Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Spot Market - **Australian Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 746, up 3 daily and 30 weekly; PB powder at 748, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly; Mac powder at 732, unchanged daily and up 26 weekly; etc [2]. - **Brazilian Ore**: Ba Hun is at 782, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly; Ba Coarse IOC6 at 723, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly; etc [2]. - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 832, up 1 daily and 24 weekly; 61% Indian powder at 704, unchanged daily and up 49 weekly; etc [2]. - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 881, up 6 daily and 12 weekly [2]. Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 736.5, up 1 daily and 29.5 weekly; i2605 at 717, up 1 daily and 27.5 weekly; i2509 at 764, up 0.5 daily and 31.5 weekly [2]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is at 97.98, up 2.87 daily and 3.25 weekly; FE05 at 96.39, up 2.78 daily and 3.25 weekly; FE09 at 99.01, up 2.81 daily and 2.76 weekly [2]. Group 4: Other Market Indicators - **Import Profit**: Newman powder has an import profit of -28.65; PB powder -9.59; Mac powder -5.90; etc [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: For i2601, the monthly spread is 27.5, up 3.4 daily and 4.4 weekly; for i2605, 19.5, up 3.4 daily and 6.4 weekly; etc [2]. - **Premium**: Information on U - ball/pellet premium, PB block/block ore premium is presented [2]. - **Basis/Spread**: Details of basis and spread between domestic and foreign markets are provided [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is beneficial for commodity prices in the long term, as it encourages stability and innovation in production rather than destructive price competition [1]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, achieving a double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in inventory levels and production rhythm among car manufacturers is attributed to the ongoing efforts to address "involution" competition [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded significantly due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with current glass production enterprise inventory at 57.34 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 970,000 heavy boxes week-on-week [2]. Soda ash inventory stands at 1.864 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - **Steel**: Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, with steel inventory continuing to decrease. Despite facing export challenges, the demand remains resilient, and the market is expected to see a strong performance in steel prices [3][22]. - **Stock Indices**: The U.S. stock indices have shown volatility, with a market turnover of 1.74 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 4.768 billion yuan to 1.8605 trillion yuan [3][8]. Group 3: Industry News - The "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project has successfully produced its first barrel of uranium, marking a significant breakthrough in China's natural uranium production capabilities [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.66%, with the central bank shifting from net absorption to net injection in the open market [9]. The market is currently facing uncertainties due to international trade tensions and inflation concerns [9]. - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with OPEC expected to approve significant production increases in September [10]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The U.S. soybean crop's good condition remains stable, with the good rate at 66%, while the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to remain ample, putting pressure on prices [24]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown slight declines, reflecting challenges in increasing freight rates amid fluctuating demand [26].

Price Trends - Import iron ore prices have increased compared to the previous week, with 62% grade iron ore priced at 95.70 USD/ton, up 1.38% from June 27, and 65% grade at 104.98 USD/ton, up 1.72% [1][2] - Domestic iron ore prices have seen a slight decrease, with 66% grade iron concentrate priced at 869 RMB/ton, unchanged from June 27 [1] Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports totaled 24.135 million tons from June 23 to June 29, a decrease of 3.594 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.784 million tons as of July 4, a decrease of 518,300 tons [3] - The average daily steel mill operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points week-on-week [3] Shipping and Freight Costs - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1436 points, down 85 points week-on-week [2] - Freight costs from Australia to Qingdao were 7.39 USD/ton, an increase of 0.23 USD/ton, while freight from Brazil decreased to 18.58 USD/ton, down 0.12 USD/ton [3] Steel Production - In late June, key steel enterprises produced 21.29 million tons of steel, with an average daily production of 2.129 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% week-on-week [4] - The estimated daily production of steel nationwide was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% [4]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 铁矿石市场周报 港口库存由增转降 铁矿期价震荡走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至7月11日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为764（+31.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉795（+22）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比-362.7万吨。2025年06月30日-07月06日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量2994.9万吨，环比减少 362.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2465.0万吨，环比减少417.3万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+122万吨。2025年06月30日-07月06日中国47港到港总量2535.5万吨，环比增加122.0万吨；中国45港到 港总量2483.9万吨，环比增加120.9万吨；北方六港到港总量1412.0万吨，环比增加194.8万吨。 4. ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Asia-Pacific Iron Ore Supply and Demand and Investment Development Conference was held in Perth, Australia, gathering over 200 industry experts and representatives from various countries to discuss key topics related to global mining resources and supply prospects, opportunities in the Asian steel industry, and innovations in iron ore supply chain models [1] - The conference featured high-level leaders from the Western Australia government, the Australia China Business Council Perth Chapter, and renowned international companies such as Rio Tinto and Hancock, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in the iron ore sector [1] Group 2 - Dr. Gui Chenxi from CITIC Futures highlighted the impact of global economic conditions, geopolitical factors, supply-demand relationships, and financial market fluctuations on commodity price volatility, noting the increasing maturity of China's futures market [3] - CITIC Futures aims to provide international investors with comprehensive services, including education on the Chinese futures market, policy interpretation, global commodity market research, and customized settlement services, positioning itself as a key player in risk management and global asset allocation [3] Group 3 - The conference showcased the "Chinese market" and "Chinese solutions" to global iron ore industry participants, reinforcing CITIC Futures' professional brand image within the Australian iron ore supply chain and strengthening strategic partnerships with Australian mines, traders, and financial institutions [5] - Looking ahead, CITIC Futures plans to enhance its international business capabilities and serve as a bridge connecting overseas enterprises with the Chinese futures market, contributing to the global investment community's access to China's high-quality economic development [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant content provided Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Iron Ore Spot Market - The latest price of Newman powder is 743, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of 29. Its import profit is -29.03 [1] - The latest price of PB powder is 748, with a daily change of 23 and a weekly change of 25. Its import profit is -7.47 [1] - The latest price of Mac powder is 732, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of 27. Its import profit is -4.47 [1] - The latest price of Jinbuba powder is 715, with a daily change of 29 and a weekly change of 40. Its import profit is 1.66 [1] - The latest price of mainstream mixed powder is 675, with a daily change of 16 and a weekly change of 17. Its import profit is -2.30 [1] - The latest price of Super Special powder is 635, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 25. Its import profit is -5.34 [1] - The latest price of Carajás powder is 845, with a daily change of 21 and a weekly change of 27. Its import profit is -25.14 [1] - The latest price of Brazilian mixed powder is 782, with a daily change of 23 and a weekly change of 25. Its import profit is -0.49 [1] - The latest price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 875, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of 9 [1] Iron Ore Futures Market - The latest price of i2601 contract is 735.5, with a daily change of 25.5 and a weekly change of 28.5. The monthly spread is 28.0 [1] - The latest price of i2605 contract is 716.0, with a daily change of 24.0 and a weekly change of 27.0. The monthly spread is 19.5 [1] - The latest price of i2509 contract is 763.5, with a daily change of 27.0 and a weekly change of 30.5. The monthly spread is -47.5 [1] - The latest price of FE01 contract is 95.11, with a daily change of 0.65 and a weekly change of 1.44. The monthly spread is -35.9 [1] - The latest price of FE05 contract is 93.61, with a daily change of 0.71 and a weekly change of 1.43. The monthly spread is 1.50 [1] - The latest price of FE09 contract is 96.20, with a daily change of 0.48 and a weekly change of 1.23 [1]

Group 1 - Iron ore futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 763.0 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.60% [1] - On July 9, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 942,000 tons, a decrease of 5.71% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions were 1.56 million tons [2] - The Guinea Simandou project, jointly developed by China Baowu and Rio Tinto, is expected to be a major source of global iron ore capacity growth over the next 5 to 10 years, with reserves estimated at 2.4 billion tons and an iron grade of 65% [2] Group 2 - According to Minmetals Futures, macroeconomic expectations are increasingly influencing market dynamics, with previous seasonal low iron water levels and recent sentiment boosts contributing to upward price elasticity [3] - Donghai Futures noted that the recent rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, with a marginal weakening in the iron ore fundamentals [3] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 3.62 million tons this week, while port inventories also saw a decline of 820,000 tons [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - **Crude Oil**: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - **Gold**: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - **Silver**: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - **PP**: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - **Plastic**: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - **Glass**: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - **Rubber**: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - **Peanut**: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Cotton**: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - **Egg**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Metals**: - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - **PP**: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - **Plastic**: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - **Glass**: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - **Peanut**: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - **Cotton**: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - **Egg**: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - **Polysilicon**: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The recent rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still in the process of bottoming out, and the current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore production is expected to decline. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Analysis**: The May economic data was slightly below expectations, and the June PMI improved. The real estate market is still bottoming out, with the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and demand is expected to weaken further with high - temperature weather. Technically, it's uncertain whether the futures price can break through upwards [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be held and should be closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel trading volume (7 - day moving average) was 16.05 tons, down 20.54% from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore production is expected to decline due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global shipment is high, and port inventory decline is slowing, putting pressure on futures prices. It may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term but faces resistance [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be lightly held and closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [5]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [5]. 3.3 Industry News On July 9, in the Lvliang coking coal online auction market, the average transaction price of Lishi low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1123 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan/ton from the previous period on June 25 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Although the steel mill production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore has decreased but remains at a high level within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills provides strong support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased month - on - month, but after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of miners continue to decrease, the overseas ore supply contracts, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable. The supply side is relatively favorable. The ore demand has certain resilience, and with the optimistic sentiment remaining, the ore price is supported to continue the upward - oscillating trend in the short term. However, the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upside potential should be cautiously optimistic, being alert to the switch of trading logic to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner. There are specific explanations for calculating the rise and fall amplitude and definitions of different trends [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, but ore consumption remains high within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills supports the ore price. Port arrivals increase, but miner shipments decrease, overseas supply contracts, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The demand has resilience, and the short - term ore price is supported to run with a slight upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and caution is needed for the upside potential [3].