由于东京股市两大股指此前三个交易日连续下跌，日经股指累计下跌超过2500点，19日早盘部分投 资者逢低买入操作增加，两大股指小幅高开。其后，受隔夜纽约股市三大股指全面下跌、英伟达财报即 将发布前投资者观望情绪 浓重 等因素影响，半导体相关股票全面承压，大盘上涨乏力。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块涨跌不一，机械、金属制品、水产和农林业等板块跌幅 靠前，石油及煤炭制品、零售业、房地产业等板块领涨。（完） 当天，投资者对中日关系恶化的忧虑继续影响市场，资生堂、寿司郎公司以及打造漫画作品"鬼灭 之刃"和凯蒂猫等IP的企业索尼集团和三丽鸥等中国市场相关股票反弹乏力、继续下跌。分析人士指 出，当前局势下，相关公司业绩前景难料，投资者或会避免投资其股票。 新华社东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）日本东京股市两大股指19日继续承压下跌。日经225种股票 平均价格指数收盘下跌0.34%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数下跌0.17%。 至收盘时，日经股指下跌165.28点，收于48537.70点；东证股指下跌5.52点，收于3245.58点。 ...

10月18日，在全球财富管理论坛·2025上海苏河湾大会上，上交所副理事长霍瑞戎表示，新一轮科技革 命正在加速演进，人工智能、生物医药等技术快速发展，不仅会深度影响社会经济活动，也将深刻改 变"科技—产业—金融"的融合发展态势。 霍瑞戎表示，为顺应这一趋势，上交所将始终锚定服务国家战略、推动高质量发展为目标，持续提升上 市公司质量，营造长期资金入市的良好生态，不断增强市场的包容性、适应性和吸引力。 二是以转型升级为驱动，积极更新旧功能。鼓励传统行业运用新技术加快实现转型升级，上半年沪市传 统产业钢铁、机械以技术创新为驱动，持续向高端智能跃升，钢铁和机械等传统行业净利润分别提升 235%和21%。 三是多措并举活跃并购重组，支持新旧动能转换。积极落实"并购六条"，支持上市公司用好用足并购重 组工具，加快实现产业整合和转型升级。今年以来，沪市上市公司披露资产重组602单，其中重大资产 重组76单，较上年分别增长19%和117%。 "投融资协调发展"方面，上交所主要围绕产品多样化、市场生态和服务精准，支持中长期资金入市，健 全投融资协调发展的市场格局。 霍瑞戎提到，一是持续完善ETF产品谱系，加大中低波动产品创新力 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with production and sales reaching 1.3015 million and 1.2943 million units respectively from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [5][8] - The unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 stands at 17.3%, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [5][8] - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and trade systems in Beijing, aiming to boost consumer spending [5][8] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,080.49, down 0.92% [3] - The A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext at 16.36 and 49.18 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][11] Industry Analysis - The communication industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in October, with a growth of 0.24% [16] - The semiconductor industry has shown a robust performance in Q3, with a revenue of 1,741.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.07% and a net profit growth of 48.93% [29][30] - The sports nutrition market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.56% expected from 2024 to 2030, driven by a large and growing population of fitness enthusiasts [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as software development, cultural media, internet services, and semiconductors for short-term investment opportunities [9][12] - In the communication sector, it is recommended to pay attention to light communication, AI smartphones, and telecom operators due to their strong growth potential [19][20] - The mechanical industry shows signs of recovery, with recommendations to invest in cyclical sectors like engineering machinery and oil and gas equipment, as well as emerging technology sectors [24][25]

Market Overview - On November 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.65%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.29%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 1%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.16% [5] - The best-performing sectors on November 18 were Media (+1.6%), Computer (+0.93%), Electronics (+0.12%), and Food & Beverage (+0.03%), while the worst-performing sectors were Coal (-3.17%), Electric Equipment (-2.97%), Steel (-2.85%), Nonferrous Metals (-2.8%), and Basic Chemicals (-2.67%) [5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 18 was 1,946 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.466 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Important Recommendations Company: Baiao Intelligent (300836) - The recommendation logic highlights the company's positioning in customized automation equipment, with opportunities in munitions and AI computing power expected to enhance profitability [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,055 million, 1,368 million, and 1,774 million yuan, with growth rates of 126.4%, 29.7%, and 29.7% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 122 million, 169 million, and 221 million yuan, with growth rates of 346.8%, 38.0%, and 30.6% respectively [6] Company: Lu Wei Optoelectronics (688401) - The recommendation is based on the company's rare capabilities in G11 and G8.6 high-generation platforms, benefiting from the IT-OLED market expansion and semiconductor recovery [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1,164.17 million, 1,568.91 million, and 2,120.63 million yuan, with growth rates of 32.96%, 34.77%, and 35.17% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 262.67 million, 366.91 million, and 514.29 million yuan, with growth rates of 37.62%, 39.68%, and 40.17% respectively [8] Key Insights Machinery Sector - The core viewpoint indicates a cyclical reversal, growth emergence, and acceleration of overseas expansion in the machinery sector [9] - The focus has shifted from emphasizing self-sufficiency to promoting overseas expansion, with growth expected in engineering machinery, industrial gases, and semiconductor equipment [9] Communication Sector - The communication sector is expected to see steady growth, with a focus on computing power, operator benefits, and satellite internet opportunities [10] - The domestic commercial rocket is anticipated to successfully conduct test flights, contributing to the sector's growth [10] Media and Internet Sector - The media and internet sector is projected to recover in 2026, driven by policy support, improved content supply, and accelerated AI commercialization [12] - The emphasis is on the structural improvement of content supply and the enhanced efficiency brought by AI applications in advertising and content creation [12] Computer Sector - The computer industry is witnessing a systematic breakthrough in domestic computing power, transitioning from technical advancements to commercialization of AI applications [14] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic computing power and the commercial realization of AI, with catalysts including breakthroughs in domestic computing power [14]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【钢铁】取向硅钢现货价格年内跌幅达到23%——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.11.10-11.16） 2025年2月8日，工信部出台《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》，且7月18日再次提及"推动落后产能有序 退出"，我们认为钢铁板块的盈利有望修复到历史均值水平，钢铁股的PB也有望随之修复。但建议防范期 货价格大幅波动风险 。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。 其他任何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号 均不是光大证券研究所的官方订阅号。 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【机械】聚变新 ...

Market Strategy - The current market is expected to experience limited index growth, with a judgment of "fluctuating up and down, sideways consolidation, slightly strengthening" [7] - Mid-cap blue chips are anticipated to rise again after four years, presenting investment opportunities in manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [7] - Related ETFs include 中证 500ETF (159922) and 中证 1000ETF (512100) [7] Chemical Industry - Global chemical supply is expected to contract due to high costs and aging equipment, leading to a structural adjustment in the supply chain [7] - European chemical sales account for approximately 13% of the global market, but high energy costs and punitive carbon taxes are causing continued capacity exit [7] - Domestic production progress has slowed, and with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the chemical sector is likely to enter a new prosperity cycle [7] - Related stock: 万华化学 (600309, Buy) [7] - Related ETF: 化工 ETF (159870/516020) [7] Financial Technology - Hong Kong's "FinTech 2030" strategy marks a shift from application-focused development to a more systemic, forward-looking, and ecological approach [7] - This strategy emphasizes the collaborative development of data, AI, resilience, and tokenization, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of mainland financial technology [7] - Related ETFs include 金融科技 ETF (159851/515720/159103) and 香港证券 ETF (513090) [7]

基金分析报告 周期成长基金池 202511：今年实现高超额 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 周期成长投资策略是在周期行业中挖掘能够脱离行业周期性，实现自身持续 成长的个股。在一些渗透率已经较高、且行业增长空间相对较小的偏周期行业中， 部分公司由于其具有强竞争优势和议价能力、好商业模式和战略布局、公司治理 和技术进步等优势，使得公司的业绩逐渐脱离了行业的周期性，实现较为稳定的 增长。当前选出的周期成长赛道主要分散在基础化工、机械、计算机等行业。 ➢ 周期成长型基金池：受市场风格切换影响较为明显。2014 年 2 月 7 日至 2025 年 11 月 11 日，基金池年化收益率为 17.46%，相对于偏股基金指数年化 超额收益为 7.63%，年化波动为 24.99%，年化夏普为 0.70，整体弹性较高。今 年以来周期成长组合实现 14.69%的超额收益。 ➢ 行业配置、选股和动态均贡献了较高的超额收益。基金池整体能力水平均衡， 在最新一期显著提升了消费和制造板块的占比，减少了对医药和 TMT 板块的配 置。 ➢ 周期成长型基金定义与精选。主要以持仓行业和个股的属性进行周期成长型 基金的定义，选择近一年基金重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting electricity demand-side management in the industrial sector by collecting typical case studies nationwide, with 34 companies and 30 products/technologies proposed for inclusion in the "National Typical Cases of Electricity Demand-Side Management in the Industrial Sector (2025)" list [1][4]. Summary by Sections Case Collection and Evaluation - The MIIT has initiated a nationwide collection of typical cases for electricity demand-side management in the industrial sector, involving preliminary reviews by local authorities and expert evaluations by the China Electricity Council [4]. Proposed Companies and Technologies - A total of 34 companies and 30 products/technologies are proposed for inclusion in the 2025 list, showcasing various management and technical measures aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing electricity consumption [4][5]. Implementation Results - Companies like Hebei Changan Automobile reported direct electricity savings of 13.45 million yuan in 2024 through various energy efficiency measures, including upgrading distribution networks and promoting the use of electric vehicles [6]. - Jilin Linglong Tire achieved a direct electricity savings of 9.31 million kWh in 2024 by improving power factor and utilizing distributed solar power [6]. - Budweiser (Jiamusi) implemented a series of energy optimization measures, resulting in a reduction of 491,900 kWh in electricity consumption in 2024 compared to 2023, alongside a 15% increase in production efficiency [7]. Management and Technical Measures - Companies are establishing dedicated energy management teams and systems to oversee electricity demand-side management, with many implementing advanced technologies such as smart energy management platforms and distributed energy systems [8][9]. - The use of renewable energy sources, such as solar power, is being emphasized, with companies like Jiangdong Hengkang New Materials planning significant solar and energy storage projects to enhance green development [8]. Public Participation and Feedback - The MIIT has opened a public consultation period for stakeholders to provide feedback on the proposed list of companies and technologies, encouraging transparency and community involvement in the electricity demand-side management initiative [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics driven by liquidity and the potential limitations of this bull market, drawing parallels with Japan's past market behavior during the 1990s [2][14][58]. Market Performance - Since the policy shift on "September 24," the domestic market has rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 47% and 50% from their lows, respectively [2]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a dynamic PE of 11.6, which is above the historical average, indicating that certain high-growth sectors may no longer be considered cheap [2][6]. Valuation Comparisons - While the Hang Seng Index appears cheaper than the S&P 500's dynamic valuation of 22.3, this comparison lacks context regarding profitability and liquidity conditions [6][8]. - The article highlights that the median PE of leading Chinese tech companies is 17.8, which is higher than their median net profit margin of 9.6%, suggesting potential overvaluation in some sectors [6][8]. Economic Indicators - Post-August, domestic demand indicators have weakened, and recent financial credit data supports the view that the credit cycle may be turning downward in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The article notes that risk premiums in traditional sectors like finance and real estate have dropped below historical averages, while new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are stabilizing around historical means [9][11]. Historical Context: Japan's Bull Markets - The article analyzes Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, which were characterized by significant government stimulus and external economic trends, yet ultimately faced limitations due to structural issues and market sentiment [14][58]. - Each of Japan's bull markets was initiated by substantial fiscal stimulus, with the first round starting in 1992, leading to a 54% rebound over 12.8 months [19][33]. Investor Behavior - During Japan's first bull market, individual investors' participation surged, while foreign investors' share declined, indicating a shift in market sentiment [28][30]. - The second bull market saw a similar pattern, with individual investor enthusiasm waning as foreign investor participation increased [40][42]. Conclusion and Implications - The article concludes that while liquidity can drive market rallies, without substantial improvements in the underlying economy, these rallies may face ceilings [58]. - It suggests that to break through current market limitations, structural policy changes focusing on technology and income expectations are necessary, rather than relying solely on traditional fiscal measures [67].

Domestic Macro - In October, major economic indicators showed a decline, with industrial, consumption, and investment growth rates slowing compared to September. The high base from last year's policy stimulus and the misalignment of holidays contributed to short-term disturbances, indicating insufficient domestic demand and external pressure that require policy support [1][7] - The industrial added value in October grew by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, while from January to October, it increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Real estate development investment from January to October was 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year [7] Foreign Macro - Overseas markets continued to experience fluctuations, particularly in US tech stocks, which affected sentiment in the A-share market. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.45% [8] - Several factors contributed to the ongoing adjustment in US stocks, including the absence of key economic data during the government shutdown, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and concerns over the sustainability of debt financing for AI giants [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable period despite some pressure on the fundamentals. The central bank has indicated that during this critical economic transition, it is not advisable to overly focus on total data changes [10][15] - The overall liquidity in the market is anticipated to stay relatively loose in the medium term, with the bond market likely to continue benefiting from this environment [15] Equity Market - The market is entering a period of total policy and profit vacuum, with accelerated rotation in the tech sector and increased highlights in low-position consumption and dividends. The high-yield, risk-free financial assets are diminishing, and the influx of new capital is far from over [20] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.01% last week, with 20 out of 31 industries showing gains [16][20] Investment Strategy - Emerging technology is expected to be a main focus, with cyclical consumption looking towards transformation. Attention should be given to sectors that have experienced prolonged corrections and significant adjustments [21][22] - Specific directions include technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial sectors, with a focus on areas such as internet, robotics, semiconductor, and consumer electronics [22]