Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - **Important Information**: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - **Related Information**: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - **Related Information**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - **Related Information**: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - **Related Information**: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - **Important Information**: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - **Related Information**: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - **Strategy**: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - **Related Information**: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - **Important Information**: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The analysis focuses on Freeport (FCX) and Zijin Mining, both leading companies in the copper industry, but at different stages of development. Zijin is characterized as a high-growth company with a strong acquisition culture, while FCX has matured after multiple acquisitions and now emphasizes maximizing existing asset utilization and resilience against cyclical industry fluctuations [1][11] Summary by Sections 1. Selection of Freeport and Zijin Mining as Analysis Targets - Both Freeport and Zijin Mining are recognized as rapidly growing copper giants, with global copper production rankings of 2nd and 4th respectively in 2024. Their compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from 2005 to 2024 are 6% for FCX and 23% for Zijin [18] 2. Mergers and Acquisitions Forge Industry Leaders - Freeport primarily focuses on acquiring companies, especially during periods of strong risk management, while Zijin tends to acquire individual mines based on cost-effectiveness, often during downturns in the market [3][4] - Zijin's acquisitions are mainly financed through self-raised funds, while Freeport often uses a combination of equity and cash for larger acquisitions [3][4] 3. Maturity Phase - After acquiring Phelps Dodge, Freeport's focus shifted from aggressive acquisitions to the application of new technologies and maximizing resource utilization, including plans to utilize waste rock resources for low-cost operations [4] 4. Commonalities and Characteristics of Development - Both companies share a history of strong cash flow, capital market financing, technological innovation, management transformation, and cost reduction strategies [5] 5. Insights on Mergers and Acquisitions - The report discusses the reasons why original owners sell their assets, including poor risk management, market neglect, and financial needs. It also highlights the importance of understanding local cultures and the potential challenges of greenfield projects [6] 6. Performance Metrics - Freeport and Zijin Mining have consistently ranked among the top in terms of net profit and revenue within the industry, with Freeport's copper production reaching 191,000 tons in 2024, making it the second-largest globally [20][22][24]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结： 看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日 ， SHFE 铜收盘价 78930 元 / 吨，环比 5 月 30 日 + 1.0% ； LME 铜收盘价 9671 美元 / 吨，环比 5 月 30 日 + 1.83% 。 （ 1 ）宏观：本周贸易冲突有所缓和，铜价反弹；但贸易冲突对经济负面影响 尚未显现，仍会压制铜价涨幅。（ 2 ）供需：供给端铜矿扰动增加；需求端出口备货效应减弱以及国内逐步进 入淡季，需求有走弱风险，预计铜价短期维持震荡，铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比 +7% ， LME 铜库存环比 -11% （ 1 ）国内港口铜精矿库存： 截至 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the improvement of macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.0% increase from May 30, while LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% [1]. - The report highlights that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may continue to suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are noted, alongside a weakening demand risk due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic market entering a low-demand season [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7.3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 10.7% [2]. - As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons as of June 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.4% [2]. Supply - The report notes that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton as of June 6, 2025, indicating a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week, but remains at a low level historically [3]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,388 RMB/ton as of June 6, 2025, reflecting an increase of 435 RMB/ton from May 30 [2][3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025 [3][4]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a 2% year-on-year increase in household air conditioner production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][4]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 18% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 6.7% [4]. - As of June 6, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 204,000 lots, reflecting a significant increase and indicating strong market interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand. It recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Wanguo Resources [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the improvement in macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, up 1.0% from May 30, and LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% from May 30. The report notes that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are increasing, and demand risks are present as export stocking effects weaken and the domestic market enters a low season. However, copper prices are expected to gradually rise following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 11%. As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week. Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons, down 0.4% week-on-week. LME copper global inventory was 132,000 tons, down 10.7% week-on-week, and SMM copper social inventory was 149,000 tons, up 7.3% week-on-week [2][25]. Supply - The report indicates that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week. In May 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year. The report also highlights that the domestic copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [3][49][70]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025. The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand. Additionally, the report mentions that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2% in household air conditioning production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][79][98]. Futures - As of June 6, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 18% week-on-week, and COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7%. The SHFE copper active contract position was 204,000 lots, reflecting a 18% increase from the previous week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions reached 24,000 lots, up 6.7% week-on-week [4][33]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report notes that as of June 6, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates was 98.2%. The U.S. dollar index was at 99.2031, down 0.24% from the previous week. The report also provides insights into U.S. inflation rates and employment statistics, indicating a stable economic environment that could influence copper demand [4][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [6][110]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that copper prices have risen significantly due to the U.S. increasing tariffs on aluminum and steel, with weekly price changes for London copper, Shanghai copper, and New York copper being +1.60%, +1.71%, and +2.78% respectively [7]. - The report suggests that the short-term outlook for copper prices remains volatile, with a focus on financial attributes such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [7]. - For aluminum, the report notes a continuous reduction in inventory, with aluminum prices maintaining stability despite slight fluctuations [7]. - Lithium prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a significant drop in lithium carbonate and spodumene prices, indicating a potential for future production cuts [7]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to weak demand, but potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo could present rebound opportunities [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a strong performance, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index rising 3.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.61 percentage points [13]. - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is positive, with specific segments like rare earths and new materials performing well [13]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.60%, while Shanghai copper rose by 1.71%. The inventory levels for London copper decreased by 11.66% [27]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margin is currently negative at -2622 yuan/ton, but losses are narrowing [27]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices fell by 0.29%, and Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.10%. The report highlights a decrease in both London and Shanghai aluminum inventories [39]. - The profit margin for aluminum smelting has decreased by 1.86% to 3564 yuan/ton [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased by 1.18% in London and 0.39% in Shanghai, while zinc prices rose by 0.36% in London and 0.11% in Shanghai [51]. - The report indicates that the smelting profit for zinc is stable at 3600 yuan/ton, with mining profits decreasing slightly [51]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices saw a significant increase, with London tin prices rising by 6.23% and Shanghai tin prices increasing by 3.96% [65]. - Nickel prices also experienced growth, with domestic nickel iron enterprises showing increased profitability [65]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on a downward trend, with lithium carbonate prices falling by 0.82% to 60200 yuan/ton and spodumene prices dropping by 7.40% to 626 USD/ton [79]. - The report indicates that the profit margins for lithium smelting are currently negative, suggesting a challenging market environment [79]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices decreasing by 0.43% to 233000 yuan/ton. The report notes potential for recovery based on policy changes in the DRC [91].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve, leading to a potential rise in copper prices. As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 77,600 RMB/ton, down 0.2% from May 23, while LME copper closed at 9,497 USD/ton, also down 0.24% [1]. - Supply-side disruptions in copper mining are increasing, leading to overall tightness. Demand is expected to weaken as the stocking effect in response to tariffs diminishes and the domestic market enters a seasonal lull. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to remain volatile, with a gradual increase expected following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In April, copper scrap imports were 168,000 metric tons, up 7% month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year. Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 796,000 tons, up 2% week-on-week [2][49]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while air conditioning production in August is expected to grow by 2.7% year-on-year [3][77]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9%. As of May 29, 2025, SMM copper social inventory was 139,000 tons, down 0.9% [2][25]. Futures Market Summary - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 19% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7.3% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to rise in 2025. Recommended companies include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with Minmetals Resources as a company to watch [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, awaiting further macroeconomic catalysts. The weekly changes in copper prices are -0.05% for London copper, -0.24% for Shanghai copper, and -3.35% for New York copper. Domestic copper inventory has increased by 7.2% to 106,000 tons [5][22] - Aluminum prices are stable with ongoing inventory depletion. The price of alumina has risen by 2.95% to 3,320 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 0.40% to 20,100 CNY/ton [5][31] - Lithium prices continue to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton. The supply side has not shown significant production cuts yet, which is a major factor suppressing lithium prices [5][72] - Cobalt prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could create rebound opportunities [5][84] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 2.40%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 17.86, down 0.50 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 2.05, down 0.06 [17][20] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.05%, while Shanghai copper prices fell by 0.24%. London copper inventory dropped by 9.02%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 7.22% [22] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.02%, while Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.40%. The inventory of both London and Shanghai aluminum has decreased [31] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell by 1.29%, and Shanghai lead prices decreased by 0.92%. London zinc prices dropped by 0.67%, while Shanghai zinc prices fell by 0.07% [42] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices decreased by 6.80%, and Shanghai tin prices fell by 4.45%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [57] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton, with lithium demand currently in a seasonal downturn [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.68% to 234,000 CNY/ton, with potential for policy changes in the DRC to impact future prices [84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]