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不买了!中国一船订单都没下,特朗普求情也不管用,美国自作自受
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by American farmers due to the absence of Chinese buyers for their agricultural products, particularly soybeans, despite a record harvest season [1][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Market Dynamics - American farmers are experiencing a significant increase in corn and soybean production, with most states reporting yields higher than last year [1]. - The lack of orders from China has left farmers anxious, as they had anticipated strong demand from this key market [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market share in China has drastically declined from nearly 50% in 2016 to only 20% currently, with Brazil capturing 70% of the market [1]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Political Implications - The trade tensions initiated by President Trump's policies have led to retaliatory measures from China, resulting in decreased demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. - Trump's recent plea for increased soybean orders from China has been met with criticism, as many attribute the current market situation to his administration's trade decisions [1][3]. - The article suggests that for any improvement in trade relations, Trump must reconsider and eliminate unreasonable tariffs to rebuild trust with China [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - American farmers are left hoping that China will not completely eliminate U.S. soybeans from its market, although this trend appears increasingly likely [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the U.S. and China, suggesting that a stable trade relationship is essential for the benefit of both nations [6].
玉米类市场周报:现货市场疲软,期货维持偏弱调整-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bearish trading strategy for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures are in a weak trend due to increased US production and inventory, upcoming new - grain harvest in China, and sufficient supply. Corn starch futures also show a weak trend as the industry's operating rate rises while demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [7][8][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA raised the production and ending stocks of US corn in the 2025/26 season. The new grain in Northeast China will be on the market in September, and the supply is relatively loose. The spot market price is under pressure, and the overall trend of corn is weak [8] - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2498 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. The operating rate of the corn starch industry has rebounded, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, showing an increase in inventory. The overall trend of starch is weak [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed down with a total position of 955,265 lots, an increase of 126,808 lots from the previous week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed down narrowly with a total position of 202,789 lots, an increase of 64,168 lots from the previous week [16] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 97,205, an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 20,670, also an increase in net short positions compared to the previous week [22] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 103,290, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [28] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,373.53 yuan/ton, and the basis between the November active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 198 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton and 2,950 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 352 yuan/ton [33][38] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 29 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] - **Futures Spread**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 323 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [54] - **Substitute Spread**: As of August 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.5 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,384.71 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 51.79 yuan/ton. In the 34th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 157 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [58] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn Supply**: As of August 15, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 66.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 151.1 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 32.9 million tons, an increase of 8.2 million tons week - on - week. In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 6 million tons, a decrease of 103 million tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 10 million tons compared to the previous month. As of August 21, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week [48][67][71] - **Corn Demand**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 compared to the previous month. As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 28.85 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head. As of August 21, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 46 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 685 yuan/ton, - 551 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 168 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [75][79][84] - **Corn Starch Supply**: As of August 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 314.7 million tons, a decrease of 7.5%. From August 14 to August 20, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from the previous week. The national corn starch output was 27.06 million tons, a decrease of 1.86 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 52.3%, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week. As of August 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 133.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous week [88][92] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of August 22, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95]
“大伙儿的精气神提起来了!”——来自三省七县脱贫村的调研之二
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-08-22 08:43
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of poverty-stricken areas and their residents from merely surviving to actively pursuing development, highlighting the importance of internal motivation and capabilities for sustainable growth in rural revitalization [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Mindset - Residents have shifted from "waiting for food" to "striving for the future," with significant improvements in their living conditions and aspirations [2][4]. - The establishment of a complete education system in areas like the Baijiawan settlement has led to improved educational outcomes, with students achieving higher academic performance [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Development - The article illustrates how individuals like Li Guozhi have expanded their agricultural practices, leading to increased income and community engagement in farming [4][5]. - The establishment of cooperatives and the introduction of new agricultural practices have transformed local economies, as seen in places like Hebei's Dajingzi Village, where potato farming has become profitable [4][5]. Group 3: Skills and Capabilities - There is a notable shift from merely having jobs to excelling in them, with local talent and skills becoming crucial for rural industry development [6][7]. - Training programs and local initiatives have empowered residents to enhance their skills, leading to better job performance and entrepreneurship [8][9]. Group 4: Industry and Innovation - The development of new industries, such as the silver ear mushroom industry in Tongjiang County, showcases how local resources can be leveraged for economic growth [9][10]. - The integration of tourism and agriculture in places like Yunnan's Baozang Village demonstrates the potential for creating diverse revenue streams and enhancing local economies [10][11]. Group 5: Overall Impact - The cumulative effect of these changes is a significant reduction in the gap between impoverished and other regions, with rural revitalization efforts gaining momentum [11].
河北涞水:电商助农特产品走出大山
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-22 04:47
Core Insights - The article highlights the efforts of Lai Shui County in Hebei Province to leverage media and e-commerce for rural revitalization, particularly focusing on the promotion of local agricultural products like hemp walnuts [1][2][3] Group 1: Media and E-commerce Initiatives - Lai Shui County has implemented a "media + market linkage" strategy to enhance the sales of local agricultural products, resulting in significant sales growth for hemp walnuts [1][2] - A specialized task force has been established to learn from advanced experiences in "media +" empowerment for rural revitalization, aiming to broaden perspectives and explore new cooperation models [2] - The county has organized over 50 events this year, including product exhibitions and competitions, to promote local specialties and train over 3,000 farmers and business personnel in e-commerce skills [2] Group 2: Product Market Expansion - Traditional industries in Lai Shui, such as hemp walnuts, cloisonné, copper hot pot, and redwood furniture, are expanding their market reach beyond the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to southern markets like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - The sales revenue of hemp walnuts has increased by over 100 million yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating strong market demand [3]
新陈大豆供应平稳,花生市场信心不足
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of new and old soybeans is stable, while the peanut market lacks confidence. The soybeans futures showed a weak oscillation, and the low - protein auction soybeans prices are under pressure. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment, with the demand side remaining sluggish and traders lacking confidence [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4036.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 224, up 10 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - In the northeast market, soybean prices in some producing areas dropped slightly due to the decline in low - protein prices and the impact of state - reserve auctions. In the sales areas, the trading volume was relatively low due to high temperatures and poor demand. Specific prices in different regions of Heilongjiang showed some declines or remained stable [1] - The bean - one futures showed a weak oscillation. The auctions of central and local soybeans continued, and the lower reserve price increased the transaction rate, but the Heilongjiang provincial - reserve soybean auction failed. The soybeans in the northeast and inland areas are in the late growth stage with good growth and weather conditions. High - protein soybean prices were stable, while low - protein soybean prices were under pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7782.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous day. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 318.00, up 46.00 (+16.91%) from the previous day [3] - The peanut market is in the transition period between new and old peanuts. The average price of old peanuts is stable, and they are being cleared from inventory. New peanuts' prices are rising steadily, and the number of new - peanut - listing areas and the supply are increasing. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment. The overall trading atmosphere of domestic peanut spots is average, and the demand is sluggish [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5]
油脂油料早报-20250821
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:34
Group 1: Report Core Views - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed crop output is expected to be 5.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, with the forecast range between 5.4 - 6.3 million tons. The near - normal temperatures by October will support crop growth, but the cooling forecast from August 25 - 31 is worth attention due to possible light frost in some areas [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% compared to the same period last month, reaching 929,051 tons [1] - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil annual output from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 to meet the growing demand. To achieve this goal, BPDP has implemented human resource improvement plans and the government has launched a plantation revival plan [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 14 - 20, 2025 are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [1][8]
“美国农民难以长期承受”,美大豆协会呼吁特朗普取消关税
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-08-20 22:45
Group 1 - The American Soybean Association urges the U.S. government to reach an agreement with China to eliminate tariffs and encourage significant purchases of U.S. soybeans, warning of severe long-term economic consequences for U.S. agriculture if China continues to avoid U.S. soybeans [1] - Due to ongoing trade tensions and negotiations, China is accelerating its soybean purchases from Brazil and has not pre-purchased U.S. soybeans for the upcoming harvest, causing concern among traders and farmers [1] - The American Soybean Association highlights the decline in soybean prices while production costs for farmers have significantly increased, putting financial pressure on growers [1] Group 2 - In the 2023-2024 marketing year, China purchased 54% of U.S. soybean exports, totaling $13.2 billion, but the USDA reports a 39% year-on-year decline in U.S. soybean imports from China for the first half of 2025 [2] - The White House states that President Trump is focused on farmers' interests and aims to create a fair competitive environment, having previously urged China to triple its soybean purchases, which led to a temporary price increase [2] - Farmers express skepticism about the feasibility of achieving the target for increased soybean purchases from China [2]
【国富期货早间看点】Pro Farmer作物巡回调查已开启 25/26年巴西大豆种植面积或增1.2%至2.9%-20250820
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flow. It also provides updates on crop conditions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and regulatory developments. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions. CNF quotes and relevant information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - US soybean - producing states will have below - normal temperatures and mostly near - to above - median precipitation from August 24th to 28th. Cool and dry weather is expected in the US Midwest in late August, with a 20 - 40 mm rain deficit in 10 - 15 days, and a possible warm and moderately rainy pattern in early September [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to stay above 4300 ringgit. Pro Farmer estimates soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. USDA reports soybean exports, and the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area may increase by 1.2% - 2.9%. Brazilian 8 - month soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to rise. A Brazilian regulatory body plans to investigate the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". EU 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year. Australian rapeseed exports have declined, and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped [7][9][12]. 国内供需 - On August 19th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 170% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill startup rate dropped slightly. China's refined edible vegetable oil production in July increased by 4.0% year - on - year. National soybean oil port inventory increased. China's feed production in July decreased slightly from the previous month but increased by 5.95% year - on - year. Agricultural product prices showed some changes [13][14]. 04 Macro要闻 国际要闻 - US retail sales, new home construction, and API crude oil inventory data are reported. The euro - zone's current account balance increased. Malaysia's economic growth may slow due to US tariffs [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on August 19th. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. China's fiscal revenue from January to July increased slightly year - on - year, and securities transaction stamp duty increased significantly [17]. 05资金流向 - On August 19th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 157.57 billion yuan, with 27.53 billion yuan from commodity futures and 130.04 billion yuan from stock - index futures. Agricultural product futures had a net inflow, while other sectors had net outflows [19][20]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant information provided.
农业农村部扎实推进优势特色产业科技创新
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of modern agricultural industrial parks in promoting high-quality agricultural development through policy support and resource optimization [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has cumulatively supported the construction of 400 modern agricultural industrial park projects from 2017 to 2025, establishing a leading pattern for agricultural modernization [1] - The initiative encourages the integration of various industries, promoting rural leisure tourism and the development of diverse agricultural-related industries [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is advancing technological innovation in key industries such as peanuts and broilers, with over 40 new peanut varieties created since 2024 and a market share of over 28% for domestic white-feathered broilers [2] - The promotion of mechanization in peanut production is being supported through subsidies for relevant machinery, enhancing the overall equipment level in the industry [2] - The establishment of a national peanut processing technology research center aims to improve processing techniques and expand product categories in the meat chicken sector [2] Group 3 - The Ministry is focused on building a regional peanut trading center and enhancing the agricultural product market system, with significant improvements in infrastructure and market management [3] - Since 2011, the Ministry has collaborated with 20 provinces to establish 33 national agricultural product markets, facilitating the development of regional and local markets [3] - Future plans include continued support for modern agricultural industrial park projects and the development of a high-quality agricultural product market system [3]
宁夏农产品出口十年增近四倍 逾50项农业技术惠及亚非国家
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-19 18:27
Core Insights - Ningxia has made significant progress in agricultural foreign exchange cooperation through various initiatives, including agricultural exchange platforms, upgrading agricultural product export trade, and modernizing agricultural industries [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Exchange and Cooperation - Ningxia has successfully hosted six agricultural activities at the China-Arab Expo and established two national-level platforms to support agricultural foreign cooperation [1] - The total import and export value of Ningxia's agricultural products reached 2.39 billion yuan in 2024, nearly quadrupling since 2012, with exports amounting to 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [1] Group 2: Industry Development and Branding - Ningxia focuses on six national-level advantageous specialty industry clusters, including wine, goji berries, milk, beef, and cool-season vegetables, achieving a processing conversion rate of 73% for agricultural products [1] - Three brands, including Helan Mountain wine, Zhongning goji berries, and Yanchi sheep, rank among the top 25 in China's regional brand value [1] Group 3: Technology Transfer and International Cooperation - Ningxia has introduced over 20 foreign high-quality varieties of melons, vegetables, and forage, and established 12 Sino-foreign cooperative smart agriculture demonstration zones [2] - The region has promoted over 50 applicable agricultural technologies to developing countries, enhancing local agricultural development in regions such as Africa, West Asia, and Central Asia [2]