3] - Financial expenses rose by 20.89% due to increased interest expenses from the acquisition of a poultry business [4] Balance Sheet Changes - Significant changes in financial items were noted, including a 441.96% increase in derivative financial assets due to increased hedging profits [3] - Accounts receivable increased by 42.75% due to the acquisition of a poultry business, while inventory rose by 57.14% for the same reason [3] - The company’s interest-bearing debt increased by 44.22% to 6.067 billion yuan, indicating a rise in leverage [1] Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow per share was reported at -0.56 yuan, a drastic decrease of 1000.32% year-on-year, indicating cash flow challenges [1] - The net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 153.17%, attributed to increased cash payments for investments [4] - The net cash flow from financing activities surged by 665.7%, primarily due to increased bank loans [4] Business Model and Market Position - The company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) was reported at 4%, with a historical median ROIC of 11.36%, indicating average investment returns [4] - The company relies heavily on marketing-driven performance, necessitating a deeper analysis of the underlying drivers [4] - The company has experienced cyclical performance, with a notable loss in 2023, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [4]

Summary of the Pig Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a price bottoming phase, with pig prices reaching a new low not seen in about a year and a half. This is primarily due to passive capacity reduction, ongoing production cuts driven by policy, and tightening environmental regulations [2][6]. Key Price Trends - In July 2025, the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 35.7 CNY/kg, 34.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg, reflecting year-on-year declines of 18.65%, 20.05%, and 12.8% respectively. Month-on-month, piglet prices decreased by 4.09%, while live pig and pork prices saw slight increases of 1.72% and 0.31% [2][3]. - By early August 2025, the average selling price of live pigs had dropped to 13.82 CNY/kg, continuing a downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has significantly influenced recent price movements. In early July, large-scale farms reduced output to support prices, but increased supply from smallholders later in the month exerted downward pressure on prices. Demand was weak due to seasonal factors, with expectations for improvement in late August or early September as schools reopen [4][6]. Environmental Regulations Impact - Stricter environmental policies are placing considerable pressure on small to medium-sized farms. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has intensified inspections, particularly in southern water network regions, which is expected to accelerate the upgrade or exit of outdated production capacity, promoting high-quality development in the pig farming industry [5][6]. Profitability Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, self-breeding and self-raising pigs yielded an average profit of 45.13 CNY per head, while purchased piglets continued to incur losses of 134.14 CNY per head, indicating that self-breeding remains slightly profitable while external purchases are increasingly unprofitable [3][7]. Major Companies Performance - In July 2025, major pig farming companies reported the following slaughter volumes: Muyuan (7.5 million heads, down 10.4%), Wens (3.1 million heads, up 5.24%), New Hope (1.3 million heads, up 2.07%), and Zhengbang (700,000 heads, down 2.16%). Collectively, 17 listed companies slaughtered 15.81 million heads, a 5.3% decrease month-on-month [3][9]. - The average slaughter weights for July were: Muyuan (108.57 kg), Wens (105.69 kg), and New Hope (95.81 kg), with most companies showing a decrease in average weight, indicating a continued trend towards lighter slaughter weights [3][11]. Cost Structure and Competitive Advantage - Muyuan has a significant cost advantage, with its total cost in July 2025 reported at 11.9 CNY/kg. This positions leading companies favorably to achieve good returns this year and maintain profitability into 2026 [3][12]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue facing a supply surplus in the short term, leading to a price bottoming phase. However, in the medium to long term, this situation may facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity and stabilize the market. Regulatory policies are likely to remain strict, with expectations for improved prices and profitability in the second half of the year and into 2026 as pressures ease [6][13][14]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies with clear cost advantages and high performance reliability, such as Muyuan, Wens, and Shennong Technology. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting safety and upside potential. Additionally, close attention should be paid to trade tensions and changes in import/export policies to mitigate risks associated with raw material cost fluctuations [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.14%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, increased by 2.37% and 1.70% respectively [12][14] - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price as of August 18 being 13.55 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.21 CNY/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [5][16] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to reducing production capacity in the pig farming sector to stabilize prices, with expectations of increased supply pressure in the latter half of 2025 [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with a 0.14% decline in the agricultural index, while the broader indices saw gains [12][14] - The pig farming and related feed sectors experienced the largest declines due to falling pig prices [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Farming - The average pig price has been declining, with significant supply but weak demand leading to a challenging market environment [5][16] - As of August 15, self-breeding pig farmers reported an average profit of 28 CNY per head, down 17 CNY from the previous week, while external pig purchases resulted in a loss of 157 CNY per head [17] - The government is enforcing production capacity reduction policies, which are expected to accelerate in the future [18] Broiler Chicken - As of August 15, the price of broiler chicken chicks rose to 3.80 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.52 CNY per jin, showing a slight decline [31] - The supply of chicks is tight due to reduced breeding and increased culling, leading to a potential slowdown in chick price increases [31] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with white sugar priced at 6000 CNY/ton as of August 15, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [34] - Soybean prices have seen a minor increase, with the landed price of Brazilian soybeans at 4040 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased, with an average price of 2356 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [34]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the pig prices in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces showed a downward trend, with a slight narrowing of the decline in Jiangxi by mid-month. The market was characterized by oversupply due to reduced weight from the breeding sector and seasonal consumption decline, leading to falling prices [1][1]. Price Trends - As of August 18, the average trading price of live pigs in Hunan was 13.54 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decline since the beginning of the month [1][1]. - The average trading weight of live pigs in Hunan was recorded at 124.55 kilograms, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous month [1][1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The breeding sector in both provinces continued to reduce weights, contributing to an oversupply situation in the market, which pressured prices downward [1][1]. - In August, the outflow plans from 16 sample breeding enterprises in Hunan increased by 9.74% month-on-month, while 12 sample enterprises in Jiangxi saw a 3.83% increase [1][1]. Future Outlook - Towards the end of August, there may be a rebound in pig prices due to increased demand from schools preparing for the new academic year, which typically leads to higher procurement volumes [1][1]. - Despite the ongoing supply pressure, the current low price levels suggest that the extent of price declines may be limited, with potential support from seasonal demand factors [1][1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][63]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the pig farming sector, the potential for valuation reassessment, and the strong growth in the pet economy, particularly for domestic brands [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The average price of pigs as of August 14, 2025, is 13.74 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28 CNY/kg. The price of 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head, down 33 CNY/head from the previous week [12]. - The report suggests that the swine industry is moving towards a self-regulatory and stabilizing phase, with top companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture being recommended for investment [12][5]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.60 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [21][22]. 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Huayuan Biological, Reap Biological, and Placo showing improved performance. The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use is seen as a significant technological advancement [33][5]. 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates an increase in soybean meal prices, with the average price reaching 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week. Companies involved in transgenic seed commercialization are recommended for investment [38][42]. 5. Feed Industry - Feed prices are fluctuating, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month. The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending companies like Haida Group [44][46]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet economy is booming, with the market size for pet consumption in urban areas projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 7.5%. Companies like Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares are recommended for investment [53][54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][86] Core Views - In July, pig farming companies experienced a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a reduction in average weight continuing. The total number of pigs slaughtered by 18 companies was 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average price of pigs has shown a slight rebound, with the national average price on August 15 being 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs slaughtered also saw a slight increase [21][29] - The poultry sector is experiencing mixed trends, with broiler prices stabilizing after a previous increase, while chick prices remain high. The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, up 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week [48][51] - The demand for eggs is expected to grow seasonally, with the average price of eggs at 6.40 yuan/kg from August 11 to August 14, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - July saw a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a total of 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% and a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in July was 128.59 kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.01 kg [18][21] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 14.65 yuan/kg in July, a month-on-month increase of 1.90% [18][21] - The industry is under pressure from supply increases, with expectations of a 5.26% to 7.01% increase in slaughter numbers in August [43] Poultry Sector - Broiler prices have stabilized after previous increases, with the average price at 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.06 yuan/kg [48][51] - Chick prices remain high, with the average price at 3.58 yuan per chick, up 0.45 yuan week-on-week [48] - The demand for eggs is expected to rise seasonally, with the average price at 6.40 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have increased, with the DCE soybean meal contract closing at 3137 yuan/ton on August 15, a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan/ton [64] - The current market conditions are influenced by USDA reports and trade policies affecting supply and demand dynamics [64]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant transformation in industry policies, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation. Future growth stocks will likely prioritize technological content and innovative models while mobilizing existing production factors [5][16] - The report anticipates that the industry's profit center will recover due to clear capacity regulation policies and a strong commitment to maintaining stable pig prices [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, particularly technology-driven and service-oriented ecological platform companies like Dekang Agriculture, as well as leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The latest pig price is 13.67 CNY/kg (down 0.06 CNY/kg MoM), with an average slaughter weight of 127.82 kg (up 0.02 kg MoM). The price for 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head (down 33 CNY/head MoM). Short-term price declines may be due to policy-induced weight reductions [4][15] - Dekang reported a pre-fair value profit of 1.273 billion CNY for H1 2025, a 251% YoY increase, and is expected to achieve over 1.5 billion CNY in profits from its swine segment, with a per-head profit exceeding 300 CNY [5][15] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 3.65 CNY/chick (unchanged MoM), and the price of broiler chickens is 3.65 CNY/kg (up 1.39% MoM, down 4.7% YoY). Seasonal factors and structural price increases in downstream products may lead to a price recovery in the industry [6][16] - The report identifies two main lines of focus: high-quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [6][16] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization, which is expected to lead to volume and profit growth [7][17] - The report notes a slight decline in water product prices due to the seasonal arrival of new fish varieties, with various fish species showing mixed price changes [7][17] 4. Pet Industry - The pet category saw a month-on-month increase in sales growth in July, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs and export fluctuations impacting the sector [9][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of leading companies in the pet sector, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, which are expected to maintain high growth rates and drive industry concentration [9][21] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the new season's soybean harvest area, tightening the supply-demand relationship for U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, which may lead to an upward shift in soybean meal prices [11][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - In July, pig prices peaked and then declined, with the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 35.73 CNY/kg, 14.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -4.09%, +1.72%, and +0.31% [1][16] - The supply side saw a significant impact from the supply rhythm, with a notable increase in the number of pigs being sold by smallholders, leading to supply pressure [19] - The demand side faced challenges due to weak consumption during the summer heat, resulting in sluggish sales for slaughterhouses [19] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [19][24] - Policy measures aimed at reducing production capacity and controlling weight have begun to show effects, with expectations for a gradual reduction in industry capacity [24][25] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - July pig prices were influenced by supply dynamics, with a peak followed by a decline due to increased selling by smallholders and controlled sales by larger farms [19] - The average price of live pigs fell to 13.82 CNY/kg by August 11 [1][16] Production Capacity Trends - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.02% [19][24] - Data from various sources indicated a halt in growth for breeding sows for the first time since February [19][24] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies have focused on "reducing production capacity, controlling weight, and regulating secondary fattening," which are expected to stabilize the market in the long term [24][25] - Stricter environmental regulations are anticipated to pressure smaller farms, leading to the elimination of outdated production capacity [25] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In July, the average sales prices for major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope Liuhe showed slight increases, with prices at 14.30 CNY/kg, 14.58 CNY/kg, and 14.44 CNY/kg respectively [9][32] - The total sales volume for listed companies decreased by 5.30% month-on-month, with notable declines in companies like Muyuan Foods [33][36] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The cost of production is a critical factor, with Muyuan Foods reporting a cost of 11.90 CNY/kg in July, indicating a competitive advantage over peers [41][42] - The profitability of listed companies is expected to remain strong, with significant year-on-year growth in net profits anticipated for the first half of 2025 [44][47]