Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the price of thermal coal has shown a fluctuating upward trend across all segments this week, with prices rising at the port, production site, and international levels. In the short term, the resumption of work and production after the holiday, combined with low inventory levels, is expected to support a strong coal price. In the medium to long term, prices are anticipated to stabilize within a reasonable range due to supply constraints and resilient demand [1] - For coking coal, prices have shown a weak and stable differentiation this week, with port prices remaining flat week-on-week, production site prices declining slightly, and the FOB price of Australian hard coking coal decreasing marginally. Overall, the market activity has decreased ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a weak supply-demand balance that keeps prices stable. In the medium to long term, prices are expected to gradually stabilize and recover as downstream production resumes and iron output increases, alongside expectations of reduced overseas supply [1] Group 2 - In the secondary market, the equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector outperforming the index. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a structural market where the technology growth sector led gains while the consumer sector experienced a pullback. The leading sectors were concentrated in information technology, benefiting from breakthroughs in AI large models and rising global semiconductor storage chip prices, which drove demand for computing infrastructure and AI terminals [2] - The coal sector outperformed the index, and there is a recommendation to continue focusing on high-quality coal stocks with abundant cash flow and high dividends [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as production restrictions and real - estate policies. The short - term trend of the steel market is expected to be a narrow adjustment. The iron ore market is affected by supply recovery and demand fluctuations, and the price is expected to show an oscillatory trend. The coking coal and coke markets are in a recovery stage, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, with cost support but limited upward drive [1]. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot prices rose. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction control during the important national meeting. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" was issued to adjust and optimize real - estate policies. The short - term steel futures market may have a narrow adjustment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rose. The global shipping volume has recovered, and the demand is in the off - season. The iron water output has a small fluctuation. After the post - holiday inspection, the steel mills' resumption of production and restocking needs should be concerned. The ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose. The main producing areas' coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coking enterprises' production recovery is slow. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose. The coking enterprises' production is normal, and the inventory pressure is gradually weakening. Some steel mills have received emission reduction notices, and the procurement demand is general. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" boosted market sentiment. The South African semi - carbonate price rose slightly. The cost has support, but the upward drive is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" boosted market sentiment. The cost support is slightly weak. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 5 - 10 spread of rebar being - 37.0 with a month - on - month increase of 8.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different changes, for example, the 05 - contract basis of rebar is 134.0 with a month - on - month decrease of 49.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have different changes, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3210.0 with no month - on - month change [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread data of different varieties are presented, such as the rebar's disk profit being - 45.6 with a month - on - month increase of 9.4, and the coil - rebar spread being 160.0 with a month - on - month decrease of 8.0 [4]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][26][28][31][33][35][37]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [38][39][40][41]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trend charts of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][47]. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [49]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [50].

Company Analysis - Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) is expected to see a 64% decline in net profit to AUD 440 million in 2025, which is 15% lower than market expectations but 20% higher than internal forecasts due to high sensitivity to profit per unit assumptions [2] - The company announced a final dividend of AUD 0.122 per share, along with an interim dividend of AUD 0.062 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 55%, in line with its dividend policy [2] - For 2026, Yancoal's equity sales volume is projected to grow by 3%, but unit cash costs are expected to rise by approximately 1% due to ongoing raw material cost inflation [2] - Coal price expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 8% and 7% respectively, reflecting signs of stabilization in shipping coal prices [2] - The target price for Yancoal has been increased from HKD 31 to HKD 38, based on an updated long-term thermal coal price assumption of AUD 140 per ton [2] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,766, up 0.66% for the day and 4.43% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% to close at 4,147, with a year-to-date increase of 4.49% [3] - The US stock market saw all major indices rebound, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.26% [5] - European markets continued their upward trend, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.69% to reach a historical high [5] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar approached 6.85, marking a nearly three-year high [5] Industry Insights - The AI server business is expected to experience rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 95% from FY25 to FY27, leading to AI-related revenue constituting 18% of total revenue by FY27 [6] - The company anticipates a recovery in gross and net profit margins in Q4 FY25, with gross margin expected to return to 20.2% and net margin to 5.0% [6] - The target price for Hongteng Precision has been raised to HKD 7.33, based on a 21x FY26E price-to-earnings ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

智通财经获悉，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)绩后低开逾8%，截至发稿，跌8.53%，报30.88港元，成交额77.82 万港元。 公告显示，收入减少主要由于煤炭销售收入由2024年的67.66亿澳元减少15%至2025年的57.79亿澳元所 致。兖煤澳大利亚自产煤的整体平均售价由2024年的176澳元/吨下降17%至2025年的146澳元/吨，主要 由于全球煤炭美元价格下降。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，兖煤澳大利亚公布2025年业绩，实现收入为59.49亿澳元，同比减少约13%；股东应占溢利 4.4亿澳元，同比减少约64%。公司宣派2025年度末期免税股息约1.61亿澳元，叠加中期已宣派的免税股 息约0.82亿澳元，2025全年合计宣派免税股息总额约2.43亿澳元。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research on the black series of commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions [1][2] - The real estate policy is optimized and adjusted, which has an impact on the prices of related black series products. For example, the expectation of the real estate market warms up, which leads to the rebound of iron ore prices and the upward trend of log prices [2][4] - Macroeconomic factors and industry news have an impact on the market trends of commodities. For example, the temporary independent emission reduction notice during the two sessions affects the steel market, and the adjustment of coal production policies affects the coal market [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron ore - **Price trend**: The price rebounds due to the warming expectation of the real estate market. The closing price of I2605 is 752.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.62% [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of imported iron ore such as PB and Jinbuba have increased, while the price of super special iron ore has slightly decreased. The basis and spread have also changed to varying degrees [4] - **Industry news**: The real estate policy in Shanghai is optimized and adjusted, and some steel enterprises in North China receive temporary independent emission reduction notices during the two sessions [4][5] Rebar and hot-rolled coil - **Price trend**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the prices fluctuate repeatedly. The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 are 3,076 yuan/ton and 3,236 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.72% and 1.19% [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and positions of the two have changed. The spot prices in different regions are relatively stable, and the basis and spread differences have also changed [7] - **Industry news**: The real estate policy in Shanghai is optimized and adjusted. The weekly data of steel production, inventory and apparent demand have changed, and the production and inventory of key steel enterprises have changed in January [8][9] Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese - **Price trend**: Affected by real estate sentiment, the sector fluctuates at a low level [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of futures and spot goods of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have changed, and the basis, spread, and cross - variety spread have also changed [11] - **Industry news**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are reported, and the manganese ore price is firm [11][13] Coke and coking coal - **Price trend**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 are 1,126 yuan/ton and 1,674 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2% and 2.4% [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of futures and spot goods of coke and coking coal have changed, and the basis and spread differences have also changed [14] - **Industry news**: The CCI metallurgical coal index is reported, and the coking coal online auction situation is analyzed [14] Thermal coal - **Price trend**: The upstream quotation is firm, and the short - term coal price is strong. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 732 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [19][20] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas have changed, and the long - term agreement price has also changed [20] - **Industry news**: The North Port market is stable and strong, the upstream quotation is high and firm, and the Indonesian coal production policy is adjusted [21] Logs - **Price trend**: Due to the warming expectation of the real estate market, the price fluctuates strongly. The closing prices of 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts have increased to varying degrees [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, positions, and spreads of futures contracts and the prices of spot logs in different regions and varieties have changed [22] - **Industry news**: The real estate policy in Shanghai is optimized and adjusted, and the Trump administration plans to increase the temporary global tariff rate [24]

截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668.HK)跌7.53%。根据公告，截至2025年12月31日止年度的年度业绩，经 营收入由2024年的68.96亿澳元减少14%至2025年的59.10亿澳元，主要由于煤炭销售收入由2024年的 67.66亿澳元减少15%至2025年的57.79亿澳元所致。 来源：滚动播报 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The performance of the dividend strategy is highlighted as particularly strong in a volatile market, driven by the certainty premium of high dividend assets [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 26, 2026, the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index rose by 0.21%, with notable increases in stocks such as CITIC Special Steel (+2.68%) and Shaanxi GuoDian (+1.60%) [1]. - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) increased by 0.34% [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Longjiang Securities emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by a downward shift in growth and declining interest rates, enhances the value of stable cash-returning assets [1]. - The pursuit of certainty in investment styles is expected to continue, maintaining the focus on the allocation value of dividend assets [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies selected for their high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high dividend yield securities among state-owned enterprises [1]. - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 16.61% of the total index weight, including companies like COSCO Shipping and Shanxi Coking Coal [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of almost AUD 6 billion, a decrease of 13% from the previous year due to lower average realized coal prices [5][21] - Operating EBITDA was over AUD 1.4 billion with a margin of 24%, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability despite weak coal prices [5][21] - Profit after tax was AUD 440 million, translating to AUD 0.33 per share, with a total dividend payout ratio of 55% of net profit after tax [5][25] - The company retains a strong balance sheet with AUD 2.1 billion in cash and no external debt as of December 31 [6][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ROM coal production reached 67 million tons, a record for the company and a 7% increase from 2024 [4][10] - Attributable salable coal production was 38.6 million tons, up 5% compared to 2024, with sales volumes optimized despite weather-related challenges [9][10] - Cash operating costs were AUD 92 per ton, a reduction of AUD 1 per ton from the first half of the year and lower than 2024 costs [4][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall realized coal price was AUD 146 per ton, down 17% from 2024, influenced by strong supply and weak demand conditions in international markets [17][18] - Revenue from Japan increased due to a higher proportion of metallurgical coal sales, while revenue from China decreased as domestic supply was utilized more [16][17] - Global metallurgical coal exports fell by 7% in 2025, with demand remaining lackluster due to steel exports from China [18][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain operational momentum into 2026, with guidance for attributable salable production set between 36.5 million and 40.5 million tons [25][26] - A focus on sustainability is evident, with plans to develop a climate transition plan in 2026 and ongoing initiatives to improve sustainability data capture [7][8] - The company is evaluating opportunities for growth and M&A, leveraging its strong financial position while adhering to its dividend framework [58][96] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining production levels despite anticipated inflationary pressures on operating and capital expenditures [32][33] - The outlook for coal prices remains cautious, with potential impacts from Indonesian production cuts being monitored [35][36] - The company recognizes the volatility of the Australian dollar and its impact on foreign exchange losses, while also managing costs effectively [41][92] Other Important Information - The company has set world records for material movement at its mines, showcasing operational efficiency and capability [11] - A commitment to safety is highlighted, with improved safety performance metrics reported [6][7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production cadence expectations for 2026 - Management expects a lower production figure in Q1, with more consistent production in subsequent quarters [30][31] Question: Measures to address cost inflation - The company has allowed for slight cost inflation in its guidance and aims to offset it through productivity initiatives [32][33] Question: Impact of Indonesian production cuts on coal prices - The market reacted to potential production cuts, but no official policies have been confirmed yet [35][36] Question: Foreign exchange losses and future expectations - The company anticipates continued volatility in the Australian dollar, which may impact US dollar holdings [41] Question: Demand outlook for thermal coal in traditional markets - Demand for higher quality coal remains stable, particularly in Japan, with a focus on security of supply [52] Question: M&A opportunities and capital management - The company is actively evaluating M&A opportunities while maintaining a strong balance sheet and adhering to its dividend policy [58][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of almost AUD 6 billion, a decrease of 13% from the previous year due to lower average realized coal prices [20] - Operating EBITDA was over AUD 1.4 billion with a margin of 24%, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability despite weak coal prices [5][20] - Profit after tax was AUD 440 million, translating to AUD 0.33 per share, with a total dividend payout of AUD 243 million, representing a 55% payout ratio [5][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ROM coal production reached 67 million tons, a 7% increase from 2024, while attributable salable coal production was 38.6 million tons, up 5% compared to the previous year [4][10] - Cash operating costs were AUD 92 per ton, a reduction of AUD 1 per ton from the first half of 2025 and lower than 2024 costs [4][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall realized coal price was AUD 146 per ton, down 17% from 2024, influenced by strong supply and weak demand conditions in international thermal coal markets [16] - Revenue from Japan increased due to a higher proportion of metallurgical coal sales, while revenue and volumes from China decreased as domestic supply was utilized more [15][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain operational momentum into 2026, with increased attributable salable production guidance of 36.5 million to 40.5 million tons [24] - A focus on sustainability is evident, with plans to develop a climate transition plan in 2026 and initiatives like the Sustainability Digital Data Platform launched in Q3 2025 [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by inflationary pressures on operating and capital expenditures but expressed confidence in offsetting these through productivity initiatives [32] - The company remains optimistic about the coal market, noting potential supply shortfalls in the coming years due to approval and financing challenges for new mines [18][19] Other Important Information - The company retains a strong balance sheet with AUD 2.1 billion in cash and no external debt as of December 31 [6] - Safety performance improved, with a TRIFR statistic below the industry average, emphasizing the company's commitment to workforce safety [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production cadence expectations for 2026 - Management expects a lower production figure in Q1 2026, with more consistent production in subsequent quarters [30] Question: Measures to address cost inflation - The company has increased cost guidance to reflect expected inflationary pressures and will continue to target productivity initiatives to offset these costs [32] Question: Outlook for coal prices with potential production cuts in Indonesia - Management noted that the market reacted to comments about production cuts in Indonesia, but no concrete policy changes have been confirmed yet [34] Question: Foreign exchange losses due to US dollar holdings - The company highlighted the volatility of the Australian dollar and its impact on foreign exchange losses, particularly with US dollar working capital [41] Question: Demand for 6,000 kcal coal in traditional markets - Demand for higher quality coal remains stable, particularly in Japan, with a focus on security of supply [52] Question: M&A opportunities and balance sheet management - The company is evaluating opportunities to enhance shareholder value while maintaining a strong financial position [58]