Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market is expected to experience a slight rebound this week due to limited inventory pressure and planned shutdowns by some enterprises, despite the downward pressure from Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of last Thursday (November 6), the domestic first-grade soybean oil price was 8378 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The weekly average price was 8358 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 35 yuan/ton, or 0.42% [1]. - The soybean oil price was under pressure due to the accumulation of palm oil in Malaysia, but international soybean price increases provided cost support, limiting the price decline [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased, and demand has improved, providing support for the soybean oil market. As of October 31, port soybean oil inventory was 1.1808 million tons, down 3.27% from the previous period [3]. - The operating load rate of major soybean crushing enterprises has declined, leading to a decrease in soybean oil production. The total soybean crushing volume for the week was estimated at 2.0658 million tons, with soybean oil production around 371,800 tons, a decrease of 58,100 tons and 10,500 tons respectively from the previous week [3]. - Despite the weak soybean oil market last week, downstream markets increased purchases at lower prices, with the total transaction volume of scattered oil from major oil plants being approximately 90,300 tons, a slight increase of 12,400 tons from the previous period [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming release of the latest supply and demand data by Malaysia MPOB on November 10 is expected to show an increase in palm oil production and inventory for October, which may negatively impact the oilseed market and limit soybean oil price increases [3]. - However, due to increased shutdowns for maintenance by some enterprises, soybean oil supply is expected to be limited, and the strong pricing mentality among enterprises suggests that soybean oil may experience a volatile upward trend this week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the price is in a correction trend, pay attention to the risk of decline [12] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [16] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, the pessimistic sentiment may ferment, the market will fluctuate and adjust, but maintain a bullish view overall [19] - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term, the bond market will fluctuate, it is recommended to observe more and trade less [23] - Stock Index Futures: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [26] - Thermal Coal: The price is strongly supported, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan, pay attention to the risk of price correction [27] - Iron Ore: The price center is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [31] - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: For palm oil, the MPOB report is crucial; for soybean oil, focus on US bio - fuel policies and US soybean purchases [34] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term, and the 1 - 5 contract long spread can be held [39] - Cotton: In the short - term, it will fluctuate between 13300 - 13600 - 13800; in the long - term, it is cautiously bullish, wait for the opportunity to go long on dips [44] - Bean Meal: It is currently in a situation of "cost support below and supply - demand suppression above", and pay attention to actual soybean purchases and South American production forecasts [47] - Steel: In the short - term, consider the steel price to be in a weak and volatile trend [51] - Corn Starch: In the medium - long term, the spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink, it is recommended to trade in bands [53] - Red Dates: The market is in intense game, operate cautiously, and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the producing areas [56] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contracts [58] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [63] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamentals game. Consider shorting on rallies [66] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, and take profit at high levels [68] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, consider shorting on rallies [74] - Nickel: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after the inflection point of inventory accumulation [78] - Lead: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term; for spreads, wait and see; for internal - external spreads, consider long internal - short external spreads [80] - Zinc: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term; for spreads, consider long spreads in the medium - term; for internal - external spreads, it has a certain profit - loss ratio [81] - EU Carbon Emissions: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [83] - Crude Oil: The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [86] - PTA: In the short - term, the futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [88] - Bottle Chip: Consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies, and the absolute price follows the polyester raw materials [92] - Urea: It will fluctuate within the range of 1580 - 1780 yuan/ton, and adjust according to the actual spot feedback [94] - Container Freight Rate: In the short - term, the market will fluctuate, and continuously monitor the spot price changes [96] 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, which may boost market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar index. The US stock index futures market sentiment has recovered, but the consumer confidence index has declined [14][16][19] - China's October export growth rate decreased significantly, but it is expected to have resilience in the future. The bond market is currently in a volatile state, and positive spread strategies can be considered [20][22][23] - Various commodities have different market situations. For example, the iron ore price is weakening, the palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the copper market is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures [28][33][62] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In October, China's gold reserves increased by about 0.93 tons. The US consumer confidence index declined in November, inflation expectations slightly rose, and the short - term gold price continued to fluctuate [10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed needs to weigh various factors in the next interest - rate decision. The potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is being reached, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [13][15][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed should act cautiously as the interest rate approaches the neutral level. The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, but the consumer confidence index is close to a record low. The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October inflation data was slightly better than expected, but the export growth rate decreased significantly. The bond market is worried about the fund fee rate new regulations, and it is currently in a volatile state [20][22][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China has suspended some export control measures. The A - share market has shown a stable volume and rising price, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [24][25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - In November, the thermal coal price has risen, and it is expected to be strong, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A South African iron ore mine will be temporarily closed, but it will not affect global supply. The iron ore price is weakening, and the inventory is expected to increase [28][29][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Brazil's soybean planting progress is slower than last year and the five - year average. The palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the soybean oil market is concerned about US bio - fuel policies [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export reached a new high in October. The new sugar production in Guangxi will start later, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term [36][38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing export decreased in October. The cotton picking progress is fast, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [40][42][44] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Bean Meal) - China has restored the soybean import qualification of three US companies. The domestic soybean import is abundant, and the oil mill's开机 rate is expected to rise [45][46][47] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Some areas in Hebei have lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response. The steel price is in a weak and volatile state, and more market - oriented production cuts are needed [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch sugar industry's开机 rate has increased. The starch enterprise is profitable, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Hebei market is weak and stable. The new jujubes are about to be harvested, and the market game is intense [54][56] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The feed enterprise's corn inventory days have increased, and the deep - processing enterprise's inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term [57][58] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper export increased in October. The copper price is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][62][63] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company has reduced its stake in Tianhe光能. The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in November [64][65][66] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises'开机 rate is weak. The industrial silicon price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on dips [67][68] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company has won a large lithium project contract. The lithium demand is strong, but the supply is also increasing. The short - term price will fluctuate, and consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][72][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to complete the feasibility study of 18 downstream projects in December and has stopped approving some nickel intermediate product plants. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [75][77][78] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount. The recycled lead industry is in the stage of large - scale resumption of production, and the short - term supply and demand will be strong. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [79][80] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is at a premium. The LME zinc may face a short - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc inventory has decreased. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [81] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is affected by weather and power - price policies and will fluctuate in the short - term [82][83] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count remains unchanged. The US will exempt Hungary from sanctions on importing Russian oil. The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [84][85][86] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the futures market is affected by supply - side factors. The short - term futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [87][88] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable. The supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies [91][92] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India has issued a new urea import tender. The urea futures have rebounded due to export policy changes and replenishment demand. It will fluctuate within a certain range [93][94] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The new - shipbuilding market is active. The SCFI index has declined, and the container freight rate will fluctuate in the short - term, and monitor the spot price changes [95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely before the palm oil production in the producing areas decreases and the US biodiesel policy is postponed for release [3] - The report suggests that for single - sided trading, the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: The rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. The import tariff of US soybeans is 13%, still higher than the 3% tariff of South American soybeans [3] - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31, 2025 increased by 12.31% month - on - month. ITS and Amspec data indicate that the expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.19% and 4.31% respectively compared with the same period last month. The large increase in Malaysian palm oil production makes the probability of inventory accumulation in October relatively high. Attention should be paid to the October MPOB report [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: With the import of Australian and Russian rapeseed into China later, the domestic supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to China's import of Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other regions, as well as the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies [3] Strategy View and Outlook - **Single - sided trading**: Suggest that the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [5] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices. Overall, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5] Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, fats and oils fluctuated widely. The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all fluctuated widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][17] Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the September MPOB report, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in September increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. The production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. The export increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. The apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous month. This report is bearish [30] - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [31] - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41] - **Domestic palm oil**: Data on import volume are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [51] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of fats and oils are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [54] Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons (2.76%) from the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons (7.36%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons (2.36%) from the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons (17.29%) compared with 505,400 tons last year [63] - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 38,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [66] Disk Import Profit - As of November 7, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the December shipment was - 215 yuan/ton [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports, and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: In October, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market turned negative, mainly because the supply of palm oil in the producing areas was still large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. An Indonesian official said that the palm oil production in 2025 would increase by 10% year - on - year. Coupled with the high year - on - year production data in August, the market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, suppressing the market trend. After the meeting between the leaders of China and Canada, the two sides agreed to resume exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, but Canada later said it would not immediately reduce tariffs. Indonesia's palm oil production in August was still large. Although its domestic inventory was not high, the monthly export volume was large, and the international supply was relatively sufficient. If high production continued in the fourth quarter, Malaysia and Indonesia would enter a continuous inventory - accumulation phase, but according to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, there would be a rapid de - stocking rhythm in the first quarter of next year. In October, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was still high, and the oil supply was sufficient. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the production of soybean oil decreased. The rapeseed oil inventory was expected to remain at a relatively high level due to imports, and the palm oil inventory remained stable due to low imports. The total domestic oil inventory might show a slight downward trend from a high level [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If high production continues, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the FOB - contract price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of palm oil 01 contracts, the basis of soybean oil 01 contracts, and the basis of rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export**: The report provides data on the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [28][29][30]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and related forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The report presents data on the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil - mill inventory of soybean oil, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [41][44][46]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: The report shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report presents the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [58]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest, soybean oil oscillates between cost support and inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8600, and 8540 respectively, with a decrease of 10 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of palm oil futures (South China) was 5000, 4000, and 3000 in these regions [1]. - **First - grade soybean oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8390, and 8490 respectively, with an increase of 10 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9780, 9830, and 10100 respectively, with an increase of 30 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of rapeseed oil futures (East China) was 3000 [1][2]. Futures Data - **Price difference between soybean and palm oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was - 544, a decrease of 92 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Price difference between rapeseed and soybean oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was 1376, a decrease of 107 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On November 6, 2025, the palm oil warehouse receipts were 650 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 26460 (a decrease of 984), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5112 (a decrease of 1726) compared to November 5 [1]. Industry News - **Palm oil supply**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the production is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. As of October 29, China's palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06% [2]. - **Soybean news**: Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement. StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil import**: The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest; soybean oil fluctuates between cost support and inventory pressure; rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8770, 8610, and 8550 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8310, 8380, and 8480 respectively, all down 40 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9750, 9800, and 10070 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] 3.2 Futures Data - On November 5, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 452, up 56 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1269, down 66 from the previous day [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 650; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 27444, down 200 from the previous day; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 6838, down 702 from the previous day [1] 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production forecast for 2025 is raised to 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%, strengthening the global supply - loosening expectation [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach a two - year high. The inventory at the end of October is expected to be 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the highest since October 2023, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%. The crude palm oil production in the same period is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%, the highest since October 2018 [2] - As of October 29, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06%, rising for three consecutive weeks and at a recent high [2] - Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement [2] - StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield per acre to 53.6 bushels, still higher than the USDA forecast [2] - Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2, lagging behind the same period last year and the five - year average [2] - The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of Russia's new - season rapeseed oil [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The demand for palm oil in India is weak, and the price of the three major oils is oscillating. The decline in India's palm oil imports and the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production put pressure on the overall palm oil market [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan or 0.30% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,138 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.37% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,407 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan or 0.38% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.24%, and the spot basis was P01 + -70 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 172 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.31%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 353 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News India's Palm Oil Imports - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five-year low of 750,000 tons, down from 980,000 tons in September, due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 is estimated to have increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, the highest level in eight years [2] EU's Climate Policy - The EU Council reached an agreement on amending the European Climate Law, maintaining the target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels [2] India's Rapeseed Planting - India's rapeseed planting area is expected to reach a new high this year due to strong Chinese demand and favorable soil moisture, with an expected increase of 7 - 8% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the fluctuation in soybean oil futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with a slight increase observed on November 4, 2023 [1] - On November 3, the opening price of soybean oil was 49.93 cents per pound, reaching a high of 50.10 cents and a low of 49.11 cents, closing at 49.55 cents, reflecting a decrease of 0.52% [2] - As of November 4, the national first-class soybean oil trading volume was 20,000 tons, which is an increase of 110.53% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil for December shipment is reported at $1,116 per ton, down by $26 from the previous trading day, while the February shipment price is $1,126 per ton, down by $25 [2] - The national soybean oil port inventory as of November 4 is 1,199,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the inventory of 1,234,000 tons on October 28 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market trending weakly. It awaits the final US energy policy in November and further news on Indonesia's B50 plan. The strategy is mainly to wait and see, and there may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes. Also, the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil are expected to widen [2][3]. - The oil and fat market shows short - term weak adjustment and medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There are many negative factors in the oil and fat market. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in October with limited export boost, increasing inventory pressure. Indonesia's B50 plan is uncertain, affecting market sentiment, but the transfer of plantation ownership may limit production, and the B40 plan supports the price floor. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks is optimistic for soybean oil, while Sino - Canadian relations are uncertain, making rapeseed oil resistant to decline. Domestically, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient, with short - term pressure, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. - In the short - term, the domestic oil and fat inventory is high, and demand is weak. Downstream consumption is mainly for rigid needs, with limited expansion in the fourth - quarter peak season. In the long - term, the market will focus on the US biofuel obligation in November, the supply - demand balance of palm oil in producing areas, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [5][6][14]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range fluctuations. The price ranges for P2601, Y2601, and OI are [8350 - 9700], [8000 - 8500], and [9300 - 10300] respectively. Unilateral trading can stay on the sidelines, while arbitrage can focus on the widening spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [20]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current base - spread is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. For the month - spread, considering the Southeast Asian Ramadan and Indonesia's B50 plan in the first quarter of next year, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spreads of rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils are expected to widen [21][22]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Traders with high oil and fat inventory can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the price range forecasts and volatility data of the three oils [23][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of November 1 was 47.1% [30]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production at a seven - year high. India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year [31]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [32]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, progress of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, US government information, and USDA data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil and fat market continued to weaken this week due to more negative information. Although the market is bearish, the downward space is limited. The positions of key profit - making seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. The basis structure is weak, and the Back structure has become shallower. The soybean - palm spread strengthened, the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly, and the rapeseed - palm spread changed little [35][36][66]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weak first and then strong. The palm oil - producing areas had many negative factors, but Sino - US trade talks were optimistic for soybean oil, and Sino - Canadian relations made rapeseed oil relatively strong [69]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads decreased this week. The cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly, and the cost of US soybean oil for biodiesel production remained low [72]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price has decreased slightly, and the profit improved briefly but then weakened again [74]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in September did not decline as expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. However, there is a strong expectation of La Nina in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [76]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: The procurement intention of traders is low, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. Soybean oil: The supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the pressure may weaken from December. Rapeseed oil: The inventory is high, but it will gradually decrease. If Sino - Canadian relations do not improve, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats is expected to remain stable and weak [81].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed oil fluctuates due to the ongoing China - Canada trade friction, and the future trend depends on the changes in China - Canada tariff policies [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8664.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 100 yuan and a decline of - 1.14% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8110.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 18.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.22% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 48.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.51% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.81%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 114.00, with a change of + 30.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 150.00, with a change of - 12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9840.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 370.00, with a change of + 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary India's Edible Oil Imports - India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 16 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest level in five years [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased by 61.6% year - on - year to a record 5.56 million tons [2] Brazil's Crop Planting - As of October 30, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected sown area, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall [2] - In the Brazilian Central - South region, the planting rate of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 60%, basically the same as 59% in the same period last year [2] US Government Shutdown - Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips pointed out that the current US government shutdown may have an unprecedented economic impact, with a longer duration and a wider scope of affected government departments [2] - If the US government shutdown lasts for six weeks, it may reduce the US economic growth in the fourth quarter by 1.15 percentage points, and a rebound is expected by early 2026 [2]