Key Points - China's commercial aerospace sector is set to enter a phase of high-frequency launches following the successful test of a reusable spacecraft on February 7, 2026, using the Long March 2F rocket [2][11] - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission aims to create a trillion-level industry by focusing on new sectors such as smart terminals, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][10] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with reserves reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026 [3] - A new national standard for prepared dishes has been proposed, prohibiting the use of preservatives and limiting shelf life to one year [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued guidelines for the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens overseas, emphasizing compliance with cross-border investment and data security regulations [7] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin levels and price limits for several gold and silver contracts, reflecting changes in market conditions [8] - The recent penalties imposed on Kuaishou Technology for failing to manage content effectively highlight the increasing regulatory scrutiny on internet platforms [12] - Ruihua Jewelry has faced significant financial difficulties, leading to the freezing of its bank accounts and a change in its stock designation to "ST Ruihua" due to liquidity issues [13] - Guotou Ruijin Fund has established a working group to address investor concerns following valuation adjustments in its silver LOF fund [14] - Rongbai Technology is facing a potential fine of 4.5 million yuan for misleading statements regarding a major contract with CATL [15] - Tian Sheng New Materials and Yahui Long have both been investigated by the CSRC for suspected violations of information disclosure regulations [16][17] - This week, there is one new stock subscription and a total of 31 companies will have their restricted shares released, amounting to a total market value of 36.29 billion yuan [18]

Investment Outlook - Investment in 2026 is expected to have the highest relative elasticity, with a potential growth rebound from a low base of -3.8% in 2025 to around 3%, indicating an elasticity of 6-7 percentage points[9] - Guangdong province plans to invest 1.05 trillion yuan in key projects for 2026, up from 1 trillion yuan in both 2025 and 2024, signaling a commitment to effective investment[10] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rates for January and February are estimated at 4.91% and 4.59% respectively, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.75% for the first two months[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for the same period is projected at 4.39%[4] Market Trends - Global asset narratives are converging, with a shift towards "non-growth" assets and a return to "old economy" sectors, as evidenced by a 2.5% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average[13] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index has dropped to an extreme fear level of -210, indicating heightened market caution[14] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver have experienced high volatility, with gold prices averaging $1,948 per ounce, down 0.68% for the week, while silver prices fell 27.38%[15] - Domestic gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 98.22 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[34] Currency and Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased to 4.22%, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by June rising to 49.2%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, closing at 97.61, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.59% against the dollar[18] Sector Performance - Consumer sectors led the A-share market, with significant gains in food and beverage, while technology and resource sectors faced pressure[19] - The overall A-share index saw a decline of 1.49%, with nearly 60% of sectors recording losses, particularly in metals and electronics[22]

前海深港现代服务业合作区一角。 2月7日，记者从深圳市互联网信息办公室获悉，2026年亚太经合组织数字经济指导组第一次全体会议日前在广州召开,中国国家互联网信息办公室率中方 代表团参加全体会议并作开幕致辞。 据悉，本次会议系2026年APEC"中国年"数字经济指导组首场活动，聚焦数字经济、人工智能等热点议题深入交流、探讨合作。会议期间，深圳参会代表 向各成员经济体介绍中方提出的"基于DDTP模式的跨境数据验证平台合作"倡议，旨在推动APEC各成员经济体开展基于该平台的相关合作，倡议受到亚 太经合组织成员经济体参会代表高度关注和积极回应。 据了解，该合作倡议是在中国国家互联网信息办公室的指导下，基于深圳市互联网信息办公室、前海管理局以及国家(深圳前海)新型互联网交换中心、微 众银行等机构跨境数据验证平台建设经验成效而形成，旨在将深圳创新成果打造为"中国方案"。其中，深圳—香港跨境数据验证平台自2024年5月上线以 来，已累计产生南北向双向验证数据2681笔。2025年11月建成的深圳—新加坡跨境数据验证平台，是中国广东与新加坡之间落地的首个数据流通数字化基 础设施。 ...

【导读】中外资机构：期待中国股市"盈利牛"，短期波动不会改变黄金、白银避险属性 【编者按】 中国基金报每月会邀请中外资金融机构的代表，分享他们对全球经济及重大事件的分析与评判。 进入2026年，地缘政治风云突变，各类资产坐上史诗级"过山车"，全球尤其是中国的经济及金融市场将 如何发展？中国基金报记者采访了以下机构专业人士。 贝莱德大中华区投资策略师 陆文杰 汇丰环球私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监 匡正 南方东英CIO 王毅 惠理集团投资组合总监 盛今 中国银河国际首席宏观策略师 成亚曼 全国两会重点关注 政策取向如何匹配中长期目标 中国基金报：全国两会即将举行，你会关注哪些热点？ 陆文杰：中国政策连续性强，方向明确，不会因两会而发生根本性转向。 在基础性周期性政策上，如财政赤字、发债额度等占GDP的比重，预计与去年大致相当，不会有太大意 外。 我们真正关注的是政策取向如何与"十五五"规划等中长期目标配合。例如，"投资于人"的具体含义是什 么？财政支出是更侧重民生保障，还是通过给中小企业减税来促进就业和收入？这些具体的结构性安排 是最值得关注的。 成亚曼：2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，政策或趋于务实，淡 ...

Macro and Financial - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, up $4.12 billion or 1.23% from December 2025. Gold reserves also rose for 15 months, totaling 74.19 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [2] - The State Council is planning to promote effective investment policies, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterated the ban on virtual currency activities, classifying them as illegal financial activities [2] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced strict regulations on the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens overseas based on domestic assets [5] - By the end of 2025, China's domestic ETF market reached approximately $860 billion, surpassing Japan to become the largest ETF market in Asia, with a net inflow of over 1.16 trillion yuan [6] - The CSRC and other departments are addressing illegal "agent rights protection" activities on social media platforms, particularly in short videos and live streaming [7] Business and Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a "1+N" policy system to foster new growth points in service consumption, with specific support policies for various sectors [13] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has implemented direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals nationwide [14] - Hainan is launching a "zero tariff" policy for daily consumer goods, with the first five duty-free stores set to open on February 11 [15] - Kuaishou has been fined 119 million yuan for hosting inappropriate content and has committed to rectifying the issues [16] - Elon Musk emphasized the importance of energy production and capacity over traditional currency in future economic models [17] - China's commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of frequent launches, following the successful test of a reusable spacecraft [18] - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about AI development, indicating a significant demand for AI infrastructure and chip products in the coming years [18]

Core Insights - Alibaba is intensifying its competition in the AI sector with a significant marketing push, including a 30 billion yuan initiative aimed at enhancing user engagement and establishing its AI application as a primary entry point for consumers [4][6][10]. Group 1: Marketing Strategy - The "Spring Festival 30 billion free meal" campaign is a major marketing effort, with a focus on high-frequency consumption scenarios such as food and entertainment [2][10]. - The campaign includes a "1 penny for milk tea" promotion, which has seen rapid user engagement, with over 1 million orders placed within three hours of launch [5][10]. - The strategy aims to create a closed-loop system for user decision-making, payment, and fulfillment through enticing offers [10][26]. Group 2: AI Application Development - Alibaba's AI assistant, Qianwen, is designed to move beyond basic suggestions to actively assist users in real-life scenarios, integrating various services seamlessly [7][9]. - The app has already demonstrated its capability to handle a full transaction process, from receiving requests to completing bookings [9][14]. - Qianwen's integration with Alibaba's ecosystem allows for a comprehensive service offering, enhancing user experience and engagement [14][18]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The AI market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Alibaba needing to secure user entry points to maintain relevance against rivals like Tencent [13][28]. - The company is focusing on high-frequency consumption needs to build delivery capabilities and facilitate the transition to an AI-driven future [29][30]. - Alibaba's approach is characterized by a significant investment in user acquisition and retention, indicating a long-term strategy to dominate the AI consumer market [28][29].

Macro and Financial - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, up by $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025. Gold reserves also rose for 15 months, totaling 7.419 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [2] - The State Council is exploring policies to promote effective investment, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [3] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterated the ban on virtual currency activities, classifying them as illegal financial activities within the country [4] - A new document was released to cultivate data circulation service institutions, aiming to enhance the marketization and value of data elements [5] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced strict regulations on the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens based on domestic assets overseas [10] - The domestic ETF market has become the largest in Asia, with a market size of approximately $860 billion by the end of 2025, surpassing Japan. The net inflow of funds into ETFs exceeded 1.16 trillion yuan, with bond ETFs attracting 552.7 billion yuan [11] - A joint effort by five departments targets illegal "agent rights protection" activities on social media platforms, particularly in short videos and live streaming [12] - Gold and silver prices have shown significant volatility, deviating from stability, with major mining companies experiencing drastic stock price changes [13][14] - The European Commission has initiated an investigation into Chinese company Goldwind Technology under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, raising concerns about trade barriers [15][16] Business and Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a "1+N" policy system to foster new growth points in service consumption, with specific support policies for various sectors [20] - Nationwide implementation of direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals has been achieved, with efforts to include more workers in the maternity insurance coverage [21] - Hainan province is launching a "zero tariff" policy for daily consumer goods, with the first five duty-free stores set to open [22] - Kuaishou has been fined 119 million yuan for issues related to inappropriate content on its platform and has committed to rectifying the situation [23] - Elon Musk emphasized the importance of energy production and capacity over traditional currency in future economic frameworks [24] - China's commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches by 2026, following successful tests of reusable spacecraft technology [24] - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about AI development, indicating that demand for AI infrastructure will remain strong in the coming years [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing bipartisan political consensus against the rapid expansion of data centers in the U.S., highlighting the risks posed by both political opposition and physical limitations of the electrical grid [2][4][15]. Group 1: Political Environment - The political landscape has seen unusual alignment between figures like Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis, both advocating for a slowdown in data center construction due to public concerns over noise, water usage, and rising electricity costs [4]. - New York has become the sixth state to consider a moratorium on new data center construction, reflecting a broader trend of community protests and regulatory scrutiny across various states [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion by 2026 faces skepticism regarding its feasibility, especially given the current limitations of the U.S. electrical grid [7][10]. - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, have planned AI infrastructure spending of $670 billion this year, raising concerns about whether these funds can be effectively utilized [7][9]. Group 3: Energy Demand and Supply Constraints - Data centers are projected to double their energy demand by 2035, increasing from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW, which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of 80 million households [9]. - The Texas electrical grid operator, ERCOT, has proposed a review of projects consuming approximately 8.2 GW of power, indicating a significant regulatory slowdown that could hinder the expansion of data centers [10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial markets have reacted sharply to the risks associated with unspent capital, leading to significant sell-offs in momentum stocks, marking one of the largest single-day declines in a decade [11]. - Concerns over the inability to meet new electricity demands have negatively impacted independent power producers, with some stocks experiencing declines of up to 27% year-to-date [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the overlooked risk in AI investments, particularly the potential inability to utilize massive capital expenditures due to political and physical constraints on data center construction and operation [4][8][12]. Group 1: Political Environment - A rare bipartisan consensus has emerged between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis regarding the need to halt the rapid increase of data centers, driven by public concerns over the negative impacts of AI [9][11]. - Public protests against data centers have intensified, citing issues such as noise pollution, water resource depletion, and rising electricity costs for local communities [11][12]. - Legislative actions are being proposed in various states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Virginia, to either eliminate tax incentives or impose moratoriums on new data center projects [11][12]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Market Dynamics - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, plan to spend approximately $670 billion on AI infrastructure, raising questions about whether this capital can be effectively deployed [15][17]. - The scale of this capital expenditure is comparable to historical projects like the Apollo program and the interstate highway system, indicating its significance in the U.S. economy [17][20]. - Amazon alone plans to increase its capital expenditure by nearly 60% to $200 billion this year, primarily for data center construction [17]. Group 3: Physical Constraints - The current U.S. electrical grid is unable to meet the anticipated energy demands of new data centers, which are projected to double their energy consumption by 2035 [20][21]. - In Texas, the ERCOT has proposed a review of approximately 8.2 gigawatts of power consumption projects, causing delays in previously approved data center projects [21]. - The uncertainty surrounding the electrical grid's capacity is jeopardizing the expansion plans of tech giants, leading to a potential failure to utilize the allocated $670 billion budget for AI development [21][22]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The financial markets have reacted sharply to the realization that the risk of "money not being spent" is becoming a reality, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks [22][26]. - Companies in the independent power producer sector, previously seen as beneficiaries of AI growth, have also suffered declines due to fears that new energy demands cannot be met [24][26]. - The market is facing a dilemma: either believe in the miraculous expansion of the electrical grid to accommodate the $600 billion in capital expenditures or acknowledge the physical limitations that could lead to a collapse of the AI investment bubble [22][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending investments in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and AI social sectors [5]. Core Insights - The AI model competition is intensifying, with major players deepening capital ties. TSMC is upgrading its processes in Japan, while Meituan is consolidating its instant retail operations. SpaceX's acquisition of xAI marks the beginning of a new narrative in "orbital AI" [2]. - Alphabet reported Q4 2025 earnings of $113.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with net profit reaching $34.46 billion, up 30%. The company expects significant capital expenditures in 2026 to meet existing customer demand [5][8]. - OpenAI launched GPT-5.3-Codex, claiming it to be the strongest programming agent to date, achieving a score of 77.3% on the Terminal-Bench 2.0 benchmark, a 13 percentage point improvement over its predecessor [9]. - SpaceX confirmed the acquisition of AI company xAI, aiming to integrate AI with rocket and satellite communications, with an estimated post-acquisition valuation of $1.25 trillion [10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - Alphabet's Q4 2025 revenue reached $113.83 billion, with a net profit of $34.46 billion, marking a significant year-on-year growth. The company anticipates higher capital expenditures in 2026 to support AI investments and infrastructure [8]. AI Industry News - Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.6, enhancing long text processing capabilities and introducing adaptive reasoning features. Amazon is considering a significant investment in OpenAI to develop customized AI models [23]. - TSMC plans to produce 3nm chips in Japan, increasing its investment from $12.2 billion to $17 billion, supported by the Japanese government [24]. - Meituan acquired Dingdong Maicai for approximately $717 million, aligning with its long-term strategy in grocery retail [24]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include NVIDIA (NVDA.O), TSMC (TSM.N), ASML (ASML.O), and Broadcom (AVGO.O) in the computing sector. For cloud vendors, Microsoft (MSFT.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), and Google (GOOGL.O) are highlighted. In AI applications, Apple (AAPL.O), Qualcomm (QCOM.O), and Xiaomi (1810.HK) are recommended [25].