Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector, with a focus on companies with stable performance and reasonable valuations [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of 1.71% this week, closing at 1415.04 points, while the average market capitalization of A-share constituent stocks is 3.083 billion [5][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations in the North Exchange, particularly in the context of the 2025 investment landscape [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the North Exchange A-share market consists of 268 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.083 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index saw a decline of 1.71% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.54% [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 27.983 billion, down 17.81% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 3.18% [5][24]. Stock and Industry Performance - In the past week, 50 stocks increased in value, while 217 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 18.66%, which is a decrease of 74.63 percentage points week-on-week [17]. - The top five performing industries were Beauty Care (8.60%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.9%), Pharmaceutical Biology (1.57%), Transportation (0.60%), and Environmental Protection (0.47%). Conversely, the bottom five industries included Electronics (-4.86%), Automotive (-4.58%), Communications (-3.92%), Media (-3.88%), and Public Utilities (-3.22%) [19][22]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed on the North Exchange this week, but one company, Jinhua New Materials, passed the review for listing, while another, Beikang Testing, is scheduled for review next week [28][29]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: - Tongli Co., Ltd. (stock code: 834599.BJ) with a buy rating and an expected EPS of 1.99 for 2025 [6]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (stock code: 835174.BJ) also rated as buy with an expected EPS of 1.64 for 2025 [6]. - Kaide Quartz (stock code: 835179.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 1.03 for 2025 [6]. - Hualing Co., Ltd. (stock code: 430139.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 0.34 for 2025 [6]. - Hengtou Open Source (stock code: 834415.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 0.22 for 2025 [6]. - Tianli Composite (stock code: 873576.BJ) rated as buy with an expected EPS of 1.03 for 2025 [6].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产相对平稳，沥青开工边际改善，出行强度保持高位。 【工业生产】工业生产相对平稳。 本周，高炉开工率同比基本持平前周，录得0.7%。化工链生产有所回 暖，纯碱、PTA、涤纶长丝开工同比分别+1.9pct至-3.5%、+0.4pct至2.2%、+0.5pct至4.2%。相比之下，汽 车半钢胎开工率大幅下滑，同比-7.7pct至-9.0%。 【建筑业开工】沥青开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比+0.6pct至-1.3%；水泥出货率仍在低位， 同比-1.8pct至-4.2%。沥青开工率有所回升，同比+2.2pct至6.8%。 【下游需求】地产成交大幅回落，出行强度保持高位。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积回落，同比-37.8pct 至-32.7%；其中，三线成交降幅较大。货运方面，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量有所回落，同比-3pct至 0.6%；集运价格有所回落、环比-1.9%，美西航线运价大幅回落。作为对比，人流出行强度持续上行，全 国迁徙规模指数同比+0.3pct至14.5%。国内执行航班架次同比+1.9pct至3 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with the operating rate for semi-steel tires dropping by 7.7 percentage points to 9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to 4.2% year-on-year, indicating weak demand [2][29] - The national grinding operating rate for cement is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% year-on-year, but overall demand remains subdued [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly declined, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year [2][53] - The freight volume related to domestic demand shows a slight increase, while port cargo throughput related to exports has decreased by 3% [2][62] - Travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% year-on-year [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork prices down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices show a slight increase, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in travel [2][74] - Container shipping prices have declined, with the CCFI composite index down by 1.9% [2][92]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "involution" is most pronounced among young people, with average weekly working hours increasing by over 4 hours in the past five years. The average weekly working hours for employees aged 25-34 rose from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023 [3][28] - The average daily working time in China increased by 21 minutes from 2018 to 2023, reaching 48.3 hours per week, while the time spent on purchasing goods and services dropped from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day [2][9] - The "involution" trend is particularly evident in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while the real estate and life service sectors have seen a decrease in working hours [2][21] Group 2 - Current policies to combat "involution" focus on encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave, but these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root causes of prolonged working hours [4][35] - The root cause of "involution" is the uneven distribution of employment across industries, with excessive employment in manufacturing leading to "involution" and insufficient employment in the service sector [4][48] - There is a significant employment gap in the life service sector, with a potential to absorb more jobs, as the wage growth in this sector (18.1%) outpaces that of manufacturing (10.7%) [5][61] Group 3 - The long-term direction for combating "involution" involves aligning supply structures with changing demand structures, particularly as consumer demand trends towards services [6][85] - Global experiences indicate that as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000 and urbanization rates hit 70%, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increases by approximately 0.6% annually [6][86] - The aging population is expected to drive service consumption, with each 1% increase in the aging rate correlating with a 1.3% increase in service consumption share [6][93]

继首批自由现金流ETF成立后，方正富邦中证全指自由现金流ETF联接即将开售， 比如设备升级(资本开支)：升级冰箱设备，花了2000元； 备货压力：下个月要进更多货，提前多存了 1000元的库存； 举一个通俗例子：假设你是一位小卖部老板，以下是小卖部的日常经营状况以及自由现金流情况。 总收入：假设这个月你卖出零食饮料，收到现金1万元。 运营成本：进货成本、房租、员工工资等花掉了6000元。 净利润：1万 - 6千 = 4000元 看起来赚了4000块。 但是：你的小卖部有些"必须花的钱"，会计利润里没直接体现： 十个问题，带您看看这只基金该不该买？该怎么买？ 01.什么是自由现金流？ | 中证现金流-前20大成份股 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集中度 | 存名 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 持仓权重 | | 甲刀三袋行业 | | 美的集团 | 1 000333. SZ | | 10.8% | 10.8% | 空调 | | 油气开采II | 2 600938. SH | 中国海海 | 10. 3% | 21. 1% | | | 3 | 00 ...

股指周报：美国关税豁免本周到期，不确定性引发市场避险 正信期货股指期货周报 20250707 研究员：蒲祖林 投资咨询证号：Z0017203 理性投资，风险自担 Email：puzl@zxqh.net 核心观点 风险提示：中东地缘冲突和中美贸易摩擦扰动、美联储降息不及预期，中国未释放政策利多信号 宏观：美国对各国90天豁免期本周结束，关注美国与各国谈判进展，尤其是欧盟和日本、印度等国的结果，关税政策 对市场的冲击仍有不确定性风险，参考2018年的路径，需谨防特朗普极限施压的负面情绪冲击。国内经济各领域步入 季节性回升转折窗口，市场仍预期7月底关于经济工作的政治局会议利多。 中观：地产销售低位季节性回升，但力度有限，总体旺季不旺，服务业结构分化且暑期季节性升温，5月实体经济中生 产和投资退坡，消费在财政补贴提振下扛起大旗，制造业抢出口近入尾声，三季度或有脉冲回落压力，国内反内卷式政 策出台，供给缩减有望扭转商品供需平衡，物价有望震荡回升，关注本周CPI和PPI的表现。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，海外流动性在美国经济数据韧性扰动下边际收紧，金融条件反复波动，美元指数有望超跌 反弹，国内股市将获得增量资金，被动ET ...

Core Insights - Guangdong's service industry revenue for the first five months reached 2.37 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [1] Revenue Growth by Sector - Transportation, warehousing, and postal services experienced a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [1] - Information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 8.3% [1] - Real estate (excluding real estate development) saw an increase of 2.6% [1] - Rental and business services also grew by 9.3% [1] - Scientific research and technical services had a growth of 1.8% [1] - Water, environment, and public facilities management declined by 1.9% [1] - Resident services, repair, and other services decreased by 1.6% [1] - Education sector grew by 5.7% [1] - Health and social work experienced a decline of 1.1% [1] - Cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors grew by 4.8% [1]

债券 2025 年 07 月 07 日 可转债茶话会 银行转债陆续退市，如何选择底仓品种 证券分析师 平安观点 光伏设备之外的替代底仓品种，整体上建议在转债价格低时逐渐建仓。光 伏设备转债风险、收益都相对更高，一是建议筛选龙头个券，如营业收入、 净利润排名在行业前几位的个券；二是为评级下调留有余地，避免被动出 库抛售。 风险提示：底仓品种行业基本面大幅恶化；可转债价格上涨过快，底仓品 种可投范围快速收缩；可转债评级大规模下调。 债 券 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 债 券 报 告 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 liulu979@ pingan.com.cn 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070001 chenweining369@ pingan.com.cn 年内银行转债余额或收缩约 1000 亿元，25 年末余额或在 900 亿元左右。 截至 25 年 6 月 30 日，市场上银行转债还有 10 只、余额 1349 亿元。在 此基础上，杭银转债、南银转债已强赎，齐鲁转债接近强赎，浦发转债将 于 10 月到期，25 年末相较于 24 年末，银行转债余额或将 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant advancements in China's transportation infrastructure, including the installation of over 890,000 kilowatts of clean energy capacity and the completion of 35,000 charging stations, alongside a railway electrification rate of 75.3% [1] - The transportation sector is recognized as a foundational and strategic industry in the national economy, benefiting from the integration of advanced technologies such as digital information and artificial intelligence, which provide a platform for new productive forces [1][2] - The focus is shifting from traditional scale expansion to innovation-driven development, necessitating upgrades to existing infrastructure and the cultivation of new business models to meet emerging consumer demands [1][2] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on technological innovation within the transportation sector, advocating for the development of smart transportation and logistics through the integration of big data, the internet, and artificial intelligence [2] - The transportation industry serves as a testing ground for advanced technologies and a platform for the incubation of new industries, highlighting its role in enhancing the quality of life for the public [2] - To achieve high-quality development, the sector must prioritize innovation and reform, leveraging modern information technologies to enhance the intelligence of transportation systems [2] Group 3 - High-quality development in the transportation sector also requires a commitment to green development, with a focus on achieving carbon peak targets and promoting low-carbon transportation methods [3] - The industry is encouraged to adopt a philosophy of ecological priority and green development, integrating environmental protection into all aspects of transportation [3] - There is a call for structural adjustments within the transportation sector to promote green travel and the use of new energy, alongside efforts to enhance the management of aging infrastructure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of promoting the sustainable, healthy, and high-quality development of the private economy as a major long-term policy of the state [1] - As of July 4, there are 11,842 projects being promoted to private capital with a total investment of 10.19 trillion yuan [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized the introduction of over 3,200 new projects to private capital, involving a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, focusing on key areas such as transportation, energy, and new infrastructure [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" since May 20 aims to ensure fair competition and promote investment financing, allowing private economic organizations to participate equally in various sectors [3] - The number of items in the "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" has been reduced from 117 to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions [4] - Local governments have recently published project lists for private capital, with Beijing releasing 119 key projects totaling approximately 124.4 billion yuan, and Henan Province announcing 75 major projects with a total investment of 33 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The current wave of project promotion signals a deepening of market-oriented reforms and optimization of resource allocation, aiming to attract private enterprises to enhance project construction and operational efficiency [7] - The focus on attracting private capital is particularly significant in areas such as technological innovation and new infrastructure, where private investment is seen as a crucial driver for industrial upgrading and high-quality economic development [7]