智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，美国国会近日通过2026财年国防授权法案，其中纳入修订版 《生物安全法案》相关条款，中国创新药产业长期竞争力仍受看好。建议关注CXO板块，并留意创新 药海外临床进展。 中国创新药产业已经体现出长期向好的发展趋势，并在近年集中体现在BD交易的爆发式增长。值得注 意的是，对于大部分国产创新药，对外授权通常只是全球开发的起点，合作伙伴在海外的开发进度，以 及后续全球临床数据的读出可以进一步加强产品在全球市场商业化的确定性。 投资策略：推荐关注CXO板块。2025年12月投资组合：A股：迈瑞医疗、药明康德、爱尔眼科、新产 业、惠泰医疗、开立医疗、澳华内镜、艾德生物、爱博医疗、金域医学、鱼跃医疗、南微医学；H股： 康方生物、科伦博泰生物-B、和黄医药、康诺亚-B、三生制药、药明合联、爱康医疗、威高股份。 风险提示：研发失败风险；商业化不及预期风险；地缘政治风险；政策超预期风险。 国信证券主要观点如下： 《生物安全法案》获参、众议院通过，关注CXO板块投资机会 美国时间12月17日，美国参议院以77票赞成、20票反对的表决结果，通过2026财年国防授权法案 （2026NDAA）。此 ...

Core Insights - The report recommends focusing on the CXO sector within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, highlighting its global competitiveness and long-term growth potential [6][4] - The investment strategy maintains an "outperform" rating for the sector, with a specific portfolio of recommended stocks for December 2025 [2][6] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry saw a cumulative revenue of 199.55 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, while total profits decreased by 3.5% to 26.98 billion yuan [10][9] - The retail sales of Western and Chinese medicines reached 595.5 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 1.5% year-on-year [10][9] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment portfolio for December 2025 includes notable A-shares such as Mindray Medical (迈瑞医疗), WuXi AppTec (药明康德), and Aier Eye Hospital (爱尔眼科), among others [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the clinical progress and data readouts of innovative drugs in overseas markets, as these factors can enhance the commercial viability of domestic products [6] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 3.62% in November 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.16% [11] - The medical services sub-sector faced the most significant drop, with a decrease of 7.77%, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector saw a slight increase of 1.27% [17][11] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is relatively high, with a current PE (TTM) of 37.71, placing it at the 79.87 percentile of its historical range over the past five years [19][20] - The premium rates of the pharmaceutical sector compared to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market remain at historical averages [19][20] Recent Developments - In November 2025, eight innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including products from Pfizer and domestic companies, indicating a robust pipeline for new therapies [25][26] - The report tracks the NDA and IND applications for innovative drugs, highlighting ongoing research and development activities within the industry [27][28]

Group 1: Overview of the Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry maintained stable revenue around 2.45 trillion yuan from 2023 to 2025, with quarterly revenue stabilizing at approximately 600 billion yuan [1][15] - The biotech sector is expected to achieve over 100 billion yuan in sales by 2025, marking it as a significant growth segment within the pharmaceutical industry [2] - The overall revenue for the pharmaceutical industry in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [15][19] Group 2: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The innovation drug sector has shown remarkable performance, with biotech companies experiencing over 70% revenue growth in 2023 and 2024, and maintaining around 42% growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [20][21] - The CXO industry is the fastest-growing sub-sector in terms of profit, with a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [20] - The total transaction value for license-out deals in the innovation drug sector reached 920 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, providing significant cash flow for domestic innovation drug companies [3][20] Group 3: International Expansion - The global market for innovative drugs is expanding, with license-out transactions expected to exceed 100 billion USD in 2025, capturing nearly half of the global pharmaceutical business development transaction volume [2] - The export of medical devices from China has shown a recovery trend, with a total export value of 355.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.8% [4][7] Group 4: Blood Products Sector - The blood products industry is characterized by high barriers to entry and a stable pricing structure, with the top six companies accounting for 80% of domestic plasma collection [8] - Despite short-term supply-demand disturbances, the blood products sector remains a stable segment within the pharmaceutical industry [8][22] - The industry is currently experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, leading to increased market concentration [8] Group 5: Medical Devices - The domestic medical device bidding market showed a significant recovery, with a total market size exceeding 80 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.75% [4] - The recovery in international markets has also contributed to the growth of medical device exports, which are expected to continue their upward trend [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 51.9% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.3%. However, there has been a recent correction of 14% in the healthcare index, which is viewed as a rebalancing of valuations and expectations, creating better investment opportunities [1][3]. - The long-term trend of Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets is expected to continue, driven by competitive advantages such as higher early-stage R&D efficiency, faster clinical recruitment, and lower clinical costs. The focus for 2026 will be on the clinical progress and data release of pipelines that have already entered international markets [3]. - The impact of the recently enacted "Biological Security Act" on Chinese CXO companies is anticipated to be limited, as it does not affect Medicaid and Medicare procurement and has clear definitions regarding related parties. The revenue from U.S. government agencies for Chinese CXO companies is relatively small [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The recent industry correction is attributed to profit-taking and the market digesting previously high valuations, particularly in the innovative drug sector. This adjustment is seen as a rebalancing of valuations and performance, leading to more attractive investment opportunities [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of products that have already entered international markets, as their clinical trials and data releases will serve as key catalysts for stock prices in 2026 [3]. Company Ratings and Valuations - The report recommends buying the following companies: - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical (1530 HK)**: Market cap of $8,178 million, target price of $37.58, with a potential upside of 44% [2]. - **Gusongtang (2273 HK)**: Market cap of $924.7 million, target price of $44.95, with a potential upside of 52% [2]. - **WuXi AppTec (2268 HK)**: Market cap of $10,782.4 million, target price of $74.00, with a potential upside of 6% [2]. - **China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK)**: Market cap of $15,842.2 million, target price of $9.40, with a potential upside of 43% [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [32] Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued the "Guidelines for the Establishment of Pricing Projects for Pathological Medical Services (Trial)," which aims to systematically reshape existing pathological pricing projects, focusing on biopsy sampling, sample processing, slice replication, pathological staining, and diagnosis, establishing 28 pricing projects, 3 additional charges, and 2 expansion items. This refined pricing is expected to promote high-quality development in pathology and create new scenarios for the application of artificial intelligence-assisted technologies [4] - The guidelines will standardize the charging for digital pathological slices, solidifying the data foundation for large-scale applications of new scenarios. It includes "providing digital images of pathological slices" as an essential item for various pathological services, reflecting the costs of related resource consumption in pricing [4] - The guidelines also explore suitable forms to respond to the charging demands of artificial intelligence assistance, promoting the early application of AI in the pathology field by including "AI-assisted diagnosis" as an expansion item in the pricing structure [4] - The establishment of separate pricing projects for pathological diagnosis and sample testing emphasizes the value of technical services and supports precise medication guidance [4] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich pipeline layouts, such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and China National Pharmaceutical Group. It also highlights companies with significant single-product potential and price revaluation prospects, such as 3SBio, Kaineng Technology, and Qianhong Pharmaceutical. Additionally, it recommends companies leading in cutting-edge technology platform layouts, such as Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Yuanda Pharmaceutical, and Kelun-Biotech [6] - In the CXO sector, it notes that R&D investment in pharmaceuticals is steadily increasing, and the innovation environment is expected to improve, suggesting attention to companies like WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and Boteng Co. [6] - For upstream companies, it indicates that quality enterprises are entering a harvest period with overseas layouts, recommending attention to Aopumai, Baipusais, and Baiyao [6] - In the medical device sector, it mentions that ongoing procurement will continue to advance, with equipment companies gradually digesting channel inventory, suggesting attention to Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and Kaili Medical [6] Industry News - The report highlights several key developments in the industry, including Takeda's TYK2 drug achieving positive results in Phase III studies, Baiyatai's anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody application for market approval, Sanofi's innovative therapy for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy receiving domestic approval, and Enhertu (Trastuzumab Deruxtecan) gaining FDA approval for a new indication [8][12][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The healthcare sector in mainland China has experienced a pullback due to the results of national medical insurance drug price negotiations and subsequent profit-taking, but the fundamentals remain unchanged, presenting a good entry opportunity for 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The trend of innovative drug licensing is expected to continue, with multiple potential targets and drug forms anticipated to bring new licensing opportunities next year [1] - Key global Phase III clinical data readings for these licensed assets will be crucial for market sentiment and warrant close attention [1] - Geopolitical concerns regarding China's pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing industry (CXO) have peaked, and a stable medical policy environment in China is expected to continue supporting innovation [1] Group 2: Market Recovery - A more moderate drug procurement policy is expected to drive a recovery in the medical device and diagnostics sectors [1] Group 3: Stock Preferences - The company prefers biotechnology and CXO stocks, with top picks including Innovent Biologics (01801), Kelun-Biotech (06990), WuXi AppTec H-shares (02359), WuXi AppTec A-shares (603259.SH), and WuXi Biologics (02268) [1] - The target price for Innovent Biologics has been slightly raised from HKD 110 to HKD 111, maintaining a "Buy" rating, while the target price for WuXi Biologics has increased from HKD 74 to HKD 82, also with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. midterm election pressures, defense demands in Europe and Japan, and China's focus on stable growth, leading to continued policy easing in the first half of the year [2] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and stock valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence [2] - The report suggests that the second half of 2026 may see a rebound in inflation due to global liquidity easing, a weaker dollar, and China's anti-involution efforts, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [2] Industry Outlook Chinese Internet Software - 2026 is seen as a critical year for competing for user attention in the AI era, with a focus on lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [2] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [5] Semiconductor - The report maintains four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [7] Technology - The global tech industry is expected to experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-user AI products [8] - Key companies to watch include Apple, which is anticipated to have a year of innovation with new AI products [8] Consumer Sectors Essential Consumption - The report identifies three main investment themes: deepening consumption stratification, focusing on essential survival needs, and leveraging overseas expansion to hedge against domestic uncertainties [10][20] - Companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages, are recommended due to their stable demand and attractive valuations [21] Discretionary Consumption - The outlook for the discretionary consumption sector is cautious, with expected retail sales growth of about 3.5% in 2026, slightly down from 4% in 2025 [11] - The report suggests a focus on survival-type consumption and low-cost emotional comfort products, with recommendations for companies like Luckin Coffee and Bosideng [11][21] Automotive - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to show resilience despite pressures from subsidy reductions and tax incentives, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable [12] - Key trends include intensified competition and the introduction of new models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals, but future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone achievements [13] - The CXO industry is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by a rebound in domestic R&D demand [13] Real Estate - The report forecasts a continued contraction in the real estate market, with total residential sales expected to decline by 8% in 2026 [16][17] - Investment themes include focusing on stock market service providers and companies with strong operational capabilities in commercial assets [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in two major sectors of Hong Kong stocks: internet and innovative pharmaceuticals, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) rising by 1.5% [1] - Key stocks such as WuXi Biologics increased by over 6%, and WuXi AppTec rose by over 4%, while Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba experienced slight increases [1] - After three months of adjustment, the crowdedness in these two core sectors has returned to low levels, with recent catalysts for growth including Tencent's release of the mixed reality model and Baidu's Kunlun chip accelerating towards an IPO, projected to exceed 2 billion yuan in revenue by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The passing of the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026 on December 18 is seen as beneficial for CXO companies like WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec, as the new version of the biosafety law does not specifically name any companies [1] - Improved relations between the two countries have also boosted market risk appetite [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) tracks the National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, which has reduced exposure to consumer retail while increasing allocation to biopharmaceuticals and hardware equipment, allowing for greater index elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector experienced a rebound on December 19, with significant gains in biotechnology stocks, particularly benefiting from the recent passage of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (2026 NDAA) in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Biotechnology and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Indexes led the gains, with WuXi Biologics rising over 5% and WuXi AppTec increasing more than 4% [1] - Other notable performers included Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, both of which saw increases exceeding 2% [1] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The new version of the U.S. bioterrorism law did not specifically name any companies, which is seen as a significant positive for Chinese CXO companies, including WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, that have been under pressure from previous regulations [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There are low-positioning opportunities in related ETFs covering Hong Kong CXO leaders, specifically the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.SZ) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) [1]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovation drug sector is expected to be the main focus, with particular attention on small nucleic acid technology and its accelerated development by 2026 [1][2] - The pharmaceutical industry is driven by supply creating demand, with significant trends observed from 2018 to 2024, including breakthroughs in PD-1, ADC technology, and new generation immunotherapy [2] - Key companies to watch in the pharmaceutical sector include Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others involved in small nucleic acid and weight loss drug development [2] Group 2: CXO and Upstream Life Sciences - The CXO sector is expected to see continued improvement in fundamentals and valuation recovery, with a focus on companies like WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical [3] - Upstream life sciences are benefiting from improved domestic research conditions, with companies like BGI Genomics and Bidu Pharmaceutical showing positive performance trends [3] - The raw material drug sector is entering a bottom price range, with companies that have quality clients and orders likely to see improved profit margins [3] Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is anticipated to benefit from improved hospital demand and inventory optimization, with a potential turning point in 2026 [4] - High-value consumables are expected to gain from collective procurement, enhancing domestic production capabilities [4] - Key players in the medical device sector include Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and others [4] Group 4: Healthcare Consumption - The healthcare service sector is under pressure in 2025, but a mild recovery is expected in 2026, particularly in essential medical services and products [5] - Traditional Chinese medicine is projected to stabilize and grow, with a focus on OTC and prescription drug innovations [5] - The pharmacy sector is experiencing increased concentration due to regulatory changes, with companies like Yifeng Pharmacy and Dazhong Pharmacy showing improved performance [5]