特朗普总统在一次竞选集会上表示，消费者价格正在大幅下降，试图安抚选民对美国生活成本的担忧。 在宾夕法尼亚州的一家赌场内，特朗普告诉支持者：我的首要任务是让美国重新变得负担得起。尽管汽 油和鸡蛋价格有所回落，但其他食品价格却在上涨，许多美国人依然对住房、育儿和医疗保健的高昂费 用表示不满。 在最近的州和地方选举中，民主党利用特朗普在经济问题上的短板，令许多共和党人对 即将到来的中期选举感到忧虑。这场活动在宾夕法尼亚州一个关键选区举行，白宫表示这将是特朗普一 系列竞选集会的开始，目的是向选民传达他的经济政策。 然而，在演讲中，特朗普再次将人们对生活 成本的焦虑归咎于民主党，称这些担忧只是骗局。他将经济困境归咎于拜登和美国央行的利率政策。美 联储已经两次将利率降至约3.9%，金融市场预计该行将在本周晚些时候进一步降息。然而，通货膨胀 率仍然维持在3%，远高于美联储设定的2%的目标。 美国的经济数据呈现出喜忧参半的局面。美国消费者信心指数在11月降至春季以来的最低水平，但股市 依然保持在历史高位附近。专家预测今年美国经济将增长1.9%，虽然低于去年的2.8%，但仍超出预 期。近期一些数据显示，在今年早些时候就业市场增 ...

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.4%[2] - In October, non-farm employment decreased by 105,000, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw an increase of 69,000 jobs[3] - Education and healthcare sectors were significant contributors, adding 65,000 jobs in November[8] - The construction sector improved with an addition of 28,000 jobs in November[8] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate[14] - The unemployment rate for Black or African American individuals rose significantly, indicating structural issues in the labor market[14] - Average duration of unemployment decreased, suggesting some easing in re-employment pressures[16] Wage Trends - Average wage growth showed signs of slowing, with service sector wages dropping to approximately 3.4% year-on-year[20] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector remained stable at around 4.0%[20] Monetary Policy Implications - Following the employment data release, the market slightly increased expectations for a rate cut in January, now at 26%[23] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data[23]

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4%[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw a rebound with 69,000 jobs added, driven mainly by the education and healthcare sectors[4][6] - The service production sector contributed significantly, with 50,000 jobs added in November, while the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs[8] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate of 4.6% in November is the highest in nearly four years, indicating challenges in the labor market[14] - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to upward pressure on the unemployment rate due to limited job absorption capacity[14] Wage Trends - Average wage growth has slowed, with service sector wages increasing by approximately 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure from wages[20] - The goods-producing sector's wages remain relatively high at around 4.0% year-on-year, but show signs of stabilization[20] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market slightly raised expectations for a rate cut in January, with a 26% probability noted[23] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data and inflation trends[23]

Group 1 - The company Tianjin TEDA Co., Ltd. announced that after the recent guarantee, the total amount of guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries is 10.778 billion yuan, which accounts for 187.9% of the company's latest audited net assets [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Tianjin TEDA is as follows: wholesale industry accounts for 89.05%, environmental management accounts for 9.89%, construction industry accounts for 0.44%, textile and apparel industry accounts for 0.37%, and real estate accounts for 0.26% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, the market capitalization of Tianjin TEDA is 6.2 billion yuan [2]

热点报告——外汇期货 美国 11 月非农喜忧参半， 失业率持续抬升 走势评级： 美元：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 17 日 ★ 美国 11 月非农喜忧参半，失业率持续抬升： 美国 11 月非农新增就业 6.4 万人，超出市场预期的 5 万人，10 月 减少 10.5 万人，主要受政府裁员影响。过去 12 个月平均每月新增 7.8 万人，劳动力市场维持韧性。8 月新增就业人数由减少 4000 人 下修至减少 2.6 万，9 月由新增 11.9 万人下修至 10.8 人，合计下修 3.3 万人。失业率回升至 4.6%，高于市场预期和前值，劳动参与率 小幅回升至 62.5%；时薪环比增速 0.1%，较前值回落，低于预期的 0.3%，同比增速 3.5%，低于预期和前值。数据公布后，美元指数 和十年期美债收益率震荡下行，黄金高位震荡，美股冲高回落。 分行业而言，新增就业主要来自于：教育和医疗保健(6.5 万人）， 建筑业(2.8 万人)，专业和商业服务（1.2 万人），零售业（6200 人）。运输和仓储行业、制造业和联邦政府延续裁员态势，此前作 为主要新增就业来源的休闲和酒店业也大幅裁员。 总体而言，9 ...

Group 1 - The latest survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) indicates a significant upward revision in the GDP growth forecast for Singapore in 2025, with the median forecast rising to 4.1% from 2.4% in September [1] - The strong performance of the economy in the third quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, has contributed to this upward revision, surpassing the previous forecast of 0.9% [1] - Growth expectations have been raised across major industries, with manufacturing seeing the most significant increase from 0.8% to 5.4%, while financial services, construction, and wholesale and retail trade also experienced upward adjustments [1] Group 2 - For 2026, the expected economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 2.3%, with inflation pressures anticipated to rise, forecasting overall inflation at 1.5% and core inflation at 1.3% [2] - Geopolitical tensions, including trade conflicts and wars, are viewed as the largest downside risk, with 100% of respondents highlighting this concern [2] - On the upside, 76.5% of respondents believe that the ongoing global tech cycle will be a major driver of Singapore's economic growth, alongside resilience in global growth and easing trade tensions [2]

尽管短期压力仍在，但法国建筑业联合会预计，2026年法国建筑业整体活动有望实现1.8%的小幅回 升，主要由新建住宅建设预计增长9.5%的前景拉动，前提是政府目前提交的预算草案能够顺利获得议 会通过。 新华财经巴黎12月16日电（记者李文昕）法国建筑业联合会（FFB）16日公布的数据显示，2025年法国 建筑业继续走弱，行业经济活动预计同比下降4%。不过，该协会预计，2026年该行业有望迎来小幅回 暖。 自2022年年中以来，法国建筑业持续承压，新建住宅市场低迷成为主要拖累因素。2024年，法国建筑业 经济活动已同比下降5.5%。其中，新建住宅建筑活动同比下降8.8%，而非住宅建筑（包括商业地产、 办公楼和酒店等）活动下降6.6%。 法国建筑业联合会主席萨勒龙表示，希望社会各界能够对当前形势形成"真正的警觉"。他指出，住房危 机仍在不断加剧，若长期得不到解决，未来很可能引发民众抗议。 就业方面，萨勒龙表示，法国建筑业2025年已减少约2万个岗位，2026年可能还将再流失约1万个岗位。 他估算，自2022年危机以来，该行业累计流失的就业岗位已达6.5万个。 相比之下，建筑改善与维护业务前景依旧偏弱。法国建筑业联合 ...

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 50,000 and recovering from a loss of 105,000 jobs in October[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%[15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.6%[15] Economic Insights - The rise in unemployment is attributed to a "technical" disruption from the government shutdown, which temporarily inflated the unemployment figures due to forced leave of federal employees[2] - Private sector employment remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025[2] - Retail data for October showed stability, with core retail sales growth exceeding expectations, indicating that consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is stabilizing[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the unexpected rise in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term[5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 44.1% in April and 34.5% in July, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January 2026 stands at 73.4%[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in September, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among younger demographics[4] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 228,000 in November, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on temporary unemployment[4] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October[42] - Year-on-year wage growth also decreased to 3.5%, compared to 3.7% in October, suggesting reduced inflationary pressures[42]

美国劳工统计局数据显示，11月医疗保健和建筑业的就业岗位增加，而联邦政府的工作岗位继续减少（11月减少0.6万人，10月减少16.2万人，原因是部分接受延期辞职的联邦雇员离开了联邦政府）。 https://t.co/frqtMRkaL7 ...

根据世界银行最新发布《2025年12月柬埔寨经济展望》报告，预计柬埔寨2025年经济增长率将放缓至 4.8%，低于2024年的6%。 报告指出，房地产行业疲软、柬泰边境争端及美国关税上调等多重内外冲击，对该国经济活动造成显著 压力。具体来看，房地产市场低迷持续抑制国内需求与建筑行业活力；柬泰边境紧张局势不仅扰乱了双 边贸易往来，还对劳动力市场与旅游业造成连锁冲击；此外，美国自2025年8月1日起对柬埔寨所有进口 商品加征19%关税，进一步加剧了外部环境的不确定性。 世界银行驻柬埔寨国家经理Tania Mayer表示，柬埔寨正处于应对内外双重冲击的关键挑战期，强有力 的缓冲机制与针对性改革将是抵御经济压力的核心支撑。她强调，保障返乡人员等弱势家庭的基本生活 需求仍需重点关注，同时需通过改善营商环境、扶持非正规企业发展、简化正规化流程等举措，释放经 济增长潜力，营造公平竞争市场环境，进而创造更高质量的就业机会。报告显示，尽管柬埔寨经济增长 面临压力，但仍然展现出一定韧性，该国国际储备状况保持健康，能够支付约7.5个月的进口需求，公 共债务水平较低，约占国内生产总值（GDP）的26%，债务可持续性良好，2025年平 ...