Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up significantly due to the long holiday. The supply-demand pattern remains bearish, and it is advisable to continue the short-selling strategy during rebounds [1]. - Glass production and sales are sluggish, and the market price continues to be weak. The current trading reflects the logic of a disappointing peak season and fundamental oversupply. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [1]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase overseas, with raw material prices falling and weak cost support. The demand is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main producing areas [4]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near-month 11 contract has insufficient willingness of long positions to take delivery, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with supply pressure increasing and prices potentially under pressure. However, if the spot is firm, there is strong support below. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained stable or decreased slightly, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts falling by 1.02% and 0.59% respectively [1]. - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remained stable, while the price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%. The 2505 and 2509 contracts fell by 0.15% and 0.38% respectively [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37% [1]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16% [1]. Inventory - Glass: The factory inventory was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 3.74%, and the delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area: -0.09%, an increase of 0.09% [1]. - Construction area: 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43% [1]. - Completion area: -0.22%, a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - Sales area: -6.55%, a decrease of 6.50% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of most varieties increased slightly, with the basis of Yunnan state-owned whole milk rubber decreasing by 8.40% [4]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 50.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - Production: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, while China's production increased [4]. - Tire Production and Exports: The domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and the export volume decreased by 5.46% [4]. - Import Volume: The import volume of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [4]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.68% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 contract of logs increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The number of expected arriving ships from New Zealand increased by 6, and the arrival volume increased by 200,500 cubic meters [6]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume decreased by 83,000 cubic meters [6]. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis decreased [7]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts showed different trends, with the 2510 - 2511 spread increasing by 400.00% [7]. Fundamental Data - Production: The national industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, with significant increases in Xinjiang and Yunnan [7]. -开工率: The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, with significant increases in Xinjiang [7]. Inventory Changes - The factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, and the social inventory increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of most varieties remained stable, and the basis of N - type silicon decreased by 31.70% [8]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract increased by 1.75%, and the spreads between different contracts showed different trends [8]. Fundamental Data - Production: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, while the monthly production of silicon wafers increased [8]. - Import and Export: The import volume of polysilicon decreased, and the export volume increased [8]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [8].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月16日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1220 | 1230 | -10 | -0.81% | | | 华东报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1267 | 1280 | -13 | -1.02% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1351 | 1359 | -8 | -0.59% | | | 05基左 | -47 | -20 | 3 | 6.00% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 流改 | 张跃帽 | 单位 | ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/9 2025/10/14 2025/10/15 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/9 2025/10/14 2025/10/15 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1170.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | -10.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1344.0 | 1321.0 | 1319.0 | -25.0 | -2.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1160.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1250.0 | 1234.0 | 1232.0 | -18.0 | -2.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1409.0 | 1389.0 | 1384.0 | -25.0 | -5.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction lies in the policy and cost - increase expectations for the far - month contracts, which cannot be falsified for now, while the near - term reality is mediocre with weak demand and poor high - frequency production and sales. The ability of the middle - stream to destock during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - The cost of glass and soda ash still has an upward expectation, affecting far - month pricing. Policy expectations cannot be completely ruled out, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded. However, the high inventories in the upstream and middle - stream of glass and soda ash, doubts about downstream acceptance, and potential production increases pose risks [2] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November, and the impact of the implementation time and production line shutdown needs further tracking. Glass production and sales are average, upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and 2 - 3 production lines may be ignited or restarted this month, with daily melting likely to rise slightly [3] - Glass upstream and middle - stream inventories are at a high level, and weak real - world demand restricts price increases. The industry is waiting for further clear policy instructions [3] - On October 15, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 1.02%, 0.59%, and 0.79% respectively [3] - The monthly price range prediction for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 30.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 81.0% [1] Soda Ash - Upstream soda ash plants have started to accumulate inventory, and the sustainability needs attention. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues [3] - The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, with inventory reduced to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash has stabilized, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus [3] - In August, soda ash exports exceeded 200,000 tons, better than expected, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent. High upstream and middle - stream inventories limit the price of soda ash, but the cost provides support at the bottom [3] - On October 15, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 0.15%, 0.36%, and 0.16% respectively [5] - The monthly price range prediction for soda ash is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.20% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Glass Summary Price and Spread - From Oct 9 to Oct 14, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions decreased, e.g., the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan dropped from 1241.0 to 1181.0, a weekly decrease of 60.0 and a daily decrease of 17.0 [2]. - FG01 and FG05 contract prices also declined during the same period, with FG01 dropping from 1218.0 to 1138.0 (weekly - 80.0, daily - 41.0) and FG05 from 1338.0 to 1280.0 (weekly - 58.0, daily - 33.0) [2]. - The FG 1 - 5 spread widened from - 120.0 to - 142.0, a weekly change of - 22.0 and a daily change of - 8.0 [2]. Profit and Basis - Profits of different production methods and regions varied. For example, North China coal - fired profit decreased from 302.3 to 265.1 (weekly - 37.2, daily - 7.0), and 01FG盘面 natural gas profit dropped from - 149.8 to - 226.4 (weekly - 76.6, daily - 38.3) [2]. - The 01 Hebei basis changed from - 24.0 to 26.0 (weekly 50.0, daily 32.0), and the 01 Hubei basis changed from - 68.0 to - 28.0 (weekly 40.0, daily 1.0) [2]. Production and Sales - Shahe factory glass production and sales were weak, but the sales of Shahe traders at low - price levels (around 1173) improved slightly. In Hubei, factory transactions weakened [2]. - The production - sales ratios were 43 in Shahe, 62 in Hubei, 95 in East China, and 86 in South China [2]. Soda Ash Summary Price and Spread - From Oct 9 to Oct 14, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1170.0 to 1180.0 (weekly - 10.0, daily - 20.0), while that in Central China increased from 1160.0 to 1190.0 (weekly 10.0, daily - 20.0) [2]. - SA01, SA05, and SA09 contract prices all declined, with SA01 dropping from 1250.0 to 1234.0 (weekly - 16.0, daily - 13.0), SA05 from 1344.0 to 1321.0 (weekly - 23.0, daily - 15.0), and SA09 from 1409.0 to 1389.0 (weekly - 20.0, daily - 17.0) [2]. - The SA01 - SA05 spread changed from - 94.0 to - 87.0, a weekly change of 7.0 and a daily change of 2.0 [2]. Profit and Basis - Profits of different production methods in North China decreased. North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 207.6 to - 220.9 (weekly - 13.4, daily - 23.8), and North China combined - soda profit decreased from - 231.4 to - 242.3 (weekly - 11.0, daily - 23.1) [2]. - The SA01 Shahe basis changed from - 80.0 to - 74.0 (weekly 6.0, daily - 7.0) [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1140, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1170 [2]. - Factory inventories of soda ash were accumulating [2].

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Industrial silicon supply increased in October, with a larger supply increase and a risk of inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. There are no effective regulatory measures to reduce supply for now, and it is expected that production will decline in November when some enterprises in Southwest China reduce production during the dry - season. However, considering the possible increase in raw material costs and the rise in electricity prices in November, the price center is expected to move up. Overall, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to around 8000 yuan/ton, buying on dips can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 13 compared to October 10. The basis of these types of industrial silicon decreased, with the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreasing by 15.69%, SI4210 by 55.81%, and Xinjiang 99 silicon by 12.44% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 66.67%, 2511 - 2512 by 6.49%, 2512 - 2601 by 30.00%, 2602 - 2603 by 250.00%, while the spread between 2601 - 2602 decreased [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, with Xinjiang increasing by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons, Yunnan by 2.41% to 5.95 million tons, and Sichuan decreasing by 1.49% to 5.29 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports increased by 3.56% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.07%, Yunnan by 7.69%, Sichuan by 2.75%. Social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.50 million tons, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1.14%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.30% [1]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In October, polysilicon faces increased supply pressure, with production increasing while downstream production scheduling has not increased synchronously, so there is a pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the futures price is at a discount, and the pressure of warehouse receipts has decreased. However, if the inventory pressure persists, the pressure of warehouse receipts may increase in the future. The demand side has not shown significant improvement. Attention can be paid to the changes in export tax - rebate policies and the increase in fourth - quarter installations. Overall, polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. As supply pressure increases, prices may be under pressure, but if the spot price is firm, there will still be strong support below. Downstream enterprises can pay attention to the opportunity of purchasing on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 0.38% to 52750 yuan/ton, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 11.85%. The prices of some other products remained unchanged [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "consecutive one - consecutive two" increasing by 14.65%, and the spreads between some other contracts increasing by 400.00% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 6.89% to 12.83 GM, and polysilicon production decreased by 0.32% to 3.10 million tons. - Monthly: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons, imports decreased by 14.02%, exports increased by 40.12%, and net exports increased by 105.68%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37% to 59.05 GM, imports increased by 74.18%, exports increased by 43.95%, and net exports increased by 41.88%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.19% to 24.00 million tons, silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.39% to 16.78 GM, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 2.95% to 7900 lots [2]. Report on Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View On the supply side, there has been rainfall in overseas production areas, and raw material prices have been firm. However, as the rainfall is expected to improve, the supply is expected to increase, and raw material prices may weaken. On the demand side, before the "National Day" holiday, the domestic tire market was stable. The trading of semi - steel tires was dull, and the social inventory was sufficient with slow consumption. The trading of all - steel tires was average, and there was no obvious pre - holiday stocking. Affected by the US tariff policy on Friday night, commodity prices were generally weak, but the macro - sentiment recovered later, and the rubber price on Monday increased slightly compared to Friday night. Attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak production season in the main production areas. If the raw material supply increases smoothly, the price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to be around 15500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex decreased by 2.40%, the full - latex basis decreased by 3.76%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.03%, and the non - standard price difference increased by 13.27%. The price of cup rubber increased by 1.58%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.56% [4]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 9 - 1 increased by 250.00%, and the spread between 1 - 5 decreased by 62.50% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, China's production increased by 12.20%, and India's production increased by 11.11%. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 27.07%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 21.76%. Domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, tire exports decreased by 5.46%, natural rubber imports increased by 9.68%, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.42% [4]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.01%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1.68%. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in general trade increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Soda ash: It is trending weakly, with inventory accumulating significantly during the long holiday. The mid - stream delivery inventory also increased. The market is affected by the news and macro - factors, and the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium term, the downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds can be continued. - Glass: The production and sales are sluggish, and the market quotation is still weak. The market is trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental oversupply. The mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the medium and long term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to eliminate excess capacity. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, attention should be paid to the spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - **Glass**: The prices in East China decreased by 1.49%, the prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the 05 - contract basis increased by 20.19%. - **Soda ash**: The price in the Northwest decreased by 5.00%, the price of the 2505 contract increased by 0.30%, and the 05 - contract basis decreased by 12.50% [7]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 3.37%, the daily melting volume of float glass increased by 1.16%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.74%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 4.05% [7]. Real - estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [7]. Report on Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The fundamentals of logs have not changed significantly, and there is no obvious driving force in supply and demand. The near - month contracts fell sharply due to the news that the exchange was discussing the delivery - location premium and discount, while the far - month contracts were relatively strong. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the market. The current market price is near the import cost and lower than the delivery cost. It is recommended to allocate more on the 01 - contract below the import cost [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log - futures contract decreased by 18 yuan to 803 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong at 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu at 780 yuan/cubic meter [8]. Supply - The national coniferous log inventory as of October 10 was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log - arriving ships this week is 13, an increase of 6 from the previous week, and the arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from the previous week [8]. Demand - As of October 10, the daily log outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 830,000 cubic meters from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Glass Section Summary Price Changes - The price of 5mm large glass plates in Shahe area decreased, with Shahe Safety's 5mm large plate dropping from 1241.0 on October 9th to 1198.0 on October 13th, a weekly decrease of 43.0 [2]. - FG05 contract price decreased from 1338.0 to 1313.0, a weekly decrease of 25.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 1218.0 to 1179.0, a weekly decrease of 39.0 [2]. Production and Sales - Shahe factory's glass production and sales were weak, but the low - price sales of Shahe traders improved slightly, with a sales rate of 63. Hubei's production and sales rate was 69, East China's was 84, and South China's was 96 [2]. Profit and Cost - North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 302.3 to 272.1, a weekly decrease of 30.2; North China's coal - fired cost increased from 891.7 to 900.9, a weekly increase of 9.2 [2]. - South China's natural gas glass profit remained at - 188.1, while North China's natural gas glass profit decreased from - 150.7 to - 175.9, a weekly decrease of 25.2 [2]. Soda Ash Section Summary Price Changes - The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1180.0 on October 9th to 1160.0 on October 13th, a weekly decrease of 20.0; SA05 contract price decreased from 1344.0 to 1336.0, a weekly decrease of 8.0 [2]. - SA01 contract price decreased from 1250.0 to 1247.0, a weekly decrease of 3.0; SA09 contract price decreased from 1409.0 to 1406.0, a weekly decrease of 3.0 [2]. Profit and Cost - North China's ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 211.4 to - 197.1, a weekly increase of 14.3; North China's combined - soda process profit increased from - 234.5 to - 219.2, a weekly increase of 15.3 [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash factory inventories are accumulating [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a dull and stable trend, with relatively firm prices. The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The domestic soda ash output was 77.08 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.66 thousand tons, a decline of 0.85%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The supply was affected by individual enterprise short - stops, and the demand was weakly stable, with good spot - futures transactions after the holiday [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of October 9, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The supply of soda ash this week is expected to remain at a high level, with an overall operating rate of about 88 + %. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the soda - ammonia method was - 76.50 yuan/ton, and that by the ammonia - soda method was - 29.25 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the photovoltaic glass industry, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of sample enterprises rose to 114.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.33%, and the average inventory days were 22.67 days, an increase of 8.17 days compared with September 25. In the float glass industry, as of October 9, the average operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged week - on - week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase. The output is expected to run steadily [16]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The inventory of light soda ash was 73.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.24 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 92.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75 million tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of October 10, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 956,961, an increase of 48,812, and the short positions were 1,241,366, an increase of 112,518. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月13日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1230 | 1240 | -10 | -0.81% | | | 华东报价 | 1340 | 1340 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | TC/HP | | 玻璃2505 | 1334 | 1338 | -4 | -0.30% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1407 | 1407 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 05 # 7 | -104 | -d8 | -6 | -6.12% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market. Although the supply side has slightly contracted, it has failed to effectively reverse the situation of loose supply and demand. The market is expected to lack upward momentum, and the market will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [9][40]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies in the single - side trading, conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and shorting on soda ash, and considering a bear spread option combination [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons or 0.85% from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 342,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 428,700 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons [7][10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09% (unchanged), the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points, and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 90.16%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday (September 29). Light soda ash inventory was 739,100 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 920,700 tons, an increase of 17,500 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 9, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 710,900 tons, a decrease of 14.25% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 92.23%, a decrease of 14.41 percentage points [18]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of raw salt and coke was stable, and the soda ash price remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated at a low level [21]. - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The cost increased, while the soda ash price was stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of October 9, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 3rd. The weekly production of national float glass was 1.1289 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [28]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous period [29]. 3. Spot Market Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the report, only the names of relevant price trend charts are provided, including domestic light soda ash price trend, domestic heavy soda ash price trend, and soda ash basis trend [34][36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side contracted slightly, but weak demand was the core contradiction. After the National Day holiday, enterprise inventory increased significantly, especially the inventory pressure of light soda ash increased, indicating weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. - The demand side was weak, with downstream enterprises mainly restocking as needed. New orders were average, resulting in a significant decline in the shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash enterprises this week. The industry's profit situation was still poor, and enterprises lacked the motivation to raise prices. - In the short term, high inventory and weak demand will continue to suppress the market. The market is expected to lack upward momentum and will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [40].