证券研究报告 | 金融工程市场策略报告 金融工程市场策略报告 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 分析师：徐忠亚 执业证书号：S1230523050001 xuzhongya@stocke.com.cn 物价回归，决战 2026 ——金融工程 2026 年度策略 核心观点 经济复苏、物价回归或将成为中国经济贯穿全年的核心叙事，看好 A 股进一步走强， 结构上先景气后质量，先周期后消费。此外，量化资金推动下，微盘股牛市或远未结 束。 ❑ 中国经济有望由筑底后期逐步转向复苏期，核心在于需求侧的三大超预期：美国 财政扩张超预期、出口上行超预期、地产供需格局改善带动内需修复超预期。 从宏观周期模型上看，目前我国经济处于筑底后期，且信用周期已经确认企稳， 有望逐步迈入复苏周期。我们判断，2026 年有望出现需求侧的三大超预期，助力 中国经济走向复苏： 1、美国财政扩张超预期：根据 CRFB 预测，在考虑关税收入影响后，美国政府 2026 财年赤字率将达 5.9%。不过，关税收入面临较大不确定性，无论是法律挑 战，还是特朗普反复提及的"关税分红" ，都可能对关税收入造成重大影响。若假 设关税收入清零，则美国赤字率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global risk-off sentiment affecting various markets, including declines in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold. It highlights the investment strategies of former President Trump, who purchased significant amounts of corporate and municipal bonds during this period [1]. Market Overview - The article notes that the A-share market experienced a collective decline on November 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The total trading volume across the three markets was 1,946.17 billion yuan, an increase of 15.701 billion yuan from the previous day [16]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the market fell, with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 23 stocks were locked, and 17 stocks had consecutive limit-ups, with the maximum being six consecutive limit-ups [16]. Sector Analysis - The lithium battery sector faced a downturn due to profit-taking and rumors regarding price increases being debunked. Additionally, there were reports of a price war in the energy storage sector, with prices dropping by 30% [12]. - The AI application sector saw some stocks rise against the trend, with companies like Rongji Software and Inspur Software performing well [16]. - The semiconductor sector remained active, driven by concerns over supply chain security due to changing Sino-Japanese relations and the upcoming IPOs of domestic companies [16]. Financial Support Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments issued a plan to boost consumption in Beijing, particularly focusing on financial support for automobile loans, including incentives for new energy vehicle purchases [23]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that the main funds saw a net outflow of 87.67 billion yuan, with the largest outflows occurring in the electric equipment sector. Conversely, sectors like media, computing, and communication saw net inflows [26]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Liou Shares and Huasheng Tiancai, while companies like Tianshi Materials and Yangguang Electric Power experienced the largest net outflows [26]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The article indicates that sectors such as media, computing, and electronics are leading in performance, while coal, electric equipment, and steel are lagging. The trading heat in sectors like defense, basic chemicals, and agriculture has increased, with some sectors like agriculture and non-bank financials currently at historical low PE percentiles [33].

Core Insights - Insurance capital continues to increase its allocation to equity assets, with the proportion of equity assets reaching near historical highs in Q3 2025 [1] - The allocation structure shows a significant increase in technology and a reduction in high-end manufacturing sectors [5][6] - Insurance capital has accelerated its stake acquisitions in listed companies, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, with a notable increase in the number of acquisitions compared to previous years [9] Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation of insurance capital to various asset classes is as follows: bank deposits (7.9%), bonds (50.3%), stocks (10.0%), funds (5.5%), long-term equity investments (7.9%), and other assets (18.4%) [1] - The investment proportions in bank deposits and bonds decreased by 0.7 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, while the investment in stocks and funds surged to 15.5%, approaching the historical peak of 16.1% in H1 2015 [1] Sector and Stock Preferences - Insurance capital has significantly increased its allocation to banks, steel, and textile sectors, while reducing holdings in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy and military [5] - Key stocks that saw increased investment include Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Hikvision, while reductions were noted in stocks like Goldwind Technology and Aviation Industry Corporation of China [6][8] Shareholding Activities - In 2025, insurance capital has made 30 stake acquisitions in listed companies, surpassing the total for the entire years of 2020 and 2024, with 25 of these acquisitions in Hong Kong stocks [9] - The trend indicates a shift towards acquiring dividend-yielding assets in Hong Kong due to declining bond yields and rising traditional dividend assets [9]

通过"提振消费"与"以人为本"的耦合，消费增长稳定器得以筑牢。对此，建行始终置顶对"人"需求的精准捕捉，并以平台化发展逻辑，链接、赋能生态圈 各方，"促消费"的时代叙事亦有了生动的实践注脚 文｜程韦 张颖 编辑｜张颖 云南高原的褶皱里，有一片被群山环抱的"琉璃万顷"——玉溪抚仙湖。在湖边点一杯咖啡，便可织就一段慵懒又诗意的时光。若遇晴天和日，或许还能目 睹云层从橘渐染成紫的绝美"大片"。作为新晋的"出片胜地"，抚仙湖正引来越来越多游客驻足。 这是"情绪消费"升温的又一生动注脚。从疯抢潮玩IP到智能机器人狂欢，从"我的阿勒泰"到"跟着赛事去旅游"，近年来，"情绪消费"在满足更多人精神需 求的同时，持续破圈延伸，并一跃成为文旅等产业发展催化剂。 最新数据显示，今年前三季度，中国社会消费品零售总额36.59万亿元，同比增长4.5%，预计全年社零总额有望突破50万亿元。在增速较快的细分项目 中，就包括以文旅为代表的服务消费，还有以旧换新、数字商品消费等。 上述现象级的消费趋势表明，消费市场的底层逻辑正在改变——从过去需求决定供给，到如今依靠供给创新激发需求。与此同时，国民经济和社会发 展"十五五"规划亦明确提出，要大 ...

市场情绪正处于一个微妙的十字路口。美银的调查显示，尽管投资者对经济前景的乐观情绪升温，但对人工智能驱动的投资狂热及其潜在泡沫的担忧也在 同步加剧，同时，一个长达20年未见的警示信号——企业过度投资——已经出现。 据追风交易台消息，美银18日发布的全球基金经理调查显示，基金经理们的股票配置升至2025年2月以来的最高水平，但现金持仓降至仅3.7%，触发该 行"卖出信号"，市场担忧过度看涨的仓位可能成为风险资产的阻力。 然而，乐观情绪的背后是日益增长的风险警报。45%的受访者将"AI泡沫"视为当前市场的最大尾部风险，这一比例较上月显著上升。同时，"做多七巨 头"以54%的得票率重回"最拥挤交易"的榜首，凸显了市场资金在大型科技股上的高度集中。 尽管宏观情绪本月有所改善，全球增长预期年内首次转正，53%的投资者预测经济将软着陆，但创纪录的63%受访者认为股市当前估值过高。美银警告， 这一转变的背后，是对AI领域资本支出热潮的规模及其融资方式的普遍担忧。若无美联储降息等新的催化剂，风险资产可能面临回调压力。 AI泡沫成头号风险，20年来首现企业"过度投资"警告 美银调查显示，在经历了数月的市场狂热后，基金经理对AI领 ...

【导读】来自北京的利好消息 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一则利好消息。 11月18日，中国人民银行北京市分行等12部门印发《金融支持北京市提振和扩大消费的实施方案》。 重点内容如下： 1.总体目标 力争到2030年北京市消费领域金融服务水平进一步提升，北京市住宿餐饮、文旅体育、教育、居民服务等服务消费和养老产业贷款余额持续增长、信贷投 放力度不断加大，个人消费金融服务质效不断提升，金融助力北京国际消费中心城市建设取得积极进展，多元化消费金融服务体系基本建成。 2.加大商品消费信贷支持力度 积极开展汽车贷款业务，合理确定贷款发放比例、期限和利率，适当减免汽车以旧换新过程中提前结清贷款产生的违约金。 加大对汽车特别是新能源汽车消费的金融支持力度。 鼓励金融机构通过多种形式参与商家促消费活动，提供消费贷款、信用卡分期费率优惠等活动，为消费者适当减费让利。 3.促进文旅体育消费提质升级 充分发挥首都"双奥之城"优势，鼓励金融机构围绕"赛事+"、冰雪经济等消费场景丰富金融产品，探索开展"门票收益权质押"等融资模式，着力培育精品 赛事体系和赛事运营企业。 4.丰富住宿餐饮业金融服务供给 支持打造一批具有京味儿特 ...

财政部未发布过"推行'离岸钱包'及'香港汇丰银行'用于粤港澳大湾区政策红利发放"、"支持粤港澳大湾 区发展加强区域金融合作释放财政补贴"、"推行粤港澳大湾区金融债券"等相关政策文件。财政部通过 官方网站（www.mof.gov.cn）发布政策信息，可随时进行查阅。 新京报讯 11月18日，财政部金融司发布声明： 特此声明。 近期，有不法分子伪造财政部公文，在社交媒体上传播"粤港澳大湾区政策红利发放"有关虚假信息，诱 导网民下载"粤港澳大湾区APP"、"共建大湾区APP"进行投资。现声明如下： 编辑 刘佳妮 请广大网民提高警惕，谨防上当受骗。对不法分子我们将保留追究法律责任的权利。 ...

请广大网民提高警惕，谨防上当受骗。对不法分子我们将保留追究法律责任的权利。 财政部金融司11月18日声明：近期，有不法分子伪造财政部公文，在社交媒体上传播"粤港澳大湾区政 策红利发放"有关虚假信息，诱导网民下载"粤港澳大湾区APP"、"共建大湾区APP"进行投资。财政部未 发布过"推行'离岸钱包'及'香港汇丰银行'用于粤港澳大湾区政策红利发放"、"支持粤港澳大湾区发展加 强区域金融合作释放财政补贴"、"推行粤港澳大湾区金融债券"等相关政策文件。财政部通过官方网站 （www.mof.gov.cn）发布政策信息，可随时进行查阅。 ...

★ 宏观动态 ★ 外交部：美日同盟是冷战产物，不应针对第三方 据央视新闻，11月18日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。针对美国驻日本大使格拉斯在社交平台上的有关 涉华言论，毛宁表示，美国这位大使的有关表态，纯属别有用心的政治作秀，有违外交官的身份和职责。美日 同盟是冷战产物，不应针对第三方，更不应肆意干涉他国内政，损害他国核心利益。 北京：到2027年转化孵化3000家科技型企业、600家专精特新企业 北京市人民政府办公厅印发《北京市推进科技成果转化落地行动方案（2025—2027年）》，其中提出，发展目 标是，到2027年，高效协同、富有活力的科技成果转化体系基本形成，成功转化一批服务国家战略需求、满足 北京经济社会发展需要的重大科技成果；促成1000家合作平台、5000项技术开发合作项目，转化孵化3000家科 技型企业、600家专精特新企业，开辟未来产业新赛道，实现关键核心技术新替代，激发转型升级新动能。 澳门特区行政长官岑浩辉发表2026年施政报告 据央视新闻，澳门特区行政长官岑浩辉11月18日在特区立法会发表2026年施政报告，明确明年特区政府施政总 体方向为：深化行政改革、加力促进多元、精准优化民 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major investment banks like UBS and Goldman Sachs are optimistic about the performance of the Chinese market in 2026, highlighting opportunities in sectors such as AI and overseas expansion [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market has experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3939.81 points on November 18, down 0.81% [2]. - Despite market volatility, foreign investment interest remains high, with over 100 A-share companies receiving foreign research attention this month [2][4]. - The overall health of corporate earnings, supported by robust Q3 reports, indicates that recent market fluctuations are more influenced by sentiment rather than fundamental weaknesses [6]. Group 2: Foreign Investment and Research - AI companies are the most favored by foreign investors, with Optoelectronics receiving 92 institutional research visits, over half from foreign entities [2][3]. - Other notable companies attracting foreign research include BeiGene, Luxshare Precision, and Huichuan Technology, all of which are involved in AI or technology sectors [4][5]. - The trend shows that large-cap stocks continue to attract foreign interest, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Industrial Fulian, and BYD being included in recent foreign research lists [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Themes - UBS forecasts that the Chinese stock market will experience another prosperous year in 2026, driven by innovation, particularly in AI, and supportive policies for private enterprises [7]. - Key investment themes identified by UBS include internet, hardware technology, and brokerage sectors, while high-dividend stocks are being deprioritized [7]. - Goldman Sachs also highlights several investment themes expected to outperform the market, including the return of private enterprises, overseas expansion, and AI-related sectors [7].