降息周期开启，周期有何投资机会？20250921 摘要 BDI 指数在历史降息周期中显著上涨，当前干散货运价仍处底部。关注 招商轮船、海通发展等标的，以及在新兴市场具有成长性的嘉友国际。 降息利好新兴市场基建和消费，推动资金流入。看好极兔速递在新兴市 场电商爆发期的发展潜力，尤其是在东南亚和拉美地区。 美元贬值及人民币升值利好航空板块，带来汇兑收益。推荐华夏航空、 港股中的国航、东航、南航，以及 A 股中的吉祥航空和春秋航空。 游轮运价近期大幅上涨，供需关系反转是主因。OPEC 恢复产量， VLOC 游轮交付量减少，美国制裁影响供给。推荐具备游轮和干散货双 重优势的招商轮船。 8 月通达系快递单票价格上涨，9 月涨价区域扩大至全国 90%件量份额 区域，快递行业反内卷成功，业绩有望改善。推荐圆通、申通及极兔速 递。 美联储降息打开国内降息空间，中美关系缓和利好风险偏好。化工行业 PPI 降幅收窄，景气度见底。关注烯烃（宝丰能源、卫星化学）、涤纶、 有机硅（新安股份、三友化工、东岳硅材）和农化（亚钾国际、东方铁 塔）子板块。 市场对有色金属板块看多，预计下周将交易降息预期。铜和黄金预计领 涨，关注紫金矿业、中国 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (71.62%), Gree Power (69.26%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (69.07%) [1] - Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (68.69%) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +135.49 billion, +36.19 billion, and +12.40 billion respectively [1] - Xiaomi Group-W, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong, and Tencent Holdings experienced the largest decreases in holding amounts, with reductions of -19.37 billion, -18.72 billion, and -10.39 billion respectively [2] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 99.41 billion shares, representing 71.62% [1] - Gree Power (01330) has a holding of 2.80 billion shares, representing 69.26% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding of 8.95 billion shares, representing 69.07% [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Alibaba-W (09988) saw an increase of +135.49 billion in holding amount, with an increase of +85.16 million shares [1] - Meituan-W (03690) experienced an increase of +36.19 billion, with an increase of +34.04 million shares [1] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) had an increase of +12.40 billion, with an increase of +20.13 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a decrease of -19.37 billion in holding amount, with a decrease of -34.16 million shares [2] - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) saw a decrease of -18.72 billion, with a decrease of -68.81 million shares [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) experienced a decrease of -10.39 billion, with a decrease of -1.62 million shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Istanbul Bridge" container ship by Hai Jie Shipping marks the establishment of a new Arctic fast shipping route from China to Europe, significantly reducing shipping time and enhancing logistics efficiency for exports from Fujian Province [1] Group 1: Shipping Route Details - The new Arctic fast shipping route is the first direct shipping line from Fujian Province to Europe, completing the journey in just 19 days, which is 7 days faster than the China-Europe Railway Express and over 20 days faster than the traditional Suez Canal route [1] - The route connects major Chinese ports including Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Fuzhou, and Ningbo directly to key European hubs such as Felixstowe in the UK, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Hamburg in Germany, and Gdansk in Poland [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - This shipping line provides customized fast shipping services for enterprises in the Fuzhou port hinterland, facilitating exports to Europe and supporting the upcoming Christmas trade season as well as the supply of raw materials for European chemical and construction industries [1] - Hai Jie Shipping has designated the Jiangyin Port area of Fuzhou Port as the sole port of call for this route in Fujian Province, creating a "polar shortcut" for inland manufacturing enterprises to benefit from the time efficiency of the Arctic shipping line [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - VLCC freight rates have reached the highest level for September since 1990, with the VLCC TD3c TCE reaching $96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, and expected to rise further due to tight capacity [6] - The commencement of the West Simandou iron ore project is anticipated to support the bulk shipping market starting from Q4 2025, with an expected shipment volume of 2-3 million tons in 2025 [6] - Potential trade agreements between China and the U.S. could provide additional demand for oil and bulk shipping in Q4 2025 [6] - The combination of OPEC+ oil production increases and the West Simandou project, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to create a favorable environment for both oil and bulk shipping markets starting from Q4 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - VLCC freight rates are at a historical high for September, indicating strong demand and tight supply conditions [6] - The upcoming release of Middle Eastern cargoes and the lowest available VLCC capacity in the past year may lead to further increases in freight rates [6] West Simandou Project - The West Simandou iron ore project has officially commenced operations, with the first batch of shipments expected in November 2025 [6] - The project has significant iron ore reserves exceeding 2.25 billion tons and an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, requiring at least 155 Capesize vessels for transportation [6] Trade Relations Impact - Recent discussions between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump may pave the way for a trade agreement, potentially increasing oil and agricultural imports from the U.S. [6] - The reduction in tariffs could enhance shipping demand, particularly in the oil and bulk sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, Haitong Development, HNA Technology, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production is stable, and investment is better than consumption during the period from September 14 to September 20, 2025 [1]. - The industrial production shows marginal improvement, with mixed performance in different sectors. The personnel flow slightly rebounds, and the freight price slightly drops. The consumption shows a decline in the year - on - year wholesale sales of automobiles and a differentiation in prices. The investment has good performance in construction and a recovery in the commercial housing market. The port throughput in exports increases, while most shipping indices decline. - The bond indices generally rise, most stock indices increase, commodities show mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciate against the RMB [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Category of Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, most stock indices increased, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index had the largest increase, with a weekly increase of 0.15%. The ChiNext Index had the largest gain among stock indices, with a weekly increase of 2.34%. The Nanhua Black Index among commodities had the largest increase, with a gain of 2.27%, while the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline, with a drop of 0.80%. The British pound had the largest decline among foreign currencies, with a weekly decline of 0.50%, and the US dollar depreciated against the RMB, with a weekly decline of 0.14% [1][6]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production showed marginal improvement. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.50 pcts to 34.40% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.15 pcts to 84.00% week - on - week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.19% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar and float glass remained flat compared to last week at 42.96% and 76.31% respectively, and the mill operation rate increased by 1.18 pcts to 38.55% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.11 pcts to 91.54% week - on - week, the PTA operating rate increased by 2.34 pcts to 77.29% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.81 pcts to 79.39% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.20 pcts to 73.66% week - on - week, and the operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.07 pcts to 65.66% week - on - week [1][9]. 3.3. People and Freight Flow - The personnel flow slightly rebounded, and the freight price slightly dropped. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 0.07% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights increased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights increased by 2.56% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][27]. 3.4. Consumption - The year - on - year wholesale sales of automobiles declined, and the prices showed differentiation. The year - on - year wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased by 1.00%, while the year - on - year retail sales increased by 1.00%. The 4WMA of the year - on - year growth rates of both wholesale and retail sales declined. The weekly box office of movies increased by 170% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers increased by 176% week - on - week. Most agricultural product prices declined, with the pork price decreasing by 2.01% week - on - week and the vegetable price decreasing by 3.27% week - on - week [1][44]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, and the commercial housing market recovered. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.5 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.42% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate remained flat compared to last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 7.7% week - on - week, with increases in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities decreased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][49]. 3.6. Exports - The port throughput increased, and most shipping indices declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 1.8%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.1%. The BDI Index increased by 3.62% week - on - week, while the SCFI Index and CCFI Index decreased by 14.30% and 0.45% respectively week - on - week [1][68].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European route) has been experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping 6% to 1050.5 points, marking a 20.13% decrease over the last 10 trading days [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai export container freight index saw a 14.3% month-on-month decline, reaching 1198.21 points, indicating weak demand in the European shipping market [1] - The shipping market has officially entered the off-season, with cargo volumes typically at their lowest from September to October, averaging an 8% month-on-month decline during September from 2013 to present [3][4] - The supply of shipping capacity has been increasing, with a 15% year-on-year rise in capacity from East China to Europe, leading to intensified price competition [3][4] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The average price for large containers in the 41st week is reported at $1450/FEU, the lowest level in 2023, down over $1900/FEU from the peak of $3370/FEU at the end of July [3] - Major shipping companies have reduced their quotes for small containers to below $1000/TEU and large containers to around $1400/FEU, with ongoing adjustments to European route quotes [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the main contract still has room for further decline, with current prices approaching the breakeven point for some shipping companies [4][7] - The upcoming National Day holiday may impact the shipping index, with potential price adjustments expected as shipping companies announce their holiday schedules [6][7] - The market is divided on the potential for demand recovery in the peak season, with concerns over cargo volume shrinkage and high supply pressure influencing future contract pricing [7]

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of 0.087 yuan per share (including tax) for the first half of 2025, approved at the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on September 12, 2025 [2][4] - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to 113,851,100.06 yuan (including tax), based on a total share capital of 1,308,633,334 shares [4] Distribution Details - The distribution is applicable to all shareholders registered with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the close of trading on the day before the equity registration [3] - The dividends will be distributed through the clearing system of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, and shareholders who have designated transactions can receive their cash dividends on the distribution date [5] - For shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares, the company will not withhold individual income tax at the time of dividend distribution; tax will be calculated based on the holding period when shares are transferred [9] Taxation Information - Individual shareholders holding shares for one month or less will incur a 20% tax on dividends, while those holding for more than one month but less than one year will incur a 10% tax [9] - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will have a 10% corporate income tax withheld, resulting in a net dividend of 0.0783 yuan per share [10] - Other corporate shareholders will not have tax withheld by the company, and the actual cash dividend remains 0.087 yuan per share [10]

Group 1 - The State Council is researching standards and policies for government procurement of domestic products, which is seen as an important measure to improve the procurement system and ensure fair competition [1] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity and meet funding needs, with operations determined by liquidity management [1] - In the steel industry, there has been an increase in the scale of maintenance at steel mills, with 12 provinces involved, affecting production by approximately 29.96 million tons this week [1] Group 2 - In the soybean meal sector, actual soybean crushing volume reached 2.4275 million tons with an operating rate of 67.76%, which is 30,100 tons higher than estimated [1] - The lithium carbonate price index for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 73,534 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan [1] - The PVC industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 76.96%, down 2.98% from the previous period, with specific methods showing varying declines [1] Group 3 - The styrene industry reported a daily profit of -411 yuan per ton for non-integrated units, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous working day [1] - As of September 19, the Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1,198.21 points, a decrease of 199.90 points from the previous period [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, with an average of $62 per barrel in the second to fourth quarters of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the transformation of the shipping service industry in the Shanghai Lingang New Area, showcasing a "one-stop" digital platform that enhances efficiency and promotes green and intelligent development [1][2][3] - The Lingang New Area International Shipping Service Center has attracted numerous shipping service companies, integrating various functions such as administrative services, green and digital innovation, and high-end talent training [1][2] - The digital transformation significantly improves operational efficiency by streamlining processes from multiple submissions to a single-window acceptance, and implementing "no-touch" customs clearance for vehicles [2] Group 2 - The center features advanced training facilities for high-quality talent development, utilizing simulation and virtual reality technologies to provide immersive training experiences for maritime professionals [3] - The establishment of a green low-carbon development innovation center supports the shipping industry's transition to sustainable practices, including the development of a public service platform for green fuel certification [2][3] - The Lingang International Shipping Service Center plays a crucial role in the construction of Shanghai as an international shipping hub, contributing to global shipping industry transformation and international trade development [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]