Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways at the bottom [4] - Urea: Short on rallies [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Core Views - Crude oil: The oversupply in the off - season remains the core driver, and the upside of oil prices is under pressure. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, and OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and then pause in early next year. With the start of the consumption off - season and OPEC+ still in the expansion cycle, the pressure of oversupply is rising, and oil prices face significant downward pressure [2]. - LPG: Weak oil prices bring negative impacts to the cost side, and the trend of LPG is weak. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side pressure restricts its upward movement [2]. - L: The decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient, with weak cost support [2]. - PP: The sharp decline in coking coal and the weak cost side lead to a weak fundamental situation. There is high pressure to destock, and oil prices still face the risk of further decline in the medium term [2]. - PVC: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space. The market maintains a high premium, and industries are advised to hedge at high prices [2]. - PX: The supply - side devices have increased their loads, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [2]. - PTA: The processing fee is generally low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the rebound height may be limited due to the pressure on crude oil [4]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. It has low valuation but lacks upward drivers [4]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [4]. - Urea: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. It is necessary to be vigilant against the downward risk [4]. - Natural gas: As the temperature drops, the consumption peak season arrives, and the demand has a warming expectation, making gas prices likely to rise and difficult to fall [7]. - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price has回调ed, and the supply - demand fundamentals are loose. The demand has entered the off - season, and the valuation is high. The price center still has room to move down [7]. - Glass: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - Soda ash: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. WTI rose 1.43%, Brent rose 1.72%, and SC fell 0.17% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season, and the short - term driver is OPEC's prediction of oversupply in 2026. OPEC predicts an increase of 600,000 barrels per day in non - OPEC production in 2026, and the global demand increments in 2025 and 2026 are 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5.924 million barrels per day [10][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, although the short - term trend is strong, the upward pressure is increasing. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions. Pay attention to the range of [460 - 475] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 12, the PG main contract closed at 4,349 yuan/ton, up 0.39% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has shown some resilience. The inventory in ports and factories has declined, and the import profit has increased, with expected higher future imports [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the central price is expected to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a low basis and high valuation. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,788 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The basis and other indicators also had corresponding changes [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, with weak cost support [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, partially reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed accordingly [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in coking coal leads to a weak fundamental situation. The inventory in the upper and middle reaches is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices face the risk of further decline in the medium term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, short - term decline stops, and short positions can be reduced. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing from a high level. In the short - term, during the macro - policy window period, the market returns to weak fundamentals. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a high premium. Industries are advised to hedge at high prices. Be cautious when chasing short due to low - valuation support. Pay attention to the range of [4500 - 4650] for V [28]. PX - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have increased their loads. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose, and PX follows the cost in the short term [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up on a single - side trade. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the downstream processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6770] for PX [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of TA contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, showed corresponding changes [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Although the fundamentals have improved in the short term, the upward space is limited due to the pressure on crude oil [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: On a single - side trade, look for opportunities to go long on dips. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the TA processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [4600 - 4670] for TA [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of EG contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but it lacks upward drivers and follows the cost in the short term [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3835 - 3900] for EG [36]. Methanol - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a weak sideways trend. Hold short positions cautiously at low valuations. For arbitrage, pay attention to the MA1 - 3 reverse spread [4]. Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. There are short - term positive factors, but be vigilant against the downward risk [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the export boosts market sentiment, the fundamentals remain weak. Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling back after rising. Pay attention to the range of [1620 - 1650] for UR [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 12, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.47% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions also changed [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The decline in global temperature leads to an increase in demand for combustion and heating, and the gas price is likely to rise. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply - side has some changes, and the demand has shown certain characteristics. The US natural gas inventory has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the temperature cools down, the demand for combustion and heating increases, and the price is likely to rise. However, due to sufficient supply and recent sharp increases, the upward momentum has weakened, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to the range of [4.415 - 4.581] for NG [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 12, the BU main contract closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The cost - side support is decreasing. The supply in November is expected to decline, and the demand has also decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [51] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is support from cold repairs. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Go short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a premium structure. Industries are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. Technically, it is bullish in the short term, but go short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - On November 11th, the prices of glass and soda ash weakened. For glass, the recent supply has remained stable overall, but production profits have been squeezed again, increasing the pressure on the market to force supply reduction. In the context of anti - involution, supply disturbance sentiment is likely to ferment. Despite the arrival of the off - season, the overall terminal demand has remained resilient, and inventories have not accumulated significantly. The current glass valuation is not high, and with the relatively strong coal prices, there is cost support. In the short term, large fluctuations in macro - sentiment cause price volatility. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply persists, and there is significant resistance to price increases. Soda ash generally follows glass, but with relatively average supply - demand conditions, its price is under pressure [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Glass - **Futures Prices**: - For January, May, and September contracts, the closing prices are 1053, 1184, and 1261 respectively, with price drops of 16, 21, and 31, and percentage drops of 1.5%, 1.74%, and 2.4% respectively. - The price spreads between contracts: January - May is - 131, May - September is - 77, and September - January is 208. - **Spot Prices**: In the East China, national, and Northwest regions, the spot prices are 1110, 1240, and 1160 respectively. The basis for the main contract is 57, 187, and 107 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - For January, May, and September contracts, the closing prices are 1215, 1292, and 1356 respectively, with price drops of 11, 8, and 8, and percentage drops of 0.9%, 0.62%, and 0.59% respectively. - The price spreads between contracts: January - May is - 77, May - September is - 64, and September - January is 141. - **Spot Prices**: In the East China and other regions, the spot prices are 1300 and 1250 respectively. The basis for the main contract is - 265, 85, and 35 respectively [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption end may gradually recover. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, so the price will continue the weak shock trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - From the fundamental perspective of iron ore, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the trend of declining hot - metal production continues, the demand side of iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the ore price will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - The black - sector pricing has recently returned to the fundamentals. The market is "attempting" a "negative feedback" transaction in the black sector, but this is considered a phased shock and emotional release with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The height after the callback depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream spot and futures prices can remain firm [14][16]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support for prices continues to weaken. It is expected that the price will continue to run weakly in the short term. For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and the price may continue the shock trend [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6380 tons to 100,612 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 32 lots to 1.923701 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 97,028 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 19,179 lots to 1.326892 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory risk remains. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 763.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the positions decreased by 11,250 lots to 530,400 lots. The weighted positions were 963,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.35% [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production decreased, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory accumulation increased, and the steel mill inventory increased. Fundamentally, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the ore price will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.96% at 5764 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 1.79% at 5588 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a discount of 12 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the black - sector pricing has returned to the fundamentals. The market is "attempting" a "negative feedback" transaction in the black sector, but this is considered a phased shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9180 yuan/ton, down 1.18% (- 110). The weighted positions decreased by 13,304 lots to 426,734 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 230 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 51,930 yuan/ton, down 3.33% (- 1790). The weighted positions increased by 11,791 lots to 234,183 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.2 yuan/kg, all unchanged, with a basis of 270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand sides are weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream spot and futures prices can remain firm [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (- 16). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged, and the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, down 2.654 million cases (- 4.03%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 55,903 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,853 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 11). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1176 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was 899,600 tons, up 13,200 tons, and the light - soda inventory was 814,600 tons, down 1000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 31,273 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 11,482 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support for prices continues to weaken. It is expected that the price will continue to run weakly in the short term. For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and the price may continue the shock trend [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market presents a situation of "weak reality vs strong cost." Both glass and soda ash are in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but cost and policy expectations still support far - month prices [1][6]. - For glass, the 01 contract is considered to be in an oversupply situation. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking. Cold - repair expectations may affect soda ash demand. For soda ash, it is mainly priced by cost, and there is a downward expectation for rigid demand due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - The market is affected by structural contradictions, real - world conditions, and supply disturbances. Near - end trading focuses on weak reality and strong cost, while far - end trading anticipates cost increases and supply contractions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Structural contradictions exist. In the glass market, the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 2400 tons, and the daily melting volume has dropped to 159,100 tons. The market is still considered oversupplied. For soda ash, it is cost - priced, and without production cuts, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The rigid demand for soda ash may decline due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - In reality, the sales of glass manufacturers have weakened after price increases, and the inventory of traders and in Shahe and Hubei remains high, which may cause a negative feedback. Soda ash maintains a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with obvious oversupply, but there is cost support in the long - term [1]. - Supply disturbances exist. In November, besides the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, unexpected cold - repair plans and supply disruptions in the glass industry need to be monitored [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The overall fundamental situation is weak, but cost and policy expectations support far - month prices [6]. - Price range prediction: The price range for the glass 2601 contract is (900, 1300), and for the soda ash 2601 contract is (1100, 1500). It is recommended to avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within these ranges [9]. - Month - spread strategy: Without unexpected production cuts, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Temporarily wait and see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Glass and soda ash price range prediction: Glass 2601 contract (900, 1300), soda ash 2601 contract (1100, 1500). - Strategy suggestions: Avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within the above - mentioned ranges. For the month - spread strategy, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread without unexpected production cuts. Temporarily wait and see for the hedging and arbitrage strategy [9]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management of glass and soda ash, including futures trading and option trading [10]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 9, 2025, was 1117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the glass 01 contract was 1091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [13]. - Soda ash spot prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the soda ash 01 contract was 1210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 1 - 5 month - spread was - 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: None provided. - Negative information: The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines, and the daily melting volume may further decline. Although the glass sales rate has exceeded 100%, the sustainability needs to be observed [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow No specific information provided. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The position of the glass main contract is relatively high this week, and the long - short game may continue until near the delivery. Due to fundamental limitations, the price movement range of glass and soda ash is limited [21]. 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Glass: It maintains a C - structure. The near - end is weak, and the far - end may have cost increases and cold - repair expectations. The 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances [26]. - Soda ash: It also maintains a C - structure. The industry's oversupply expectation remains unchanged. The near - end is suppressed by high production and high inventory, and the far - end may have cost increase expectations. There are few short - term month - spread opportunities [26]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The coal price has risen, and the theoretical cost has increased. Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. At current prices, glass factories have limited willingness to actively cold - repair [38]. - Soda ash: The price of thermal coal has risen, and the cost has increased. The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1260 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1210 yuan/ton [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [47]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 170,000 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the proportion has increased significantly compared to last year. The export in September was over 180,000 tons, maintaining high expectations [48]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 159,000 tons. With the continuous weakness of glass prices and environmental protection policy expectations, there may be an increase in cold - repairs in Hubei and East China [58]. - Soda ash supply: The supply has not shown unexpected fluctuations, and the current daily production of soda ash is maintained at around 105,000 tons, with high - level supply continuing [61]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: After the spot price increase, the sales of manufacturers have weakened. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking, which may cause a negative feedback. The glass demand is currently weak, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and large spot pressure [64][65]. - Soda ash demand: The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly weakened. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 247,200 tons, corresponding to a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 49,000 tons. However, due to cold - repairs in float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand has declined month - on - month [70]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 63.136 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes, or 4.03%. The inventory days have decreased by 0.9 days to 27.1 days. The mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei remains high [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.7142 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 665,600 tons (a decrease of 11,300 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3798 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The upstream inventory is relatively stable, and the oversupply is less than expected [75][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Last week, soda ash production decreased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the manufacturer's shipment rate dropped by 3.14%, and the upstream manufacturer's inventory increased by 12,200 tons. Some soda ash enterprises reduced their loads, and production slightly decreased. The inventory accumulation slowed down. Recently, the supply of soda ash has remained at a high level with narrow fluctuations. Although the enterprise profit has continued to shrink, there has been no significant production cut, and the supply pressure remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream glass has remained low, the improvement in soda ash demand is limited, and the manufacturer's inventory is difficult to deplete. The high supply has hit market confidence, and the futures market is under pressure and operating weakly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [7]. - **Glass**: Last week, 4 coal - fired production lines were shut down, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass. The weekly开工率 and weekly supply decreased. Affected by the news of the technological transformation and shutdown of production lines in the Shahe area, the market production and sales improved, and the manufacturer's inventory continued to decline. Currently, glass is dragged down by the weak real estate market, and the demand outlook is not optimistic. The market expects a reduction in supply. It is expected that there is still room for adjustment and repair in the industry's supply - demand relationship. However, the short - term peak - season consumption is lower than expected, the inventory remains high, and later the consumption will gradually enter the off - season, so the improvement in the supply - demand contradiction may be limited. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly [7]. - **Demand**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. During the week, the soda ash enterprise equipment fluctuated slightly, the production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [7]. - **Glass** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period [8]. - **Supply**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [8]. - **Profit**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 172.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 78.10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.65 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.77 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86 yuan/ton [8]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The mid - stream is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [10]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, color - mixing agents), as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream is flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products such as tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, and coated glass, which are mainly used in the real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronic and electrical (7%) industries [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1091, and the North China basis was 39 yuan/ton [15]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1210, and the North China basis was 90 yuan/ton [18]. - **Contract Spread** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 134 yuan/ton. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 84 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China decreased [24]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [33]. 3.5 Supply - Side - **Glass**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [37]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly. As of November 6, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 43.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [47][50]. 3.6 Demand - Side - **Glass**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [54]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. The enterprise production and sales were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [65].

Glass Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Despite October being the traditional peak season, terminal demand this year was weak and failed to support prices. Supply expectations increased as corporate profits recovered, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, suppressing spot prices. The market was dominated by weak reality, leading to a negative feedback loop and a significant price drop at the beginning of the month. Although there were short - term price rebounds, they lacked momentum due to weak real - estate demand and high inventory. The market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern, and future attention should be paid to production line maintenance and the coal - to - gas conversion process in the Shahe area [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the closing price of the main contract was 1101 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][17]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 172.7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit with coal was 78.1 yuan/ton, up 14.65 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, it was - 1.77 yuan/ton, down 2.86 yuan/ton [12][26][29]. - Supply: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the number of operating production lines was 226, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35% [12][33]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.8 days, down 0.2 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.30%, up 0.6%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 65834.79 million square meters, down 5.5%; in September, it was 8530.87 million square meters, down 11.89%. In September 2025, automobile production and sales were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles, up 17.15%/14.86% year - on - year; from January to September, cumulative production and sales were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][36][39][42]. - Inventory: The national float glass factory inventory was 6313.6 million heavy boxes, down 265.4 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 0 million heavy boxes, down 529.6 million heavy boxes [12][46]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the glass basis situation was as described above [17]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 128 yuan/ton (+22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+5), the 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton (-27), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The profit and cost details using different fuels (natural gas, coal, petroleum coke) were as mentioned above [26][29]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: Weekly output, number of operating production lines, and operating rate were as stated [33]. - Glass Demand: Downstream deep - processing orders and Low - e glass operating rate, as well as real - estate and automobile market data, were as described [36][39][42]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory: National and Shahe area factory inventories were as mentioned [46]. Soda Ash Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The soda ash market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New capacity release and holiday inventory accumulation pressure prices. Downstream demand has not improved, and export orders are weak. Although cost support exists due to industry losses, it has not fully affected prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was 1157 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 1207 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [56][61]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 103.5 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 212 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [56][71][74][77]. - Supply: The weekly output of soda ash was 74.68 tons, down 1.08 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 85.67%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.48 tons, down 0.5 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.2 tons, down 0.58 tons [56][81][84]. - Demand: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in September was 3.08 million tons [56][87]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons; the available inventory days were 14.21 days, up 0.1 days. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 89.96 tons, up 1.32 tons; the light soda ash factory inventory was 81.46 tons, down 0.1 tons [56][91][94]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the soda ash basis situation was as described above [61]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton (+7), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (-5), the 09 - 01 spread was 155 yuan/ton (-2), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [64]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: The profit details of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process were as mentioned above [71]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of steam coal, LNG, raw salt, and synthetic ammonia were as described [74][77]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: Weekly output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of heavy and light soda ash were as stated [81][84]. - Soda Ash Demand: Float glass output and soda ash apparent consumption were as described [87]. 3.5 Inventory - Soda Ash Inventory: Factory inventory, available inventory days, and the inventory of heavy and light soda ash were as mentioned [91][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is weak, but the cost is relatively strong. The game for the 01 contract may continue until delivery. Without unexpected production cuts, a bearish view is maintained for the glass and soda ash 01 contracts [6]. - Structural contradictions still exist. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and the high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.31% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.4%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.69% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 9.8% [1]. Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1225, 1315, and 1091 respectively, with daily changes of - 2, - 4, and - 10, and daily change rates of - 0.16%, - 0.3%, and - 0.91% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Glass Spot**: Some glass spot prices in different regions showed little change on November 7, 2025. For example, the safety brand in the Shahe area remained at 1130, while the Great Wall brand increased by 5 to 1126 [8]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1294, 1363, and 1210 respectively, with daily changes of 1, - 1, and 3, and daily change rates of 0.08%, - 0.07%, and 0.25% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On November 7, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in some regions such as North China and South China remained unchanged, while the light - alkali market price in some regions had slight changes [9][10]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting glass futures (FG2601) and selling call options (FG601C1200) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying glass futures (FG2601) and selling put options (FG601P1000) are recommended [1]. - For soda ash inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling call options (SA601C1400) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling put options (SA601P1200) are recommended [1]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The cost of glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials) still has an upward expectation, which affects the far - month pricing. The industrial policy expectation cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in the upper and middle reaches are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. The supply pressure remains, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. After the glass spot price increases, the production and sales have weakened, and the sustainability needs to be observed [5][6].

Group 1: Glass Price and Contract Information - The price of 5mm large - plate glass from various manufacturers has changed. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan was 1113 on 2025/10/30, 1138 on 2025/11/5, and remained 1138 on 2025/11/6, with a weekly increase of 25 and no daily change [1]. - FG05 contract price was 1243 on 2025/10/30, 1231 on 2025/11/5, and 1227 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 16 and a daily decrease of 4 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired glass profit was 194 on 2025/10/30, 200 on 2025/11/5, and 192.6 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 1.5 and a daily decrease of 7.4 [1]. - North China coal - fired glass cost was 919 on 2025/10/30, 921 on 2025/11/5, and 928.4 on 2025/11/6, a weekly increase of 9.5 and a daily increase of 7.4 [1]. Spot and Sales - Shahe factory's glass sales have improved recently. The low - price of Shahe traders' 5mm large - plate glass is around 1121, and the shipment is average. The shipment of spot - futures is also average [1]. - In Hubei, the factory price has risen to around 1100, the factory's transaction has weakened compared to the previous period, but the overall situation is okay. The mid - stream spot - futures in Hubei are at parity, and the transaction is average [1]. - The glass sales rate in Shahe is 132, in Hubei is 106, in East China is 13, and in South China is 100 [1]. Group 2: Soda Ash Price and Contract Information - The price of heavy soda ash in various regions has changed. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1180 on 2025/10/30, 1140 on 2025/11/5, and 1160 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 20 and a daily increase of 20 [1]. - SA05 contract price was 1324 on 2025/10/30, 1282 on 2025/11/5, and 1293 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 31 and a daily increase of 11 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit was - 246.7 on 2025/10/30, - 305.2 on 2025/11/5, and - 290.9 on 2025/11/6, a weekly decrease of 44.2 and a daily increase of 14.3 [1]. - North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1396.7 on 2025/10/30, 1415.2 on 2025/11/5, and 1420.9 on 2025/11/6, a weekly increase of 24.2 and a daily increase of 5.7 [1]. Spot and Industry - The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses is around 1130, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1160 [1]. - The overall inventory of the mid - and upstream of the soda ash industry remains flat [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From October 28, 2025, to November 4, 2025, the prices of 5mm glass in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm glass from Shahe Anquan increased from 1113.0 to 1121.0 and then remained stable, with a weekly increase of 8.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1263.0 to 1239.0, a weekly decrease of 24.0; the FG01 contract price decreased from 1113.0 to 1105.0, a weekly decrease of 8.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased from 182.9 to 196.0, a weekly increase of 13.0; the profit of North China natural - gas glass increased from - 244.9 to - 225.4, a weekly increase of 19.5 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe factory's glass sales have recently improved, with Shahe traders' low - price products around 1113 and good shipments. In Hubei, the factory price is around 1040, and factory transactions are good. The mid - stream spot - futures trading in Hubei is at par, with fair transactions. The glass sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 165, 138, 112, and 110 respectively [1]. 纯碱 (Soda Ash) - **Price Changes**: From October 28, 2025, to November 4, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1190.0 to 1140.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1331.0 to 1280.0, a weekly decrease of 51.0; the SA01 contract price decreased from 1239.0 to 1189.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process decreased from - 236.7 to - 298.2, a weekly decrease of 61.4; the profit of North China combined - soda process decreased from - 252.1 to - 311.5, a weekly decrease of 59.4 [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse is around 1110, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1140. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry has slightly decreased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations in November 2025, with the 01 contract likely to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after the premium is reversed. In the long - term, the cost support of the glass industry will gradually strengthen [3][63]. - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a risk of capacity clearance. The price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic due to the expected new capacity release [4][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 2025 November Strategy Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 October Review - In October, glass supply was stable, demand was weak, and the speculative demand in the middle - stream turned into speculative supply. The upstream inventory increased rapidly, and the prices in the main producing areas dropped. By the end of the month, the spot price stabilized at a low level [11]. - The FG01 - 05 spread continued the reverse - spread trend, corresponding to the weak reality and the market's expectation of environmental protection and capacity - restriction policies [11]. - In terms of supply, the daily melting capacity was stable in October, with 1 line ignited and no cold - repair. The production cost increased slightly, and the profit situation deteriorated [14]. - On the demand side, the deep - processing orders decreased, and the mid - and downstream inventory decreased. The real - estate data was poor, white - goods production decreased year - on - year, and automobile production maintained a high growth rate [20][22]. 3.1.2 Glass 2025 November Outlook - **Demand**: Affected by the real - estate cycle, glass demand is expected to remain weak. In November, the rigid demand may be weak and stable seasonally. Attention should be paid to whether the middle - stream replenishes inventory [50]. - **Supply**: In November, the ignition and cold - repair of production lines are expected to be relatively balanced. The supply may be affected by cold - repair and policy implementation, but the medium - term positive impact is limited [55]. - **Cost**: In October, the increase in fuel prices raised the production cost of the glass industry. The cost support for prices will gradually strengthen [60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the glass supply - demand pattern is expected to remain weak year - on - year, and the upstream inventory is expected to be worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year. - The valuation is driven by supply - side factors and potential mid - and downstream inventory replenishment. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities. The 01 - 05 spread has limited room to widen [63]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Strategy Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 October Review - In October, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash remained unchanged. The spot price decreased slightly after the National Day, and the production cost increased due to the rise in coal prices. The SA01 contract oscillated in the range of 1200 - 1275 yuan/ton [70]. - In terms of supply, the production of soda ash remained high, but the alkali plant's initiative to reduce the load increased. The cost increased, and the industry's loss expanded [79]. - On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry was stable, and the demand for light soda ash was supported. The net export of soda ash in September remained at a relatively high level [82][86]. - In terms of inventory, the upstream inventory increased seasonally at the beginning of the month and then changed little under the drive of downstream low - price replenishment [89]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Outlook - **Supply**: The capacity clearance of the soda ash industry is expected to continue in November, but the mid - term price is still under pressure due to the expected release of 2.8 million tons of new capacity from Yuangxing Phase II [95]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand for light soda ash is supported, and the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry is expected to be stable [98][99]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the soda ash supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The price is affected by the progress of Yuangxing Phase II's production. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic. - The current price of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. The 01 - 05 spread lacks fundamental drivers and is more affected by macro factors [102].