Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [17] Core Views - The pig farming sector shows significant profitability but with large variances due to cost differences, leading to a stronger performance from leading companies [19][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a structural adjustment with varying profitability across different types of chickens, indicating a potential bottoming out in the white chicken segment [22][26] - The seed industry faces inventory pressure, but the biotechnological breeding sector is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies [29][30] - The pet industry is witnessing rapid growth of domestic brands, with a focus on high-income growth companies [32][33] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to improving market demand and continuous performance from leading companies [34] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Q1 sales prices for most A-share pig companies were between 14.5-15.5 yuan/kg, down from 16-17 yuan/kg in Q4 2024 [19] - Leading companies like Shennong and Juxing saw over 60% year-on-year growth in output [19] - Average profit per pig improved significantly, with Shennong achieving around 300-350 yuan per head [19][21] - Some companies are returning cash to shareholders with dividend payout ratios of 49.6% for Tiankang and 42.4% for Muyuan [19] Poultry Sector - The profitability of white chickens is narrowing, with major companies reporting significant declines in net profits [22] - The supply of parent stock is at a five-year low, indicating a potential for price increases as demand recovers [26] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng [25][26] Seed Industry - The seed sector's net profit dropped by 37.6% in Q1 2025 due to oversupply, with leading companies showing varied performance [29] - High R&D investment continues, with a focus on biotechnological advancements expected to enhance competitiveness [30][31] Pet Industry - Major pet food companies reported strong revenue growth, with significant increases in net profits for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong [32] - The demand for senior pet care products is rising, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [32] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted for its market share growth and improving financial performance, with Q1 revenues up by 10.6% [34] - The aquaculture feed market is expected to improve due to rising fish prices and supportive consumption policies [34] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is experiencing revenue and profit differentiation, with some companies like Huisheng showing over 50% growth [35] - Investment focus is on new product lines and the potential for pet health products to capture market share [35][36]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 2,706.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, and a net profit of 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% year-on-year [4][14] - The profitability indicators showed improvement, with the gross profit margin at 12.91% in Q1 2025, up 5.74 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin at 5.16%, an increase of 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [4][18] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The livestock sector saw significant year-on-year profit growth, with poultry farming, livestock farming, feed, and pet food sectors showing net profit increases of 1,109.96%, 389.01%, 230.88%, and 75.67% respectively in 2024 [5][20] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth rates for feed, poultry farming, livestock farming, aquaculture, animal health, and pet food sectors were 962.42%, 588.35%, 254.62%, 117.28%, and 21.27% respectively [5][20] Weekly Perspective - The swine sector shows low-positioning value, with the recovery of profitability and consumer demand boosting the sector. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][24] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with recommended stocks including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Petty Co. [6][26] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] - The feed sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with individual stocks like Ruip Biotech, New Sai Co., and Daodaoquan leading the market [7][32] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat rose by 0.11 yuan/kg to 19.2 yuan/kg [8][37] - The average price of beef increased to 69.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.74% rise [8][43] - The average price of bass rose to 35.30 yuan/kg, up 3.82% from the previous week [8][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]

Group 1: Overall Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 28.767 billion CNY, with feed product revenue accounting for 19.054 billion CNY (66.24%) [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 715 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 115.9% [2] - The overall gross profit margin improved to 15.14% [2] Group 2: Business Segment Performance Feed Segment - In 2024, external sales volume of feed products was 5.4055 million tons, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year [3] - Revenue from pig feed was 14.658 billion CNY, down 21.7% due to raw material price declines [3] - Aquaculture feed external sales volume decreased by 29.9%, with revenue of 1.33 billion CNY, a 32.3% decline [3] Pig Farming Segment - Total pig output for 2024 was 6.4046 million heads, a 5.9% increase year-on-year [4] - Average profit per head was 175 CNY, with some regions exceeding 300 CNY [4] - The total cost of pig farming was below 14 CNY/kg [4] Seed Industry Segment - In 2024, total sales of corn, rice, and soybean seeds reached 53.5264 million kg [5] - Corn seed sales were 36.3039 million kg, down 9%, generating revenue of 820 million CNY [5] - Soybean seed sales increased by 102%, achieving revenue of 22 million CNY [5] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.865 billion CNY, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 134 million CNY, a 164.13% increase [7] - Pig farming output for Q1 2025 was 1.8399 million heads, a 26.7% increase [7] Group 4: Future Technology and Research Initiatives - The company is advancing synthetic biology research, focusing on high-efficiency genetic transformation and gene editing [10] - The establishment of the Agricultural Synthetic Biology Innovation Center aims to develop key technologies in agricultural biotechnology [12] - The center will support the development of new products such as feed proteins and green fertilizers [12] Group 5: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented measures to reduce costs in pig farming, achieving a complete cost of 12.9 CNY/kg [8] - Strategies include breed improvement, enhanced biosecurity, and optimized nutrition [14] - The company aims to further reduce costs through continuous improvements in various operational aspects [14] Group 6: Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company targets a feed production capacity of 10 million tons, focusing on differentiated product offerings [18] - The market share for seed traits is expected to increase, supported by favorable government policies [17] - The company plans to enhance collaboration across business segments to explore new growth opportunities [19]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 大北农（002385.SZ） 养殖盈利修复，饲料及种业开局良好 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1饲料及种业开局良好、养殖盈利改善。公司未来将聚焦强化种业、疫苗动 保等科技产业业务，夯实饲料业务，平稳发展生猪养殖业务。 ❑ 风险提示：猪价表现/公司规模扩张低于预期，突发大规模不可控疫情；自然 灾害，转基因商业化进度不达预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 33390 | 28767 | 33720 | 35969 | 38193 | | 同比增长 | 3% | -14% | 17% | 7% | 6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (2485) | 791 | 805 | 984 | 1218 | | 同比增长 | -761% | -132% | 2% | 22% | 24% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2174) | 346 | 549 | 725 | 93 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 346 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 6.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, with a net profit of 134 million yuan, also turning from loss to profit [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to expected declines in pig prices, projecting net profits of 767 million yuan, 804 million yuan, and 836 million yuan for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Feed Business - In 2024, feed revenue was 19.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.68%, with a gross margin of 12.49%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - Total feed sales were 5.4055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.61%, with significant growth in poultry feed sales, which increased by 54.55% [2] - The company optimized its channel structure, with 32% of feed product revenue from distribution channels and 68% from direct sales [2] Group 3: Swine Business - The company sold 6.405 million pigs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, with swine business revenue of 6.278 billion yuan, up 10.10% year-on-year [2] - The net profit from swine business was 1.122 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 19.80%, an increase of 27.71 percentage points, attributed to rising pig prices and declining breeding costs [2] Group 4: Seed Business - In 2024, seed revenue was 1.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, with sales of 53.5264 million kilograms, up 1.7% [3] - The company has a robust reserve of genetically modified traits, with multiple products approved for production and import licenses [3] - As of April 8, 2025, 97 genetically modified corn varieties passed initial review, with 61% of them utilizing the company's traits [3]

债券代码：127015、127049 债券简称：希望转债、希望转 2 证券代码：000876 证券简称：新 希 望 新希望六和股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-01 | 投 资 者 | □特定对象调研 | √分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关 系 活 | □新闻发布会 | □现场参观 | □其他 | | | 动类别 | | | | | | | 单位名称 | 人员姓名 | 单位名称 | 人员姓名 | | | 华泰证券 | 熊承慧 | 中邮证券 | 王琦 | | | 华泰证券 | 张正芳 | 华夏基金 | 李柄桦 | | | 华泰证券 | 季珂 | 海富通基金 | 赵晨凯 | | | 华泰证券 | 施琪 | 天治基金 | 王策源 | | | Pinpoint | 倪韬 | 北京止于至善投资 | 李韵舟 | | | 易知投资 | 王建 | Goldman Sachs | 史慧瑜 | | | 国泰租赁 | 田永新 | 长江证券 | 高一岑 | | | 鹏华基金 | 王力 | 星展银行 | 徐兆基 | | | 华源证券 | 顾超 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - In April, the breeding profits improved, and the pet food export volume increased by 20% in Q1 [1]. - The agricultural index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 3.3% from early April to April 29, while the CSI 300 fell by 2.89% [5][12]. - The domestic pet food market continues to expand, with a Q1 export value increase of 12% [5]. Summary by Sections Price Indicators and Agricultural Performance - In March, the CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year, with a 46% reduction in agricultural trade deficit [7]. - The total market value of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 12,849.69 billion yuan, accounting for 1.38% of the total A-share market value [12]. Breeding Profits and Pet Food Exports - The breeding profits for pigs improved in April, with the price on April 23 being 15.09 yuan/kg, down 7.2% from the end of 2024 [5][31]. - The number of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a 1% decrease from the previous quarter [34]. - The pet food market reached a scale of 107.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.7% from 2017 to 2024 [5]. Investment Recommendations and Stock Pool - Focus on leading pig farming companies with strong cost control and healthy financial conditions, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5]. - The report suggests monitoring the poultry industry, particularly the yellow-feathered chicken sector, due to potential price increases [5]. - Attention is also drawn to feed industry leaders like Haida Group and animal vaccine companies such as Reap Bio and Kexin Bio [5].