Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a significant increase in net subscriptions and notable gains in constituent stocks [1][3]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, closing up 0.8% after reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.5%. It recorded a net subscription of 52 million units by the end of the day [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as TianKang Biological and GuanNong Co., saw increases exceeding 7%, while several others, including XiongDi Technology and ShengWu Shares, rose over 4% [1]. Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with a reported decrease of 400,000 breeding sows compared to the previous month and a total reduction of 3.4 million from the peak last year [2]. - Recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, China, have heightened risks for the farming sector. A meeting on September 16 emphasized policies aimed at reducing production capacity [2][3]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from Pacific Securities and Dongfang Securities suggest that the current fundamentals and policy changes favor capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, indicating potential long-term investment value as most listed companies are at historical low valuations [3][4]. - The agricultural sector's valuation remains low, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.61, which is in the lower 34.9% of the past decade, suggesting a favorable entry point for investors [3]. Future Trends - The trend towards improving quality and efficiency in the pig farming industry is expected to continue, with outdated capacities being phased out and market dynamics shifting towards higher prices in the long term [4][5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various segments, including pig farming, feed, animal health, and crop planting, as the demand for these sectors is anticipated to rise with the recovery of pig stocks [5][6].

- The report utilizes a methodology from the industry rotation series to track the configuration signals and business indicators of various industries, including coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries [9] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Coal Industry Model - **Model Name**: Coal Industry Profit and Revenue Growth Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth of the coal industry based on the changes in price and production capacity factors [10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The long-term contract mechanism for thermal coal determines the sales price for the next month based on the price index of the last month - Monthly revenue and profit growth are estimated using the year-on-year changes in price factors and production capacity factors [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts that the coal industry profit for October 2025 will continue to decline year-on-year due to coal prices being lower than the same period last year [14] Livestock Farming Model - **Model Name**: Livestock Supply and Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the relationship between the number of breeding sows and the quarterly pig slaughter rate to estimate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months later [15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly pig slaughter and the number of breeding sows six months prior - Formula: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (lagged 6 months)}} $ [15] - Potential production capacity after 6 months is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Production Capacity (6 months later)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (current month)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 months prior)} $ [16] - Potential demand after 6 months is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (6 months later)} = \text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter (6 months prior)} $ [16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical experience shows that the slaughter coefficient method effectively identifies pig price upward cycles [16] Steel Industry Model - **Model Name**: Steel Industry Profit and Unit Profit Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and calculates unit profit for the steel industry by considering comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel [18] - **Model Construction Process**: - Comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators are used to predict monthly profit growth - Unit profit is calculated based on the difference between steel prices and costs [18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts that the steel industry profit for September 2025 will grow year-on-year, but the PMI rolling 12-month average remains flat, maintaining a neutral configuration viewpoint [23] Structural Materials and Building Engineering Model - **Model Name**: Glass and Cement Industry Profit Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement manufacturing industries using price and cost indicators, and designs configuration signals based on profitability changes [25] - **Model Construction Process**: - Price and cost indicators are used to track profitability changes - Configuration signals are designed based on profitability changes [25] - **Model Evaluation**: - Glass industry profit turned positive year-on-year in September 2025, leading to an upgrade to a positive configuration signal [30] - Cement industry profit remained flat year-on-year, and no positive signals were observed in new housing starts, maintaining a neutral configuration viewpoint [30] Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model - **Model Name**: Fuel Refining and Oil Services Profit and Configuration Signal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates industry profit growth and cracking spreads based on changes in refined fuel prices and crude oil prices, and designs configuration signals based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes [31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Refined fuel price changes and crude oil price changes are used to estimate industry profit growth and cracking spreads - Configuration signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes [31] - **Model Evaluation**: - The model predicts that the fuel refining industry profit for September 2025 will grow year-on-year due to lower inventory costs from recent low oil prices [31] - Observations show that oil prices in September 2025 were lower than the same period last year, maintaining a neutral configuration viewpoint for the fuel refining and oil services industries [37][38] Model Backtesting Results Coal Industry Model - **Profit Growth**: Predicted to continue declining year-on-year in October 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the same period last year [14] Livestock Farming Model - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: 4,038 million heads as of August 2025, slightly decreased month-on-month [17] - **Potential Production Capacity (26Q1)**: 19,361 million heads [17] - **Potential Demand (26Q1)**: 19,476 million heads [17] - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Slightly tight [17] Steel Industry Model - **Profit Growth**: Predicted to grow year-on-year in September 2025 [23] - **PMI Rolling Average**: Remained flat for 12 months, not exceeding the threshold [23] Structural Materials and Building Engineering Model - **Glass Industry Profitability**: Turned positive year-on-year in September 2025 [30] - **Cement Industry Profitability**: Remained flat year-on-year in September 2025 [30] - **Manufacturing PMI Rolling Average**: Remained flat for 12 months [30] - **Housing Sales Area**: Observed a year-on-year decline in August 2025 [30] Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model - **Fuel Refining Industry Profitability**: Predicted to grow year-on-year in September 2025 due to lower inventory costs [31] - **Oil Price**: Observed to be lower than the same period last year in September 2025 [37] - **New Drilling Activity**: No significant year-on-year changes observed in the US [38]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a price increase after a low opening, indicating positive market sentiment in this sector [1][5]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, achieving a maximum intraday increase of 1.5% and closing up 0.3% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guannong Co. (up 6.89%) and Shengwu Co. (up 4.52%), led the gains, with several others also showing increases of over 3% [1][5]. Price Trends - National average pig prices fell to 12.55 CNY/kg as of October 7, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the pre-holiday period, following a 10% drop in September [2][3]. - The decline in pig prices has resulted in significant losses for farmers, with losses of 54 CNY per pig for self-bred pigs and 128 CNY for purchased piglets [2][3]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Agriculture, has signaled a clear policy direction towards reducing production capacity in the pig industry, which is expected to enhance market dynamics [3][4]. - The current low valuation of the agricultural sector, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.61, suggests a favorable time for investment [3][4]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the ongoing measures to counteract overproduction in the pig industry will lead to a gradual increase in pig prices in the medium to long term [4][5]. - The focus on improving quality and efficiency in the pig industry, along with the elimination of outdated production capacity, is expected to benefit financially stable producers [4][5].

10月4日是假期第4天，该为中秋节的到来准备食材了。家庭聚会是件乐事，肉菜必不可少，而红烧肉、 回锅肉、糖醋里脊这些菜都离不开猪。 住在一年四季恒温25℃的"宿舍"里，吃的是全封闭链路运输来的"食材"、被根据身体情况精准投喂—— 这样的智慧生活，"二师兄们"先享受到了。 "现在的猪过得比人还舒坦呢。"一位朋友说起养殖行业这些年的进化，给出了一个很夸张的表述——即 便是装了中央空调的房间，也未必比"二师兄"的宿舍舒服。 企业和养殖场为防疫而在猪舍上大把投资并不稀奇，这毕竟关乎存亡。但猪舍能有多舒服？ 为求证上述说法，《每日经济新闻》记者联系了畜牧养殖企业牧原股份（SZ002714，收盘价53元，总 市值2895.27亿元）。公司一位负责人向记者展示了猪舍的监控画面：白色的隔板间内，等距离排列的 换风口在呼呼运转，一头头白花花的猪惬意地躺在猪舍里，每间猪舍还有个喷淋头。镜头外，养殖场的 工作人员不时会用智能控制器调整猪舍的环境状态。 "这是智能环控设备，可以让猪舍一年四季都保持在25摄氏度左右，这种环境下，每只猪每天能多长二 两肉。"前述负责人向记者介绍。 除了适宜的生长环境，饲喂环节也有AI（人工智能）帮忙。智 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in pig farming through the integration of AI technology, which enhances the living conditions of pigs and optimizes feeding and health management processes, ultimately leading to improved efficiency and productivity in the industry [1][12]. Group 1: Modern Pig Farming Practices - Modern pig farms are equipped with intelligent environmental control systems that maintain a constant temperature of around 25 degrees Celsius, allowing pigs to grow more efficiently, with each pig gaining an additional 200 grams of weight daily [4][11]. - The feeding process is enhanced by AI-driven precision feeding management systems that tailor feed based on various factors such as breed, age, and health status, thereby improving feed utilization and reducing waste [6][7]. Group 2: Health Monitoring and Management - AI plays a crucial role in health monitoring through a disease monitoring and early warning system that analyzes the sounds of coughing among pigs to predict potential health issues, thus improving overall herd health management [10][12]. - The integration of various sensors allows for real-time monitoring of over ten indicators related to the pigs' environment and health, which helps in preemptive health management and reduces labor costs [10][11]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Future Directions - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of AI in agriculture, supporting the digital transformation of farming practices, including pig farming [11]. - Companies like Muyuan Foods, New Hope, and Wens Foodstuffs are leading the way in smart farming, with plans for further investments in AI technology to enhance production efficiency and management standards [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].

Core Points - Five Finger Mountain City held a signing ceremony for investment projects with a total investment exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, covering various industries including cultural tourism, tropical agriculture, health care, and high-tech sectors [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - A total of 5 projects were signed, including the Fenyunlu Five Finger Mountain Health and Tourism Complex, a beverage factory, an Atlantic salmon full industry chain project, a rural vacation complex, and a pig breeding project [1] - The Fenyunlu project is the largest single investment project with a total investment of approximately 1.12 billion yuan, planned to be constructed in three phases [2] Group 2: Project Details - The Fenyunlu project will include a comprehensive training base for cycling, an athletics and football field, and other related sports training facilities, along with a tourism area integrating economic forestry, traditional medicine planting, cultural experiences, and leisure tourism [2] - The project is expected to be completed within 5 years [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant inflow of 113 million shares into the breeding ETF (159865), indicating strong investor interest in breeding assets [1] - Recent low pork prices are noted as a critical factor, with pork being a core commodity that influences the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by over 20%, emphasizing its importance to the macro economy [1] - A meeting held on September 16, 2025, by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission focused on regulating pig production capacity, mandating leading companies to reduce production by year-end, which signals an accelerated phase of capacity reduction in the pig industry [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the breeding sector is entering a favorable configuration window, making it a potential area for investment [1] - For investors without stock accounts, it recommends the Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF Connect C (012725) as alternative investment options [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongmu Co., Ltd. (600195.SH), is taking steps to optimize its asset structure and reduce management costs by coordinating with the Lanzhou government to have its idle assets expropriated, aiming to maximize shareholder value [1] Group 1: Asset Expropriation - The Lanzhou government has agreed to expropriate the land, buildings, and equipment of Zhongmu Co., Ltd. located at No. 2, Yanchang Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou [1] - The total assessed value of the land use rights and buildings is approximately 218.10 million yuan, while the assessed value of the equipment is about 10.87 million yuan, leading to a total compensation amount of 228.98 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of live pigs has reached a new low, prompting 25 major pig farming companies to be required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in the livestock farming sector [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of mid-September, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 13 yuan per kilogram, marking a new low [1] - The main futures contract for live pigs (LH2511) fell to 12.595 yuan per kilogram, also a new low [1] - The average price of live pigs is now below the cost line for some farming enterprises, leading to widespread losses in the sector [1] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The profit from purchasing piglets was reported at -199.31 yuan per head, while self-breeding profits were at -24.44 yuan per head, indicating a return to losses after over 16 months of profitability [1] - The average weight of pigs at market has increased from 127.8 kg in August to 128.45 kg in September, suggesting higher supply levels [1] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - A meeting was held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, where 25 leading pig farming companies were instructed to reduce production [2] - The policy focus is on "controlling production and nurturing" while detailing the "controlling reproductive capacity" tasks for each farming entity [2] - The industry is expected to undergo accelerated capacity reduction due to the dual pressures of regulatory controls and losses [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen a net inflow of 117 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, indicating investor interest despite current market conditions [1] - The ETF closely tracks the livestock farming index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]