新华社北京2月2日电 综述｜多重因素共振 全球市场遭遇"黑色星期一" 新华社记者杜静 受美联储货币政策预期转"鹰"、技术性调整压力、贵金属市场震荡外溢效应和市场担忧科技股估值 过高等因素影响，全球市场2日遭遇"黑色星期一"。贵金属市场经历"过山车"行情，原油市场大幅下 跌，部分股市显著下挫甚至触发"临时停牌"。 国际市场贵金属价格2日开盘后大幅跳水。纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司 4423.2美元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌超6%；白银期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超 9%。现货市场同样惨淡，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4402.06美元，跌幅超10%；白银价格 盘中一度跌至每盎司71.312美元，跌幅超16%。此后，金价银价有所反弹。 原油市场方面，纽约商品交易所轻质原油期货价格2日一度跌至每桶61.43美元，伦敦布伦特原油期 货价格下探至每桶65.45美元，与前一交易日收盘价相比跌幅均超5%。 股市方面，韩国股市2日遭遇重挫，韩国综合股价指数收于4949.67点，比前一交易日下跌274.69 点，跌幅达5.26%，一度启动暂停程序化交易的"临时停牌"措施。印度尼西亚股市2日早 ...

国际黄金和白银价格近期刷新历史高点后出现剧烈波动。与1月29日创下的历史最高点相比，2日白银价 格盘中低点的累计跌幅已达40%，金价累计跌幅约20%。 分析人士认为，美国总统特朗普1月30日宣布提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主 席，市场对美联储未来货币政策"鹰派"预期浓厚，刺激贵金属价格大幅回调。与此同时，芝加哥商业交 易所集团日前宣布上调金属期货保证金，也令市场承压。保证金要求上调通常对相关合约不利，因为更 高的资本支出会抑制投机参与、降低流动性，并迫使交易者平仓。 柯尔凯思交易公司首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示，贵金属市场的剧烈波动令交易员感到不安。由于 保证金上涨，贵金属被迫平仓，波及其他资产，金银暴跌实际上产生了多米诺骨牌效应，扩散至整个市 场。 原油市场方面，纽约商品交易所轻质原油期货价格2日一度跌至每桶61.43美元，伦敦布伦特原油期货价 格下探至每桶65.45美元，与前一交易日收盘价相比跌幅均超5%。 新华社北京2月2日电 综述｜多重因素共振 全球市场遭遇"黑色星期一" 新华社记者杜静 受美联储货币政策预期转"鹰"、技术性调整压力、贵金属市场震荡外溢效应和市场担忧科技股估值过 ...

新华社北京2月2日电 综述|多重因素共振 全球市场遭遇"黑色星期一" 新华社记者杜静 受美联储货币政策预期转"鹰"、技术性调整压力、贵金属市场震荡外溢效应和市场担忧科技股估值过高 等因素影响，全球市场2日遭遇"黑色星期一"。贵金属市场经历"过山车"行情，原油市场大幅下跌，部 分股市显著下挫甚至触发"临时停牌"。 纽约斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家彼得·卡尔迪洛表示，沃什以前被认为是货币政策鹰派，但 最近他似乎已与特朗普保持一致，未来其政策是否会受到白宫的影响受到投资者关注，这种不确定性正 加剧市场波动。（完） 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 国际市场贵金属价格2日开盘后大幅跳水。纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4423.2美 元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌超6%；白银期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超9%。现货市 场同样惨淡，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4402.06美元，跌幅超10%；白银价格盘中一度跌 至每盎司71.312美元，跌幅超16%。此后，金价银价有所反弹。 国际黄金和白银价格近期刷新历史高点后出现剧烈波动。与1月29日创下的历史最高点相比，2日白银价 格盘中低点的累计 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to high volatility, with a focus on avoiding risky trades and maintaining discipline in trading strategies [3][4][21] - The commodity market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a broad decline observed in various sectors, particularly in precious metals and energy [5][21][22] - The strongest sector identified is the chemical sector, specifically in caustic soda and PVC, while the weakest sectors include precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and crude oil [6][22] Group 2 - The core strategy involves going long on the strongest sectors and shorting the weakest ones, with a focus on maintaining a light position in weak commodities to avoid potential losses [7][24] - Specific strategies executed include automatic exit from PVC positions upon market decline and avoiding deep losses in precious metals and crude oil [9][10][25][26] - Risk management has been emphasized through systematic market analysis and strict stop-loss measures, successfully avoiding significant losses in weak sectors [11][27][28] Group 3 - Market drivers include geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. monetary policy expectations, which have led to a bearish sentiment in the market [13][29] - The analysis framework used has effectively captured signals of market weakness, although there is a need for improved strategies for strong sectors to adapt to sudden market changes [14][30] - Continuous monitoring of U.S. Federal Reserve policies and global geopolitical developments is necessary for dynamic adjustment of trading strategies [15][31]

Market Overview - On February 2, the market experienced fluctuations with all three major indices falling over 2%, and the Sci-Tech 50 index dropping over 3%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.46% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.83 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4,700 stocks in the market declined, with 125 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed resilience, with Huangtai Liquor achieving three consecutive trading limits, and Jinhuijiu hitting two limits in three days. Water Well Liquor also reached the daily limit up [3] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and semiconductor sectors faced significant declines. The non-ferrous metals sector was particularly hard hit, with multiple gold stocks such as Zhaojin Gold and Sichuan Gold experiencing limit downs [3][5] - The oil and gas sector also suffered, with domestic crude oil and fuel futures contracts hitting the limit down, both dropping approximately 7%. Brent crude oil futures fell to $66 per barrel, down 4.67%, while WTI crude oil futures dropped below $62 per barrel, down 4.94% [5][6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index expanding its losses to 4% in the afternoon. The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.23%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.36% [6][7] - The precious metals sector in Hong Kong also faced significant losses, with stocks like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold dropping over 12% [7] - The three major telecom operators in China collectively weakened, with China Unicom down over 6%, China Telecom down over 5%, and China Mobile down over 2%. This was influenced by an adjustment in the value-added tax rate for telecom services from 6% to 9%, which will impact the revenue and profits of these companies [7]

4636人次激情投票，36张百元礼品卡+7份财经日历全部送出，新浪财经1月社区调查圆满收官！本次聚 焦四大资产价格和三大国际事件，吸引大批专业投资者和资深交易员的深度参与。用户看涨情绪直接冲 顶，资产价格预判集体跑偏，对国际大事的判断却精准度拉满！ 四大资产预判：集体跑偏！贵金属看涨情绪上头 贵金属方面，伦敦金（现货黄金）一度飙升至5596.33美元/盎司的历史新高，但随后急转直下，月底最 终收报5860.39美元/盎司。伦敦银（现货白银）在1月29日创历史高位121.49美元/盎司后，在30日收跌 26.83%，报84.43美元/盎司。市场分析提出，黄金和白银冲高回落，可归结为投资者的"获利了结"离 场。在黄金和白银创下历史新高后，前期布局的多头兑现收益，叠加凯文·沃什提名出任下任美联储主 席，预期推动美元反弹，带动金价回调。 由于贵金属前期走势持续强劲，用户的看涨情绪普遍高涨。近8成参与调研的用户笃定金价能冲破 5200 美元/盎司大关，仅有8%少数派保持谨慎，押注金价在4800-5000美元区间波动。 点击进入投票 白银方面，7成用户认为白银将收于110以上，仅7%用户给出保守预测，认为白银将收于90美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The price center dropped significantly to below 16,000 yuan/ton during the session, closing down 3.73% at 15,980 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall decline of the energy - chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 2,343 yuan/ton, and the lowest dropped to 2,243 yuan/ton, closing down 3.92% at 2,252 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 26 yuan/ton. Supported by the bearish atmosphere, methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of weak volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 485.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest dropped to 449.0 yuan/barrel, closing down 7.02% at 449.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weakened and the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve increased, the crude oil premium significantly retracted, and the oil price started a short - term correction [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the scale of production and sales has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. The production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period last year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 29.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 7.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 83.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China remained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 18,190 contracts and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 27, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,191 contracts and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | - 380 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,255 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | 2,252 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 453.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.0 yuan/barrel | - 21.8 yuan/barrel | + 4.0 yuan/barrel | + 21.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][40][42]

大类资产与基金周报（20260126-20260130）—— [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2026-02-01 金融工程周报 黄金冲高回落，商品基金涨幅 4.75% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Summary] . 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 4117.95，涨跌幅-0.44%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为-1.62%、-3.78%、-0.09%、1.13%、0.08%、-2.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic crash, with gold prices nearing $4,400 per ounce and silver prices dropping below $72 per ounce, erasing significant gains made throughout the year [1][3][15]. Market Performance - On the previous Friday, gold and silver prices plummeted, with silver falling 26% in less than 20 hours, marking the largest single-day drop in history, while gold dropped 9%, the worst performance since the 1980s [3][17]. - The domestic futures market also saw a "limit down" trend, with significant declines across various sectors, including energy and precious metals, where contracts for SC crude oil and fuel oil hit their limits with declines of 7.02% and 7.01% respectively [3][17]. Regulatory Changes - CME raised margin requirements for Comex gold and silver futures in response to the volatility, increasing gold margins from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, effective February 2 [4][18]. - The Thailand Futures Exchange expanded its price limits for gold and silver futures due to significant price drops, allowing for greater fluctuations in trading [4][18]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the recent declines in precious metals are driven by a deleveraging process rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions, indicating a simultaneous sell-off of precious metals and risk assets [5][19]. - CBA commodity strategist Vivek Dhar noted that the market's reaction to Kevin Walsh's nomination as Fed Chair and the strengthening dollar has pressured precious metals, but he views the current drop as an adjustment rather than a fundamental change, maintaining a bullish outlook for gold prices in Q4 [7][21]. - CMC Markets' Christopher Forbes described the situation as a typical deleveraging phase, where previously accumulated leverage is being cleared, leading to a concentrated sell-off in liquid assets [8][22]. Market Dynamics - The rapid price changes in precious metals are seen as a result of position liquidation rather than a clean macro revaluation, with potential for further declines depending on whether forced selling continues [9][23]. - Analysts from Singapore's OCBC Bank highlighted that the ongoing decline reflects a combination of technical and emotional pressures, with sensitivity to dollar movements and Fed policy uncertainty exacerbating the situation [9][23]. Institutional Role - Increased trading activity from institutions has been noted, as they seek liquidity and manage positions amid heightened volatility, which has also impacted other markets like Bitcoin and equities [13][26]. - The volatility in gold and silver has triggered liquidity pressures and margin calls among institutional investors, contributing to broader market declines [13][26].

今年以来全球大类资产呈现显著分化态势，股票市场整体波动率维持低位，而贵金属、外汇及大宗商品 市场波动加剧，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）未能充分反映当前宏观层面的风险信号，市场恐 慌情绪从股市转向大宗商品与汇率赛道。 相关美联储主席提名落地后，金属价格出现下跌，但市场波动率仍维持高位。Susquehanna International Group衍生品市场情报联席主管Chris Murphy表示："这一提名决定并未指向会催生市场过热的政策转 向，而此前市场对黄金的过热炒作正是贵金属遭到抛售的核心原因。如果你问我，黄金每天飙升更可 怕，还是在大幅上涨后进入盘整阶段更可怕，就实际风险而言，我认为黄金每天飙升更可怕。" 当前市场资金在黄金与股票间的配置关系出现变化，部分基金通过期权工具押注两者相关性变动，此前 黄金与股票相关性长期维持在零附近，当前已出现小幅上升。汇率市场成为资金押注波动放大的重要赛 道，美元兑日元隐含波动率出现显著上行，短期汇率波动幅度超过4%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 今年以来，金价受相关政策支撑持续走高，即便经 ...