所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-09-18 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-09-18 所长 早读 美联储今年首次降息如期落地 观点分享： 今天早上美联储将基准利率下调 25 个基点，正式重启降息，就业市场走弱是主要依据， 整体利率决议和口吻相对符合预期。点阵图方面，2025 年底利率预测中值降至 3.625%，意 味着年内 10、12 月仍将降息，2026 年利率预测较为分散，中值在 3.38%，多数委员意见在 3.63%和今年持平，意味着明年有 1 次降息但空间较小，2027、2028 年利率中值预期皆在 3.13%。SEP 方面，2025-2027 年实际 GDP 同比增速预期为 1.6%、1.8%、1.9%，较上期 有所上提；核心 PCE 同比预期分别为 3.1%、2.6%、2.1%，有所上提，但远期预期相对温和； 失业率预期分别为 4.5%、4.4%、4.3%，年内就业预期较为谨慎。美联储维持缩表，市场预 期在年底暂停 QT。 鲍威尔讲话中，倾向于就业风险，但对通胀并未完全松口。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会 上表示，虽然失业率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增 ...

第一上海发布研报称，维持中国黄金国际（02099）"买入"评级，上调目标价至167.07港元。该行认为，甲玛矿的复产不仅是公司业绩的拐点，更是新一轮增长周期的起点。公司的"三步走"规 公司甲玛矿资源增储潜力巨大，目前公司在则古朗北以及八一牧场的勘探项目正有序推进，目前两个矿区已展示出巨大资源潜力，直至2025年7月8日矿区2公里的连接路以及5.9平方公里的泥土 责任编辑：史丽君 甲玛矿作为公司的"利润奶牛"，其稳定运营是公司价值的基石。甲玛矿二期选厂已于2024年5月30日成功恢复运营，并迅速达到日处理矿石量3.4万吨的稳定水平。上半年公司黄金产量、铜产量 甲玛矿"三步走"扩产规划，中长期增长可见性高 公司管理层近期公布了清晰的甲玛矿"三步走"发展战略。第一阶段，2027年中期从目前3.4万吨恢复到5万吨/天的处理量；第二阶段，正常日处理量从5万吨提升到8万吨，并加大低品位矿石堆 外围勘探有望再造一个甲玛矿 第一上海主要观点如下： 铜金价格景气周期提供强劲东风 ...

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 17 日 铜：美联储决议前，价格谨慎 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 80,870 | -0.09% | 80900 | 0.04% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,117 | -0.71% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 70,647 | 1,776 | 175,014 | -4,242 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 16,815 | -218 | 292,000 | -2,646 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 33,692 | 3,049 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 150,950 | -1,675 | 10.47% | -0.79% ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 16 日 铜：多重逻辑驱动，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 80,940 | -0.15% | 81380 | 0.54% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,189 | 1.24% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 68,871 | -22,685 | 179,256 | -7,620 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 17,033 | -3,558 | 295,000 | 3,191 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 30,643 | 5,083 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 152,625 | -1,325 | 11.25% | -2.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, valued at $53 billion, could create the world's largest copper mine by the early 2030s, surpassing BHP's Escondida mine in Chile [2] Group 1: Merger Details - The merger focuses on integrating Teck's Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine with Anglo American's Collahuasi mine, which together could produce approximately 1 million tons of copper annually [3] - The integration plan includes a 15-kilometer conveyor belt connecting high-grade ore from Collahuasi to QB's processing facilities, expected to deliver an additional 175,000 tons of copper annually from 2030 to 2049 at lower costs and shorter timelines compared to independent development [4] Group 2: Production and Financial Impact - If completed, the merged entity would rank among the top five copper producers globally, with an annual output of 1.35 million tons, compared to Escondida's production of 1.28 million tons last year [4] - The companies anticipate generating $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies, leading to an additional $1.4 billion in EBITDA from shared procurement and operational efficiencies [5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The successful operation of QB is critical, as it has faced issues such as cost overruns, pit instability, plant shutdowns, and waste storage challenges [6] - Analysts emphasize that before the combined facilities can rival Escondida, the operational restoration of QB is essential [7] - Wood Mackenzie estimates Teck's post-tax valuation at $10.8 billion, with $13.8 billion attributed to copper and $1.1 billion to zinc, factoring in potential operational setbacks at QB [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, with capital logic overriding fundamental logic. In the US, economic stagflation risks are accumulating, and large - cap technology stocks are expected to drive the index up. For US Treasury futures, the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. For US stock index futures, they are expected to run strongly with high volatility [1][14][18]. - **Commodity Markets**: In the agricultural products market, the outlook for various products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton is complex, with different influencing factors. In the black metal market, prices of products like coking coal and steel are expected to oscillate. In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are likely to remain high and oscillate, and different non - ferrous metals have different investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations. In the energy and chemical market, prices of products such as crude oil, carbon emissions, and various chemical products also show different trends and investment opportunities [25][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CBO significantly lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.9% in January. The inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.1%, and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.5% by the end of the year. The US consumer confidence index in September decreased, and the long - term inflation expectation rose. The market is expected to run strongly with high volatility [12][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - In August, the new credit scale was lower than expected. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations. The private sector's endogenous financing willingness is still weak, and the M1 growth rate is expected to rise and then fall. The bond market is expected to oscillate and bottom out [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations on the US integrated circuit field. The Ministry of Finance stated that there is still sufficient room for fiscal policy to exert force. The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, and it is recommended to focus on sub - sectors [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio to 45% before moving to 50%. The palm oil market rebounded last week. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil and soybean oil [23][25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 2025/26 sugar - making season in Yunnan may start in mid - to late October. India's sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season remains at 34.9 million tons. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August is expected to increase by 17.3%. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited downside space and may have a weak rebound in Q4 [27][28][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market is stable. Coking coal spot prices are weak, and the supply has recovered. Coke's first - round price cut has been implemented, and the second - round is expected. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton spinning mills' immediate profits have rebounded, but consumption terminal support is insufficient. The USDA's September report shows little change in US cotton supply and demand and a decrease in global inventory. Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate, with limited upside space [34][37][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories have increased. Steel demand has not recovered seasonally as expected, and prices are expected to oscillate due to limited downward space and weak demand [41][43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills'开机 rates remain high. The USDA slightly adjusted down the US soybean yield forecast, and the ending inventory is higher than expected. The future trend of soybean meal depends on Sino - US relations [44][45][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises' profits show regional differences, with losses deepening in the Northeast and narrowing in North China. The futures price difference between rice and flour is expected to remain weak [47][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has increased. The market's speculation on old - crop corn is expected to cool down, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium term [49][50]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the designated red date delivery warehouses. The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather changes and pre - festival replenishment [50][51][52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Canada launched a fast - track review mechanism for major mining projects. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is shut down. Copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading is increasing. It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, paying attention to short - term risks and mid - term short - selling opportunities [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer prices. India lowered the GST on renewable energy components. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate between policy expectations and concentrated cancellations, and it is recommended to focus on option and arbitrage opportunities [59][60][64]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of Xinjiang silicon enterprises has increased. Industrial silicon prices are expected to run between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Two Indonesian mining companies were exposed for "illegal mining". The nickel market is expected to have upward potential, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste lead - acid batteries has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices in the mid - term [70][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread is at a premium. Zinc concentrate port inventories have increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities [74][75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA main contract price is oscillating. The carbon price is expected to run strongly due to the approaching compliance deadline [76][77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased. A drone attacked a Russian port. Oil prices are oscillating, and short - term geopolitical risks should be noted [78][79][80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices have been slightly lowered. The industry is maintaining a 20% production cut, and it is recommended to focus on production cut sustainability and new capacity release [81][83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The utilization rates of downstream styrene industries have increased. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season should be noted [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have dropped. The supply - demand situation is expected to reduce inventory in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [85][86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited [87][88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. PTA is in a stage of neutral inventory, low valuation, and weak drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust [89][90][91]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market is mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly adjusted. The PVC fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [94]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is running weakly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the 2601 contract may decline further in the medium term [95][96]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [96][97]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei is flat. It is recommended to focus on the long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage opportunity [98]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The annual container throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port has exceeded 30 million TEU. The SCFI composite index has decreased. Freight rates are at risk of decline, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [99][100][101].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 15 日 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 81,060 | 1.16% | 80810 | -0.31% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,065 | 0.07% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 91,556 | 26,707 | 186,876 | 12,423 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,591 | 1,459 | 292,000 | 2,464 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 25,560 | 5,532 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 153,950 | -225 | 13.46% | -0.06% | ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Recent copper prices have reached a five-month high due to macroeconomic policy expectations, supply disruptions, and resilient demand [1] - The domestic copper price in Shanghai has also seen fluctuations, with the main contract reaching a peak of 81,100 yuan/ton [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased significantly, with the market pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year [1][2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has halted operations due to an accident, impacting a significant annual output of 297,000 tons [2] - If the Grasberg mine remains closed for one month, it could lead to a reduction of approximately 4.5 million tons of refined copper production [2][3] - The long-term structural issues in global copper mining, such as declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, contribute to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Seasonal demand in traditional consumption areas is expected to support copper prices, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [3] - The demand from the renewable energy sector remains strong, with significant production and sales growth in domestic electric vehicles [3] - Global low inventory levels are also supporting copper prices, alongside expectations of continued strong demand from re-industrialization efforts [5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - Domestic policies tightening on scrap copper are expected to lead to a 5% month-on-month decrease in electrolytic copper production in September [4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision for potential impacts on copper prices [4] - The overall outlook for copper prices remains cautiously optimistic, with potential upward trends supported by macroeconomic policies and demand, despite concerns over future supply [5] Group 5: Corporate Strategies - Major mining companies, including Fortescue Metals Group, are actively exploring new copper assets in response to declining demand for iron ore [6] - Fortescue emphasizes a strategic approach to investments, ensuring long-term benefits while maintaining a healthy balance sheet [6]

Group 1 - In July, Chile's major copper producers reported an increase in output, with Codelco's production rising by 6.4% year-on-year to 118,500 tons [1] - Codelco's cumulative production for the first seven months reached 807,200 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1] - The Escondida mine, operated by BHP, produced 114,800 tons in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a cumulative output of 794,900 tons for the first seven months, up 10.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Collahuasi mine reported a production of only 34,200 tons in July, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 27.2% [1] - Cumulative production for Collahuasi in the first seven months was 223,700 tons, down 32.4% year-on-year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The merger of two major copper mining companies boosts copper prices, and the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to the dual - drive of global green energy transformation and data center construction, while the supply of copper mines is limited [1][2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia and the potential supply interruption may further exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap and support copper prices [3] - The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices were strong. On Wednesday, September 10, 2025, SHFE copper rose slightly. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,790 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day's closing price [1] - The spot market atmosphere is average, with relaxed spot circulation, active shipments by traders, and downstream price - pressing purchases. The spot premium continues to decline, and the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets has fallen [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - Anglo American and Canada's Teck Resources announced a merger on the 9th. If approved by regulatory authorities, it will be the largest global mining merger in more than a decade, with a combined market value of over $53 billion [2] - Driven by global green energy transformation and data center construction, the demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly, but the supply of copper mines is limited. Chinese mining companies are extending into the copper field, and Barrick Gold is investing in two copper projects and changing its name [2] - The Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia has 7 miners trapped underground. The mine has suspended operations for rescue. The 2023 copper production of the Grasberg mining area accounted for 2.5% of the global copper output. If the mine is shut down for more than a week or a month, it will exacerbate the copper concentrate supply gap [3] 3. Market Outlook - The temporary supply interruption of the large - scale Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will have a certain impact on copper prices. The Fed's approaching interest rate cut in September and the long - term strong trend of copper have made the market focus on when copper will break the sideways trend [11]