中信证券指出，Grundartangi铝冶炼厂2024年产量为30.8万吨，本次影响产能约20万吨/年，约占全球产 能的0.3%。此前，8月，南拓32公告其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及 产能50万吨。Mozal停产概率较高，或有成为铝行业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰 动抬头苗头初现，持续看好铝板块盈利估值齐升行情。 据市场消息，铝生产商世纪铝业近日公告其因电气设备故障，暂停了位于冰岛Grundartangi铝冶炼厂两 条电解槽生产线中的一条。此次停产使该冶炼厂的产量减少约三分之二。世纪铝业目前正在进行影响评 估，并制定获取替换设备和恢复全面生产的时间表，计划在11月6日举行的季度财报电话会议上提供有 关最新信息。 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors, including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It analyzes the impact of geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data on market movements. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Commodity Futures**: US oil and Brent crude rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventories. International precious metals also increased, supported by multiple factors. London base metals mostly rose, and domestic futures contracts had a mix of gains and losses [3][4]. - **Financial Markets**: A-shares had a narrow - range oscillation, while the Hong Kong stock market declined. The report also mentioned policy initiatives in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as well as the investment outlooks of well - known fund managers [35]. Important News Macro News - Russia's Federal Council abolished the "Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement" with the US. - From October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year but increased by 7% compared to the previous month. - Trump's peace efforts faced setbacks as Russia launched attacks on Ukraine. - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high in the first three quarters [8][9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE, increased. - China's methanol port inventory rose. - US crude exports and production decreased, and commercial crude inventory declined. - The US sanctioned Russian oil companies [11][12][15]. Metal Futures - The new chairman of LBMA called for revitalizing the UK's gold futures trading. - Century Aluminum's subsidiary halted a production line due to a fault. - China's September refined copper and alumina production increased. - Polysilicon production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. - Environmental controls affected lead - related transportation in Hebei. - China's September industrial silicon production increased. - Angola's first large - scale copper mine is about to start production [17][18][21]. Black - Series Futures - Some coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production, and steel mills in Northeast China had mixed production status. - Inner Mongolia closed 4.3 - meter coke ovens and implemented cement production curbs. - Vale's iron ore production and sales increased in Q3. - National key steel product production, inventory, and demand data showed changes [23][26]. Agricultural Futures - Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased. - US soybeans were stored instead of exported. - Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased. - Russia lowered wheat export tariffs. - China's pork prices may have reached the annual low. - Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase [28][30][33]. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares had a narrow - range movement with sector rotation. The Hong Kong stock market declined. - Shenzhen introduced a plan to promote high - quality M&A. - HKEX is collaborating on multiple projects with the mainland. - Well - known fund managers adjusted their portfolios [35]. Industry News - China released a new energy vehicle technology roadmap. - Small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. - The game version numbers were released. - China's geographic information industry is expected to grow. - Civil aviation industry data showed growth. - Nanjing introduced a housing provident fund policy for multi - child families [39][41]. Overseas News - US federal debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown continued. - Trump canceled a meeting with Putin, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. - Japan plans new economic measures, and India may reach a trade deal with the US. - The Fed plans to relax bank capital requirements. - Japan's exports increased, and UK inflation data affected market expectations [44][49]. International Stocks - US stocks declined due to trade concerns and disappointing earnings. - European stocks had a mixed performance. - Singapore plans to support listed companies. - Tesla and IBM released their Q3 financial reports [50][51]. Commodities - Oil prices rose, precious metals increased, and base metals mostly went up. - Vale's iron ore production reached a high level [52][54]. Bonds - The domestic bond market had a narrow - range movement, and US bond yields declined. - Indonesia plans to issue RMB - denominated bonds, and SoftBank plans to raise funds through bond issuance [55][60]. Foreign Exchange - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high. - The RMB and other currencies had exchange rate fluctuations [61]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released, including Japan's stock and bond transactions, China's RMB payment share, and various countries' inflation and consumer confidence data. - Multiple central bank events and important conferences are scheduled, such as China's central bank open - market operations and international industry conferences [64][66].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa has signed a 10-year hydroelectric supply contract with the New York Power Authority and plans to invest approximately $60 million to modernize part of its aluminum smelting facility in Massena, New York [1] Investment Plans - The company will invest about $60 million for modernization efforts at its Massena aluminum smelting plant [1] - The investment is part of a new hydroelectric supply contract with the New York Power Authority [1] Import Tariffs Impact - Alcoa's CEO, William Oplinger, stated that the 50% tariff on imported aluminum has not incentivized the company to restart idle capacity at its Warwick smelting plant in Indiana [1] - Restarting the Warwick facility could cost around $100 million and take one to two years [1] - Oplinger emphasized that tariffs may change over time, indicating that the company is cautious about making significant investments based solely on current tariff conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation reported a significant increase in net income for Q3 2025, driven by rising domestic aluminum prices, despite facing challenges from tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.995 billion, up from $2.904 billion year-over-year [2]. - Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $232 million, compared to $90 million in the same period last year, marking a nearly 158% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted net loss was $6 million, down from a profit of $135 million in the previous year [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, a decrease from $455 million year-over-year [1][2]. Production and Operations - Alumina production increased by 4% quarter-over-quarter to 2.5 million tons, attributed to reduced maintenance at Australian refineries [2]. - Aluminum segment production rose by 1% to 579,000 tons, mainly due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain [2]. - Total alumina shipments remained flat at 2.2 million tons, while aluminum shipments decreased by 3% due to trade volume adjustments [2]. Major Developments - The net income of $232 million included gains from the sale of Ma'aden joint venture interests, offset by restructuring costs [3]. - The company announced a long-term energy contract with the New York Power Authority and plans to invest approximately $60 million in the Massena smelter [3]. - Alcoa received support from the U.S. and Australian governments for the joint development of a gallium plant at the Wagerup refinery [3]. Market Context - U.S. aluminum prices have outpaced international markets, with Midwest premiums soaring 113% since early June, influenced by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. - The company anticipates an additional $50 million increase in tariff costs for Q4 2025, indicating ongoing trade impacts [3]. Future Outlook - Alcoa expects total alumina production to remain between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons for 2025, with aluminum production projected at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons [4]. - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million, while the aluminum segment may face a $20 million adverse impact due to operational inefficiencies [4].

港交所消息：10月17日， 贝莱德 公司持有的 中国铝业 H股多头头寸从4.81%增至5.46%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.490 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.579 billion yuan, an increase of 4.87% year-on-year [2][6] - The third quarter of 2025 showed strong performance with a revenue of 10.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.39%, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.89% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow reached 6.898 billion yuan, an increase of 8.56% year-on-year, and the asset-liability ratio decreased to 51.06%, down 2.32 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable situation of simultaneous growth in coal and aluminum as coal prices have started to recover and the fourth quarter is typically a peak season [3] - The company has been increasing its cash dividend payout from 22.51 billion yuan in 2022 to an expected 17.92 billion yuan in 2024, with a rising dividend payout ratio [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.41, 2.67, and 2.96 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 31.005 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.490 billion yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 3.579 billion yuan [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.576 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.585 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [2] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from rising coal prices and an expected increase in demand during the peak season, which could lead to improved performance in both coal and aluminum sectors [3] Dividend Policy - The company has shown a commitment to shareholder returns with increasing cash dividends and a planned share buyback for employee incentives [3] Earnings Forecast - The projected EPS for the next three years indicates a positive growth trend, with a decreasing PE ratio suggesting potential undervaluation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Shenhua Co., Ltd. experienced a slight decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in coal prices, which weakened the profitability of its coal products [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1] - Revenue for the quarters was as follows: Q1 at 9.6 billion yuan (up 17% year-on-year), Q2 at 10.8 billion yuan (up 8% year-on-year), and Q3 at 10.6 billion yuan (up 5% year-on-year) [1] - Net profit for the quarters was: Q1 at 700 million yuan (down 35% year-on-year), Q2 at 1.2 billion yuan (up 0.2% year-on-year), and Q3 at 1.6 billion yuan (up 26% year-on-year), with Q3 showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33% [1] Market Position and Product Offering - The company is a major supplier of premium coal for metallurgical enterprises, particularly for blast furnace injection, and holds a leading position in the industry with a coking coal output rate of approximately 75% [1] - The company produces rare coal types such as smokeless coal and lean coal, which are in high demand [1] Price Trends and Profitability - According to Wind data, the factory price of lean coal in Xuchang, Henan, was 1,009 yuan per ton in Q3, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19% but an increase of 8% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The recovery in coal prices is expected to improve the operating capabilities of the sector [1] Strategic Advantages - As a leading player in the aluminum industry, the company benefits from cost advantages associated with its dual-base electrolytic aluminum operations in Yunnan and Xinjiang, enjoying low-carbon premiums in hydroelectric aluminum [1] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum business is highly elastic, indicating potential for improved margins as coal prices recover [1] - The company's valuation is anticipated to be reassessed in light of these developments [1]

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date and Authors - Date: October 22, 2025 - Authors: Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, Zhang Lei from Hongyuan Futures' Metal Research Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tariff uncertainties and a slow decline in domestic social inventories may cause aluminum prices to fluctuate. For alumina, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit price drops. For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariffs exist, but expectations of Fed rate cuts and reduced tapering, along with other factors, may lead to prices first weakening and then strengthening [2][4][5][6] Summary by Section 1. Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: New projects like the bauxite recycling in Qingzhen, the spherical alumina project of Yishitong, and the alumina projects in Guangxi and Indonesia are expected to increase production in October. Domestic bauxite production may increase while imports decrease due to new bauxite mines' production [3] - **Cost and price**: The average full - cost of alumina production is around 2850 yuan/ton, with regional differences. The near - far month contract prices show a Contango structure [22] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina in China increased last week, with an increase in the warehouse and factory inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a decrease in port inventories [15] - **Investment strategy**: Due to the expected loose supply - demand but limited price decline space, investors are advised to short at high prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost is about 16150 yuan/ton. Domestic production may increase in October due to new projects, and imports may also rise with the commissioning of overseas projects [5][57] - **Inventory**: Social inventories, bonded area inventories, and inventories in major exchanges all decreased last week [46] - **Investment strategy**: Considering tariff uncertainties, Fed policies, and production trends, investors are advised to go long on dips and pay attention to support and resistance levels for both SHFE and LME aluminum [5] 3. Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: Overseas waste aluminum exports to China may decline, but domestic waste aluminum production may increase. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may decrease in October [6][83] - **Cost and profit**: The full - cost of primary and secondary aluminum alloys is 20800 yuan/ton and 20500 yuan/ton respectively, with different profit and capacity utilization trends [6] - **Inventory**: Social inventories and raw material and finished - product inventories of recycled aluminum decreased last week [84][86] - **Investment strategy**: Given tariff uncertainties and supply - demand trends, investors are advised to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys at low prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] 4. Basis and Spread Analysis - **Alumina**: The basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and the spread is negative. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) spread is positive and (3 - 15) is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [40][43] - **Aluminum Alloys**: The casting aluminum alloy basis is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread is negative. Investors are recommended to short the basis at high prices on a short - term and light - position basis. The spread between electrolytic aluminum and casting aluminum alloy futures is positive, and investors are advised to go long on the spread at low prices [67][70]

Core Insights - The article discusses the production trends and forecasts for China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) industry, highlighting a slight decline in production for 2025 while showing overall growth in the first eight months of 2025 [1]. Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production is projected to be 3.8 million tons in August 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) reached 30.138 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 2.2% compared to the previous year [1]. Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1]. Research Report - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 Development Strategy and Investment Opportunity Forecast Report for China's Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) Industry," indicating a focus on strategic planning and investment opportunities within the sector [1].

Group 1 - Canada has decided to reduce tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products imported from China and the U.S. to alleviate domestic pressure amid trade disputes [1][2] - The Canadian government has issued a new exemption measure aimed at protecting workers and families from retaliatory measures, particularly in downstream industries [2] - The exemption applies to specific steel and aluminum products that Canada does not produce, which are essential for public health, national security, manufacturing, agriculture, and food [1][2] Group 2 - The Canadian government previously imposed tariffs on a range of steel and aluminum products from the U.S. and China as a retaliatory measure, following similar actions from the U.S. [2] - China has responded to Canada's tariffs by initiating anti-dumping investigations and imposing tariffs on Canadian canola, canola oil, seafood, and pork, increasing pressure on the Canadian agricultural sector [2] - There is growing pessimism regarding Canada's economic outlook, with over half of Canadians believing the economy will weaken in the next six months, largely due to the ongoing trade conflicts [4]