交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2640，基差-118，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.51万吨，上周0.46万吨，周环比增加228%，去年同期3.6万吨，同比减 少58.06%。偏多 4.盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and soybean meal markets are facing a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors such as bio - diesel policies and production levels. It is expected to be volatile, with potential upside in the fourth quarter but limited by various negative factors [2][9]. - The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. - The cotton market has limited upside potential due to potential issuance of import quotas and general downstream consumption [15]. - The egg market lacks a clear trend in the short - term, and for post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. - The pig market has high - valued futures but faces risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: Wednesday night, US soybean and soybean meal futures declined. The good North American weather restricts the upside, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by low valuation, high short - term supply, active downstream pick - up, and cost support for 9 - 1 month soybean purchases [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the soybean meal market having both bullish and bearish factors, it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows different trends in different periods in June, and production increased in July. As of July 15, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month. The domestic palm oil market was volatile on Wednesday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major fats and oils decreased slightly [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. There is a potential for price increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng sugar closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year in 2025 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng cotton closed at 14180 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The national new cotton yield per mu in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.5% [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price mainly increased. The main production area's average price rose to 3.31 yuan/jin. The egg market trading was stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term egg market lacks a clear trend and is mainly guided by the spot price. For post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined. The production side's sales were active, but the consumption side was weak, and the pig price is expected to continue to be weak [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures market is highly valued, but there are risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi were unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, and on July 22, 2025, it was 16.26, a decrease of 0.61% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, and on July 22, 2025, it was 68.26, an increase of 0.25% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 6050.0, a decrease of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 5920.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 21, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 22, 2025, it was 3280, a decrease of 0.26% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 15500.0, an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 49.0, a decrease of 9.26% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 219.0, a decrease of 1.79% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 170.0, an increase of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 40.0, a decrease of 11.11% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 235.0, a decrease of 2.08% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 195.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 267.0, an increase of 6.80% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 316.0, an increase of 3.95% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 97.0, an increase of 19.75% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1519.0, a decrease of 5.00% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1559.0, a decrease of 5.17% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1324.0, a decrease of 5.70% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 21, 2025, it was 79.45, and on July 22, 2025, it was 78.65, a decrease of 1.01% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 21, 2025, it was 1613.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1630.0, an increase of 1.05% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0871, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 7.03 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0845 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.59 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 21359.0, a decrease of 0.36% [3]. - Cotton: On July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 9436.0, a decrease of 0.68% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts remains tight, but downstream demand is still weak, so short - term peanut prices are relatively weak. Peanut oil spot prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected that the planting area will increase and the planting cost will decrease, so Peanut 10 will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [5][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 8026, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 29 (up 7.41%) and an open interest of 195 (up 4.28%); PK510 closed at 8142, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 39,891 (down 42.72%) and an open interest of 95,829 (up 1.04%); PK601 closed at 7990, down 6 (- 0.08%), with a trading volume of 1,820 (down 48.00%) and an open interest of 9,762 (up 5.74%) [3] - **Spot and Basis**: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan Nanyang was 9000, down 200; in Shandong Jining and Linyi, it was 8600, unchanged. The price of peanut meal in Rizhao was 3300, unchanged, and the price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2920, up 20. The price of peanut oil was 15000, unchanged, and the price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8200, down 20. The basis for Henan Nanyang was 858, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 458. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was 1, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6800. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8300, unchanged [3] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between PK01 - PK04 was - 36, down 14; between PK04 - PK10 was - 116, up 6; between PK10 - PK01 was 152, up 8 [3] 2. Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. In Northeast China, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.4 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.5 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous day. In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 4.4 - 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged. The price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, unchanged. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - recovery price of oil mills at 8110 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] - In the by - product market, the spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was strong, at 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [8] 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Peanut 10 futures are in a high - level shock, and short - term investors are advised to wait and see [10] - **Monthly Spread**: For the spread between Peanut 10 and 1, investors should mainly conduct reverse arbitrage at low levels [11] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of peanuts in Shandong, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [15][20][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures market continues to oscillate with limited changes, while the domestic soybean meal futures show a strong upward trend, reflecting concerns about future supply uncertainties. The upward momentum of rapeseed meal has slowed, and there are still many uncertainties in the future [4]. - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish, with limited upside potential after the recent rebound. The overall supply of the new soybean market is loose, and the support is limited. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different trends, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal have declined [4][5]. - The domestic soybean meal market lacks substantial positive factors, and the international market also lacks substantial positives. The upward space for soybean meal is limited, and there may be a short - term correction pressure. Rapeseed meal also faces pressure, and it is difficult to continue to strengthen [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The US soybean futures oscillated, the domestic soybean meal futures rose rapidly, and the upward trend of rapeseed meal slowed. The monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal futures oscillated slightly, and the decline of rapeseed meal monthly spreads slowed [4]. - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed little, and the spreads between different varieties and months also showed different trends. For example, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal remained unchanged, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 16 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 70% the previous week. The export inspection volume of old US soybeans in the week ending July 17 was 365,000 tons. The soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76% [5]. - **South American Soybeans**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated but is still slow. Brazilian soybean crushing has improved, but it has limited impact on alleviating supply pressure. The subsequent domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but the improvement space is limited [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulated inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have ended, but there is no clear information. The market is still worried about future supply uncertainties. Although the macro - level disturbances are decreasing, the short - term decline of China's long - term soybean demand for the US market is unlikely [7]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures are strong, but the upward driving force is general, and the continuous upward space is limited. The international market also lacks substantial positives, and there may be a decline pressure [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of rapeseed meal have changed little. The uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports makes it difficult to find a clear trading logic. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, and it is difficult for rapeseed meal to continue to strengthen [8]. - **Spreads**: The upward space for soybean meal spreads is limited, and there may be a decline pressure. Rapeseed meal spreads also face pressure, and the decline may continue. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Arbitrage**: Reduce and exit the RM91 reverse arbitrage position. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices dropped slightly, while the implied volatility of corn options rebounded significantly. The futures main contract C2509 closed at 2321 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 156,367 lots, an open interest of 440,600 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.832, and the option weighted implied volatility at 11.43% [1][2]. - Soybean meal futures prices continued to rise, and the implied volatility of soybean meal options increased substantially. The futures main contract M2509 closed at 3095 yuan/ton, with an option trading volume of 384,182 lots, an open interest of 898,113 lots, a trading volume PCR of 0.479, and the option weighted implied volatility at 18.30% [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data Statistics | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | C2509 | 2321 | -1 | -0.04 | 696,340 | 192,243 | 923,031 | -52,830 | | M2509 | 3095 | 9 | 0.29 | 1,166,151 | -14,759 | 1,838,499 | -12,733 | [3] 3.2 Option Market Data Statistics | Option Underlying | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Trading Volume PCR | PCR Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Open Interest PCR | PCR Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 156,367 | 45,418 | 0.832 | 0.185 | 440,600 | 2,866 | 0.531 | -0.011 | | Soybean Meal | 384,182 | 52,110 | 0.479 | -0.106 | 898,113 | 22,626 | 0.615 | 0.011 | [8] 3.3 Option Volatility Situation | Variety | Option Weighted Implied Volatility (%) | Volatility Change (%) | Change Rate | 30 - Day Historical Volatility (%) | 30 - Day Volatility Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 11.43 | 0.97 | 9.26% | 8.47 | 0.12 | | Soybean Meal | 18.30 | 2.02 | 12.38% | 11.46 | 0.03 | [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Corn - The excellent rate of US corn crops remains stable, in line with market expectations, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2016. The initial growth excellent rate is good, with high output prospects, and international corn prices continue to face pressure [2]. - In the domestic market, the frequency and time of weekly auctions of imported corn are relatively fixed, but the auction transaction volume remains low, and the transaction premium is gradually decreasing. Due to the previous weak outlook of traders and panic selling, the supply of grain sources has increased temporarily. However, the deep - processing efficiency is poor, and some enterprises have suspended or limited production, leading to relatively limited procurement demand and a continuous decline in prices. Recently, as traders' selling speed is fast, the inventory of commercial grain has decreased significantly, and the sentiment of grain - holding entities to hold back sales has increased, resulting in a decreasing trend of grain supply. Some processing enterprises have rigid procurement needs, and the purchase price has strengthened slightly recently. The corn futures have maintained a low - level shock recently after the previous decline, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Corn Starch - Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure has significantly weakened. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. As of July 23, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 131100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.60%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.40%. The starch futures have rebounded recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 74 yuan/ton; futures open interest (active contract) is 923031 lots [2]. - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 62 yuan/ton; futures open interest (active contract) is 207954 lots, down 16277 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 20212 lots, up 1928 lots; for corn starch, it is - 19454 lots, up 885 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 175450 lots, down 207 lots; for corn starch, they are 11334 lots, down 800 lots [2]. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 354 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 417.5 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel; total open interest is 1470395 contracts, down 28569 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 12305 contracts, down 129457 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2409.02 yuan/ton, down 0.88 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1993.7 yuan/ton, down 0.43 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the main corn contract is 88.02 yuan/ton, up 0.12 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 179 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream - The predicted planting area of corn in the US is 16 million hectares; the predicted output is 401.85 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares; the predicted output is 131 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; the predicted output is 53 million tons [2]. - The predicted planting area of corn in China is 44.3 million hectares; the predicted output is 295 million tons [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. Industry - The corn inventory in southern ports is 838000 tons, down 48000 tons; in northern ports, it is 3.17 million tons, down 360000 tons [2]. - The deep - processing corn inventory is 4.27 million tons, down 166000 tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 131100 tons, down 3500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 160000 tons, down 30000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98100 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 31.34 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption is 1100500 tons, down 57300 tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 38.34%, down 4.62 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 45.46%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 151 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei, it is - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.68%, down 0.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 8.72%, down 1.65 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.72%, down 1.65 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's crop progress weekly report shows that the excellent rate of US corn crops remains stable, in line with market expectations, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2016. As of July 13, the silking rate of US corn was 34%, up from 18% last week, lower than 39% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 33%. The dough stage ratio was 7%, up from 3% last week, the same as 7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].

Core Insights - Indonesia's exports surged by 50% in May, leading to a reduction in palm oil inventory to 2.9 million tons [1] - Institutions anticipate that India's replenishment demand will continue into the third quarter [1] - The question remains whether the favorable conditions for palm oil will be sufficient to help prices break through upper resistance levels [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to production growth and export decline, with potential support at 4100 ringgit and 8800 yuan domestically [1]. - Soybean oil may experience narrow - range oscillations in the short - term, and the basis may be under short - term pressure but supported in the long - term [1]. Sugar - The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but overall, a bearish view is maintained considering the production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally more balanced in supply and demand, and a bearish view is held after a potential rebound [3][4]. Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may remain high in a narrow range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, as demand is increasing but supply is sufficient and high - temperature weather may limit price increases [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybeans' spot price increased slightly, futures price decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. Palm oil's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis increased significantly. Rapeseed oil's spot and futures prices decreased [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil is affected by fundamental factors, and domestic port inventories are increasing. For soybean oil, weather impacts are rising as August approaches, and domestic basis differences vary between July and August [1]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On July 22, domestic sugar futures prices decreased slightly, ICE raw sugar decreased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Imported sugar prices decreased, and the difference between imported and domestic sugar prices decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and Guangxi's sugar production, sales, and sales rates increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall. The domestic market is expected to be more balanced in supply and demand [3][4]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, cotton futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory, industrial inventory, and imports decreased, while cotton outbound shipments increased. Some downstream indicators such as yarn and fabric inventory days increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, but the cotton price increase has driven up yarn prices. The supply side has some pressure from the sale of old cotton, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, egg futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis increased significantly [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg - laying chick prices decreased slightly, culled chicken prices increased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has affected production. Demand has increased, and prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [9]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, corn futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. Corn starch futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The auction on July 22 had a 27% success rate. The supply is tightening due to reduced sales and weather impacts, and demand is supported by the breeding industry [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal decreased while that of rapeseed meal increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: US soybeans are at the bottom, and Brazilian prices are high. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, pig futures prices increased slightly, and the 9 - 11 spread decreased. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Breeding profits are low, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans (domestic), the auction of domestic soybeans was concluded at a premium, supporting the strengthening of the soybean No.1 price. With the new soybeans gradually entering the market, the supply is increasing. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of soybean No.1, focusing on the key pressure level of the 09 contract in the range of 4,250 - 4,300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4,000 - 4,030 yuan/ton [3]. - Regarding peanuts, the expected low carry - over inventory of the old season, along with the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delayed opening of the Port of Port Sudan, has led to a shortage of imported peanuts. The price of peanuts has rebounded from the low - level shock. However, with the alleviation of high - temperature conditions in Henan, the upward momentum of the futures price has weakened. The expected high yield and lower planting costs put pressure on the far - month contracts. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 10 - contract at high levels and try short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [3]. - In the case of soybean oil, the price decline is mainly due to the drop in crude oil and international oil prices. With sufficient supply and weak demand, it is recommended to consider closing long positions and observing for now [4]. - For rapeseed oil, although the inventory has declined from the peak but remains high. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction. It is advisable to reduce long positions and pay attention to Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations and the actual implementation of the US biodiesel policy [4]. - Concerning palm oil, there are positive factors in both supply and demand in Indonesia. However, due to the seasonal production increase and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - term, it is recommended to partially close long positions [5]. - Regarding soybean meal, the price increase is due to concerns about the far - month supply. The market shows a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation". It is recommended to hold long positions in the M2511 contract [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the prices are in a range - bound state. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7]. - In the case of live pigs, the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 09 contract and buy the 2511 contract at low levels [8]. - Regarding eggs, the price has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly, pay attention to the positive spread between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract at low levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - The market logic of soybeans (domestic) includes premium - priced auctions and the gradual increase in supply. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [3][12]. - For peanuts, the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and try short positions in the far - month contracts [3][12]. - Soybean oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to close long positions [4][12]. - Rapeseed oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [4][12]. - Palm oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to partially close long positions [5][12]. - Soybean meal's 11 - contract is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions [5][12]. - Rapeseed meal's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [6][12]. - Corn's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Corn starch's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Live pigs' 09 contract is expected to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions [8][12]. - Eggs' 09 contract is expected to find the bottom through fluctuations. It is recommended to buy at low levels [8][9][12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For cross - period arbitrage, it is recommended to observe for most varieties such as soybeans, peanuts, and oils. However, a positive spread strategy is recommended for the 11 - 1 contract of soybean meal, and a positive spread strategy at low levels is recommended for live pigs and eggs [13][14]. - For cross - variety arbitrage, a bearish operation is recommended for the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bullish operation for the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and it is recommended to observe for other spreads [14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [19][20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [20]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [20]. 3. Livestock - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data, are provided [21][23][24]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of live pigs and eggs are presented [26][27][28] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Charts related to the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts are provided [35][36][38] - **Feed**: Charts of the inventory, consumption, and processing profits of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal are presented [53][54][56] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the trading volume, open interest, and volatility of corn options, as well as historical and implied volatility, are provided [74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]