证券日报网讯 9月29日，铜陵有色发布公告称，2025年9月26日，公司第十届第二十五次董事会审议通 过了《公司关于聘任总经理的议案》。公司董事会同意聘任文燕先生为公司总经理，任期自本次董事会 审议通过之日起至第十届董事会届满之日止。 （编辑 任世碧） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and copper prices are consolidating at a high level. Supply - side disturbances have increased, and the center of copper prices has shifted upward. The copper smelting industry's "anti - involution" is expected to unfold, with bullish sentiment fermenting. Although downstream demand for high prices is insufficient and demand is marginally weakening, it will not collapse. The Grasberg accident has strengthened the bullish trend, and prices are expected to continue to be strong [3][4][6] - The global copper market is facing a situation where supply is difficult to ease and demand is showing a differentiated trend. The growth rate of supply and demand has declined compared to last year. It is expected that the global copper market will have a certain amount of surplus in 2025 [123][131] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Copper Market Overview (1) Market Review - In September, copper prices broke through the pressure level of $10,160/ton. On September 8, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 79,400 yuan/ton, or LME copper at $9,860/ton. On September 26, it reached a maximum of 83,090 yuan/ton, or LME copper at $10,485/ton. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences among policymakers regarding further rate cuts, and the dovish stance was less than expected. The Grasberg accident led to a 35% decline in the 2026 output forecast, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The downstream demand for high - priced copper was insufficient, and the destocking speed was slow [11] (2) Market Outlook - In terms of supply, it is expected that the global copper concentrate increment in 2025 will be adjusted down to 200,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.87%. The growth rate of refined copper production is expected to be 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. In terms of demand, the global consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%, with China's consumption growth rate falling from 4.5% to 3.8% and overseas demand growth rate rising from 1.8% to 2.7%. In terms of price, the long - term preventive interest rate cuts in the US are expected to drive up inflation, and copper prices are expected to mainly operate in the range of 81,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [12] (3) Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Purchase on dips. Arbitrage: Hold long - short positions across markets. Options: Wait and see [7] 2. Increasing Disturbances in Copper Mines, Difficult to Ease the Tight Supply Situation (1) Sharp Decline in the Increment of Copper Concentrate Supply - It is expected that the global copper concentrate increment in 2025 will be about 200,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.87%, lower than the increment of 665,500 tons in 2024. Many major mining companies have reduced their production plans, such as Freeport, Ivanhoe, Teck, etc., with a total reduction of 239,000 tons. However, the output of Kazakhmys is expected to increase from 520,000 tons to 600,000 tons [28][29] (2) Mismatch in Global Scrap Copper Supply, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports reached 179,400 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import from January to August was 1.5148 million physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The import from the US has decreased, but it is imported through countries like Japan and Thailand. The EU is facing a reduction in scrap supply, and it is expected that the import of scrap copper from EU countries will decrease in the future [41] (3) Accelerated Transmission of Insufficient Raw Material Supply to the Smelting End - It is expected that the global refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons in 2025, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters are facing losses and increasing production cuts, such as Pasar, Altonorte, etc. In China, in August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic raw material supply is supplemented by the inflow of overseas long - term contracts and increased scrap copper procurement [48][50] 3. Consumption Analysis (1) Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: From January to August, the national new commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the decline in construction completion will continue to drag down copper consumption [60] - **Power Grid and Power Supply Projects**: From January to July, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The investment in power supply projects increased by 3.4%. In August, the operating rate of wire and cable improved month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The export of wire and cable maintained growth, but the export to the US decreased due to tariff increases [68][70] - **Household Air - Conditioners**: From January to August, the cumulative sales of household air - conditioners were 152.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%. In August, the total sales were 13.023 million units, a slight year - on - year decline. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to drop to 5%, and the copper consumption will increase from 1.57 million tons to 1.65 million tons [78][79] - **Automobiles**: In August, automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. However, due to the structural differentiation of the automobile market and the impact of subsidy policies, the growth rate of automobile consumption is expected to gradually slow down [87] (2) The Marginal Weakening of the Driving Force of New Energy on Global Consumption - **New Energy Vehicles**: From January to July 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 24.57% year - on - year. China led the market, with production and sales from January to August increasing by 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The global new energy vehicle copper consumption is expected to increase from 1.2208 million tons in 2024 to 1.3524 million tons in 2025 [93][94] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: From January to July 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 80.73% year - on - year, and the new wind power installed capacity increased by 79.44% year - on - year. The global new wind power installed capacity is expected to increase to 138GW in 2025. The contribution of wind and solar power to global consumption growth is declining [105][117] (3) Consumption Summary - It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%, lower than 3.76% last year. China's consumption growth rate will drop from 4.5% to 3.8%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year [123] 4. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the supply gap of copper concentrate is expected to widen to 943,000 tons, and the refined copper surplus is expected to be 377,000 tons, concentrated in the US. In China, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline significantly from October to December [131]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. announced a profit distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, with no bonus shares or capital reserve fund transfers to increase share capital, and the remaining undistributed profits will be carried forward to the next period [1] Summary by Categories - **Profit Distribution Plan** - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares to shareholders [1] - No bonus shares will be issued, and there will be no transfer of capital reserve to increase share capital [1] - Remaining undistributed profits will be carried forward to the next period [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is rated at 39 points, categorizing it as "cold," which suggests a cautious investment environment [5][8] - Key themes identified for investment opportunities include Artificial Intelligence, Non-ferrous Metals, and Energy Storage [5] Theme Tracking Artificial Intelligence - Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, positioning large models as the next generation operating system and AI cloud as the next computing platform [5] - Related stocks include Industrial Fulian (601138) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [5] Non-ferrous Metals - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has delayed its reopening to mid-2026 due to landslides, raising concerns over copper supply and driving up international copper prices [5] - The domestic copper smelting industry is experiencing intense competition, leading to low processing fees and calls for self-discipline in production cuts, reinforcing supply contraction expectations [5] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [5] Energy Storage - The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment [5] - Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%, shifting investment from "mandatory storage" to "proactive profit" [5] - Overseas orders surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] Market Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow, with Wanxiang Qianchao (000559.SZ) leading at approximately 56.98 million yuan [9] - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) at about 59.69 million yuan [11] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) with a net outflow of approximately -248.21 million yuan [19] Industry Insights - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with significant net outflows observed in sectors such as Electronics and Medical Biology, indicating investor caution in these areas [19][16] - Conversely, the Communication and Media sectors show some resilience with positive net buy figures, suggesting selective investment opportunities [17]

Group 1 - Zhongyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. focuses on major strategic opportunities such as the Belt and Road Initiative and carbon neutrality goals, committing to an innovative, green, low-carbon, and high-quality development path [1][2] - The company has established a full industrial chain service capability in wastewater treatment, sludge treatment, and reclaimed water utilization, aiming for a development pattern that is rooted in Henan, covers the whole country, and extends to the world [1] - Zhongyuan Environmental actively responds to the Belt and Road Initiative by promoting advanced technologies and "one-stop" environmental service models in water treatment, solid waste disposal, and watershed management, with operations in countries like Thailand, Egypt, and the UAE [1][2] Group 2 - The company integrates digital technology with ecological protection, exploring areas such as smart water management and low-carbon parks, thereby supporting high-quality development in the ecological and environmental industry [2] - Zhongyuan Environmental emphasizes international cooperation, having engaged in technical exchanges with global partners like Veolia Environment Group, to strengthen international collaboration for a greener future [2] Group 3 - China National Nuclear Corporation's subsidiary, China Tongru, focuses on nuclear technology applications in medicine and industry, establishing a "6+N" industrial system that covers key areas such as nuclear medicine and radiation applications [3][4] - The company has developed a comprehensive solution for radioactive drugs and has built a delivery system that supplies nearly 60% of the national demand, while also maintaining a leading position in the domestic radiation source industry [3] Group 4 - China Tongru has engaged in extensive international cooperation with over 30 countries, exporting products to more than 80 nations, thereby enhancing its global presence [4] Group 5 - Yunnan Energy Investment Group leverages green energy to contribute to regional energy security and sustainable development [5][6] - The company has initiated several projects in Laos and Myanmar, including solar power and hydropower projects, significantly improving local energy supply and stability [6] Group 6 - China Copper actively responds to the Belt and Road Initiative, deepening international cooperation in resource development and supply chain security, with significant investments in Peru and Africa [8][9] - The company has established stable procurement channels with over 20 Belt and Road countries, enhancing resource security and creating numerous job opportunities [9] Group 7 - The Cuba Latin America News Agency emphasizes the importance of media cooperation in combating misinformation and promoting dialogue among nations, supporting initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [10][11] Group 8 - Fudan University highlights the significance of the Belt and Road Initiative in addressing regional economic governance challenges, promoting a community of shared future and regional public goods [12][13] Group 9 - Chongqing High-tech Zone has become a hub for international cooperation and technological innovation, facilitating the export of scientific achievements and enhancing trade networks [14][15] - The zone has attracted numerous semiconductor companies and developed a comprehensive service platform for enterprises looking to expand internationally [15][16]

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月28日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：原料供应扰动增强，具备长期多配价值 资料来源： SMM，同花顺iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 2 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： ◆ 铜矿供应扰动增强，铜价快速上涨。自由港就先前报告的印尼Grasberg Block Cave矿泥石流事件状况提供最新信息，主要包含以下几个 方面：（1）如先前报告，为优先进行搜救，Grasberg矿区的采矿作业自9月8日起已暂停；（2）PTFI已开始调查事件起因，预计调查将 在2025年底前完成；（3）维修工作可能导致2025年第四季度和2026年的生产出现重大推迟，预计在2027年恢复至事件前的运营水平； （4）PTFI在2026年的产量可能较事件前预估低约35%；（5）受事件影响，P ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market status and investment prospects of the electrolytic copper foil industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price of electrolytic copper (1) reached 80,550.7 yuan per ton, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase and a 0.65% month-on-month increase [1] - This price is the highest recorded for the same period over the past five years [1]

Group 1 - The copper smelting industry in China is facing "involution" competition, leading to persistently low copper concentrate processing fees, which has become a major discussion point at the recent meeting of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association [1] - The association has reported to relevant national departments, suggesting strict control over the expansion of copper smelting capacity, with measures expected to be implemented soon [1] - The processing fee for copper concentrate, which includes smelting and refining costs, has been under pressure, with both long-term and spot prices at historical lows, significantly impacting the profitability of smelting operations [1] Group 2 - Northern Copper Industry, the largest cathode copper supplier in North China, reported a decline in copper concentrate processing fees, with spot processing fees dropping to -40 USD/ton by the end of June [2] - Major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals experienced a 33.94% year-on-year decline in net profit, marking the first drop in five years, while Northern Copper's profit growth was only 5.85%, far below previous year's growth [2] - The gross profit margin for copper products has decreased across leading companies, with margins ranging from 1.9% to 8.2%, significantly affecting overall revenue as this segment accounts for over 70% of total income [2] Group 3 - The continuous low processing fees are primarily due to tightening copper concentrate supply, with a shift from surplus to shortage expected as global mining companies reduce future production guidance [3] - China's smelting capacity has been growing at a much faster rate than raw material supply, leading to increased supply-demand conflicts, with domestic smelting capacity growth around 15% as of July [3] - The combination of reduced production guidance from major copper mines and increasing demand from emerging industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to keep copper concentrate supply tight, further lowering processing fees [3] Group 4 - Analysts noted that the tightening supply of copper ore is becoming more pronounced, with the surplus of electrolytic copper flowing to the U.S., exacerbating tensions in other regions [4] - Companies are responding to the low processing fees and raw material shortages by focusing on cost reduction and increasing the profitability of by-products [4] - Yunnan Copper reported a 24% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributing this to cost-cutting measures and increased contributions from by-products like sulfuric acid, which saw a significant rise in gross margin [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper smelting industry in China is facing significant challenges due to "involutionary" competition, leading to persistently low copper concentrate processing fees and pressure on profit margins for major companies [4][5]. Industry Overview - The third council meeting of the Copper Industry Association highlighted the severe impact of "involutionary" competition on the copper smelting sector, prompting the association to propose measures to control capacity expansion [4]. - Copper concentrate processing fees, which include smelting and refining costs, have been at historically low levels, with significant declines observed in both long-term and spot prices [5][6]. Financial Performance - Major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper reported declines in net profits due to low processing fees, with Tongling's net profit down 33.94% year-on-year to 1.441 billion yuan, marking the first decline in five years [5]. - The gross profit margins for copper products across leading firms have decreased, with margins ranging from 1.9% to 8.2%, significantly impacting overall revenue as this segment accounts for over 70% of total income [5][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in processing fees is primarily attributed to tightening copper concentrate supply, as global mining companies have reduced future production guidance, shifting the market from surplus to shortage [6][7]. - China's reliance on imported copper ore, which constitutes over 80% of the supply structure, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, especially as domestic smelting capacity has expanded rapidly [6][7]. Strategic Responses - In response to the challenging environment, leading companies are focusing on cost reduction and enhancing the profitability of by-products to mitigate the impact of low processing fees [7]. - For instance, Yunnan Copper reported a 24% increase in net profit to 1.317 billion yuan by implementing cost-cutting measures and increasing the contribution of by-products like sulfuric acid, which saw a gross margin increase of 35.41 percentage points [7].

Industry Overview - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing "involution" competition, leading to persistently low copper concentrate processing fees, which are a focus of recent discussions by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association [1] - The association has proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity to address the significant impact of this competition on the industry [1] Processing Fees and Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the processing fees for copper concentrates have continued to decline, with spot processing fees dropping to a median of -40 USD/ton by the end of June [2] - Major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper reported significant declines in net profits, with Tongling's net profit down 33.94% to 1.441 billion CNY, marking its first decline in five years [2] - The gross profit margins for copper products among leading companies have decreased, with margins ranging from 1.9% to 8.2%, significantly impacting overall revenue as this segment accounts for over 70% of total income [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in processing fees is primarily attributed to tightening copper concentrate supply, as the supply-demand relationship is crucial for determining processing fees [3] - China's copper smelting capacity has grown significantly over the past two decades, outpacing the growth of raw material supply, leading to a shift from surplus to shortage in copper concentrate supply [3] - The reliance on imported copper ore, which constitutes over 80% of the supply structure, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, especially as domestic smelting capacity continues to expand [3] Market Trends and Strategies - Analysts note that the tightening supply of copper due to production cuts at major mines is contributing to the pressure on processing fees [4] - Companies are adopting strategies to mitigate the impact of low processing fees, such as cost reduction and increasing the profitability of by-products [4] - For instance, Yunnan Copper reported a net profit increase of over 24% to 1.317 billion CNY by focusing on operational efficiency and enhancing the contribution of by-products like sulfuric acid, which saw a gross margin increase of 35.41 percentage points [4]