融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 策略定期报告 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力 ...

受寒潮影响，江西、福建等地出现雨雪和冰冻天气。国铁南昌局在南昌、九江、福州、厦门等车站增加 信息发布频次，增开退改签窗口，铺设防滑垫、设置提示牌，并安排专人加强引导和巡查，保障旅客进 出站安全。 寒潮期间，用煤需求显著增加。国铁南昌局为电煤运输开辟"绿色通道"，优化调车作业流程，加快车辆 周转。琵琶湖、画桥、贵溪等车站主动与电厂对接，动态掌握电煤库存和消耗情况，提前储备、紧急调 配电煤资源，增派调车人员，做到快装快发。 面对冰雪考验，长沙黄花国际机场持续加强天气监测，统筹调配资源，全力争取飞机除冰"少等待"、跑 道适航"不关闭"、航延服务"更温暖"。21日当天，长沙黄花国际机场保障进港航班250架次，出港航班 248架次。 据新华社北京1月22日电 今年首场大范围寒潮"南下"，继续影响南方多地。 交通运输部调度湖南、贵州、广西、安徽等地交通运输主管部门，要求加密公路巡查频次，紧盯夜间低 温时段，提前做好融冰防滑准备；加强铲冰除雪，严防降雪堆积，多渠道及时发布路况和预警信息，引 导公众合理安排出行。 ...

新华财经巴库1月22日电（记者刘书辰）阿塞拜疆国家海关委员会发布的初步数据显示，2025年阿对外 货物贸易总额为494.23亿美元。其中，货物出口额为250.43亿美元，货物进口额为243.8亿美元。 按货物贸易总额计算，2025年阿前三大贸易伙伴为意大利、土耳其、俄罗斯，货物贸易额分别为118.6 亿美元、57.21亿美元和49.2亿美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 出口结构方面，2025年阿油气领域出口额为214.15亿美元，占出口总额85.51%。 进口结构方面，2025年阿主要进口商品为机电产品、运输工具及其零件和食品，分别占进口总额的 15.18%、12.73%和10.63%。 ...

本报北京1月22日电(记者邱海峰)记者从国家发展改革委获悉，近日，2026年第一批936亿元超长期特别 国债支持设备更新资金已经下达，支持工业、能源电力、教育、医疗、住宅老旧电梯等领域约4500个项 目，带动总投资超过4600亿元；同时，采取直接向地方下达资金的方式，继续支持老旧营运货车报废更 新、新能源城市公交车更新、老旧农机报废更新。 据悉，今年以来，国家发展改革委会同各有关方面优化实施"两新"政策，在前期扎实开展设备更新项目 谋划储备的基础上，抓紧组织项目申报，严格做好审核把关，加快推动设备更新政策落地见效。 国家发展改革委表示，下一步，将会同各有关方面，持续做好统筹协调和跟踪调度，加强设备更新项目 和资金全链条管理，进一步发挥"两新"政策效能。 ...

AI基金泓德红利优选混合(LOF)A（501227）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润249.87万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0155元。报告期内，基金净值 增长率为3.66%，截至四季度末，基金规模为2.06亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至1月21日，单位净值为1.075元。基金经理是苏昌景和孙泽宇，目前共同管理3只基金。 截至12月31日，基金成立以来夏普比率为0.1791。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，展望2026年，在科技创新引领以及国家推动中长期资金入市的背景下，A股有望延续结构性较好的表现。市场风格从估值修复 转向盈利驱动，基本面重要性上升，高景气度与业绩改善行业将会有更好的表现，如科技成长、高端制造出海、上游有色金属、中游化工等。本基金将继续 坚持红利风格下的主动量化投资方法，勤勉尽责，力求实现基金资产的长期、稳定增值。 截至1月21日，泓德红利优选混合(LOF)A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为3.30%，位于同类可比基金507/621；近半年复权单位净值增长率为5.90%，位于同 类可比基金563/621。 截至2025年四季度末，基金规模为2.06亿元。 截至1月21日，基金成立 ...

截至2026年1月22日 13:33，中证全指自由现金流指数(932365)上涨0.78%，成分股白银有色上涨10.04%，中国动力上涨5.53%，九丰能源上涨5.18%，兔宝宝 上涨4.58%，中国海油上涨3.93%。自由现金流ETF基金(159233)上涨0.94%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报1.3元。 自由现金流ETF基金（159233）ETF跟踪中证自由现金流指数，相较于传统红利与宽基指数，该指数更聚焦顺周期行业，在主题赛道资金轮动的市场环境 下，可作为底仓配置的工具，助力投资者捕捉经济复苏背景下的结构性机会。 今日盘面上，截止上午收盘，指数涨幅超过1%。近期消息面亦对顺周期板块形成积极支撑： 1.电力设备及新能源板块：AI算力需求持续激增，带动电力需求全面扩容。 当前，AI模型复杂度的提升和应用场景拓展，对算力需求呈指数级增长。据研究机构TrendForce 最新报告显示，2026 年全球 AI 服务器出货量预计同比增长 28.3%，含通用服务器在内的整体服务器市场同比增长 12.8%，两大市场增速均显著快于 2025 年。算力基础设施的高速扩张直接推高数据中心供配电、液冷 散热设备需求，同时催生光伏、 ...

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 1.自2018年1月1日起，当年具备高新技术 企业或科技型中小企业资格（以下统称资格） 的企业，其具备资格年度之前5个年度发生的尚 未弥补完的亏损，准予结转以后年度弥补，最 长结转年限由5年延长至10年。 < 10 CE 集成电路生产企业 政策依据 > 高新技术企业资格 科技型中小企业资格 政策依据 > 《财政部 税务总局关于延长高新技术企业和科 技型中小企业亏损结转年限的通知》(财税 〔2018〕76号) 第一条 2.国家鼓励的线宽小于130纳米（含）的集 成电路生产企业，属于国家鼓励的集成电路生产 企业清单年度之前5个纳税年度发生的尚未弥补 完的亏损，准予向以后年度结转，总结转年限最 长不得超过10年。 线宽≤130nm 《财政部 税务总局 发展改革委 工业和信息化部 关于促进集成电路产业和软件产业高质量发展 企业所得税政策的公告》（财政部 税务总局 发 展改革委 工业和信息化部公告2020年第45号 ) 第二条 3.受疫情影响较大的困难行业企业2020年度 发生的亏损,最长结转年限由5年延长至8年。 受疫情影响较大的 困难行业企业 2020年度 发生的亏损 5年-8年 /! 困 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a temporary exemption from personal income tax on capital gains from the transfer of CDRs by individual investors for the years 2026 and 2027 [1][1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the first phase of 6G technology trials has resulted in over 300 key technology reserves, with the second phase of trials already initiated [1][1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is overseeing the rectification of the logistics industry to promote fair competition and protect the rights of truck drivers [1][1] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration reported that electricity demand reached a winter record high of 1.168 billion kilowatts from January 19 to 21, a 12.2% increase from last year's peak of 1.041 billion kilowatts [2][2] - The Guangdong provincial government introduced policies to encourage the development of artificial intelligence in transportation, including support for autonomous driving technology and regulatory platforms [2][2] - Moore Threads announced an expected net loss of 950 million to 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, a reduction in loss of approximately 5.58 billion to 6.68 billion yuan compared to the previous year, representing a narrowing of 34.5% to 41.3% [2][2] Group 3 - The Danish "Academic Pension Fund" plans to sell $100 million in U.S. government bonds due to concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation [6][6] - The Japan National Tourism Organization reported a significant decline of 45.3% in the number of visitors from mainland China in December, totaling 330,400 [6][6] - The International Energy Agency projected that global oil demand will grow by 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, an increase from the previously estimated 860,000 barrels per day [6][6] Group 4 - Companies such as Yalun Technology expect revenues of 1.45 billion to 1.52 billion yuan for 2025, while Daikin Heavy Industries anticipates a net profit increase of 121.58% to 153.23% year-on-year [8][8] - JinkoSolar expects a net loss of 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan for 2025, while other companies like Tianfu Communication and Hekang New Energy project significant profit increases [8][8]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report of Harbin City emphasizes the commitment to high-quality revitalization and development by 2025, focusing on industrial upgrades, improved public welfare, and enhanced urban vitality [7]. Group 1: Economic Development - The construction of "three bases, one barrier, and one highland" has made significant progress, with grain production reaching 25.775 billion jin, an increase of 753 million jin [9]. - The added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 19.6%, and the installed capacity of renewable energy reached 5.338 million kilowatts, accounting for 52.9% of the total installed capacity [9]. - Actual foreign investment grew by 18.1%, and total import and export volume increased by 4.1% [9]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - Major policies such as "two heavies" and "two new" have shown effectiveness, with 581 major construction projects and 56 equipment upgrade projects supported [9]. - Consumer incentives included 3.76 billion yuan in subsidies for replacing old consumer goods and 190 million yuan in consumer vouchers, stimulating consumption by 38.89 billion yuan [9]. - Industrial technology investment increased by 36.3%, and high-tech manufacturing investment grew by 10.8% [9]. Group 3: Tourism and Culture - Harbin successfully hosted events like the Harbin Summer Music Festival and the International Ice and Snow Festival, attracting 200 million tourists and generating a total tourism expenditure of 281.84 billion yuan, representing growth of 12.7% and 21.8% respectively [10]. - The city was awarded the title of "World Ice and Snow Tourism Excellence City" by the United Nations World Tourism Organization [10]. Group 4: Innovation and Industry Upgrade - The acceleration of industrial upgrades is evident with 733 projects underway and an investment of 50.1 billion yuan, with significant growth in aerospace, computer, and automotive engine manufacturing [11]. - The number of technology-based enterprises reached 182, with a loan balance growth of 18.7% [11]. - The employment rate of graduates from local universities is 18.3%, with 38.1% for doctoral graduates [11]. Group 5: Urban Development - High-quality urban construction is progressing, with the completion of major infrastructure projects like the expansion of Taiping International Airport [13]. - The city has implemented 32 road and bridge projects and constructed 26,600 new parking spaces [13]. - Historical and cultural preservation efforts include the restoration of 33 heritage sites and the enhancement of urban green spaces [13]. Group 6: Social Welfare - Urban employment increased by 98,900, with 2,000 affordable housing units under construction [15]. - Public services improved with the addition of 38 vocational education programs and 38,300 new quality school places [15]. - Safety and stability in the social environment were maintained, with a decrease in debt rates and criminal cases [15].

Economic Overview - In 2025, Hangzhou's GDP reached 23,011 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.2% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Hangzhou was 569 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.8% for planting, 5.3% for forestry, 0.2% for animal husbandry, and 4.2% for fishery [2] - Major agricultural products included a total grain output of 599,000 tons (up 3.9%), vegetable output of 3,860,000 tons (up 3.6%), and fruit output of 900,000 tons (up 3.9%) [2] Industrial Growth - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,624 billion yuan, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 13.4%) and automotive manufacturing (up 36.7%) [3] - New quality productivity showed remarkable results, with high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, and high-end equipment manufacturing growing by 7.5%, 10.0%, and 9.5% respectively [3] - Production of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment saw explosive growth rates of 383.0%, 38.6%, and 15.1% respectively [3] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry was 16,997 billion yuan, with the profit-making service sector growing by 7.0% and financial services by 6.4% [4] - From January to November, the revenue of the service industry above designated size reached 21,168 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, with the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 13.4% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hangzhou reached 9,499 billion yuan, indicating a stable and upgrading consumption pattern [5] - The "8+4" economic policy led to significant growth in retail sales of household appliances (up 42.8%) and communication equipment (up 31.4%) [5] - Upgrading consumption demands were strong, with sports and entertainment goods growing by 45.3% and cosmetics by 12.3% [5] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value was 9,072 billion yuan, with exports at 6,469 billion yuan and imports at 2,603 billion yuan [6] - The export of electromechanical products reached 3,107 billion yuan (up 10.9%), and high-tech products reached 1,001 billion yuan (up 9.9%) [6] - The private economy accounted for 77.0% of total exports, with exports to Belt and Road countries growing by 14.1% [6] Living Standards - The per capita disposable income of residents was 80,017 yuan, with balanced growth across four income sources [7] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 86,640 yuan (up 3.9%), while rural residents had 53,565 yuan (up 5.4%), narrowing the income gap to 1.62 [7] Price Stability - In 2025, the consumer price index remained stable compared to the previous year, with six categories of goods experiencing price increases and two categories seeing declines [8] - Hangzhou aims to achieve a GDP of 30 trillion yuan and a per capita GDP of over 30,000 USD by 2030, focusing on policy coordination and market demand stimulation [8]