随着石化行业结构优化升级，下游需求逐步回暖向好，荣盛石化业绩反转的内外部条件已充分具备，有 望持续释放产业链协同效应与技术创新红利，推动营收与利润实现稳健增长，在行业新一轮发展周期中 抢占先机。 荣盛石化积极响应国务院新"国九条"、证监会市值管理等政策号召，开展三期股份回购方案，以承诺回 购金额上限累计回购公司股票逾5.53亿股，占公司总股本的5.46%，成交总金额69.88亿元。公司控股股 东荣盛控股连续实施两期增持，累计增持达16.93亿元。 4月25日，荣盛石化（002493.SZ）发布公告，公司计划将存放于回购专用证券账户的第一期回购股份合 1.36亿股予以注销，同时相应减少公司注册资本。据悉，荣盛石化第一期股份回购实施时间跨度为2022 年3月至8月，期间回购成交总金额达19.98亿元。本次股份注销将直接推动每股所对应净资产等权益指 标提升，增强投资者实际收益预期，近20亿元的股份注销规模在中国资本市场发展史上也较为罕见。 作为全球化工材料领域的领军企业，荣盛石化凭借全产业链优势，成为中国乃至亚洲聚酯、新能源材 料、工程塑料及高附加值聚烯烃领域的核心供应商，拥有全球最大的PX、PTA等化工品产能。2 ...

行业供应过剩压力持续凸显，渤海化学（600800）去年净亏损同比扩大。 渤海化学4月22日晚间发布2024年年报，2024年营业收入47.84亿元，同比增长48.31%；净亏损6.32亿 元，上年同期净亏损5.21亿元，亏损扩大。鉴于公司及母公司未分配利润为负，不具备现金分红条件， 渤海化学董事会决定2024年度不进行利润分配，亦不进行资本公积金转增股本。 从工艺路线来看，PDH工艺在丙烯生产中占据主导地位。在经济不景气的大背景下，随着新增产能的释 放，行业供应过剩压力进一步加剧，装置全年开工率维持在72%—84%的低位水平，丙烯价格整体呈低 位窄幅波动态势。 2024年国内丙烯市场价格同比小幅下跌，价格仍处于近五年的中低位水平，年内价格波动振幅出现明显 收窄，季节性走势并不明显。利润偏弱对产品价格的托底支撑作用增强，同时供应压力增大又限制价格 上涨空间，导致市场影响因素增多，价格波动频率较快。2024年丙烯市场价格呈现低位震荡走势，振幅 出现明显收窄。丙烯价格同比下跌的主要原因在于供应面的增加，同时下游多数产品利润欠佳，丙烯需 求同步偏弱，对丙烯价格的制约作用较为明显。 值得注意的是，渤海化学2023年同样 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 本文从行业协会视角出发，观察 20 大中观行业的现状与未来趋势。 1 ）当前供需失衡、需求不足等问题仍然存在。 2 ）但边际上，已出现一定积极迹象， 表现为：企业正通过调整改造、并购重组等方式重构行业格局（例 如百货行业）；在总量偏弱背景下不乏结构性亮点（例如珠宝消费承压，但黄金高增）； 3 ）往后看，关注四个趋势： 通过供改改善行业环境（如光伏 / 钢铁 / 石化 / 水泥等 ）；新的增长极正在 形成（ AI/ 软件 / 演出等）； AI 助力降本提效（如餐饮 / 珠宝 / 百货等）；深耕细分领域（服装 / 珠宝 / 白酒等）。 报告摘要 一、供需失衡等症结仍存 1 ）供求失衡问题，主要集中在周期、制造业领域 ，例如： a ）石化，"面临深度调整的阵痛期"； b ）钢 铁，需求自 2020 年连续 4 年下滑，且"新的供需动态平衡机制尚未建立"； c ）水泥，"水泥市场饱和度较 高"，在需求下滑的背景下， 内卷式竞争加剧； d ） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe population decline in Northeast China, particularly highlighting the loss of over 11 million people in the last decade, which has significant implications for the region's economic and demographic landscape [5][6][10]. Population Decline Overview - The total population of the three northeastern provinces has decreased by 820,000, marking the highest decline in the country [4]. - From 2014 to 2024, Northeast China has cumulatively lost 11.07 million people, returning to population levels not seen since the 1980s [5][10]. - The population decline is uneven across the provinces, with Liaoning losing 2.23 million, Jilin 4.29 million, and Heilongjiang 8.04 million [13]. Factors Contributing to Population Decline - Heilongjiang has experienced a population decrease of 8 million over 14 years, attributed to the lowest birth rate in the country and a lack of strong urban centers to retain residents [17][18]. - The province's birth rate in 2023 was only 2.92‰, significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea [18]. - The lack of a strong provincial capital to attract and retain population contrasts with other provinces where major cities have managed to maintain or grow their populations [20][22]. Economic Implications - Northeast China lacks a city with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a population over 10 million, which are critical for economic vitality [32]. - Recent investments from state-owned enterprises and favorable geopolitical changes have led to economic recovery, with Dalian and Shenyang both surpassing 900 billion yuan in GDP [34][35]. - However, the challenge remains to attract and retain population, as the region's overall population continues to decline [41]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that for Northeast China to reverse its population decline, it needs to cultivate new industries and retain young people [30]. - The region's only cities with positive population growth are Dalian, Shenyang, and Changchun, but they face significant hurdles in reaching the 10 million population mark [39][44]. - The competition for population is intensifying, with major cities across the country vying for talent, making it difficult for Northeast cities to attract new residents [42].

Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 0.13%, the chemical machinery index rose by 1.46%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index grew by 0.66%, while the pesticide and fertilizer index decreased by 0.14% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 2.59%, the oil extraction index rose by 4.85%, and the oil trading index grew by 1.16% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - As of April 17, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $64.68 per barrel, up 5.17% from April 11, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.96 per barrel, up 4.94% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included trichloroethylene up 16.28%, propane up 7.67%, US light crude oil up 5.17%, Brent crude oil up 4.94%, and pure pyridine up 4.02% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included liquid chlorine down 62.28%, organic silicon DMC down 10.71%, butadiene down 9.69%, TDI down 9.00%, and coal tar down 8.70% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five performing listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included Yishihua rising by 55.72%, Hongbaoli up 55.21%, United Chemical up 35.93%, Yinuowei up 28.23%, and *ST Dazhi up 28.07% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Runpu Food down 15.72%, Meinong Biological down 15.21%, Hengguang Co. down 14.91%, ST Huifeng down 13.51%, and Bingyang Technology down 12.68% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in operations, with expectations for significant performance growth throughout the year [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a total revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year but up 5.78% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.78%. The basic earnings per share were 0.29 yuan, down 3.33% year-on-year but up 3.57% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 7.746 billion yuan, indicating strong cash flow generation capabilities [3] Industry Context - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with advanced leading capacities likely to benefit from industry consolidation. The company possesses 20 million tons of advanced refining capacity, which provides significant advantages in cost control and resource integration [3][4] - The average Brent oil price in Q1 2025 was $75 per barrel, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decrease but a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit over the next few years, with projections of 8.112 billion yuan in 2025, 9.090 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.287 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.0%, and 13.2% respectively [6] - The company is advancing its high-end chemical product offerings, with several projects expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the coming years [3][4]

其他石化 恒力石化（600346.SH） 买入-B(维持) 业绩稳步增长，全产业链发展领先优势 2025 年 4 月 21 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年报，实现营业收入 2362.73 亿元，同比增长 0.63%； 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 70.44 亿元，同比增长 2.01%。其中，Q4 实现营业收入 585.44 亿元，同比-5.12%，环比-10.29%，实现归母净利润为 19.39 亿元，同比+61.03%，环比+78.39%。 事件点评 原油走低带动公司成本降低，纺服链复苏带动民用丝需求快速增长。从 成本端来看，原油价格有所回落，2024 年原油价格呈现前高后低、宽幅震 荡走势。全年布伦特原油均价 80 美元/桶，同比下降 2.8%；WTI 原油均价 76 美元/桶，同比下降 2.3%。全年煤炭供需处于宽松状态，库存维持高位， 价格震荡下行，2024 公司煤炭平均进价 692.68 元/吨，同比-14.69%。在居民 收入及消费信心趋稳、国家促消费政策逐步显效等因素的支撑下，我国纺服 内销市场稳中有增，2024 年 1-12 月限额以上服装鞋帽 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hengli Petrochemical (600346) reported a revenue of 57.024 billion yuan for the first quarter of 2025, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 2.34% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 2.051 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.13% [1]

Group 1 - Dalian's economy achieved a GDP growth of 6.2% in the first quarter, surpassing national and provincial averages by 0.8% and 1% respectively [1] - The city has implemented 36 policy measures aimed at promoting high-quality economic development, focusing on building a modern industrial system [1] - Dalian is strengthening its key industries such as shipbuilding, rail transit, green petrochemicals, and emerging sectors like new information technology and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2 - Dalian launched a 6.0 version of its business environment enhancement plan, introducing 48 measures and 12 regional brands to boost economic development [2] - The city aims to expand its cross-border e-commerce and has been selected as a national pilot for service industry expansion [2] - Dalian is targeting a total marine economy output of 480 billion yuan this year, emphasizing the importance of marine development [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, driven by a favorable market environment and cost reduction strategies, despite a decline in non-recurring net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 236.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.63% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year - The non-recurring net profit was 5.21 billion yuan, down 13.14% year-on-year - For Q4 2024, operating revenue was 58.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year and 10.30% quarter-on-quarter - Q4 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, up 61.03% year-on-year and 78.39% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Cost and Efficiency - The overall sales gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from the previous year - Financial expenses decreased by 2.44% year-on-year, while sales and management expenses increased by 11.23% and 10.38%, respectively - R&D expenses rose by 24.20% year-on-year - The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.99%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Cash Flow and Working Capital - The net cash flow from operating activities was 22.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year due to reduced sales collections - The net cash flow from investing activities was -20.90 billion yuan, while financing activities generated 7.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.11% - The cash and cash equivalents balance at the end of the period was 24.55 billion yuan, an increase of 63.37% year-on-year - Accounts receivable turnover decreased from 515.54 times in 2023 to 422.88 times, while inventory turnover increased from 6.03 times to 7.67 times [2]. Industry Trends and Demand - The petrochemical industry experienced expanded demand in 2024, with both production and sales increasing - The decline in crude oil and coal prices contributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements for the company - The domestic textile supply chain showed steady recovery, with rapid growth in demand for civilian silk, benefiting the company's aromatic-PTA-polyester value chain [1][2]. New Material Production and Innovation - In 2024, several projects were launched, including a 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project, enhancing the company's capabilities in high-value downstream sectors - The annual production of 400,000 tons of high-performance special industrial silk was fully operational, supporting the automotive, chemical, and electronics industries - The Suzhou Fenhu base's 12 functional film production lines were fully operational, with an annual capacity of 470,000 tons, improving competitiveness in the high-end functional film sector [3]. Integrated Development Strategy - The company is a leader in implementing a full industrial chain strategy in polyester new materials, aiming to create a world-class integrated platform from crude oil to various high-value chemical products - The company has established significant processing capacities, including 20 million tons of crude oil and 5 million tons of coal, with advanced PTA production capabilities [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 247.14 billion yuan, 258.18 billion yuan, and 268.69 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 8.46 billion yuan, 10.75 billion yuan, and 12.01 billion yuan - The company is expected to benefit from the continued decline in raw material prices, new material capacity releases, and its integrated development strategy [5].