证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 07 月 09 日 通信 算力催生数据中心向智算发展，推动 PCB 向高阶升级迭代，看好相 关产业链投资机会 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 002881.SZ | 美格智能 | 买入 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 61.56 | 48.85 | | 301285.SZ | 鸿日达 | 买入 | 0.21 | 0.7 | 161.9 | 48.57 | | 600941.SH | 中国移动 | 买入 | 6.77 | 7.17 | 16.54 | 15.61 | | 601728.SH | 中国电信 | 买入 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 20.08 | 19.08 | 资料来源：长城证券产业金融研究院 本周策略观点： OpenA I向甲骨文租赁数据中心算力，看好未来 AIDC 产业链投资机会。据 据《金融时报》和彭博社援引知情人士报道，O ...

Core Insights - The city sub-center is experiencing significant economic development with 400 new key projects under discussion in the first half of the year, leading the city in foreign investment projects [1][2] - The establishment of a project database for key enterprises and the launch of international investment liaison agencies are set to enhance investment attraction efforts in the second half of the year [1][7] Group 1: Project Development - A total of 400 new key projects are currently under discussion, with 230 registered key enterprises and 47 foreign investment projects successfully landed [2] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have contributed significantly, with 176 SOEs established, including 107 central SOEs and 69 municipal SOEs [2] - The successful landing of projects from private enterprises such as Huqing Yuantai New Energy Technology and Kangwei Shitong Technology highlights the diverse investment landscape [2] Group 2: Investment Attraction Strategies - The district is implementing a market-oriented, professional, and systematic reform in investment attraction, establishing a comprehensive investment system [3] - The creation of the Beijing Tongzhou Industrial Investment Development Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in building a market-oriented investment framework [3] - A "service commissioner" mechanism has been established to connect resources and optimize the business environment across 22 towns and streets [3] Group 3: Innovation and Technology Focus - The "All-Region Scene Innovation City" initiative aims to strengthen scene-based investment, linking services to enterprises and enhancing their core competitiveness [4] - The "Science and Technology Resource Doubling Project" is designed to attract regional headquarters and R&D centers, boosting local innovation capabilities [4] Group 4: International Collaboration and Events - The district is actively engaging in international investment through the establishment of liaison agencies and participation in high-profile events like the G20 Youth Entrepreneurs Alliance [5][6] - The district has signed five major projects during the 2025 Zhongguancun Forum, with an expected total investment of over 4 billion yuan in sectors such as healthcare and green energy [6] Group 5: Future Plans and Goals - In the second half of the year, the district plans to focus on three major engineering projects to drive high-quality industrial development [7] - The establishment of an international investment liaison agency aims to enhance the internationalization of investment efforts and create a new market-oriented investment mechanism [7] - The district will leverage high-end exhibitions and establish a white-list system for enterprises to facilitate deeper government-business cooperation [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has significantly raised Oracle's target price from $220 to $270, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to accelerating performance growth driven by large cloud computing deals [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Oracle's stock price rose nearly 1% to $234.50, reaching an intraday high of $241.439, with over 40% increase since June's strong earnings outlook [1] - Jefferies analysts project Oracle's cloud infrastructure as a service (IaaS) revenue to reach $46 billion and total revenue to hit $93 billion for fiscal year 2028, indicating significant upside potential [3][4] - The company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $138 billion, up from $130 billion in the previous quarter, reflecting strong long-term customer commitments [6] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Oracle announced a landmark cloud computing service agreement expected to generate over $30 billion in annual sales starting from fiscal year 2028, linked to collaborations with OpenAI, SoftBank, and ARM [3] - The company is leasing up to 4.5 gigawatts of super data center capacity to OpenAI, highlighting its critical role in expanding AI infrastructure [3] - Analysts believe these large cloud deals signify a major turning point in Oracle's cloud strategy, enhancing confidence in achieving over 100% RPO growth by fiscal year 2026 [3][4] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Oracle stands out among cloud computing leaders, achieving over 100% RPO growth while accelerating sales, unlike other major software companies [2] - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the AI infrastructure market, competing directly with AWS and Microsoft Azure [7] - The "Stargate" project aims to build large-scale data centers to meet massive AI computing demands, showcasing Oracle's capabilities in providing essential cloud services [8]

阿里巴巴 20250708 摘要 阿里巴巴宣布投入 500 亿人民币补贴即时零售，旨在提升订单密度和用 户成交频次，尤其通过高频餐饮外卖带动低频即时零售，并激活淘宝 APP 用户，尽管短期内可能影响利润，但长期有望推动增长。 阿里云面临供给端压力和业绩波动，但 AI 需求和交叉销售 AI 代理将成 为核心驱动力。国内多模态模型算力调用已上升，长期来看，AI 产业初 期投入大于短期收入，但未来增长潜力巨大。 淘天集团在即时零售领域转被动为主动，通过闪购场景激活新用户或召 回老客户，提高淘宝 APP 日活跃用户数，此举表明淘系重视即时零售业 务，并将其作为电商主站流量增长的驱动力。 即时零售大战中，美团在订单量和市场份额方面领先，阿里通过外卖业 务保持密度经济，高频餐饮外卖提升低频即时零售用户成交频次，推动 主站电商 GMV 增长，长期战略调整有望带来更高增长。 下半年，AI 相关催化剂（云计算增量）和传统电商业务稳定是业绩增长 点。尽管暑期补贴战可能带来压力，但即时零售投入有望增加淘宝 APP 交易额和活跃用户数，长期来看，对阿里巴巴定位为超级电商 APP 有利。 淘天集团在即时零售领域从被动转为主动。7 月 ...

Group 1 - The supply-demand pattern in the light curing agent industry is improving, leading to potential profitability recovery [3][4][8] - The demand side shows a rebound in traditional sectors and new opportunities in emerging applications such as UV coatings, inks, and adhesives [4][5] - The light curing agent market in China is projected to grow, with a demand increase of 9% in 2023, reaching 35,000 tons [5][6] Group 2 - The production capacity of leading light curing agent companies in China is concentrated, with major players like Jiu Ri New Materials and Qiangli New Materials holding significant market shares [7][8] - The industry is expected to see a further increase in concentration as weaker players exit the market, enhancing competitive dynamics [6][8] - The light curing agent industry is rated as "recommended" due to the anticipated recovery in profitability and demand [8] Group 3 - The refrigerant market is experiencing a price increase due to quota restrictions, with R32 and R134a showing significant price rises [11][12] - The demand for refrigerants is driven by the growth in household and automotive air conditioning markets, with production expected to rise [15][16] - The refrigerant industry is rated as "recommended" based on tightening supply-demand relationships and continuous demand growth [16][17] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment in China is showing resilience, with a stable growth outlook supported by strong consumer demand and manufacturing investment [19][20] - The government is implementing proactive fiscal policies, including increased budget deficits and special bond issuances to stimulate economic growth [27][28] - The export sector is expected to maintain resilience, supported by diversified trade partners and optimized product structures [45][46]

Group 1: Financial Market Developments - The People's Bank of China is actively researching measures to promote the RMB bond market as a global high-quality liquid asset [1] - The central bank aims to enhance cross-border investment and financing convenience, including establishing a one-stop account opening platform for foreign investors [1] - As of May, 835 foreign institutional investors have entered the interbank bond market through the Bond Connect, with a total of 1,169 foreign investors from nearly 80 countries and regions [5] Group 2: Offshore Repo Market Expansion - The PBOC plans to optimize the offshore repo business mechanism under the Bond Connect to facilitate liquidity management for foreign investors [2] - The scope of tradable currencies for offshore repos will expand from RMB to include USD, EUR, HKD, and other currencies [2] - The Hong Kong Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) will adopt international practices by removing the freeze on pledged securities to enhance liquidity [2] Group 3: Early Childhood Education Initiatives - Seven departments in China have jointly issued opinions to accelerate the construction of a universal childcare service system, establishing a "1+N" model [3][4] - The "1" refers to a comprehensive childcare service center, while "N" includes various forms of childcare services to meet diverse community needs [3] - The initiative includes providing free or low-cost facilities for childcare services, utilizing existing community resources [4] Group 4: Zero-Carbon Park Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued a notice to support the construction of zero-carbon parks [8][9] - The initiative encourages local governments to provide financial support for zero-carbon projects through special bonds and long-term credit from policy banks [8] - The plan includes promoting renewable energy development and direct green electricity supply models in industrial parks [9] Group 5: AI Industry Support - Hangzhou is soliciting opinions on measures to support the industrialization of brain-like intelligence projects [10] - The city aims to strengthen the innovation chain around the brain-like intelligence industry and support companies in scaling up [10] - The initiative encourages the development of core technological capabilities with independent intellectual property rights [10] Group 6: Government Cloud Market Growth - The IDC report indicates that China's government cloud market is projected to reach 93.94 billion RMB in 2024, with an 18.4% year-on-year growth [11] - The dedicated government cloud market is expected to grow by 19.0%, reaching 66.33 billion RMB [11] - The public government cloud market is anticipated to grow by 12.2%, reaching 17.24 billion RMB [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing strong growth in AI server revenue, with a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and is continuously improving its market share [2][6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.96-12.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.84%-39.12% [5][10]. - The cloud computing business is seeing rapid growth, with overall segment revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for AI data center products [6][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of July 7, 2025, the company's stock price is 23.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 476.23 billion yuan [4]. - The company's performance over the past year shows an 18.1% increase over the last month and a 39.8% increase over the last three months [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 888.83 billion yuan in 2025, 1,203.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 1,582.51 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 30.24 billion yuan, 39.48 billion yuan, and 49.40 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 46% in 2025, 35% in 2026, and 31% in 2027 [9]. Business Segments Cloud Computing - The AI server segment is expected to account for over 50% of total server revenue, with significant growth in GPU module shipments [6][10]. - The company has seen a 1.5 times increase in revenue from cloud service provider servers compared to the same period last year [6]. Network Communications - The company’s 800G switch revenue in Q2 2025 reached three times that of the entire year of 2024, driven by increasing AI demand [7]. - The precision component business is also experiencing steady growth, supported by strong sales of high-end AI products [7].

作 者 | Cash Flow Venue 编译 | 华尔街大事件 亚马逊公司 （NASDAQ ： AMZN ）是分析师最看好的超大市值公司之一。尽管估值令人印象深 刻，但考虑到其长期潜力和一流的投资策略，分析师仍然认为它被低估了随着亚马逊越来越接近 打破年初创下的历史最高纪录，未来还会有更大的发展。一方面，亚马逊的核心业务——电商 ——的盈利能力不断提升；另一方面，AWS 的营收每个季度都保持着强劲增长。 亚马逊自己的数据已经很能说明问题，但背后还有更多故事。2014 年以来，AWS 的复合年增长 率高达 37% 左右。有人可能会说，这是因为起点低 —— 这话没错。那我们看短一点的周期， 2020 到 2024 年怎么样？AWS 的复合年增长率还是有 25% 左右，2025 年一季度销售额更是突 破 290 亿美元，继续保持增长。 虽然AWS是亚马逊盈利能力提升的驱动力，但必须指出的是，它的市场份额并未增长。惊讶吗？ 看看微软（ MSFT ）的Azure或谷歌云（ GOOG ）——它们都实现了强劲增长，尤其是Azure。 虽然亚马逊的AWS仍然是排名第一的云平台，但在与微软Azure的竞争中，它的市场份额却 ...

海能投顾与腾讯云达成合作 近日，上海海能证券投资顾问有限公司（简称海能投顾）宣布，已在腾讯云的大模型知识引擎基座平台 上接入DeepSeek模型，为AI智能质检、客服GPT助手、AI投顾协同等业务深度赋能，将为客户提供更 智能、更极致便捷的金融服务体验。海能投顾产品技术负责人表示，此次DeepSeek的落地，将会让海 能投顾通过技术驱动，提升服务效率，进而全面升级客户服务体验。 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7% to 3497 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.39% [1] - The total trading volume for the day reached 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 247.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 4300 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept stocks surged in the afternoon, with "Yizhongtian" leading the gains; Tianfu Communication rose over 12%, Zhongji Xuchuang rose over 7%, and Xinyi Sheng rose over 6.7% [2] - The photovoltaic glass sector saw a rise of 5.76%, while other related sectors such as photovoltaic inverters and circuit boards also experienced gains [2] AI ETF Performance - The ChiNext AI ETFs from Guotai, Huaxia, Huabao, and Nanfang all rose over 3%, with Guotai's ETF increasing by 3.78% [3][4] - The largest ChiNext AI ETF by size is Huabao's, with a latest scale of 1.545 billion yuan [5] Company Updates - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.727 billion to 6.927 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [5] - The company reported that its cloud computing business grew rapidly, with overall revenue in the segment increasing by over 50% year-on-year, and AI server revenue increasing by over 60% [5] Technology Developments - Citigroup noted that NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 chip has become a core power source for AI clusters, with deployment accelerating [6] - The upcoming CPO switches are expected to open three new incremental spaces, with significant value from high-density MPO connectors [6] Industry Trends - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the upcoming NVIDIA GB300 chip is expected to drive industry chain resonance, with revenue opportunities increasing by 50 times compared to previous generations [7] - Oracle's cloud service contracts are anticipated to catalyze demand for computing power, with expectations of over 30% year-on-year capital expenditure growth from major cloud providers [7] - The AI-driven evolution of data center architecture is expected to benefit optical modules and devices, with optimistic demand forecasts [8]