2025.07. 21 本文字数：3393，阅读时长大约5.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 封图 | 7月19日，观众在第三届链博会数字科技链展区与机器人握手。来源：新华社 二季度中国经济能实现5.2%的增速，工业发挥了"压舱石"作用。下半年，除钢铁、石化等重点行业将陆 续公布新一轮稳增长方案外，工信部还将推进培育各类未来产业。 国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年，规上工业增加值同比增长6.4%，增速较2024年全年加快0.6个百分 点。6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，比上月大幅加快1个百分点，远超市场预期。 工信部总工程师谢少锋日前在国新办发布会上表示，下半年将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材 等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。与此同时，持续培育发展动能。加 快发展生物制造、低空产业。推动人形机器人、元宇宙、脑机接口等未来产业创新发展，超前布局新领 域新赛道。 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室在北京举行新闻发布会，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋，工业和信息化部新闻发言人、运行监 测协调局局长陶青，工业和信息化部信息通信发展司司长谢存介绍2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may decline compared to the first half, with a policy focus shifting towards structural adjustments. Despite this, the A-share market remains strong due to stable capital market expectations, anti-involution policies, and the positive impact of technology and trade negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Market Stability - The consensus is that achieving the annual economic growth target is feasible, with a shift in policy focus towards structural adjustments. This suggests that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may be weaker than in the first half, and expectations for growth-stabilizing policies should be moderated [1]. - Stable capital market policies have created a "buffer" against macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a perception that the downside risks for the A-share market are manageable. Even in adverse economic conditions, timely policy responses can mitigate risks [1][2]. - The anti-involution policies have connected short-term economic highlights with mid-term supply-demand improvements, allowing for smoother transitions in the market dynamics between upstream cycles and midstream manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the conditions for a market breakout are expected to be more favorable, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026. This could accelerate the market's reflection of improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability [3]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak for the repricing of household deposits, creating a critical window for reallocating assets, which may lead to natural increments in certain investment products that have limited dependence on stock market performance [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The focus of investment is shifting towards undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term opportunities lie in midstream manufacturing that benefits from supply clearing and anti-involution policies [4]. - The AI computing power industry is showing significant improvement, with domestic profit effects expanding, indicating continued investment opportunities in this sector [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a potential leader in the next bull market, with ongoing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, alongside high dividend stocks as attractive investment options [4][5].

Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices from July 14 to July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10913.84 points, up 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index at 2277.15 points, up 3.17% [2][3] - Approximately 57% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 149 stocks rising over 15% and 20 stocks declining over 15% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery, while traditional sectors such as real estate, media, public utilities, and non-bank financials saw declines [2] International Market Overview - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32% to 44342.19 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.01% to 6296.79 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.05% to 20895.66 points [4][5] - European markets showed mixed results, with the FTSE 100 up 0.22%, the CAC 40 up 0.01%, and the DAX down 0.33% [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil falling by 0.30% to $67.34 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.35% to $69.28 per barrel [4][5] Company Developments - Yushutech has initiated its listing guidance with CITIC Securities as the advisory firm, aiming to accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots [6] - The U.S. has enacted a regulatory framework for stablecoins with the signing of the "Genius Act" by President Trump, marking a significant step towards the regulation of digital currencies [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [9] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the new round of A-share market trends has begun, with a focus on high-growth sectors and resource price increases [12] - The stablecoin market is expected to expand as regulatory frameworks are established, presenting investment opportunities [11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the banking industry and the broader economic context in China, particularly focusing on the "脱虚向实" (devirtualization) policy aimed at promoting industrial development while addressing issues in the service sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Shift and Economic Impact** - The "脱虚向实" policy has led to an imbalance in resource allocation, favoring industrial sectors over services, resulting in reduced employment opportunities in the latter [2][3]. - The current policy shift aims to counteract the negative effects of price competition in industries, which has led to declining profit margins and increased unemployment [1][3]. 2. **Banking Sector Performance** - Recent mid-term financial reports from banks, particularly Hangzhou Bank, show a profit growth of nearly 17%, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong performance in the city commercial banking sector [4][17]. - The overall banking sector is expected to see improved performance due to the positive trends in revenue and profit growth, with non-performing asset (NPA) ratios remaining low [2][19]. 3. **Effects of Anti-Internal Competition Measures** - Anti-internal competition measures are being implemented across various industries, including banking, to stabilize prices and improve profit margins [5][10]. - These measures have shown initial effectiveness, with some banks reporting an increase in NPA and stabilization of interest margins [5][17]. 4. **Industrial Sector Challenges** - The industrial sector faces issues of overcapacity and fierce competition, particularly among small enterprises producing low-quality goods at low prices, which pressures larger firms [6][8]. - The government is implementing measures such as supply control, price regulation, and higher environmental standards to address these challenges [7][9]. 5. **Price Recovery and Market Dynamics** - The measures taken are expected to uplift industrial product prices, which may also affect non-industrial goods, aiming for a restoration of normal price levels rather than excessive inflation [10][11]. - Different industries are responding variably to these policies, with significant price increases observed in commodities like polysilicon and lithium [11][12]. 6. **Macroeconomic Implications** - The policies are anticipated to reflect positively in macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and CPI, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 5% [13]. - Improved corporate profitability is expected to lead to a bull market in stocks, benefiting various sectors including services [13][25]. 7. **Investment Outlook** - The current market shows a preference for stocks and commodities, with a cautious approach towards bonds due to limited room for interest rate declines [14][15]. - The banking sector is viewed as having potential for valuation recovery, especially for banks with strong fundamentals [19][20]. 8. **Insurance Capital Strategies** - Insurance capital is favoring high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, indicating a selective investment approach based on specific circumstances rather than a broad sell-off [21][22]. 9. **Dividend Performance in Banking** - The dividend yield for large banks has dropped below 4%, while city commercial banks maintain higher yields, making them attractive to investors [23][24]. Other Important Insights - The banking sector's future performance is expected to improve as the market has not fully recognized the potential of quality financial institutions [25]. - The ongoing adjustments in government policy reflect a strategic response to previous economic challenges, aiming to foster a more balanced and sustainable growth environment across sectors [1][3].

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five tiered power stations primarily for power export while also addressing local consumption needs [2] - The project is considered strategically significant, having been approved by the Chinese government in December 2024, and is expected to set historical records in terms of investment amount, construction difficulty, duration, and impact [2] - Analysts believe that the project will significantly boost economic development in Tibet and surrounding regions [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated a new round of actions to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [3] - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 6.4% year-on-year, outpacing GDP growth by 1.1 percentage points, indicating sustained high growth in industrial production [3] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5% year-on-year, supported by the acceleration of major engineering projects and large-scale equipment upgrades [3] Group 3 - Central Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in multiple broad-based ETFs, purchasing approximately 150 billion yuan worth of ETFs, which has positioned it as a stabilizing force in the market during turbulent times [4] Group 4 - The launch of the "official direct sales platform" by Hanglv Zongheng integrates ticket resources from 37 domestic airlines, allowing users to compare and purchase tickets from a single interface [5][6] - This platform aims to address long-standing issues in the ticket sales market, such as price discrepancies and bundled sales, thereby protecting consumer rights [6] Group 5 - The Japanese ruling coalition may lose its majority in the House of Councillors elections, with preliminary results indicating fewer than 50 seats won, which could impact the government's ability to govern effectively [7][8] - Public dissatisfaction with the government's measures against rising prices and ongoing economic pressures from the U.S. are contributing factors to the electoral outcome [8] Group 6 - The market for polysilicon has surged over 30% this month, driven by a rebound in industrial commodity futures, indicating a strong demand in the photovoltaic industry [18] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry chain is expanding globally, with sustainability issues becoming increasingly prominent [18] - There is a growing interest in hydropower assets, which is expected to attract continued investment from funds [18] Group 7 - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also experienced gains [19] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a positive trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.33%, reflecting overall market stability [20] - U.S. stock markets displayed varied results, with the Nasdaq achieving a new historical high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline [19] Group 8 - The upcoming IPOs include three new stocks, with one each from the ChiNext, Beijing Stock Exchange, and Shenzhen Main Board, indicating ongoing market activity [23] - Notable companies include Hanhai Group, a leading domestic hardware enterprise, and Dingjia Precision, a national-level small giant in consumer electronics [23]

Group 1 - The industrial economy in China is experiencing growth driven by over a hundred AI-enabled devices such as AI smartphones, computers, and glasses [2] - The number of 5G mobile phone users has reached 1.118 billion, with intelligent computing power scaling up to 748 EFLOPS [3] - More than 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises have been cultivated, including 14,600 "little giant" enterprises [4] Group 2 - New work plans for stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials will be released soon [5] - Implementation plans for digital transformation in the automotive and machinery sectors are set to be issued [6] - The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative will accelerate the deployment of large models in key manufacturing sectors [6] Group 3 - The establishment of national-level manufacturing pilot platforms is underway, focusing on critical areas such as raw materials and emerging industries [6] - A series of actions will be taken to address overdue payments to small and medium-sized enterprises [7] - The establishment of the second phase of the National SME Development Fund aims to attract more social capital for investment in hard technology [7] Group 4 - The first public REITs for data centers have been established, raising a total of 69 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [11][12] - China's unicorn companies have a total valuation exceeding 1.2 trillion USD, reflecting the vitality of new productive forces [12] - The digital asset exchange Bullish has filed for an IPO, marking the first public listing attempt following the enactment of the stablecoin legislation [12]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 2 、中美关系 ： 1 ） 7 月 17 日 ，国家主席夫人彭丽媛出席 2025 年"鼓岭缘"中美青少年联谊活 动。 2 ） 7 月 18 日 ，商务部新闻发言人答记者问时提到，"中方依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口 申请，美方于 7 月上旬相应取消了会谈涉及的对华限制措施。我们注意到，美方近日又主动表示将批 准对华销售英伟达 H20 芯片"。 风险提示： 政策更新不及时。 报告正文 一、 近一周党中央及国务院⾼层重要⾏程 近一周临近 7 月中央政治局会议，我们主要关注中央及相关部委对经济形势判断、宏观政策吹风。 1 、经济形势判断 ： 7 月 15 日，国新办举⾏新闻发布会介绍 2025 年上半年国民经济运⾏情况，国 家统计局指出，"上半年……国民经济顶住压力、迎难而上，经济运⾏总体平稳、稳中向好"。 2 、货币政策 ： 7 月 14 日，国新办举⾏新闻发布会，介绍 2025 年上半年货币信贷政策执⾏及金融 统计数据情况，央⾏指出， ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial production growth in China is expected to slow down in the second half of the year due to export-related factors, but supportive policies and the cultivation of new growth drivers will help maintain stable industrial growth [1][5][8]. Group 1: Industrial Production and Economic Growth - The export delivery value accounts for nearly 40% of China's industrial output, indicating a significant reliance on exports [1][5]. - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with June seeing a notable increase of 6.8%, exceeding market expectations [1][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement new growth stabilization plans for key industries such as steel and petrochemicals in the second half of the year [1][6][9]. Group 2: Key Industry Performance - Major industrial provinces have shown strong performance, with all 31 provinces reporting year-on-year growth in industrial added value, and several provinces achieving over 8% growth [6][7]. - Key industries such as electrical machinery, automobiles, and electronics have contributed significantly to industrial growth, with high-tech manufacturing sectors showing robust performance [6][7]. Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - Emerging industries like humanoid robots and 3D printing are expected to provide new growth points for the economy, with the potential to become new pillars of growth [7][12]. - The MIIT is focusing on nurturing new industries and developing future sectors such as bio-manufacturing and low-altitude industries [9][11]. Group 4: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - The MIIT plans to enhance the development environment for SMEs by addressing issues like overdue payments and providing policy support [13][14]. - The National SME Development Fund has completed the establishment of its seventh batch of sub-funds, with a total scale of 8.287 billion yuan, focusing on hard technology sectors [14][15].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.08% and a year-on-year increase of 2.28%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1630.4 in July, a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 20, 2025, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35%[3] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%[3] - The operating rate of rebar production increased by 0.36 percentage points to 43.06%[3] Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables decreased by 0.09%[2] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.44% and 1.05% respectively as of July 18, 2025[3] - The price of glass increased by 8.66% due to the "anti-involution" policy and a decrease in production[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week, new special bonds issued amounted to 123 billion, with local general bonds at 19 billion, achieving a 60.8% issuance progress[3] - The issuance of special bonds (excluding debt relief) reached 1,315 billion, with a 53.0% progress[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. CPI for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.9%, indicating controlled inflation despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. retail sales nominal month-on-month growth was 0.6%, exceeding expectations primarily due to price increases rather than volume[4]

针对工程建设审批"部门分散、标准不一、协同低效"等问题，当地以"减时限、减材料、减环节"为核心，创新推出"三段式并联审批"制度，推动 审批从"人跑"向"数跑"转变，有效提升审批效率，降低企业办事成本。 辽宁鼎际得石化科技有限公司厂区。新华社记者张博群摄 大连长兴岛是国家七大石化产业基地之一，形成了以绿色石化为核心的产业集群。上下游产业链条不断完善，吸引了越来越多的企业来此投资。 当地全力推动"高效办成一件事"各项重点任务落地实施，以经营主体和群众需求为导向，创新推行"集中审批+要素统筹"改革，通过职能整合、流 程再造、服务升级，为项目早落地、早投产注入动能。 大连长兴岛经济技术开发区自然资源局局长孙东升说："为解决企业在办理用地、用林、用海等手续时'多头跑、反复跑'的问题，我们成立了自然 资源要素保障推进组，打破科室职能界限，推行'一门受理、统一审核、统一批复'的闭环管理机制，实现要素保障从'企业跑'到'政府跑'、从'后置 审批'到'前置服务'的转变。企业仅需提交一次材料，我们提供全程一站式服务。" 今年以来，该局自然资源要素保障推进组已服务重点项目12个，平均审批周期较改革前缩短40%，真正实现了"要素跟着 ...