Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US tariff increase on semi-finished copper products has limited direct impact on the Chinese copper industry, and it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the Shanghai copper price, but the overall impact is not significant [3][14][35] - The price of copper may mainly show a volatile trend due to various factors such as China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory [35][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In June, affected by the dissipation of the negative impact of tariff policies, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly volatile and weakening trend, with a price range of about 77,650 yuan/ton to 80,780 yuan/ton [7] - The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,555 - 10,020 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products starting from August 1st, while copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to relevant tariffs [11] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Different types of enterprises had different profit changes, and there were also significant differences in profit changes among industries [15][16] - On July 30th local time in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was the fifth consecutive time to maintain the interest rate unchanged [3][35] 3. Supply Side - As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. As of July 25th, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was -4.26 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was -42.73 US dollars/kiloton [17] - As of July 31st, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 78,535 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper was -1,160 yuan/ton [23] 4. Demand Side - As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [26] 5. Inventory Side - As of July 25th, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 11,133 tons from the previous week. As of July 30th, 2025, the LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 12.4%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 2,517 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 500 tons from the previous week [31] 6. Outlook - The factors affecting copper price trends include China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc., with different degrees of influence [34] - Considering various factors, the copper price may mainly show a volatile trend [35][36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations while awaiting the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 25, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,250 CNY/ton, up 1.07% from July 18, while LME copper closed at 9,796 USD/ton, up 0.02% [3] - Domestic copper prices are rising in line with the "anti-involution" sentiment in domestic commodities, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The cable operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline in Q3, indicating weak demand [3] - However, supply from mines and scrap copper remains tight, and with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are expected to rise [3] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 20% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 5% [4] - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 561,000 tons, down 23.2% from the previous week [4] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 449,000 tons as of July 21, 2025, up 5.7% [4] Group 4: Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 125 CNY/ton this week [5] - In March 2025, China's refined copper production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5] Group 5: Smelting and Exports - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The import volume of electrolytic copper in June increased by 18.7% month-on-month, while the export volume surged by 134.2% [7] Group 6: Demand Analysis - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 70.83%, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous week [8] - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in June, lower than the previously expected 11.5% [8] Group 7: Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 31.4% week-on-week, reaching 181,000 lots [9] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2.2% week-on-week, totaling 40,000 lots [9]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：铜价短期震荡 截至2025年7月18日，SHFE铜收盘价78410 元/吨，环比7月11日-0.03%；LME铜收盘价9795 美元/吨，环 比7月11日+1.36%。（1）宏观：美国6月CPI继续反弹，市场预计美联储7月不降息概率为94%，美元短期 或偏强。（2）供需：线缆开工率虽有回升但低于去年同期，7-9月国内空调排产环比下降，需求Q3偏弱； 美国铜套利行为或被提前终止，美国以外铜市场短期面临供应压力，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍 维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求Q4回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4铜价有望上行。 冶炼：TC现货价维持在-43美元/吨附近 1）产量：2025年6月SMM中国电解铜产量113.49 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by tariff policies and supply - demand changes. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, and the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement and waiting - and - seeing [3][5]. - The alumina market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a structurally surplus situation in July, but the spot market still has some support, and the upper pressure on the price rebound is around 3200 yuan [12][16]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The short - term price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range increase or decrease in July [21][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a weak supply - demand relationship. The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to be mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25][27]. - The zinc market has a continuous increase in supply and enters the off - season of consumption. The price is under pressure and may decline [33][34]. - The lead market has limited supply growth and improved consumption. The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [39][40]. - The nickel market is affected by tariff concerns, with weak supply and demand in the off - season. The price is weak and oscillating with cost support [43][44]. - The stainless steel market has poor demand both at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [49][50]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [55][56]. - The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and price transmission. The short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. - The lithium carbonate market has many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [65][66]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, up 0.06%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 12,976 lots to 499,000 lots. In the spot market, the price trends in different regions vary [2]. Important Information - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement on July 15th. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates increased year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [3][4]. Logic Analysis - The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory is increasing, and the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Not provided Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3111 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 8379 lots to 422,200 lots. The spot price increased in different regions [9]. Important Information - There are many aspects of information, including China's central financial meeting, domestic spot transactions, warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [10][11][12]. Logic Analysis - The production capacity is stable, but the output is increasing. The supply - demand pattern is expected to change, and the spot market still has support [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions continue to hold; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract increased by 85 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot price increased slightly in different regions [20]. Important Information - It includes inventory changes, US inflation data, Sino - US trade information, and housing completion data [21]. Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - factors and fundamentals, the price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range change [22]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under short - term pressure and fluctuates; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [23] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 19,820 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 93 lots to 10,075 lots. The spot price remained stable [25]. Important Information - It includes production, cost, profit, and inventory data [25][26]. Logic Analysis - The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [27]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure at a high level and maintains a bearish view; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is more than 400 yuan; Option: Wait and see [30] Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% to 22,030 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 3486 lots to 231,600 lots. The spot market trading is mainly among traders [32]. Important Information - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions when the price is high; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Option: Wait and see [35] Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.65% to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3823 lots to 96,600 lots. The spot market trading is not good [37]. Important Information - Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [39]. Logic Analysis - The supply growth is limited, the consumption is improving, and the short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out in the range; Arbitrage and Option: Not provided [41] Nickel Market Review - The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 increased by 1120 yuan to 120,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,098 lots. The spot premium changed [42]. Important Information - GKEML completed the LME warehouse receipts of three metals, and the US adjusted the tariff on Indonesian goods [43]. Logic Analysis - Affected by tariff concerns, the supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is weak and oscillating [44]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Option: Wait and see [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2508 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 12,670 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 5886 lots. The spot price is in a certain range [48]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of the BIS stainless - steel certification rule, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless - steel products [49]. Logic Analysis - The demand is poor at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [51] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated weakly and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The spot price of some grades increased [52][54]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [55]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand situation in July may be balanced. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [56]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price oscillates weakly and can be bullish after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [53] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose first and then fell, closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The spot price remained unchanged [57][58]. Important Information - China and the EU held an energy dialogue and agreed to continue cooperation in multiple fields [59]. Logic Analysis - Affected by rumors and price transmission, the short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range; Arbitrage: Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon strategy; Option: Wait and see [63] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract increased by 260 yuan to 66,420 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 3318 lots. The spot price increased [64]. Important Information - China adjusted the technology export catalog, and Chilean indigenous groups applied to suspend a lithium - mining cooperation procedure [65]. Logic Analysis - There are many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [66]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait for the right - side short - selling opportunity; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [67][68][70]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non - ferrous Metals Derivatives Daily Report [1][6] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, down 0.26%, and the Shanghai Copper index increased by 2,144 lots to 512,300 lots [2] - Spot: In the East China market, the monthly spread converged significantly, downstream consumption was weak, and the premium opened high and went low; in the Guangdong market, inventory increased for 2 consecutive days, and downstream consumption was inactive; in the North China market, the monthly spread structure reversed on the delivery day, and the spot premium and discount rose sharply, but the trading activity was not high [3] Important Information - GDP: In the first half of the year, the GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year [4] - Imports: In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In June, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [4] Logic Analysis - Tariffs: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st with a rate of 50%. The US's siphoning of refined copper from the world is nearing its end. Before August 1st, in - transit supplies will continue to arrive at ports, and the Comex copper inventory will continue to increase. After that, the supply to the US will decrease significantly, and the supply shortage in non - US regions will be alleviated [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific strategy mentioned - Arbitrage: No specific strategy mentioned - Options: No specific strategy mentioned Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 38 yuan to 3,165 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,337 lots to 413,800 lots [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of Alumina by Aladdin rose 5 yuan to 3,175 yuan; the national weighted index rose 8.6 yuan to 3,210.8 yuan [9] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [10] - Inventory: As of July 15th, the alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 25,526 tons, a net increase of 2,111 tons [11] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: The operating capacity of alumina remained flat week - on - week, but production was still increasing. The supply - demand pattern of alumina in July will gradually evolve from a tight balance to a structural surplus, but the demand for warehouse receipts may disperse the pressure of spot surplus [14] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, high - selling and low - buying within the range [15] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 20,430 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 8,776 lots to 635,800 lots [18] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,510 yuan, up 50 yuan; in South China, it was 20,500 yuan, up 40 yuan; in the Central Plains, it was 20,380 yuan, up 50 yuan [18] Relevant Information - Inventory: On July 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets decreased by 0.3 tons compared with the previous trading day [19] - Industry: In May 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.92GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.03%. From January to May, the cumulative installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 149.97% [19] Trading Logic - Macro: The US tariff negotiation deadline was postponed to August 1st. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings this month [22] - Supply - demand: The negative feedback of the fundamentals is still there. The production of aluminum rods has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, and the ingot casting has increased, driving up the inventory of aluminum ingots in social warehouses. The demand in the off - season may not be too weak [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term, maintaining a bearish mindset [23] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract remained flat at 19,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 31 lots to 9,982 lots [25] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China remained flat at 19,600 yuan/ton, and the imported price remained flat at 19,300 yuan/ton [25] Relevant Information - Production: In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, of which the output of ADC12 increased by 2.46 million tons to 32.6 million tons [25] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 26,680 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from the previous trading day [26] Trading Logic - Supply: Enterprises are generally active in shipping, but actual transactions are blocked. The supply of deliverable products is stable, and non - deliverable product inventory is transferred to social inventory. Raw materials are in short supply [27] - Demand: Downstream die - casting enterprises generally have insufficient orders, mostly replenish inventory in small quantities as needed or consume inventory, and postpone purchases except for rigid demand [27] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Under pressure at high levels, maintaining a bearish mindset [30] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan; consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 400 yuan [30] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [30] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.54% to 22,085 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc index decreased by 1,770 lots to 236,500 lots [31] - Spot: In the Shanghai market, traders continued to actively sell goods. In the morning, the zinc price on the disk dropped, and some downstream enterprises placed orders to pick up goods. Some traders reported that spot transactions had improved [31] Relevant Information - Production: A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a regular maintenance for half a month in August, which is expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production [32] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major markets was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with July 7th [32] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, the domestic zinc supply continues to increase, consumption has entered the off - season, and social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. Zinc prices may be under pressure to decline due to fundamentals [32] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and short positions can still be added at high prices [35] - Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options [35] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [35] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract fell 0.76% to 16,930 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead index increased by 1,494 lots to 96,300 lots [37] - Spot: On July 15th, the average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. Refined lead holders' quotes followed the decline slightly [37] Relevant Information - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major markets was 63,400 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with July 7th [38] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, recycled lead is still in a loss - making situation, and the willingness to start production is difficult to improve. In July, there are maintenance plans for domestic primary lead smelting, which will have a certain impact on primary lead supply. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and the production of battery enterprises has improved [39] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range [40] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [40] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [40] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 fell 1,390 to 119,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 14,499 lots [42] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained flat at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of electrowon nickel remained flat at 100 yuan/ton [42] Relevant Information - Exploration: Canadian Nickel Company announced positive results from its latest exploration drilling at the MacDiarmid project, discovering a new mineralized area [43] - Production: In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4% [43] Logic Analysis - Market: The market's concern about US tariffs has resurfaced, and commodities generally fell overnight. The supply and demand of refined nickel are both weak in the off - season, and the short - term inventory is steadily increasing slightly [45] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weakening in a volatile manner [45] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [46] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [47] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 rose 10 to 12,695 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 11,703 lots [49] - Spot: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel was 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled stainless steel was 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton [49] Relevant Information - Transaction: On July 14th, a stainless steel plant in South China purchased high - nickel pig iron at a price of 900 yuan/nickel point, with a total transaction volume of over 10,000 tons and a delivery period in mid - to - late August [50] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Stainless steel's external demand is restricted by tariffs and re - export obstacles, and domestic demand has also entered the off - season. The demand is not optimistic, and it is difficult to absorb the current inventory pressure [50] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [51] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [52] Group 10: Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 8,785 yuan/ton, up 2.81% [54] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened significantly during the day, generally rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [56] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, the US Department of Commerce launched a 232 - clause investigation into imported drones and their components, as well as polysilicon and its derivatives [57] Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand: The production of leading large - scale factories has been reduced by nearly 40%, with a monthly output reduction of 60,000 tons; southwest silicon factories are gradually resuming production, with a monthly output increase of about 40,000 tons. In July, the output of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons [58] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term [58] - Options: None for now [58] - Arbitrage: Stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [58] Group 11: Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market news, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell during the day, closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [59] - Spot: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network statistics, the spot price of polysilicon was adjusted downward during the day, and the average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg [59] Relevant Information - Market: After SMM's research, the market views and price adjustment trends of the top 5 component factories are divergent. Some leading component enterprises have officially raised the distributed guidance price [60] Comprehensive Analysis - Price: If a fixed price is set as the minimum price limit for the polysilicon industry, the high point of the polysilicon futures price will be the industry's minimum price limit. It is expected that the polysilicon futures price will fluctuate in the range of (37,000, 45,000) in the short term [63] Strategy - Unilateral: Long positions should consider taking profits [64] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [64] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [64] Group 12: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose 140 to 66,100 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 12,117 lots, and the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1 to 11,203 tons [65] - Spot: The SMM - quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 63,300 yuan/ton [65] Relevant Information - Project: On the evening of July 14th, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary's invested company, Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., received a mining license [66] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Recently, there have been many supply - side disturbance news, but it has not had a substantial impact on production. The supply elasticity of domestic lithium salts is still large. In July, the off - season is not weak, and the price is difficult to fall deeply [67] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Avoid risks in the short term and wait for the right - hand short - selling opportunity [70] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [70] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [70] Group 13: Industry Data - Multiple metal varieties' daily data tables are provided, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry Core Insights - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump has led to a significant spike in copper prices, with COMEX copper reaching a historical high of $5.8955 per pound, marking a 17% increase, the largest single-day rise since 1968 [2] - The tariff is expected to have profound implications for both the U.S. and global copper markets, affecting supply chains and pricing dynamics [1][2] - The demand for copper is primarily driven by the power industry, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle sector, construction, home appliances, and electronics [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Tariff on Copper Prices - The 50% tariff on copper imports is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, causing immediate volatility in the global copper market [2] - The COMEX copper price surged to $5.6855 per pound on the announcement date, reflecting a dramatic market reaction [2] Section 2: China's Copper Industry Fundamentals and Tariff Impact - China's copper consumption ranks third among metals, with a strong demand from the power sector and growing needs from the electric vehicle industry [5] - By the end of 2024, China's power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.348 billion kilowatts, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [6] - China's refined copper production is expected to reach 13.644 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [7] Section 3: Reasons for Imposing Copper Tariff - The tariff is aimed at enhancing national security and supply chain resilience, ensuring a stable supply of critical resources [8] - The U.S. aims to boost domestic copper production by making imported copper more expensive, thereby supporting local producers [9] Section 4: Effects of Tariff Implementation - The tariff is likely to exacerbate price volatility in the copper market, with potential increases in global copper prices due to U.S. market dynamics [10] - U.S. manufacturers may face squeezed profit margins due to higher copper costs, impacting their competitiveness [10] - The tariff will lead to a restructuring of global copper supply chains, as major suppliers like Chile, Canada, and Mexico will seek new markets for their exports [11]