Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Production and consumption - side inflation rebounds, reducing the expected number of Fed rate - cuts. However, the decrease in scrap - copper - produced anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may keep the Shanghai copper price oscillating. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,950 yuan, down 430 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 51,734 lots, a decrease of 315 lots; open interest was 152,341 lots, a decline of 6,536 lots; SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,435 yuan, down 40 yuan, and inventory was 24,434 tons, an increase of 1,634 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spread**: The Shanghai copper basis was 485 yuan on August 14, 2025, an increase of 390 yuan from the previous day. There were also changes in spot premiums and discounts in different regions and spreads between different contract months [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 14, 2025, was 9,777, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants dropped by 155,850 tons. There were also changes in contract spreads [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on August 14, 2025, was 4.4975, down 0.02 from the previous day, and the total inventory increased by 915 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Government policy adjustments may cause the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply Disruptions**: There are operational disruptions in copper mines, and the Las Bambas project in Peru may be affected by the presidential election. There are also changes in the supply of electrolytic copper from South America [2]. - **Project Developments**: Multiple copper - related projects are under construction or planned, which may affect the production of electrolytic copper in August, such as the Jiangtong Hongyuan Phase II project, the Baotou Jinshan High - Purity Copper project, etc. Some overseas smelters face issues like equipment failure, supply shortages, and high costs [2]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see. For Shanghai copper, pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support level is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the pressure level is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support level is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the pressure level is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a slight premium of the spot over the futures, also neutral. The inventory situation is mixed, with a decrease in overall copper inventory on August 8 but an increase in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main players is increasing, presenting a bullish signal. Overall, due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap - copper policy is loosened, and the July PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 78505, basis is 15, showing a premium of the spot over the futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 8, copper inventory decreased by 150 to 155850 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main players have a net long position, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will fluctuate and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 and 利空**: No specific content provided for利多 and 利空, but the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Inventory - related - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].

沪铜日评20250808: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环碱,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78460 | 78280 | 78930 | 180.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 42710 | 26388 | 55888 | -13.679.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 157601 | 158574 | 171689 | -973.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 20145 | 20346 | 19973 | -201.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78500 | 78350 | 79285 | 150.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 40 | 70 | 355 | -30.00 - | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -45 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price is likely to continue its weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited. The expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 6, the price of the SHFE copper main contract slightly declined to 78,210 yuan/ton, a 0.37% drop from the previous trading day, and the LME copper price also fell to 9,634.5 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium/discount weakened across the board, with the premium of flat - copper dropping to 65 yuan/ton, a 40.91% narrowing from the previous day, and the wet - copper even turning to par. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 67.32 dollars/ton, indicating increased supply pressure in the overseas market [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest decreased by 1,316 lots to 265,284 lots, showing cautious market trading sentiment. The domestic SHFE inventory continued to accumulate to 156,125 tons, a 1.48% increase from the previous week, and the rising inventory pressure suppressed the price [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: There have been frequent short - term disturbances. The Indonesian PTGresik smelter is under maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks due to equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of production. New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, such as the 40,000 - ton copper strip project of Anhui Zhongcheng Copper Industry and the 35,000 - ton cold - rolled high - precision copper strip project of Fujian Guangmin Copper Industry, but it will take time for the capacity to be realized [3]. - **需求端**: Demand shows structural differentiation. The lithium - ion copper foil maintains high prosperity, with the July shipment volume increasing by 11.35% month - on - month, and the August operating rate is expected to rise to 78.75%. However, the traditional sectors are under pressure, with the August white - goods production schedule down 4.9% year - on - year, and the spot trading in North China is sluggish. In addition, the demand for solid - state battery anode current collectors is a long - term growth point [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventory has been continuously accumulating. On August 6, the LME inventory increased to 20,346 tons, and the SHFE inventory climbed to 156,000 tons, both reaching recent highs, indicating a marginal easing of the supply - demand contradiction [5]. c. Market Summary The copper price may continue the weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited, and the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **现货(升贴水)**: The price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 78,790 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,500 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop. The premium of premium copper decreased by 18.18% to 135 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper decreased by 40.91% to 65 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - copper decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed by 6.98% to - 63 dollars/ton [8]. - **价格**: The SHFE copper price decreased from 78,500 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,210 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop, while the LME copper price increased by 0.41% to 9,674 dollars/ton [8]. - **库存**: The LME inventory increased by 8.41% to 20,346 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.48% to 156,125 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 0.03% to 263,104 short tons [8]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory, with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [9][11][14].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper industry, discussing supply-demand dynamics, price trends, and key companies involved in copper mining and refining. Key Points and Arguments Copper Price Trends - Copper prices are expected to recover from Q4 this year to Q2 next year due to tightening supply and demand recovery, with a favorable macroeconomic environment supporting this trend [2][4][5] - The anticipated weakening of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts in the US are expected to positively impact copper prices [5][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply remains tight, with a dual weakness in both supply and demand observed in the short term [7] - Domestic copper production is expected to increase by approximately 200,000 tons, with significant contributions from companies like Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum [8][9] - The overall global copper supply increase is also projected to be around 200,000 tons [9] Company Performance - Notable companies in copper mining include Jincheng Mining, which has the largest increase this year, and Tongling Nonferrous, expected to perform well next year [3] - Key companies to watch include Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Tin, which are expected to see their valuations return to normal levels as the industry recovers [4][19] Domestic Demand Insights - Domestic cable companies are operating at about 70% capacity, significantly lower than last year, while the home appliance sector has seen a sharp decline in external demand [10] - The automotive industry continues to grow steadily, contributing positively to copper demand [10][11] - The State Grid's investment is expected to increase by over 8% in Q4, which will help stabilize copper demand [11] Inventory and Market Conditions - COMEX inventories are expected to decline slowly, while LME inventories are gradually increasing, albeit at a modest rate [6] - The overall market is not currently experiencing significant inventory pressure, but future shifts in inventory from the US to overseas markets are possible [6] Future Outlook - The first half of next year is expected to see tighter supply conditions, with demand potentially improving on a month-over-month basis [4][14] - The macroeconomic environment, including the anticipated US interest rate cuts, is expected to support copper price increases [5][15] Production Capacity and Industry Challenges - China's electrolytic copper production capacity is currently around 14.8 million tons, with no new capacities expected to be approved in the near future [16] - The industry is facing challenges, with many companies operating at a loss, leading to potential production cuts in overseas markets [17] Investment Recommendations - Companies like Tongling Nonferrous and Jincheng Mining are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their growth potential and market positioning [19] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of price recovery and demand stabilization in the coming quarters, despite current challenges in the market [2][4][11][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices due to tight copper ore supply remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down, and the demand for copper may show a trend of weakening external demand, short - term weak domestic demand, and long - term improvement. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,731 dollars/ton, up 44 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 159,866 lots, down 3,692 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures were 3,657 lots, down 4,571 lots. The LME copper inventory was 139,575 tons, down 2,175 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the SHFE warrant of cathode copper was 18,767 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,650 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 50.5 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 35 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 52.73 dollars/ton, down 3.48 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai was 54,840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of scrap copper (2 copper, 94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.56%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.16%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.51%, down 0.006%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.17, down 0.026 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut rates by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching. The negative impact of the US tariff policy is emerging, and the US economy shows multiple weak signals. Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. The central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in the first half of the year reached 44.3%. It is expected that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July will be 1.18 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the supply of new houses decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].

（文华综合） 国内铜现货升水有所回落，但仍然呈现升水状态，周初国内精铜社会库存累积，但幅度有限，目前仍维 持在较低位置。不过由于美国对进口铜关税范围不及预期，最近COMEX铜对LME铜价差已经回到平水 附近，市场仍在担忧后续非美地区铜库存的回升。 对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，受降息预期升温后市场风险偏好得到提振，而美元指数迅速走弱提振金 属市场；基本面上，海外精矿维持紧缺状态，国内库存小幅反弹，进口到港量持续增加，紧平衡格局依 旧但略有转松迹象，预计沪铜将进入反弹节奏。 沪铜夜盘高开震荡，日内延续偏强震荡姿态，收盘上涨0.46%。最近美联储降息预期抬升提振市场情 绪，铜市供需虽有转松迹象，但低库存状态仍提供支撑。 smm数据显示，7月smm中国电解铜产量环比大增3.94万吨，升幅为3.47%，同比上升14.21%。主要受新 投产产能利用率快速上升、前期生产受扰的冶炼厂供应恢复、硫酸价格较高弥补冶炼亏损等因素影响。 smm预计8月国内精铜产量仅小幅下降。由于海外冶炼成本更高，受极端低位的铜精矿加工费影响更 大，周一日本三菱材料公司表示，由于加工精炼费用（TC/RCs）下降对盈利造成压力，该公司正考虑 缩减其On ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards. As a result, there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions. They should pay attention to the support levels around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance levels around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support levels around 3,300 - 9,500 and the resistance levels around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support levels around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance levels around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper. (View score: -1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330, down 70 from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, down 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420, up 90 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 90, up 160; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 55, down 40; in North China, it remained at - 120; in East China, it was 30, down 5 [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 20, up 30; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, down 10; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 80, up 20 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5, up 75.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 139,575 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 52.73, down 3.48; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 139.23, up 3.70; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0682, down 0.07 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456, up 0.03; the total inventory was 261,180, an increase of 3,265 [2]. Industry News - **Corporate News**: Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume at its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce copper concentrate processing through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing of electronic waste, aiming to increase the utilization ratio of recycled materials and profitability. The 2025 cathode copper production forecast will be announced separately (Onahama's copper rough - smelting capacity is 230,000 tons) [2]. - **Regional News**: Peruvian informal miners have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to disagreements. The government refused to adjust the August 17 deadline and required miners to transfer explosives to a formal "powder magazine". About 20,000 miners who cannot meet the deadline will be excluded from the government's work regularization plan [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: European high - quality scrap steel export restrictions, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, negative price differences between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the closure of the scrap copper import window may lead to a decrease in domestic scrap copper production (import) in August. Many copper smelters around the world are facing production adjustments, such as the shutdown of Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines, the suspension of Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia, and the suspension of Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile. Some projects are under construction or planned to increase production, like Jiangxi Hongyuan's second - phase project and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou [3]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand [3]. Inventory Situation The inventory of electrolytic copper in domestic bonded areas has decreased compared to last week, while the domestic social inventory, LME inventory, and COMEX copper inventory have all increased [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are recommended to hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [3].