融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力量均衡期。 相 ...

分行业看，业绩增幅预计翻倍股主要集中在电子、基础化工、医药生物等行业，分别有20只、19只、15 只个股上榜；所属板块来看，业绩预计翻倍股中，主板、创业板、科创板、北交所分别有80只、42只、 12只、2只。 （原标题：2025年业绩高增长股提前看 136股净利润增幅翻倍） 717家公司公布了全年业绩预告，业绩预增公司有232家，占比32.36%。 业绩预喜公司中，以预计净利润增幅中值统计，共有136家公司净利润增幅超100%；净利润增幅在 50%~100%之间的有119家。具体到个股看，回盛生物预计净利润增幅最高。公司预计全年实现净利润 增幅中值为1355.24%；南方精工、上海谊众预计全年净利润同比增幅中值分别为1273.50%、831.86%， 增幅位列第二、第三。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，业绩预计翻倍股今年以来平均上涨13.25%，表现强于沪指。个股来看，今 年以来涨幅最大的是金海通，累计上涨88.03%；佰维存储、中泰股份今年以来分别上涨63.60%、 58.73%紧随其后。股价下跌个股中，鹏辉能源跌幅最大，累计下跌15.67%，跌幅较大的还有弘元绿 能、德福科技，累计跌幅分别为13.77%、12 ...

基金最新调仓动向曝光，654只股基金新进持有，其中，基金新建仓比例超3%的共有12只股。 根据刚刚披露完毕的基金去年四季报，2977只股票出现在基金重仓股名单。调仓动向显示，654只股新 进基金重仓股名单，增持个股1128只，减持1170只，24只股持股量环比上一季度未发生变化。 基金新进且高比例持有个股中，2股为近半年内上市的次新股，百奥赛图上市日期为2025年12月10日， 最新现身53家基金重仓股名单，合计持股量为773.42万股，占流通股比例为21.55%；必贝特-U上市日期 为2025年10月28日，重仓基金共有72家，合计持股量为173.78万股，占流通股比例为3.74%。 从重仓基金家数看，基金高比例新建仓个股中，基金家数最多的是必贝特-U，共有72家基金抱团持 有，百奥赛图、星图测控、超捷股份等分别获53家、30家、25家基金重仓。 市场表现方面，基金高比例新进股去年四季度以来平均上涨58.85%，其中，上涨的有12只，涨幅居前 的有超捷股份、前沿生物-U、力星股份（300421）等，涨幅分别为285.08%、80.32%、77.77%。 公布2025年业绩预告的共有2只，业绩预告类型来看，预 ...

83家科创板公司提前对2025年业绩进行预告，业绩预亏的有26家，业绩预增的有26家，业绩减亏的有22 家，业绩预降的有6家，业绩预盈的有3家。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至1月23日，有83家公司公布了2025年业绩预告。业绩预告类型显示，预 增公司26家、预盈3家，合计报喜公司比例为34.94%；业绩预降公司6家、预亏公司有26家。 业绩预喜公司中，以预计净利润增幅中值统计，共有12家公司净利润增幅超100%；净利润增幅在 50%~100%之间的有11家。 具体到个股看，上海谊众预计净利润增幅最高。公司预计2025年净利润增幅中值为831.86%；佰维存 储、中科蓝讯预计净利润同比增幅中值分别为473.71%、371.51%，增幅位列第二、第三。 | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告日期 | 业绩预告类型 | 预计净利润增幅中值（%） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688091 | 上海谊众 | 2026.01.22 | 预增 | 831.86 | 医药生物 | | 688525 | 佰维存储 | 2026.01.14 | 预增 | 473.7 ...

融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 策略定期报告 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力 ...

融资余额降幅前20只个股 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至1月22日，沪市两融余额13767.95亿元，较前一交易日增加21.87亿元； 深市两融余额13391.33亿元，较前一交易日增加17.66亿元；北交所两融余额89.85亿元，较前一交易日 减少0.62亿元；深沪北两融余额合计27249.13亿元，较前一交易日增加38.90亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1756只，占比46.55%，其中，311股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是中超控股，该股最新融资余额6.12亿元，较前一交易日增幅达119.34%；股价 表现上，该股当日上涨10.04%，表现强于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有华新精科、潍柴重机，融资 余额增幅分别为57.00%、51.33%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨6.95%，涨幅居前的有特瑞斯、三角防务、富 满微，涨幅分别为29.98%、19.99%、15.19%。跌幅居前的有聚胶股份、广钢气体、汇隆活塞，跌幅分 别为8.16%、6.44%、5.05%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新融资余额（万 | 较前一个交易日增减 ...

Group 1 - In the fourth quarter of last year, 464 Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks appeared in the fund's heavy holdings list, with 60 new additions, 193 increased holdings, and 207 reduced holdings compared to the previous quarter [1] - The total shareholding amount for these stocks reached 4.801 billion shares, with a total market value of 536.151 billion yuan at the end of the period [1] - Major stocks held by funds include SMIC, Hu Silicon Industry, and Lanke Technology, with respective holdings of 377 million shares, 295 million shares, and 268 million shares [1] Group 2 - The stocks with the highest fund holdings include Baijie Shenzhou, Baili Tianheng, and Zhongke Feicai, with fund ownership ratios of 26.20%, 25.07%, and 24.51% respectively [2] - A total of 184 stocks were held by more than 10 funds, while 80 stocks saw collective new investments from 5 to 9 funds [1][2] - The stock with the most fund holders is Cambricon, with 1,067 funds collectively holding 5.935 million shares, accounting for 14.19% of its circulating shares [1][2] Group 3 - In terms of new investments, 60 stocks were newly added, with Frontier Biotech, Baio Saitu, and New Xiangwei having the largest new holdings of 11.3733 million shares, 7.7342 million shares, and 7.1080 million shares respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest increase in holdings include Shenkong Co., Fangyuan Co., and Longda Co., with Shenkong Co. seeing a staggering increase of 59,020.96% in holdings [2] - Significant reductions were noted in stocks such as Tiejian Heavy Industry, Sikan Technology, and Electric Wind Power, with reductions of 100.00%, 99.91%, and 99.63% respectively [2]

Group 1 - In the fourth quarter of last year, a total of 2,977 stocks appeared on the list of heavily held stocks by funds, with 107 stocks having a fund holding ratio exceeding 10% [1] - Among the stocks with a fund holding ratio over 10%, 14 stocks had a holding ratio exceeding 20%, while 93 stocks had a holding ratio between 10% and 20% [1] - The stock with the highest fund holding ratio is Xinyi Technology, held by 1,396 funds, with a total holding of 289 million shares, accounting for 32.67% of its circulating share capital [1] Group 2 - A total of 56 stocks saw an increase in fund holdings in the fourth quarter, with the largest increases in holdings for ShenGong Co., Tianhua New Energy, and Maiwei Co., with increases of 59,020.96%, 15,808.35%, and 959.13% respectively [1] - Conversely, 48 stocks experienced a decrease in fund holdings, with the largest reductions for Nuocheng Jianhua-U, Kaitai Co., and Keda Li, with decreases of 43.91%, 41.04%, and 39.95% respectively [1] - Three new stocks entered the fund holding list, with the highest holding ratios for BaiAo SaiTu, LiTong Technology, and XingTu CeKong at 21.55%, 12.60%, and 10.03% respectively [1] Group 3 - Among stocks with a fund holding ratio over 10%, 42 stocks were held by more than 100 funds, while 29 stocks were held by 50 to 99 funds [2] - The stock with the most fund holders is Ningde Times, held by 2,056 funds with a total holding ratio of 11.63% [2] - The industry distribution of heavily held stocks is primarily concentrated in electronics, biomedicine, and power equipment, with 28, 20, and 11 stocks respectively [2] Group 4 - A total of 21 stocks have announced performance forecasts for 2025, with 16 expecting profit increases, 2 expecting profit decreases, and 2 expecting losses [2] - The stock with the highest expected net profit growth is Baiwei Storage, with an anticipated year-on-year increase of 473.71%, followed by Changxin Bochuang and BaiAo SaiTu with expected increases of 378.70% and 303.57% respectively [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing narrow consolidation with the three major indices showing slight gains, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase after continuous volume increases [7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include Construction Materials (up 4.09%), National Defense and Military Industry (up 3.23%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (up 3.07%) [3][4] - Conversely, the sectors with the poorest performance include Beauty and Personal Care (down 0.76%), Banking (down 0.43%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (down 0.42%) [3][4] Concept Indices - Among concept indices, the Domestic Aircraft Carrier concept led with a gain of 3.82%, followed by Combustible Ice (up 3.57%) and Large Aircraft (up 3.04%) [3][4] - On the downside, sectors such as Sci-Tech New Stocks and Photoresists saw declines of 1.09% and 0.93%, respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue receiving support from multiple favorable factors, including the "14th Five-Year" industrial guidance, overseas liquidity easing, and domestic policy support [7] - The upcoming economic stabilization policies are expected to drive market risk appetite higher, suggesting a potential upward trend as the spring market approaches [7] Government Initiatives - A significant government initiative includes the allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, which is projected to stimulate total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [6]

数据显示，公募基金2025年四季度仓位聚焦电子、电力设备等核心赛道，光模块龙头中际旭创和新易 盛，超越宁德时代和腾讯控股，成为主动权益基金前两大重仓股。 公募基金2025年四季报披露收官。 中际旭创登顶主动权益基金头号重仓股 天相投顾数据显示，截至2025年四季度末，中际旭创登顶主动权益基金头号重仓股，位列第二到第十大 重仓股的分别是新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州 茅台、东山精密，覆盖AI、新能源、互联网、消费、电子等方向。 多股获基金锁定20%以上的流通筹码 从基金持仓集中度来看，据Wind数据，宁德时代、中际旭创、紫金矿业、新易盛、中国平安、腾讯控 股、寒武纪-U、贵州茅台、美的集团等个股最受公募青睐，均获超千只基金持有。从持股锁定程度来 看，2025年四季度末，中际旭创、新易盛、东山精密、浙江荣泰、海思科、斯菱智驱、恒勃股份等个 股，基金持股数量占流通A股比例均超20%，筹码集中效应显著。 板块配置上，公募基金对成长板块的偏好持续升温。2025年四季度末，基金持股市值占科创板、创业板 流通市值的比例均超5%，位居各板块前列。相较于三季度末，基金对创业板的仓 ...