然橡胶产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -140 | વર્ત | -185 | -411.11% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 非标价差 | -40 | -રેર | 15 | 27.27% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.65 | 46.20 | 0.45 | 0.97% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水： 国际市场: FOB中间价 | 56.50 | 56.25 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/11 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/3 | | 2025/6/9 | | 2025/6/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/9 | | 2025/6/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | -8.0 | FG09合约 | 954.0 | 1006.0 | 995.0 | 41.0 | -11.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1096.0 | 1109.0 | 1100.0 | 4.0 | -9.0 | FG01合约 | 1014.0 | 1066.0 | 1054.0 | 40.0 | -12.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided reports. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate decreased by 60.0, while the price of Shaguo Great Wall 5mm large - plate increased by 13.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price increased from 954.0 on June 3 to 1006.0 on June 9, and FG01 contract price increased from 1014.0 to 1066.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 22.4 from June 3 to June 9, and the profit of North China natural gas glass increased by 22.0 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shaguo traders' glass price was around 1126 with average trading volume, and the transaction of Hubei's factory low - price glass was good [1]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: The production - sales ratio in Shaguo was 97, in Hubei was 95, in East China was 93, and in South China was 100 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, 2025, the price of Shaguo heavy soda ash increased by 10.0, and the price of North China light soda ash increased by 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price increased from 1221.0 on June 3 to 1235.0 on June 9, and SA01 contract price increased from 1175.0 to 1193.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 0.6, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 14.7 [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1210, and the inventory in factory warehouses increased [1].

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 低位价格弹性大，市场情绪易波动 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-09 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.68万吨，行业开工率为75.68%，比29日-0.34个百分点；产能利用率为78.14%，比29日-0.47个百分 | | | | | | 点。本周2条产线放水，1条产线点火，但点火产线暂无玻璃产出，整体来看供应量呈现下降趋势。下周1条产线存在冷修预期，2条产线计划点 | | | | | | 火，产量持稳为主。 | | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求或边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/6/9 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1134.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 982.0 | 963.0 | 997.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1126.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | FG01合约 | 1043.0 | 1018.0 | 1054.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1121.0 | 8.0 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 第三、轻重碱价差偏低、今年出口较好、库存集中度较高等因素目前只能认为是潜在支撑。需要有玻璃好转带动纯碱好转 因素支撑，潜在利多因素才能发酵。 玻璃观点：短线反弹 中期震荡市 第一，短期估值偏低因素导致价格在低位不稳定，价格和持仓都大幅变化，反应的是市场参与方的一种心态： 未来或下降空间有限。在现货端近期成交也有好转，当然未来梅雨季节可能会有短暂影响。就中期而言需要 注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限， 长期看需要注意09 ...

Report 1: Natural Rubber Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In the context of expected increase in supply and weakening demand, it is predicted that the subsequent rubber price will show a weakening and fluctuating trend. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the performance at the 13,000 level, as well as the raw material volume in the producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,350 yuan/ton on June 3 to 13,400 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.37% [1]. - The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased from - 100 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 255 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 155.00% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 810 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 832 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 3.09% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased from 149.2 ten - tons to 105.7 ten - tons, a decrease of 43.5 ten - tons or 29.16% [1]. - In April, China's natural rubber production increased from 15.8 ten - tons to 58.1 ten - tons, an increase of 42.3 ten - tons [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased from 614,189 tons on the previous day to 614,584 tons, an increase of 385 tons or 0.06% [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased from 43,544 tons to 17,641 tons, a decrease of 25,903 tons or 59.49% [1]. Report 2: Glass and Soda Ash Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Glass: It will continue to be under pressure, fluctuate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market is average, the market sentiment is still pessimistic. In the short - term, during the rainy season, the glass price may stop falling. For the 09 contract, a long - short spread trade between the 7th and 9th contracts can be considered, and short - term short - selling operations on the far - month contracts during rebounds are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The central China glass price decreased from 1,110 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 3.60% [2]. - The basis of the glass 2505 contract decreased from 91 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 31.87% [2]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The soda ash 2509 contract price increased from 1,185 yuan/ton to 1,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton or 3.28% [2]. - The basis of the 05 contract decreased from 197 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 13.97% [2]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output increased from 67.77 tons to 68.50 tons, an increase of 0.73 tons or 1.08% [2]. - Float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.67 tons to 15.77 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.64% [2]. Inventory - Soda ash 2505 contract inventory increased from 1,221 tons to 1,253 tons, an increase of 32 tons or 2.62% [2]. - Glass factory inventory decreased from 6,776.90 ten - thousand standard boxes to 6,776.20 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decrease of 0.7 ten - thousand standard boxes [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to high supply and high warehouse receipts in the fundamentals. Although demand may recover to some extent, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. However, rising raw material prices can strengthen cost support, and concentrated short - position closing may lead to a price increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon decreased from 8,200 yuan/ton on June 3 to 8,150 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.61% [3]. - The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 890 yuan/ton on June 3 to 980 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 10.11% [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2506 - 2507 spread decreased from 10 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 260 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton or 2700.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 tons to 30.08 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons or 12.10% [3]. - In April, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production decreased from 21.08 tons to 16.75 tons, a decrease of 4.33 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased from 18.74 tons to 19.01 tons, an increase of 0.27 tons or 1.44% [3]. - Social inventory increased from 58.20 tons to 58.90 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 1.20% [3]. Report 4: Polysilicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Currently, there is an expectation of supply - side contraction in the polysilicon industry. Attention should be paid to the support at the 33,000 - 34,000 range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of single - crystal PERC battery slices (182mm) decreased from 0.285 yuan/piece on June 3 to 0.275 yuan/piece on June 4, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece or 3.51% [4]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased from 2,140 yuan/ton on June 3 to 1,445 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton or 32.48% [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract price increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 895 yuan/ton or 2.02% [4]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased from 1,940 yuan/ton on June 3 to 2,935 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 51.29% [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased from 13.3 GW to 13.4 GW, an increase of 0.1 GW or 0.75% [4]. - In May, polysilicon production increased from 9.54 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons or 0.73% [4]. Inventory Change - Polysilicon inventory increased from 26.00 tons to 27.00 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons or 3.85% [4]. - Silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.95 GW to 18.57 GW, a decrease of 0.38 GW or 2.01% [4].

现货：沙河贸易商价格1105左右，成交一般，期现报价1140-1160，成交弱；湖北省内工厂低价1010左右，成交尚可；期现930-1000，成交一 般； 产销：沙河91，湖北116，华东97，华南112 | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/28 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/5/28 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 1260.0 | 1240.0 | 1260.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | SA05合 约 | 1260.0 | 1221.0 | 1253.0 | -7.0 | 32.0 | | 华中重碱 1240.0 | 1200.0 | 1225.0 | -15.0 | 25.0 | SA01合约 | 1207.0 | 1175.0 | 1216.0 | 9.0 | 41.0 | | 华南重碱 1570.0 | 1 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-04 上建议逢高空。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 游深加工订单不稳定，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需 免责声明 求也面临库存压力。当下期货已经跌破利润支撑，下方历史底部在854。本周玻璃基差已经来到一倍标准差 之上，预计基差回归交易可能出现。今日玻璃基差回归开始出现，短期反弹后，考虑继续高空为主，操作 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1225 | 环比 数据指标 40 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 988 | 环比 34 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1104 1121 1096 1010 1014 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 07合约 09合约 11合约 01合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(6/3） 昨日(5/30） 一周前(5/27） 一月前(5/6） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400 500 玻璃厂库：十三省库存 2018 ...