1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The latest round of Sino-US trade frictions since October 2025 is expected to have a significantly weaker impact on the market than the "reciprocal tariff" shock in April 2025, and the resulting fluctuations are relatively limited. In the short term, there should not be overly high expectations for Sino-US trade talks, and the uncertainty of subsequent tariff processes remains relatively high [1]. - Due to Trump's increase in tariffs on China, market risk aversion has significantly increased. The short - term shock is expected to cause a significant decline in A - share, but subsequent domestic policy uncertainties and the possibility of Sino - US leader meetings are expected to support the stock market [3]. - Gold and silver are still strong despite increased volatility. The long - term impact of trade tariff conflicts on precious metals is positive, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the relationship between the risk of following the decline under the liquidity trap and the positive impact of the safe - haven attribute [10]. - For copper, the expected supply shortage and the expected negative impact of tariff policies will compete. In the short term, the policy will disrupt the upward rhythm, and the futures price may enter a high - level shock [15]. - For aluminum, the current core factor affecting the price is the macro - situation. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For investors, it is recommended to operate cautiously, with light positions and small stop - losses. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - The overall supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate futures is expected to show a weakening shock trend in the range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [22]. - For industrial silicon, the price center will rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the price increase is limited due to inventory pressure. For polysilicon, the market risk is relatively high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [25]. - For steel products, the current overseas macro - environment is under pressure, and the subsequent development of Sino - US trade negotiations will be the core factor affecting asset prices. Currently, the overall situation is bearish [28]. - For iron ore, the short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [29]. - For coking coal and coke, the second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products [30]. - For ferroalloys, the contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. - For crude oil, Trump's tariff threat has triggered market concerns about the economy and oil demand, and factors such as oversupply and weak demand have further intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, causing the oil price center to shift downward and increasing volatility [33]. - For LPG, the risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, but the decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market [36]. - For PTA - PX, the market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - For methanol, in the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150 [41]. - For PP and PE, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44][46]. - For PVC, the supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - For fuel oil, the supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - For asphalt, due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51]. Summaries by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. After the National Day holiday, the Sino - US trade friction has become the new focus of the market. The current supply - demand policies are advancing in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Since October 2025, Sino - US trade frictions have shown a new round of escalation. This friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the market than in April 2025. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index may exist, but the RMB is expected to remain generally stable [1]. - **Stock Index**: Trump's increase in tariffs has hit market risk appetite. The short - term shock is expected to cause a decline in A - share, but subsequent factors are expected to support the stock market. It is recommended to reduce long positions and manage risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Due to Trump's threat to increase tariffs, the market has entered a risk - aversion mode. It is expected that treasury bond futures will open significantly higher today, but whether they can continue to rise depends on the stock market and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider taking profits on previous long positions [4]. - **Container Shipping**: The increase in US tariffs is negative for the market sentiment. In the short term, the futures price is likely to decline, and a relatively bearish strategy or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong despite increased volatility. Long - term investment funds' positions and inventory have changed. This week, attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously and consider short - term trading opportunities [10][11]. - **Copper**: After Trump threatened to increase tariffs, copper prices fell. The supply shortage expectation and the tariff policy expectation will compete. In the short term, the price may be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels and consider option strategies [12][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, the macro - policy is the core factor affecting the price. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - **Zinc**: The price is suppressed by both the macro - situation and fundamentals. In the short term, a bearish logic is adopted, and an internal - external reverse spread strategy can be considered after the export window opens [18]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They may be affected by tariffs. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is restricted, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of tariffs [19]. - **Tin**: It is expected to experience a short - term correction. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to grow. The futures price is expected to show a weakening shock trend in a certain range [22]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, and the polysilicon market is mainly focused on the establishment of the storage platform in October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. High risks are involved, and cautious participation is recommended [25]. - **Lead**: The macro - uncertainty has increased, and both supply and demand have increased. The price is expected to remain volatile with a certain downward possibility [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the steel market is bearish. The subsequent development of Sino - US trade and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session need to be focused on. It is recommended to buy options to layout for increased volatility [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, the downstream iron - water demand has support, but the steel demand is weak, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [28][29]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: The second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. A unilateral shock approach and a coking coal 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be considered [30]. - **Silicon Iron, Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff threat has caused the oil price to fall to a five - month low. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The oil price center is expected to shift downward, and volatility will increase [32][33]. - **LPG**: The decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market. The risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, and the domestic chemical demand is stable [36]. - **PTA - PX**: The market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment. The price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150. It is recommended to buy a small bottom position at low prices [41]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44]. - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is continuously loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [46]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - **Pure Benzene, Styrene**: The short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - **Asphalt**: Due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51].

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [18] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The 9 - 10 month period is a traditional off - season, with limited capacity regulation and persistent supply pressure, leading to a continuous decline in spot freight rates. However, shipping companies are raising freight rates for the second half of October in preparation for the year - end long - term contract season, and a bottoming - out and recovery trend is likely to form. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has impacted the market, but there is uncertainty about its implementation and whether it can promote the resumption of Red Sea shipping, presenting potential opportunities for an oversold rebound [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The current freight rate spot is continuously falling due to the traditional off - season and supply pressure. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October, and a recovery trend may form. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, with uncertainty about its implementation and Red Sea resumption, and there may be oversold repair opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - From September 22 to 26, China's export container transport demand weakened, and the comprehensive index continued to decline. European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all saw a decline in freight rates. A cease - fire agreement was announced by Hamas, but there are contradictions in reports, and there are still major differences between Israel and Hamas. Negotiations are ongoing, and the Houthi armed forces launched suicide drones at Israel [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From September 29 to October 6, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 1120.49 to 1046.5, a decline of 6.6%. The SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 921.25 to 876.82, a decline of 4.8% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures on October 10, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. of different contracts such as EC2510, EC2512 [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Market Impact**: The global multi-asset market has experienced significant declines due to rising risk aversion stemming from U.S. export controls on Boeing aircraft parts and increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to the largest single-day and weekly drops in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices since April [1][2][4]. - **Oil Price Decline**: Oil prices have plummeted, with Brent crude and WTI reaching their lowest levels since May, at $62 and $58 respectively, primarily due to improved expectations of oil supply stability following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1][5][4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Boeing and Chinese Airlines**: The U.S.-China trade war may position Boeing aircraft and parts as key negotiation points, potentially leading to delays in deliveries to Chinese airlines, which currently hold at least 222 Boeing aircraft orders [1][6][7]. - **Airline Sector Performance**: The increase in passenger load factors during the National Day holiday and the drop in oil prices are favorable for airline stocks, with recommendations for Huaxia Airlines and major Hong Kong banks [1][6][7]. - **Shipping Industry**: The initial impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on goods trade may paradoxically benefit shipping rates due to potential stockpiling after a short-term decline in imports, with COSCO Shipping recommended as a core investment [1][8]. Sector Analysis - **Express Delivery Industry**: A price increase in express delivery services in Henan signals the start of a second wave of price hikes, with expectations for similar increases in other regions ahead of the Double Eleven shopping festival. Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express are recommended [3][10]. - **Chemical Industry**: Chemical product prices have slightly decreased due to the trade war, with a focus on resource-based fertilizers and agricultural chemicals for growth opportunities. Berkshire Hathaway's acquisition of a chemical division indicates investment potential in leading chemical firms [3][11]. - **Coal Industry**: Coal demand has exceeded expectations, with long-term contracts priced higher than spot prices, indicating strong winter replenishment demand. Companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their high dividend yields [3][19]. Additional Insights - **Trade War Effects on Logistics**: The trade war's impact on logistics and shipping may create volatility, but it also presents opportunities for investment in companies less affected by U.S.-China tensions, such as JIAYOU International and Jitu Express [1][9]. - **Chemical Sector Recovery**: The chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with price increases anticipated in October. Key players like Sanyou Chemical and Zhongtai Chemical are recommended for investment [11][13][17]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: The market for agricultural chemicals is showing signs of recovery, with price increases expected for glyphosate and potassium fertilizers, suggesting investment in leading firms like Xingfa Group and Jiangshan Chemical [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the cycle sector rising strongly, but there was also a phenomenon of rising and then falling. The bond market also had a good start, and the futures of various bond varieties warmed up. Different commodity futures showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed according to the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and external factors of each variety [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market had a positive start, with the technology main line remaining active. It is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of around 6800 on MO2511 on dips to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the long - holiday, the bond market had a positive start. The 10 - year Treasury bond has investment value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The T2512 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low levels, and after the volatility of options peaks, out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices. For silver, pay attention to whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated. In the non - delivery months of October - November, the upward trend may ease, and long positions should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market may gradually trade on the peak - season expectation, and it is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [2]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The steel price remained stable during the holiday. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread when it is high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbance increased during the holiday, and the iron ore is expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 760 - 830, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the holiday, the coal price in the production area was weak. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1080 - 1240, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage problem continues, and long positions should be held. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market supply is sufficient, and the main contract runs in the range of 2850 - 3050. The macro - economy boosts the aluminum price, and the main contract reference range is 20700 - 21300. The price of waste aluminum is firm, and the main contract reference range of aluminum alloy is 20200 - 20800 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory accumulation in London zinc. The main contract reference range is 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: The macro - economy boosts the price, and the main contract reference range is 120000 - 126000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates and strengthens slightly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200. The stainless - steel price fluctuates and weakens, and the main contract reference range is also 12600 - 13200 [2]. Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The easing of the Middle East situation reduces the geopolitical risk premium, and the short - term loose supply - demand situation suppresses the oil price, which is expected to be weak [2]. - **Urea**: The large inventory accumulation suppresses the price. It is recommended to go short on the single - side, and the short - term support level is 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton. For options, after the implied volatility rises, reduce the position when the price is high [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil - price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the November contract and look for opportunities to short on the rebound, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves but is still weak in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the support at around 4500, and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. The processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and it is recommended to increase the position at low levels, but the driving force is limited [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectation weakens in the fourth quarter, and the bottle - chip is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation channel. The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trading was light during the holiday, and the inventory accumulated. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **PVC**: The spot - purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is loose, and the price - driving force is limited. The 2603 contract is expected to fluctuate with styrene and the oil price in the short term [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short on the rebound of the November contract and increase the position when the EB - BZ spread is low [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the holiday, the natural - rubber price rebounded, driving the BR price up. It is recommended to go long on NR2512 and short on BR2512 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The post - holiday trading volume increased, and the basis strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2]. - **PP**: The PDH profit was greatly repaired, and the trading improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthened, and the trading was okay. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price rebounded steadily, and the domestic price is under supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 2900 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Pig**: The breeding side increased the slaughter, and the supply pressure was released. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Corn**: The supply increased gradually, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Edible Oils**: The domestic edible - oil price on the continuous contract rose after the holiday. The main contract of palm oil may continue to rise to 9700 in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually on the market, and the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. - **Egg**: The post - holiday demand weakened, and the price is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract when the price is low and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage opportunity [2]. - **Apple**: The price of high - quality apples is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is not high. The main contract runs around 8500 [2]. - **Jujube**: As the picking time approaches, the long - short game intensifies. The price is bearish in the medium - long term [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to be weak after the holiday. It is recommended to short on the rebound [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the post - holiday price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. - **Rubber**: The raw - material price in Thailand is strong, and the rubber price rose after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The output continues to increase, and the price is under pressure and fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - **Polysilicon**: There may be new progress in the supply - side contraction, and the price rose at the end of the session. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with strong support at 50,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are continuous supply - side news, and the fundamentals maintain a tight balance. The main - contract price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical easing and shipping companies' announcements, the spot market is gradually entering the peak season. Under the game of the two factors, it is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate greatly. A cease - fire does not mean resumption of navigation. It is expected that the contract for December will operate strongly, and the contracts in 2026 carry greater risks. Before a clear signal of geopolitical easing emerges, the contract for February may follow the spot market more closely [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1119.9, 1688.0, 1406.0, 1119.9, and 1277.5 respectively, with fluctuations of 0.84%, - 2.53%, - 14.41%, - 10.7%, and - 13.05% [1]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 15562, 41507, 12789, 6566, and 990 respectively, and the open interests are 21030, 24222, 8743, 11087, and 1370 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 5752, 3451, 209, 1856, and 471 [1]. - **Futures Month - spread**: The month - spreads of EC2510 - 2512 and EC2512 - 2602 are - 568.1 and 282.0 respectively, with daily - on - daily changes of 53.2 and 192.9, and weekly - on - weekly changes of 69.9 and 190.0 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Index - **Index Data**: The SCHIS index on October 6, 2025, is 1046.5 points, down 6.60% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on September 26, 2025, is 971 US dollars/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the CCFI (European line) is 1401.91 points, down 4.69% from the previous period; the NCFI is 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 40 - 41**: The average quotation is 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quotes 1400 US dollars, PA quotes 1300 - 1500 US dollars, YML quotes 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quotes 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Week 42**: The announced price increase is to 1800 - 2000 US dollars. On Thursday, MSK announced a price increase for the European line in November, with the price rising to 1625 US dollars for a 20 - foot container and 2500 US dollars for a 40 - foot container, equivalent to 1740 points on the futures market [2]. 3.4 Related News - **Israel - Hamas Cease - fire**: On October 10, the Israeli government approved the Gaza cease - fire agreement, but some far - right officials voted against it. The Houthi armed forces said they would closely monitor the implementation of the cease - fire agreement [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, superhard materials, etc., with rare earth - related items being the focus, and the controls will take effect on November 8 [7]. - The silver price reached a new high, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue, but attention should be paid to the results of the US tariff investigation and the possible release of invisible silver inventories [8]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), a 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly, the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has divergence on resumption of navigation, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - For nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricts each other, and the nickel price may continue to fluctuate within a range, but if the contradiction on either side intensifies in the fourth quarter, the volatility of Shanghai nickel will increase [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Reading Highlights - **Silver**: The price hit a record high of $51.221, mainly due to tight overseas spot supply, potential 232 - clause tariff investigations, and the transfer of London silver inventory to New York. The silver rental rate is at a historical high, and the upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the US tariff investigation results and the release of invisible inventories [8]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: A 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 points. The probability of full resumption of navigation in December and January next year is low, and the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has opportunities after over - decline, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian nickel mine issues increase supply concerns, but global refined nickel inventory is accumulating, and the market has expectations of slowdown in implicit restocking. The short - term long - short contradictions restrict each other, and the nickel price may fluctuate within a range [10][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continued to reach new highs, with the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract closing at 914.32 yuan, up 7.24% [15][20]. - **Silver**: Approached the $50 mark, with the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract closing at 11169 yuan, up 5.54% [15][20]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise in the US dollar limited price increases. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,750 yuan, up 4.38% [15][24]. - **Zinc**: Had a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22315 yuan, up 2.25% [15][27]. - **Lead**: Inventory increase restricted price recovery, with the Shanghai Lead main contract closing at 17115 yuan, up 1.03% [15][30]. - **Tin**: Accelerated upward, with the Shanghai Tin main contract closing at 287,090 yuan, up 4.75% [15][33]. - **Aluminum**: Fluctuated within a range, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closing at 21090 yuan [15][37]. - **Alumina**: Trended weakly, with the Shanghai Alumina main contract closing at 2875 yuan [15][37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][37]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricted each other, and the price may fluctuate within a range [15][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand and cost factors restricted each other, and the steel price fluctuated [15][40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: De - stocking accelerated, and it fluctuated. The 2511 contract closed at 73,340 yuan [15][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream resumed production, and a short - selling strategy at high prices was recommended [15][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news fermented again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [15][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it trended strongly and fluctuated, with the I 2601 contract closing at 790.5 yuan, up 1.28% [15][54]. - **Rebar**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - **Coke**: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][66]. - **Coking Coal**: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][67]. - **Log**: Fluctuated repeatedly [15][69].

Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic landscape shows distinct characteristics in consumption and industrial policy, with a shift towards rational travel decisions during the National Day holiday, as overall travel intensity was lower than during the May Day holiday [1][6] - The tourism market is evolving towards diversification and personalization, with traditional attractions losing some popularity while niche tourism options like "inter-provincial border tours" and "border tourism" are gaining traction [1][6] - The expansion of visa-free travel has stimulated outbound tourism, reflecting the release of domestic residents' international travel demand and the positive effects of national tourism opening policies [1][6] Foreign Macro - During the National Day holiday, the U.S. ADP employment and services PMI data were weaker than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [1][13] - The U.S. services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in business activity and new orders, which may impact global market sentiment [1][13] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and demand for risk hedging against the dollar [2][17] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of continued market easing following the initial interest rate cuts [2][17] Oil Market - International oil prices fluctuated during the holiday, ultimately stabilizing around pre-holiday levels, influenced by ongoing supply increases and insufficient demand [2][18] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a focus on maintaining market share amid competitive pressures [2][18] Film Industry - The National Day box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with several films surpassing 100 million yuan in ticket sales, indicating a strong recovery in cultural consumption [8] - The diversity of content, including various genres, has driven demand, with family-oriented films performing particularly well [8] Industrial Policy - The release of growth stabilization plans by seven major industries before the holiday marks a significant shift towards quality and efficiency improvement rather than mere scale expansion [11] - The focus on supply-demand balance and the integration of artificial intelligence aligns with current technological trends, promoting high-end and intelligent industrial development [11] Overall Economic Outlook - The current domestic macroeconomic environment is characterized by structural optimization and diversified demand in consumption, alongside a commitment to high-quality development in industrial policy, which together create a favorable environment for economic growth [12][12] Key Commodity Trends - LME copper prices rose by 2.85% during the holiday, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and ongoing tightness in the copper market [19] - LME zinc prices increased by 3.7%, supported by declining inventories and stable processing fees [19] - LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance and positive macro sentiment [20] Agricultural Products - U.S. cotton prices weakened during the holiday due to market information delays caused by the government shutdown, while domestic cotton prices face pressure from new crop expectations [21] - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory levels [22] Shipping Industry - During the National Day holiday, shipping rates increased significantly, with major shipping lines raising prices for the second half of October [48] - The market is expected to enter a phase of competition for the year-end peak season, with attention on the impact of shipping rate adjustments [48]

1. Report Information - Report Title: European Line Container Shipping Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - September to October is the traditional off - season, and the capacity regulation is limited with supply pressure remaining. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, raising freight rates in the second half of October. Although the announced price increase may not be fully implemented, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form. The escalating Middle East situation is also expected to support far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [7][26]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 9 - month Market Review - Spot freight rates were still in a downward channel in September, but there were signs of price support. Due to the off - season for shipments and sufficient capacity supply, shipping companies faced greater pressure to attract cargo and continuously lowered freight rates. The online spot freight rate for large containers dropped to a low of $1400 in late September. Futures prices followed the decline, with the October contract hitting a low of 1046 points. However, at the end of the month, shipping companies began to promote long - term contracts for the end of the year and announced price increases for late October, boosting the expectations of far - month futures contracts, and the December contract showed obvious recovery. Overall, EC futures first declined and then recovered, with significantly improved expectations for far - month contracts [10]. - The trading data of European line container shipping futures in September shows that different contracts had different price trends and trading volumes. For example, the EC2510 contract had a monthly decline of 12.34%, while the EC2512 contract had a monthly increase of 12.40% [11]. 4.2 Freight Spot Quote Situation - Most freight rates for the second half of October were raised to over $2000. As the long - term contract season approaches, shipping companies are raising freight rates. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's large - container price in the third week of October started at $1810 and reached a maximum of $1911. Mainstream shipping companies such as CMA CGM, OOCL, Evergreen, ONE, and HMM had large - container quotes in the range of $1400 - $1620 in the first half of the month and $2000 - $2220 in the second half, with an increase of about $600. However, the overall loading forecast rate after the National Day holiday was low, and the price increase may not be implemented. Attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow to form a price - increasing force [15]. 4.3 Container Shipping Supply - Demand Analysis 4.3.1 Demand Side - China's exports showed marginal slowdown in August, but leading indicators improved in September. In August, China's total exports were $321.81 billion, with a year - on - year growth of 4.4%, and the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. The main reasons for the weakening of exports were the implementation of tariffs and the cooling of "rush - to - export." In September, the new export order index rebounded by 1 percentage point, and the BDI index increased significantly compared with August, indicating the resilience of external demand [16]. - The economic sentiment in Europe improved in September but was severely differentiated in structure, with potential downward risks in long - term demand. The EU economic sentiment index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 95.5% in September, and the preliminary value of the S&P Eurozone composite PMI improved to 51.2%. However, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, back below the boom - bust line. Germany's service industry grew rapidly, but the manufacturing industries in Germany and France declined significantly. Overall, although the current comprehensive demand in Europe has improved, the structural differentiation may lead to the unsustainability of the improvement, and the support from the demand side for freight rate increases is limited [18]. 4.3.2 Supply Side - In terms of potential capacity, since July 2024, new container ship orders globally have increased significantly. The number of shipbuilding orders on hand and the completion volume are significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the number of container ship orders on hand has continued to grow at a high rate this year, with the growth rate accelerating in August. It is expected that container shipping capacity will continue to grow at a relatively high rate with the continuous delivery of new ships [20]. - In terms of actual capacity, the number of blank sailings increased in October, with the weekly average capacity dropping to about 250,000 TEU, but it was still at a relatively high level in the off - season. The capacity regulation was not strong, and the weekly average capacity in November is expected to rise to about 286,000 TEU, indicating long - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will further increase blank sailings to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season [20]. - The Israel - Palestine conflict in the Red Sea is intensifying. The military confrontation between Israel and the Houthi rebels continued in September. The probability of continued detours in the Red Sea this year is high, and it is unlikely to bring additional capacity supply pressure [22]. 4.4 Outlook - September to October is the traditional off - season, and the capacity regulation is limited with supply pressure remaining. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, raising freight rates in the second half of October. Although the announced price increase may not be fully implemented, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form. The escalating Middle East situation is also expected to support far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [26].