1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The surge in non - bank deposits is not simply due to "deposits entering the market." It is influenced by government fiscal funds, enterprise "manual interest compensation" policy changes, and the transfer of residents' excess net savings [17][18]. - The current equity market rally may have some sustainability. If the A - share market rises steadily, about 3.3 trillion yuan of residents' "excess net savings" may continue to transfer, with 0.49 - 0.82 trillion yuan potentially entering the equity market [5][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Non - bank Deposits Surge is Not Simply "Deposits Entering the Market" - In August 2025, the newly - added household deposits were only 110 billion yuan, the lowest in the same period in the past decade. In contrast, the newly - added non - bank financial institution deposits were 1180 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the seasonal level for two consecutive months [19]. - The view of "deposits entering the market" has methodological flaws, as the "household deposits/A - share total market value" ratio is affected by stock price changes and ignores data seasonality [19][21]. - The seasonal fluctuations of household deposits are mainly due to seasonal consumption demand and bank deposit assessment at the end of the half - year. The seasonal fluctuations of non - bank deposits are related to bank MPA assessments and the scale increase of bank wealth management products [21][25]. 3.2 Support Factor from the Government: Lubrication Effect of Active Fiscal Fund Allocation - As of August 2025, the balance of fiscal deposits was 7.8 trillion yuan. Fiscal deposits are mainly affected by broad fiscal revenues and expenditures and government bond net financing [30]. - In 2025, fiscal front - loading provided sufficient funds for government deposits. However, fiscal revenue showed a situation of "high financing, low precipitation," which may be related to the improvement of fiscal expenditure efficiency and the conversion of fiscal funds into entity - sector deposits [31][38]. 3.3 Support Factor from Enterprises: Persistent Scar Effect of Canceling the "Manual Interest Compensation" Policy 3.3.1 Calculation of the Proportion of "Ultra - compliant" Deposits Based on the Annual Reports of Listed Banks - Since the end of 2022, the central bank and regulatory authorities have introduced policies to guide large banks to increase credit investment in specific areas, resulting in more enterprise deposits being concentrated in large - bank systems [45]. - Banks have taken multiple measures to reduce deposit costs, but the effect is not obvious. The main reasons are the regular - ization of household deposits and the high cost of enterprise deposits affected by "manual interest compensation" [47][50]. - After the "manual interest compensation" was stopped in April 2024, about 40% of the current deposits of large state - owned and joint - stock banks were estimated to be "ultra - compliant" deposits. However, not all of these deposits will flow out immediately [56][61]. 3.3.2 Calculation of the Proportion of "Ultra - compliant" Deposits Based on the Trend of Enterprise Current Deposits in the Credit Caliber - After the cancellation of "manual interest compensation," the year - on - year decline of enterprise current deposits significantly expanded. From April to August 2024, the cumulative year - on - year over - reduction scale was 4502.42 billion yuan, accounting for about 18.3% of the total balance at the end of March 2024 [65][69]. 3.3.3 Two Factors for the Improvement of Enterprises' Short - term Capital Position - The issuance of government bonds and the allocation of fiscal funds have accelerated, injecting liquidity into the enterprise sector. The increase in settlement demand has led to an increase in RMB funds, which has also promoted the recovery of enterprise current deposits [70][71]. 3.4 Support Factor from Residents: Maturity Transfer of Excess Net Savings 3.4.1 Historical Review of Two Rounds of Residents' "Deposit Outflows" - From 2009 - 2011, residents' savings first flowed into the stock and real - estate markets and then into wealth management and trust products. This was due to the economic stimulus policies after the financial crisis and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy to control inflation [78][82]. - From 2014 - 2016, the bull markets in stocks and bonds, the rise of Internet finance, and the relaxation of real - estate policies led to the diversion of residents' deposits [89][102]. 3.4.2 Calculation of the Precipitated "Savings" with Migration Potential in the Resident Sector - Since 2020, residents' savings have significantly deviated from the linear trend, mainly in the form of regular deposits. As of August 2025, the excess regular savings were about 47.75 trillion yuan, while the excess current savings were only 0.33 trillion yuan [111][115]. - The concept of "excess net savings" is introduced to measure the real "excess" savings accumulation by considering both the asset and liability sides of the resident sector [118]. 3.5 The Bull Market Continues, and 3.3 Trillion Yuan of Deposits May Continue to Transfer This Year, with 0.49 - 0.82 Trillion Yuan Potentially Entering the Market - From June to August 2025, the "deposit transfer" of residents may be in the initial stage, mainly due to the transfer of matured "excess net savings" rather than a fundamental change in residents' risk preference [5][18]. - The equity market rally may have some sustainability. Leveraged funds, medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and foreign capital may support the market. If the A - share market rises steadily, about 3.3 trillion yuan of funds may continue to transfer, with 15% - 25% (about 0.49 - 0.82 trillion yuan) potentially entering the equity market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "low volatility high dividend" investment strategies among investors seeking stability in a turbulent stock market, highlighting a shift from speculative investments to more secure asset allocations [1][2][25]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Investors, particularly those from stable income professions like teachers and doctors, are increasingly favoring low volatility high dividend assets as a means to achieve stable returns [3][12]. - The concept of "low volatility high dividend" is seen as a way for society to indirectly distribute wealth through dividends from quality companies [2][40]. - The investment strategy has gained traction since 2020, reflecting a broader trend of seeking stability in investment choices amid economic uncertainties [20][25]. Group 2: Performance and Strategy - A case study of an investor, referred to as Li Jie, illustrates the effectiveness of this strategy, with her investments yielding approximately 6% returns, outperforming traditional savings options [5][7]. - The low volatility high dividend strategy is characterized by a mix of stocks and bonds, focusing on stable, cash-generating companies [26][29]. - Historical data shows that the low volatility high dividend index has outperformed the broader market in various time frames, demonstrating its resilience during market downturns [42][44]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the low volatility high dividend investment approach is becoming more relevant as traditional high-risk investments lose appeal due to regulatory changes and market conditions [22][24]. - The introduction of policies aimed at enhancing dividend payouts from state-owned enterprises is expected to further support the growth of low volatility high dividend investments [47][49]. - The market is witnessing an increase in the number and scale of low volatility high dividend funds, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards more stable investment options [39][50].

2025.09. 24 本文字数：1132，阅读时长大约2分钟 Dealogic的数据显示，今年夏天，华尔街投行们的全球并购和股权资本市场的交易量均较去年同期 激增40%，是自2021年创纪录以来最好的一年。债务资本市场活动和对公司的贷款业务也有所回 升。本月的IPO市场也是多年来最繁忙的。 在本月的一次行业会议上，摩根士丹利的首席执行官辛克维兹（Dan Simkowitz）表示，多项业务 交易量"与新冠疫情后、高通胀时期以来的任何时期相比，都有了显著改善"。 这逆转了连续几年的投行业务颓势。2021年投行业务繁荣时期，华尔街投行争相招聘的员工，但随 后数年交易一直低迷，投行裁员计划也因此接连不断。今年春天时，由于特朗普政府的关税政策，投 行高管一度判断各项交易业务将进一步被搁置而疲软。当时，高盛在春季进行了一轮裁员，并表示将 视关税影响决定何时再次裁员。眼下，据报道，高盛不仅不准备再次裁员，反而计划雇佣更多重点从 事中间市场业务的银行家。 薪酬咨询公司Johnson Associates的董事约翰森（Alan Johnson）表示："招聘活动的箭头仍指向 上方，投行们正在考虑增加员工人数，并利用即将到来的交 ...

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 澳洲联邦银行（CBA）分析师称，到2026年第二季度，白银期货可能涨至46美元/盎司，甚至更高。风 险偏向上行，因美元面临下行风险，且白银的结构性避险需求走强。受避险需求和白银与美元的强烈反 向关系推动，银价处于14年高位。 ...

本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：龙玥，原文标题：《德银"万人调研"：对于AI冲击岗位，年轻人焦虑远超年长同事》，题图来自：AI生成 人工智能技术正以前所未有的速度重塑全球劳动力市场，但它在不同人群中引发的情绪却截然不同。 德意志银行9月23日发布的研报显示，面对AI可能带来的岗位冲击，最熟悉数字世界的年轻人，反而对AI取代其工作的前景最为焦虑；而那些 被认为与新技术有隔阂的年长员工，却表现得异常平静。 美国人口普查局的数据也显示，近期大学毕业生的失业率（4.8%）已超过了全体工人的失业率（4.0%）。 斯坦福大学的研究显示，在软件工程师和客户服务等受AI影响的职业中，22~25岁年轻毕业生的就业率相较于2022年末的峰值已下降了 6%。 哈佛大学对美国简历和招聘数据的分析发现，采用AI的公司中，初级岗位就业率急剧下降，而高级岗位就业率则在上升。 这份通过对美国和欧洲主要经济体10000名员工的调查，揭示了AI时代下深刻的代际、地理和信任鸿沟。 一、年轻人饭碗不保？AI焦虑的代际鸿沟已然形成 报告数据显示，AI引发的"就业焦虑"在不同年龄段之间存在巨大差异。 根据dbDataInsights在6月至8月进行的调查， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

24日早盘，两市股指全线拉升，深证成指涨超1%，创业板指涨近2%，科创50指数大涨近5%，场内超 4000股飘红。 东莞证券表示，当前A股市场呈现一定震荡整理的格局，但结构性机会依然显著。周二当日半导体产业 链延续强势，银行与港口航运板块亦逆势活跃，显示市场仍存在一定的支撑力量。此外，临近国庆长 假，部分资金出于避险考虑，尤其是杠杆资金在节前主动平仓，属季节性正常现象。市场虽暂陷整理， 但整体风险偏好并未实质下降，伴随基本面复苏及盈利预期改善，中期牛市行情仍在酝酿中。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，旅游、煤炭、保险等板块走低；半导体板块再爆发，地产、医药、石油等板块强势，光刻 机、存储芯片、新型电池概念等活跃。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.63%报3845.91点，深证成指涨1.11%，创业板指涨1.76%，科创50指数涨 4.94%，沪深北三市合计成交14204亿元。 ...

花旗集团的策略师们退出了一个押注长期美国国债将在对美联储的攻击加剧时，表现逊于短期国债的交 易建议，他们表示，上周一项近乎一致的政策决定，"在边际上"减少了对央行独立性的担忧。 包括Dirk Willer和Adam Pickett在内的策略师，建议客户在该交易触及移动止损后，对押注30年期利率远 期合约将落后于5年期合约的头寸进行获利了结。 他们在5月份于两者差值为40个基点的水平上发起了该交易，并在8月份于72个基点的水平上增持了该头 寸，最终在60个基点的水平上退出。 美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼二人在7月份都曾提出鸽派异议，这次则与同事们站在了一边。 "自我们5月份发起交易以来，对长期国债的供应担忧似乎已变得更为温和，"花旗的策略师写道。他们 说，本月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议"在边际上减少了对美联储独立性的担忧"。 此外，策略师们补充说，过去在软着陆情景下的美联储宽松周期"都相当浅"，这限制了"牛市陡峭化"的 潜力。"因此，我们暂时离场观望。" 花旗四个月前的最初建议，是基于对美国总统特朗普标志性的税收和支出法案将使政府债务膨胀，从而 对较长期债务构成压力的预期。他们在8月下旬增持了该赌注，当时 ...

截至2025年9月24日 13:24，沪深300红利低波动指数下跌0.16%。成分股方面涨跌互现，渝农商行领涨 2.18%，福耀玻璃上涨2.11%，云南白药上涨0.88%；浦发银行领跌，华域汽车、农业银行跟跌。300红 利低波ETF(515300)多空胶着。拉长时间看，截至2025年9月23日，300红利低波ETF近1年累计上涨 12.49%。 流动性方面，300红利低波ETF盘中换手2.06%，成交9413.91万元。拉长时间看，截至9月23日，300红 利低波ETF近1月日均成交1.28亿元。 规模方面，300红利低波ETF最新规模达45.70亿元。从资金净流入方面来看，300红利低波ETF近5天获 得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3197.08万元净流入，合计"吸金"8662.29万元。 截至9月23日，300红利低波ETF近5年净值上涨54.34%，指数股票型基金排名100/1010，居于前9.90%。 从收益能力看，截至2025年9月23日，300红利低波ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为13.89%，最长连涨 月数为5个月，最长连涨涨幅为14.56%，上涨月份平均收益率为3.57%。截至2025年9月 ...

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively rose in the morning session, with over 4000 stocks in the market increasing in value [1] - The semiconductor, photolithography, real estate, cultivated diamonds, gaming, and energy storage sectors showed the highest gains, while tourism and hotels, precious metals, coal mining and processing, banking, and airport shipping sectors lagged behind [1] - By midday, the CSI A500 index increased by 1%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.7%, the ChiNext index climbed by 1.8%, the STAR Market 50 component index surged by 4.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises index went up by 1.1% [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext ETF tracks the ChiNext index, which consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, including over 55% in electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [3] - The STAR Market 50 ETF tracks the STAR Market 50 component index, comprising 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, prominently featuring technology leaders, with over 60% in semiconductors and over 75% combined in medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment [3]