绿色转型不是一蹴而就的，靠的是锚定目标、久久为功。 增绿就是增优势，植树就是植未来。河北塞罕坝，三代林场建设者吃黑莜面、喝冰雪水、睡地窨子，用 60多年的时间，创造了从"一棵松"到百万亩人工林的生态奇迹，探索出林业碳汇、林下经济等绿色产 业。 放眼全国，这样的战略定力结出累累硕果。非化石能源消费占比由2020年的16%提高到2025年的20%以 上；单位GDP能耗持续下降，成为全球能耗强度下降最快的国家之一；森林覆盖率超过25%，成为全球 增绿最多最快的国家……一步一个脚印，目标变成现实。 有光追光，有风逐风，中国经济向绿而行，靠的是各地因地制宜、各展所长。 山西太原，太钢集团作为传统钢铁企业，高能耗、高排放一度是难以撕掉的标签。企业瞄准高端不锈钢 领域攻关，研发出厚度仅0.02毫米的"手撕钢"，广泛应用于航空航天、精密仪器等高端制造领域。一家 企业的蝶变，彰显发展智慧。 前不久发布的中国经济年报中，一项数据具有标志性意义：2025年，我国新能源汽车国内新车销售量占 比突破50%。 回看2020年国务院办公厅印发的《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021—2035年）》，当时设定的目标是： 到2025年，新能源汽车 ...

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 9 | | 锡：回落整理 | 10 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 13 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 13 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 17 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：窄幅震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 24 | | ...

上海市第十六届人大四次会议2月3日上午在世博中心开幕。上海市市长龚正作《政府工作报告》。报告 表示，今年要深化国际经济中心建设。聚焦建设现代化产业体系，持续巩固壮大实体经济根基，在石 化、 钢铁等行业持续开展数智技术、绿色技术改造和产线升级，在 集成电路、 生物医药、 人工智能等 领域加快实施一批重大产业项目，积极支持智能网联 新能源汽车、 海洋经济、 低空经济、航空航天、 卫星互联网等产业发展，培育特色数字产业集群，大力推动服务业扩能提质、集聚发展。 ...

积极支持智能网联新能源汽车、海洋经济、低空经济、航空航天、卫星互联网等产业发展。 报告表示，今年要深化国际经济中心建设。聚焦建设现代化产业体系，持续巩固壮大实体经济根基，在 石化、钢铁等行业持续开展数智技术、绿色技术改造和产线升级，在集成电路、生物医药、人工智能等 领域加快实施一批重大产业项目，积极支持智能网联新能源汽车、海洋经济、低空经济、航空航天、卫 星互联网等产业发展，培育特色数字产业集群，大力推动服务业扩能提质、集聚发展。 据上观新闻，上海市第十六届人大四次会议2月3日上午在世博中心开幕。上海市市长龚正作《政府工作 报告》。 ...

它旨在总结过去一周的关键市场事件、提供分析 J.P. Morgan亚太地区专业销售评论（日期：2026年2月1日）的详细内容总结。 该文档涵盖了能源、矿业、材料和可再生能源等多个大宗商品领域的市场动态、分析和关键事件。 J.P. Morgan亚太地区专业销售评论（日期：2026年2月1日）的详细内容总结。 该文档涵盖了能源、矿业、材料和可再生能源等多个大宗商品领域的市场动态、分析和关键事件。 文档核心概览 这是一份面向机构客户的内部市场评论和销售材料，由J.P. Morgan亚太区能源与矿业专业销售团队（Anmol Mehta）撰写。 文档核心概览 这是一份面向机构客户的内部市场评论和销售材料，由J.P. Morgan亚太区能源与矿业专业销售团队（Anmol Mehta）撰写。 它旨在总结过去一周的关键市场事件、提供分析观点，并预告即将到来的催化剂（如财报、数据发布）。 核心议题围绕美联储新主席提名引发的市场震荡、黄金期权仓位分析、地缘政治风险（伊朗）以及各主要商品 （铜、原油）的基本面展开。 详细内容总结 1. 宏观与政策焦点 美联储新主席提名（凯文·沃什）： 市场反应：其提名在周五（1月31日）引发金属市 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3098 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 50,000 contracts [2][11] - Spot prices decreased, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price down 20 CNY/ton to 2920 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price down 20 CNY/ton to 3180 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume was 46,800 tons [2][11] - National construction material inventory increased by 6.76% to 3.3745 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory rose by 2.74% to 2.1083 million tons, indicating increased supply pressure [2][11] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 783 CNY/ton, down 8.5 CNY/ton or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 300,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 2,000 contracts [3][12] - Australian shipments decreased by 170,000 tons to 18.204 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased by 143.7 million tons to 7.006 million tons, leading to a global shipment recovery [3][12] - Iron production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.2798 million tons, with continued inventory accumulation at ports and steel mills [3][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1141.5 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton or 1.21%, with a decrease in open interest by 19,459 contracts [4][12] - In the Shanxi Linfen region, the price of fat coal was lowered by 35 CNY to 690 CNY/ton, while other coal prices showed slight increases [4][12] - With the approach of the Spring Festival, coal supply is expected to tighten as more mines enter holiday shutdowns, while downstream demand remains weak [4][12] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1680.5 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton or 2.38%, with a decrease in open interest by 378 contracts [5][13] - The spot market for coke remained stable, with the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port unchanged at 1470 CNY/ton [5][13] - Steel mill profits remain low, leading to reduced demand for coke as many mills are halting operations for maintenance [5][13] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures contract closed at 5834 CNY/ton, down 0.88%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,833 contracts [6][14] - The market price ranged from 5620 to 5850 CNY/ton, with a 20 CNY/ton decrease in Inner Mongolia [6][14] - Steel mill demand for silicon manganese showed some improvement due to pre-holiday stocking, but overall supply and demand dynamics remain weak [6][14] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5624 CNY/ton, down 1.02%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,038 contracts [7][15] - The price range for silicon iron was approximately 5300 to 5350 CNY/ton, with a 20 CNY/ton increase in Inner Mongolia [7][15] - Steel mill inquiries for silicon iron are declining as the market approaches the end of the pre-holiday period, leading to reduced trading activity [7][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade weakly in resonance with market sentiment [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to trade weakly as cost expectations loosen, and silicomanganese is expected to trade weakly in resonance with commodity sentiment [2][12]. - Coke is expected to trade at high levels, and coking coal is expected to trade at high levels as events unfold [2][18][19]. - Thermal coal supply and demand are in a weak balance, and prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][23]. - Logs are expected to see a slight price increase [2][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The open interest decreased by 20,544 to 520,684 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased, and some basis and price spreads changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamental Data**: In the week of January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons [8][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various production, inventory, and price data from the China Iron and Steel Association, and an accident at Baotou Steel's plate plant. Also, BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China implemented export license management for some steel products [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Various price spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity prices will be increased. There were price quotes and production data of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and manganese ore from different sources. River Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased, and manganese ore inventory increased [12][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) decreased. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke types remained stable. Some basis and price spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased, and the coking coal online auction had a higher failure rate and mixed price changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: There were price data of thermal coal from different regions, including origin, port, and overseas prices. The February long - term contract prices of thermal coal in some regions decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port market was stable with weak trading. Some Indonesian coal mines may have a significant production cut. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [23][24]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were price, trading volume, and open - interest data of log futures contracts. Spot prices of various log types in different markets had different fluctuations [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [28].

Group 1 - CITIC Securities predicts that the establishment of an independent new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration will stabilize revenue expectations for energy storage and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners [1] - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements shifts the industry focus from cost competition to value creation, gradually revealing investment value [1] - CITIC Securities expects a rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations by 2026 and is optimistic about leading companies in the energy storage industry chain [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities notes that the risk appetite in the market continued to decline in January, with high dividend sectors performing better than in December, particularly in oil, coal, and steel [1] - Looking ahead to February, Huatai Securities suggests that as market volatility increases, the allocation value of high dividend sectors has marginally improved compared to the previous month, recommending a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1] Group 3 - CITIC Jin Investment indicates that the white liquor industry is approaching a turning point in its adjustment phase, coinciding with the "five bottoms" stage and the capital market's "three lows and one high" [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival season is seen as a potential catalyst for the white liquor sector, presenting a cyclical bottom allocation opportunity in the capital market [2]

Market Overview - On February 2, the domestic commodity futures market saw widespread limit-downs, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, copper, nickel, crude oil, and lithium carbonate all hitting the limit. The night session closed with the main silver contract down 20%, tin down 12.38%, crude oil down 4.8%, and gold down 3.86% [4][15]. Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The National Bureau of Statistics noted that some manufacturing sectors entered a traditional off-season, coupled with insufficient market demand, leading to a decline in manufacturing sentiment [4][15]. Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders received were 107.82 million deadweight tons, down 4.6% year-on-year, representing 69.0% of the global total. As of the end of December, the hand-held order volume was 27.44 million deadweight tons, up 31.5% year-on-year, making up 66.8% of the global total. China has maintained its leading position in the international shipbuilding market for 16 consecutive years [4][15]. Steel Market - On February 2, the national main port iron ore transactions were 817,000 tons, a decrease of 9.9% month-on-month. The transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders was 46,800 tons, down 16.5% month-on-month [5][16]. - Last week, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking was 85.47%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The profit margin for steel mills was 39.39%, down 1.30 percentage points week-on-week and down 9.53 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons week-on-week [5][16]. - The total supply of five major steel products last week was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week. The production of rebar increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production increased by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, an increase of 214,300 tons week-on-week [5][16]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Steel - Rebar production continued to increase slightly, with a total output of 1.9983 million tons, and total inventory rose by 234,300 tons to 4.7553 million tons. Demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons. The current supply of rebar is recovering, but demand remains weak, leading to a seasonal downturn in the market. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with continued narrow fluctuations [6][17]. - Hot-rolled steel production saw a slight increase, with actual output at 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 22,000 tons, but the pace of reduction has slowed. Demand increased slightly by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. Traders are cautious about future market conditions, adopting a "low inventory, fast turnover" strategy [7][18]. Price Strategy - The short-term trading range for rebar 2605 is referenced at 3,050-3,200 yuan/ton, while the hot-rolled 2605 contract is referenced at 3,250-3,350 yuan/ton [8][19]. Alloy Market - The alloy market is experiencing increased volatility, with emotional trading becoming evident. Overall supply remains low, and production levels have stabilized. The cost side is seeing gradual increases, but fundamental support remains insufficient. Steel mills' production intensity is stable, and the winter restocking phase is nearing its end. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern [9][20].