Group 1 - The stock price of Tianbang Food reached 2.99 yuan as of August 15, 2025, with a 1.01% increase from the previous trading day and a trading volume of 0.76 billion yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.30% [1] - Tianbang Food's main business includes pig farming, feed processing, and food processing, primarily located in economically developed regions such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Bohai Rim [1] - The company employs a "two-point" production model, focusing on providing safe and healthy animal-sourced food [1] Group 2 - As of August 15, the net inflow of main funds was 5.51 million yuan, but over the past five days, there was an overall net outflow of 43.35 million yuan [1] - The company has stated that it has not yet entered the Vietnamese market, with its business focus remaining on domestic advantageous regions, including Anhui, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Zhejiang [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.695 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.33% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was RMB 1.292 billion, a decrease of 26.83% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of RMB 3.32 [1] - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by the pig farming segment, which generated RMB 9.879 billion, a year-on-year growth of 32.6%, with sales volume reaching 5.1174 million pigs, up 27.1% [1] Group 2 - The auxiliary products segment reported revenue of RMB 481 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with a slaughter volume of 249,000 pigs, up 18.5% [2] - The company has two subsidiaries focused on slaughtering operations, which recently received certification for quality management in pig slaughtering [2] - The overall gross margin improved from 12.4% in the first half of 2024 to 17.4% in the first half of 2025, attributed to the expansion of new-style family farms and reduced production costs due to lower feed prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pig prices declined, with the main contract 2511 dropping 1.66% weekly. The supply side saw an accelerated pace of weight - reducing sales in the first half of the month, increasing market supply. However, after price drops, farmers showed signs of resistance, and the sales pace might slow down. The demand side had sufficient pig supply, with improved demand in some areas and a mild increase in slaughterhouse operating rates. With the upcoming school openings and double - festival stocking, demand is expected to improve significantly. Overall, the previous increase in farmers' sales pressured spot prices, but the resistance sentiment may change the short - term sales pace, leading to stable price adjustments. Technically, the 2511 contract corrected, but the current weight - reducing sales will ease future supply pressure, and with expected demand improvement, the decline of futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for corrections and try long positions with light positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices dropped, and the main contract 2511 fell 1.66% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the early weight - reducing sales increased supply, but price drops may slow down the sales pace. On the demand side, with sufficient supply and improving demand, the operating rate of slaughterhouses rose. Future demand is expected to improve due to school openings and double - festival stocking. Spot prices may adjust stably, and futures price decline is limited. It is advisable to wait for corrections and try long positions with light positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined, and the main contract 2511 dropped 1.66% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1311 lots, and there were 430 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 50 from last week [16]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 14.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 3.14% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.65 yuan from last week and 8.24% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: On August 7, the national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of August 6, the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the inventory increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, an increase of 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the inventory increased 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - **Pig Sales Volume and Average Weight**: In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the sales volume decreased 3.08% month - on - month but increased 18.60% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased 1.46% month - on - month but increased 57.67% year - on - year. The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 123.23 kg, a decrease of 0.09 kg from last week [48]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 157.05 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 22.91 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 28.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 16.28 yuan/head from the previous period [53]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, the profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.26 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 0.05 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.86 yuan/head [53]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Substitute Markets - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported 540000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 15, the price of white - striped chickens was 1.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 14, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from last week [61]. 3.3.4 Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3118.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 102.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2394.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of August 15, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 924.07, a decrease of 0.85% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [71]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2937700 tons, an increase of 175.6 tons from the previous month [76]. 3.3.5 CPI - As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [80]. 3.3.6 Downstream Market - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 33rd week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 27.79%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points from last week and 4.08 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.02%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.52%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from last week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30060000 heads, a decrease of 6.53% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [88]. 3.4 Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [89].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [46][47]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.32% from August 1 to August 14, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.08 percentage points [10][11]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only the fishery sector showing a negative return of -0.64%. The agricultural product processing, feed, planting, animal health, and breeding sectors saw increases of 6.53%, 1.88%, 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.38%, respectively [11][12]. - Approximately 57% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [12]. Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fell from 14.21 CNY/kg to 13.82 CNY/kg between August 1 and August 14, 2025. - The cost of corn was 2394.12 CNY/ton, showing a recent decline, while soybean meal was priced at 3126 CNY/ton, which increased recently [21][23]. - Profit for self-bred pigs was 28.85 CNY/head, while the profit for purchased piglets was -157.05 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.58 CNY/chick, which continued to rise, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.6 CNY/chick, showing a slight decline [28]. - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.2 CNY/kg, which increased, and the profit for white feather broiler farming was 1.03 CNY/chick, also showing an upward trend [32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp was 22.38 CNY/kg, showing a slight decline, while the average price for carp was 15.69 CNY/kg, which increased [34]. Company Insights - The report highlights several companies to watch, including: - Muyuan Foods (002714), noted for its cost, scale, and integration advantages in pig farming [48]. - Haida Group (002311), recognized as a leading feed company with expected market share growth [48]. - Shennong Development (002299), a leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in breeding and food business expansion [48]. - Reap Bio (300119), a leader in the animal health industry with a growing product matrix for pet health [48]. - Zhongchong Co. (002891), a top player in the pet food sector with strong domestic growth and recovering export business [48].

2025年6月，全国仔猪（普通）集贸市场价格当期值为36.32元/公斤，比2025年5月下降1.19元/公斤，环 比下滑3.2%，降幅减少1.4个百分点，同比下滑10.6%，降幅减少11.1个百分点。 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国生猪养殖行业市场调查研究及投资策略研究报告》 ...

数据来源：国家统计局 2025年6月，全国活猪（中等）集贸市场价格当期值为15.29元/公斤，比2025年5月下降0.26元/公斤，环 比下滑1.7%，增幅增加0.6个百分点，同比下滑14.6%，降幅减少10.5个百分点。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国生猪养殖行业市场调查研究及投资策略研究报告》 ...

Real Estate - Developers are facing significant inventory pressure, with unsold housing area expected to rise from 670 million square meters in 2023 to 750 million square meters by the end of 2024, and further to 798 million square meters by February 2025 [2] - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale is also increasing, with a projected 2.7 million listings across 100 cities by April 2025, marking an 18.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Developers are employing strategies of "visible stability and hidden price drops," with some properties listed at 85,000 yuan per square meter but selling for under 70,000 yuan after discounts [2] - Homeowners are also adjusting prices, with some in Hangzhou reducing their asking prices by 300,000 yuan over four months [2] - For first-time buyers, this period presents a "window of opportunity" as down payments and monthly payments are lower than rental costs, but caution is advised in cities with high inventory and population outflow [2] Automotive - The luxury car market has experienced a significant shift, with traditional brands like BMW, Audi, and Mercedes-Benz drastically reducing prices due to severe overcapacity, with industry utilization rates potentially dropping below 60% [5] - Promotions and discounts are rampant, with prices for models like BMW starting at 150,000 yuan and Audi at 160,000 yuan [5] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "residual value traps" and to prefer new electric vehicles over older gasoline models [5] Home Appliances - The home appliance market has seen a price drop since the second half of 2024, with reductions ranging from 300 to 500 yuan for common products like TVs and refrigerators [7] - The average price of a 75-inch 4K TV has fallen below 4,000 yuan, a 42% decrease compared to three years ago, while energy-efficient air conditioners are now available for under 2,000 yuan [7] - The price reductions are attributed to rapid technological advancements and high inventory levels, creating a favorable buying opportunity for consumers [7] Pork Industry - The pork market is experiencing a price decline, with average prices dropping to 14 yuan per kilogram in many regions, and some areas seeing prices fall to 10 yuan [9] - Despite the lower prices, industry insiders warn of potential losses, with predictions of a 300 yuan loss per pig sold, leading to possible bankruptcies if conditions do not improve [11] - The government is implementing measures to control production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs being sold [11] General Market Trends - A broader trend of price reductions is observed across various sectors, including luxury goods, fruits, and coffee, indicating a potential economic slowdown [13] - Consumers are encouraged to be mindful of spending and to focus on self-improvement as a long-term investment strategy [16]

Group 1 - DMC prices have decreased this week, while most lithium raw materials and cobalt product prices have increased [1] - The photovoltaic price index remained stable compared to last week, with polysilicon, components, battery cells, and silicon wafer price indices unchanged [1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of solar power generation capacity in China from January to June has narrowed [1] Group 2 - The rolling year-on-year growth rate of automobile production and sales has expanded in July [1] - The rolling four-week average year-on-year growth rate of cargo throughput and container throughput at Chinese ports has increased [1] - The CCFI has declined, while CCBFI, BDI, and BDTI have risen [1] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" competition and industry self-discipline production restrictions have led to price increases in various sectors, including coking coal, battery cells, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and glass [1] - Steel and some chemical product prices have rebounded due to improved profitability and cost support [1] - The overall expectation of industry clearing has driven the rebound in prices of black and non-ferrous commodities, which is a key factor in stopping the decline of PPI [1] Group 4 - The semiconductor sector has seen an increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index [2] - DDR5 DRAM memory prices and NAND index have risen week-on-week, while DRAM index has also increased [2] - The revenue performance of electronic manufacturers in Taiwan has shown divergence in July [2] Group 5 - The average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased over the past ten days, while rebar prices have increased [3] - The price of coal has risen, with Qinhuangdao mixed coal prices increasing, while the price of Shanxi coking coal has decreased [3] - The national cement price index has declined [3] Group 6 - The net absorption in the money market has been observed [3] - The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have increased [3] - The transaction area of commercial housing has decreased, along with the listing volume and price index of second-hand houses [3] Group 7 - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China has decreased, along with the futures price of natural gas in the UK [3] - The average daily power generation of key power plants in China has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate over the past 12 weeks [3]

近年来，中国在生猪养殖、猪瘟防控方面采取了多样化的措施。国家生猪产业技术体系产业经济岗位科 学家王祖力14日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，中国在国家层面对非洲猪瘟的防控采取了分区防控 政策，管控生猪跨区域调运，以降低区域传播风险，并对生猪运输车辆提出了严格的洗消要求。企业也 研发出了物理隔离、空气过滤、精准剔除、定点"拔牙"等一系列防控技术，在很大程度上减少了疫病的 发生风险。同时国家给予一定的财政补贴支持小散养殖场户升级改造，加强其疫病防控能力。此外，为 恢复生猪产能，中国还出台了一系列扶持政策，同时制定了生猪产能调控实施方案并不断完善，引导行 业健康稳定发展。 报道提到，过去数月的疫情复燃主要集中于散户养殖场，散户因成本效益考虑及缺乏政府资金技术扶 持，非洲猪瘟商用疫苗接种率偏低。针对持续暴发的非洲猪瘟疫情，越南农业与环境部表示已出台政策 防止国内猪肉价格突发性上涨。越南今年前7个月肉类乳品进口额近26亿美元， 同比激增23%，其中肉 类及屠宰副产品进口额超10亿美元。 在此背景下，越南积极探索养殖与猪瘟防治的新办法。越南通讯社日前报道称，越南农业与环境部副部 长冯德进已签署第119号呈文，向政府总理提 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the impact of production capacity regulation policies on the market dynamics and pricing trends of live pigs [1][3][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends and Influencing Factors** - Pig prices have dropped below 14 yuan, primarily due to the realization of production capacity in Q1 and Q2, with an increase in the number of fattening pigs as a result of accelerated weight reduction and shortened age [2][5]. - The market is expected to see a slight decline in prices in August and September, followed by a potential increase driven by seasonal consumption [2]. 2. **Production Capacity Regulation** - National capacity regulation has significantly impacted the swine industry, especially for large farming companies, effectively controlling the average slaughter weight [3][16]. - Without such regulations, prices could fall due to high slaughter weights and low prices, leading to reduced profitability for farmers [17]. 3. **Weight Reduction Strategies** - Major farming groups, such as Muyuan, have successfully reduced average slaughter weights to around 121 kg, with a target of below 120 kg by the end of August [4]. - The overall weight reduction target completion is approximately 80%, indicating a concerted effort to manage supply levels [4]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Supply Issues** - The supply of fattening pigs has shifted from self-breeding to piglet fattening and secondary fattening, leading to a supply gap due to high costs and losses incurred by farmers [6][11]. - The price difference between standard and fattened pigs is higher than in previous years, attributed to a decrease in self-breeding farmers and insufficient continuous supply of fattened pigs [6]. 5. **Regional Disease Outbreaks** - The southern regions of China are experiencing multiple waves of disease outbreaks, affecting swine populations and contributing to market instability [7]. 6. **Government Policies and Market Confidence** - Recent government policies have positively influenced market confidence, prompting farmers to maintain higher utilization rates of their facilities and prepare for future demand [11]. - Local governments have implemented measures to support production cuts, such as stricter regulations on pig movements and inspections [12][14]. 7. **Future Price Outlook** - The price of live pigs is expected to stabilize and potentially rise in 2026, contingent on the continuation of production capacity reductions [15]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a peak or near-peak price level similar to early July, with a price range between 13 yuan as the upper limit and 13 yuan as the lower limit [6]. Additional Important Insights - There is a notable trend of small and medium-sized farms attempting to expand production despite regulations, often through the rotation of breeding stock to enhance efficiency [12]. - The effectiveness of regulatory measures varies, with larger companies showing better compliance compared to smaller farms that may evade restrictions [16]. - The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory influences, necessitating close monitoring of industry trends and government actions [11][17].