1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, global risk appetite continues to recover. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends. The stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds fluctuate in the short term, and cautious waiting is recommended; the black commodity sector rebounds in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the non - ferrous sector fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the energy and chemical sector fluctuates greatly in the short term, and cautious long - positions are recommended; precious metals fluctuate greatly and rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Affected by new rumors of a cease - fire between the US and Iran, international oil prices declined in the short term, and the US dollar index and US bond yields declined but remained at relatively high levels. Global risk appetite increased overall. - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report put forward the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025 [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and trade, the domestic stock market rebounded significantly. In the short term, due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rebounded on Tuesday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 982.90 yuan/gram, up 0.37%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1.93%. Spot gold ended a nine - day losing streak and rose 1.54% to 4,474.31 US dollars/ounce; spot silver rose 2.8% to 71.05 US dollars/ounce. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was at a low level. The real demand is still weak, the steel inventory has peaked and declined, but the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 188,500 tons week - on - week, and the hot - metal output increased by nearly 69,000 tons. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The rebound in crude oil prices boosted the ore price. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded; the futures prices showed a differentiated trend, with silicon iron being slightly stronger. The rebound in energy prices still supports the ferroalloy prices. The spot price of manganese ore remains firm. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be in short supply, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream replenished stocks intensively at low prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the risk appetite recovered, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually bearish for aluminum, and the supply of aluminum in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. The LME aluminum has fallen near the rising trend line. The year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production from January to February is relatively large, and the pattern of "domestic weakness and foreign strength" may change temporarily [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenues make up for the losses. The overseas smelting plants will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased seasonally [9]. - **Lead**: From January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has recovered seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The domestic social inventory of primary lead has decreased [10]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. The supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside space is limited by high domestic and foreign inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar and other sources have increased. The demand is not good overall, and the industry is significantly differentiated. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 6.11%. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and long - positions can be established at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.17%. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Attention should be paid to the cost support below, and range - bound operations are recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.17%. The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously or profits should be taken in a timely manner [14][15]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol spot price index is 2676.38, up 32.04. The supply has tightened, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been repaired. The methanol price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback [16]. - **PP**: The domestic polypropylene parking rate has increased, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market shows signs of tightness, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern. The biggest uncertainty lies in the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to run strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting external supply [17]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural demand and strong industrial demand". The policy guides the market, and the urea price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [18]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed, and the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil is cautious [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed meal is increasing, and it will adjust with soybean meal in the short term [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting the basis. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will be under pressure with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, and the support for vegetable oils from crude oil risk has weakened. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the production has decreased. The domestic palm oil import is slow, and the market trading is light [21]. - **Corn**: The corn price is adjusting within a narrow range. The sales progress of corn in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. The acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises has decreased, and the possible rice bran auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is improving marginally but is still in the off - season. The industry's production capacity reduction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about inflation, causing a decline in global risk appetite. The short - term market sentiment has cooled, and the stock index may experience a correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, domestic Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index may see increased volatility in the short term, government bonds may fluctuate in the short term, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, triggering inflation concerns. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen in the short term, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic prosperity. Policy: The government work report's 2026 development goals and fiscal and monetary policies are less aggressive than in 2025. Market trading is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may correct, while government bonds may fluctuate. For commodities, black and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, energy and chemicals may rise significantly, and precious metals may oscillate. The recommended operation is to be cautious when going long, and to wait and see for black and non - ferrous metals [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as optoelectronic, power grid equipment, and education, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to factors such as the slowdown in economic prosperity, less aggressive policies, and the impact of the Middle East geopolitical risks, the stock index may correct in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Thursday night. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, spot gold and silver closed down. Precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [5]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - In the peak season, copper demand needs verification. High sulfuric acid prices and relatively high gold and silver prices ensure smelter profits, leading to a record - high refined copper production in March (expected to reach 1.2 million tons). Domestic and foreign copper inventories have been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage and a short - term sufficiency [6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the Shanghai aluminum market fluctuated sharply. It rose overnight due to Bahrain Aluminum's supply suspension, and then declined in the afternoon due to the Iranian military's statement about the Strait of Hormuz and the lower - than - expected economic growth targets at the Two Sessions. The conflict is expected to support aluminum prices, but market sentiment remains volatile [7][8]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are weak. The short - term geopolitical conflict has supported zinc prices, but in the medium term, there is a risk of a breakdown in prices after the conflict eases. In 2026, zinc concentrate supply is expected to increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons. Domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and overseas production will recover. Demand is not optimistic, and inventory pressure has increased [8]. Lead - In 2026, the global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, with a larger surplus than in 2025. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely and trend downward. In the short and medium term, lead production is high, demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing [9]. Nickel - As of March 5, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons, much higher than in previous years. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, but the first - quarter production will be normal. Nickel prices have strong support at the bottom but limited upward momentum [9]. Tin - The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined seasonally but is still higher than in previous years and will recover after the Lantern Festival. The conflict in Myanmar has caused concerns about tin supply, but there is no actual impact. Demand is weak in various industries, and domestic and LME tin inventories have increased [10]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose 3%, and the spot price also increased. The social inventory has been decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for it to stabilize and then go long at a low price [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose 2.27%. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, it is priced close to cost. It is recommended to operate within a range, paying attention to the cost support [12]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract fell 0.2%. Inventory has been accumulating at a high level, and the downstream silicon wafer price has declined rapidly. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sellers should hold positions cautiously [12]. Energy and Chemicals Methanol - The inland methanol market has weakened, and the port basis has remained weak. Due to the geopolitical conflict, Iranian methanol plants have shut down, and shipping has been affected. The market is worried about a reduction in imports, and methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [13]. PP - The geopolitical conflict has pushed up the cost of polypropylene and accelerated inventory reduction. The price has risen in the short term, but attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation to prevent a sharp decline [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has risen. After the Spring Festival, supply has increased, and demand is gradually rising. The increase in oil prices has pushed up the cost of PE, but there is a risk in the market [13]. Urea - The domestic urea market is weakening. After the Spring Festival, it was supported by agricultural demand, low inventory, and high tender prices. However, the release of commercial reserves may suppress the price in the short term. The price trend depends on the connection between industrial and agricultural demand [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures for May delivery fell 0.81%. The US soybean export sales and shipments data showed a mixed performance. The export sales decreased compared with the previous week and the four - week average, while the export shipments increased compared with the previous week [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean procurement for March by oil mills is basically completed. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound situation, with the top limited by high domestic inventory and weak demand and the bottom supported by the cost of US soybeans. The rapeseed meal market fluctuates with the soybean meal market. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to remain stable, but the supply pressure may increase as imported rapeseed arrives [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The oil mill opening rate has declined slightly. The soybean oil market is supported by oil prices but is facing supply - demand pressure. The rapeseed oil market is supported by oil prices and low inventory but may face supply pressure as Canadian rapeseed arrives in March [16]. Palm Oil - The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.67%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, which in turn has boosted palm oil prices. In addition, the risk of drought in Indonesia has increased, and the palm oil supply may be tight in the short term [17]. Corn - The corn price increase has slowed down. The prices in the northeast and northern ports are still strong, while the prices in the sales areas have stabilized. The increase in the arrival of imported barley and the expected release of policy - related grain sources may limit the upward movement of corn prices [17]. Pigs - The early - morning pig price in China was stable. The supply of pigs is abundant, and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival. Although there is support from the price - support mentality and the purchase - storage policy, the short - term rebound is limited. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of second - fattening and slaughterhouse inventory [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, for the stock index, if the Middle East situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment will bring good long - position layout opportunities; the asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision; copper prices are expected to run strongly with short - term fluctuations; aluminum prices will run strongly with short - term fluctuations; alumina will run with short - term oscillations; zinc prices are boosted in the short - term; nickel prices may run strongly with short - term fluctuations; stainless steel futures will run strongly with oscillations; tin prices are expected to continue to strengthen; precious metals prices are expected to continue to run strongly; industrial silicon shows an oscillatory trend; lithium carbonate is bullish; for steel products, most are in an oscillatory state; for agricultural products, different varieties have different trends such as oscillation, bullishness or bearishness; for energy and chemical products, different products have different trends affected by various factors such as geopolitics, supply and demand, and cost. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: If the Middle East conflict ends quickly and the situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities, similar to the situation in June 2025 [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent macro - positives boost copper prices, but continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices, and short - term copper prices are expected to run strongly with fluctuations [1] - **Aluminum**: Recent macro - positives boost the non - ferrous sector, but a large increase in domestic aluminum inventories may drag down prices, and short - term aluminum prices will run strongly with fluctuations [1] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina decreases, but inventories continue to accumulate, and it will run with short - term oscillations [1] - **Zinc**: The escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran raises concerns about Iran's zinc ore supply, boosting zinc prices in the short - term. After the festival, pay attention to the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises [1] - **Nickel**: Geopolitical risks rise, the approval of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is slow, and there are potential issues with the QMB project in the Indonesian IMIP park. Short - term nickel prices may run strongly with fluctuations, but high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Geopolitical risks rise, and there are supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. After the festival, social inventories increase. Stainless steel futures will run strongly with oscillations. Pay attention to the recovery of post - festival demand, and it is recommended to go long on a short - term basis [1] - **Tin**: The escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to war metals, and tin is expected to continue to strengthen. In the short - term with high volatility, investors should focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The sudden escalation of the Middle East geopolitical tension over the weekend has led to a significant increase in risk - aversion sentiment, and precious metal prices are expected to continue to run strongly [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The sudden escalation of the Middle East geopolitical tension over the weekend, combined with the tight short - term platinum spot supply and supply concerns, may lead to a continued strong performance [1] Industrial Silicon - Northwest production increases while southwest production decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decline [1] Lithium Carbonate - Energy storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and there are mining - end disturbances. It is bullish, but the spot has not fully recovered. Observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [1] Steel Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: They are in an oscillatory state. For the hot - rolled coils, look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions established before the festival [1] - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the rise at this position. Policy benefits and cost support are positive for prices [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: In the short - term, supply and demand are weak, and the expectation of supply reduction rises. In the long - term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05. It is recommended that the industry establish positive cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price rises, and wait and see for unilateral trading [1] - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, and the medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, with prices under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Vegetable Oils**: The expected increase in crude oil prices due to the weekend geopolitical events is expected to drive vegetable oil prices up from the biodiesel end. In the short - term, they are treated bullishly, but considering subsequent factors, it is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term [1] - **Cotton**: There is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Corn**: The progress of grain sales in Northeast China is relatively fast, and there is support for feed demand. After the festival, there is a need for inventory replenishment, and the price will run strongly with oscillations. However, be vigilant against potential negative feedbacks and it is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The export and crushing of US soybeans are positive for the US market, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is delayed, and the Middle East situation has escalated, leading to a recent rebound in the soybean meal price. However, the rebound is expected to be limited under the pressure of large global supply, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [1] - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news during the Spring Festival. The previous supply - side positives have basically faded, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short - term. Pay attention to the post - festival port inventory situation [1] - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the overseas market quotation is expected to rise, providing upward driving force for the futures price [1] Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + suspends production increases until the end of 2026, the US - Iran negotiation is uncertain, and the commodity market sentiment is bullish with a recovery in capital risk appetite [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows crude oil in the short - term with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1] - **BR Rubber**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is still in loss, and there is an expected increase in maintenance and production reduction. There is an expected phased accumulation of inventories for both BD and BR. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - **PTA**: Asian aromatics show a structural trend due to geopolitics, some overseas PTA factories face operational pressure, and there will be a major turnover season for refineries from March to May, with expected supply tightening [1] - **Styrene**: Geopolitics and Trump's tariffs disrupt the market. The production economy of factories is stable, and the demand is expected to gradually recover from the end of February [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iran situation, future imports are expected to decrease, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There is a mixture of long and short factors [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions rise, crude oil prices increase, but the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: In 2026, there is less global production capacity, and the differential electricity price in the Northwest region is expected to force the elimination of PVC production capacity, with an optimistic future outlook, but the current fundamentals are poor [1] - **LPG**: The February CP price has risen, the post - festival price trend of PG is strong, but there are factors such as a decline in domestic PDH operating rate and sufficient domestic civil gas supply, with short - term bearish factors on the demand side [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Price increases are generally stable. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop price declines and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - The Middle East situation has become tense due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals, energy, and other commodities [1]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by demand changes and inventory levels [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday night, international gold prices denominated in London gold rose 1.8% to $5277 per ounce, and international silver prices denominated in London silver rose 6.28% to $93.82 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East has increased risk - aversion sentiment. The US PPI has increased more than expected, the US Treasury bond prices have risen, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below 4.0%. There are changes in the inventory of gold and silver in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the domestic market will open higher today. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated and trended slightly stronger yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to an increase in gold and oil prices and a stronger US dollar. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the visible global inventory has increased rapidly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 23,745 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas capacity changes, and the inventory reduction rhythm after domestic downstream resumption of work [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.70% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2744 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants have both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating capacity continues to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the spot circulation of alumina is tight, and the price is stable with a slight increase. In the future, the upward driving force of the alumina price still requires substantial production cuts on the supply side or the implementation of anti - involution policies [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8395 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.72% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 2 last week. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and the output of the silicone industry have increased [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 176,040 yuan per ton, an increase of 2380 yuan, with a closing price increase of 1.37% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate has decreased. The production and demand in March are expected to increase compared with January. The inventory is expected to be reduced in Q1 [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The impact of the US - Iran conflict on lithium is expected to be small. The short - term price increase is mainly restricted by demand concerns, while the low inventory and increased inventory reduction support the price to oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 46495 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is flat, and the industry inventory has increased by 3.5% this week. The downstream prices are stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading manufacturers, the expected resumption of production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a weak oscillation between 45000 - 53000 yuan [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is worried about the supply disruptions in Myanmar and Congo. The downstream demand is good, and the global visible inventory has increased slightly after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3074 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading has not yet picked up, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, and the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory level is still high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 745.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month and is basically the same year - on - year. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The port inventory has increased year - on - year, and there is a structural contradiction [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1078 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent price increase plan. The inventory in each link is differentiated, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Close long positions. Aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 coking coal contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is strong. The global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to the US soybean export and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term but lacks upward driving force in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to strengthen, and corn spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 60%, but the progress is slow. The downstream inventory is low, and the downstream is in a loss state. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The deep - processing industry replenishes inventory, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [6]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected production in Malaysia in February decreased month - on - month, and the export also decreased month - on - month. It is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fats and oils are in a weak cycle. Trade the expected seasonal production increase, but there may be a short - term rebound driven by a sharp increase in crude oil. Use the reverse spread structure. Pay attention to the subsequent production and biodiesel policy [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and egg spot prices were stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and spot prices mostly fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the seasonal pattern, the supply pressure after the Spring Festival is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the low - price spot quotation of LLDPE in North China rose by 50 - 80 yuan per ton, and the market trading volume increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices will undergo spring maintenance. If Iran's supply is interrupted, the import volume to China will decrease. The current downstream demand is weak but is improving month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Pay attention to the development of the US - Iran incident [7][8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4803, an increase of 0.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory and is still oscillating at the bottom. The supply is large, and the demand from downstream factories has not recovered. The social inventory has reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is $932 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA is 5155 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high historical level, and the supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the fundamentals. The mid - term long - allocation view of PX remains unchanged. Pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has a seasonal inventory increase, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is improving. The processing fee has reached a high level, and it is appropriate to take profits [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1050, a decrease of 0.1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is restricted by high inventory, and the price is hovering at the bottom. The supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated again. The downstream demand is weak, and the glass production is in a loss state [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is very low. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the spot price of PP in East China rose by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market trading was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the new device put - into - production in the first half of the year has decreased, and some devices have stopped unexpectedly. The domestic supply is gradually increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream is still on holiday, and the start - up rate is low [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, the new devices put into production in the first half of the year have decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but the contradiction is still large. It is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG is 3621 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 80 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: If Iran's MEG supply is in short supply, it will have a greater impact on the MEG price. From March, MEG devices will have more maintenance, and the polyester demand will pick up, and MEG will start to reduce inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The inventory increase has been fully expected, and inventory reduction may start in March. The current valuation is at a low level, and with geopolitical disturbances, it is recommended to continue to hold long positions [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the outer - market price rose about 7% on Monday morning, and SC is expected to open at the daily limit [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's crude oil production is 3.3 million barrels per day, and the export volume is 1.8 million barrels per day. The conflict may lead to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a significant impact on oil prices. OPEC has sufficient idle capacity to deal with Iran's supply interruption. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to formulate a production plan for April [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The current core of crude oil trading is the Middle East geopolitical risk. It is not recommended to directly participate in futures trading. Enterprises worried about rising oil prices can buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices, and enterprises worried about oil prices falling after rising can buy out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly by 80 yuan per ton on Saturday, and the spot market quotation in East China was 7700 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene and styrene will improve in the second and third months, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months and will improve in the second quarter [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the pure benzene inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand has marginally improved. It will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is stable. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months, but it will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical event. The upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9][10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1189, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is in a stalemate, and the upstream orders are okay. The supply is large, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is stable, and there is still an expectation of production reduction in float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is increasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to short at high prices [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].