Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output indices were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure[3] - Non-manufacturing PMI showed resilience, particularly in the construction sector, which saw significant growth driven by residential and construction engineering[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Insights - Production and demand both rebounded, with demand rising above the boom-bust line, and the increase in demand outpacing production[4] - New orders increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2, new export orders rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, and existing orders improved by 0.4 percentage points to 45.2[4] - Raw material inventory continued to rise, with the inventory of finished products significantly increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1[5] Group 3: Price and Profitability Trends - Price indices rebounded for the first time since February, with the purchasing price index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4, while the factory price index also increased by 1.5 percentage points to 46.2[5] - Despite the price increases, profit pressures for enterprises have not improved, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability[5] Group 4: Sector Performance - In the manufacturing sector, 6 out of 15 industries (40%) were in a prosperous range, an increase from 4 in May, with notable performance in petroleum processing, chemical fiber, and electrical equipment[6] - In the non-manufacturing sector, 10 out of 19 industries (53%) were in a prosperous range, a decrease from 13 in the previous month, with strong performance in postal services and civil engineering[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Province aims to create around 15 provincial-level service-oriented manufacturing clusters by 2027, promoting the deep integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Anhui government plans to use service-oriented manufacturing clusters as a platform to pilot the integration of manufacturing and services in key areas, establishing a regional development hub [3]. - The province will draw on advanced experiences from regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong to formulate guidelines for the construction of service-oriented manufacturing clusters, detailing key tasks, creation conditions, application procedures, and evaluation management [3][4]. - Following the issuance of the guidelines, the Anhui Industrial and Information Technology Department will initiate a selection process for the clusters, focusing on manufacturing foundation, service capabilities, market entity cultivation, ecological construction, and support guarantees [4]. Group 2: Financial Support and Evaluation - Anhui will provide financial incentives to support the construction of service-oriented manufacturing clusters, focusing on cultivating benchmark enterprises and creating integrated manufacturing service application scenarios [4]. - The province will conduct comprehensive evaluations of the cluster construction status at appropriate times to ensure effective implementation [4].

Group 1 - The 2025 Forbes China Science and Technology Innovation Person Selection has officially commenced, aiming to discover benchmark figures in China's science and technology innovation field and showcase their outstanding contributions [1][14] - The selection process is designed to identify business leaders, scientific pioneers, and cross-border innovators who reshape industry patterns with a global and disruptive vision [5][21] - The 2024 selection saw participating companies in the "Influence" category achieve a total market value exceeding 10 trillion yuan, with over 10,000 patents accumulated [5][6] Group 2 - In the past year, China's technology innovation has shown vigorous development, with leading enterprises making significant breakthroughs across various fields, including artificial intelligence, intelligent manufacturing, aerospace, and life sciences [6][9] - The official data indicates that China's R&D investment has increased from 1 trillion yuan in 2012 to 3.34 trillion yuan in 2023, with the R&D intensity (as a percentage of GDP) rising to 2.65% [11] - The selection will provide a platform for participants to achieve multi-point technology integration and business scenario traction within a global science and technology innovation ecosystem [12] Group 3 - The selection committee consists of a strong international panel of experts from various sectors, ensuring that the evaluation adheres to three core standards: originality of technological breakthroughs, leadership in industrial transformation, and global impact of innovation results [21] - The event aims to highlight the core forces driving China's science and technology innovation, including leading entrepreneurs, top scientists breaking technological boundaries, and cross-border elites promoting international collaboration [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a robust internal driving force for China's economic stability and growth, particularly in the face of complex external environments [3][4][11] - Consumption is identified as a key engine driving China's economic progress, with a notable increase in retail sales, showing a year-on-year growth of 5% in the first five months and 6.4% in May, marking the highest level in 2024 [1][4] - Experts highlight the importance of structural reforms and high-level opening-up to enhance internal driving forces, suggesting that reforms should focus on state-owned enterprises, market access, and fair competition for private enterprises [3][4][12] Group 2 - The economic outlook for the second half of the year presents significant challenges, including potential declines in exports due to tariff impacts, reduced effectiveness of stimulus policies, and pressures on employment stability [4][6][8] - There is a call for policies to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in consumption, as effective demand remains a pressing issue, with concerns about the sustainability of consumption growth driven by policy effects [8][10] - The need for a restructured mechanism for sharing economic growth benefits is emphasized, aiming to ensure that the gains from new economic drivers are effectively distributed to the public [11][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% in the first half of 2024, demonstrating resilience despite external uncertainties and internal challenges [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][4]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May 2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth since 2024 [1][3]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for the first five months of 2024 was 5% [3]. External Trade - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in the first five months was 1.3%, with exports growing by 6% [2]. - Factors contributing to export growth include increased non-U.S. exports, "export grabbing" effects, and "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports [2][4]. Consumer Policies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with furniture, communication, and home appliance retail sales growing over 20% [3]. - In 2024, the central and local governments allocated approximately 170 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy, expected to raise retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point [3]. Investment and Consumption Outlook - There is a need to stimulate both consumption and investment in high-tech sectors and productive services [5]. - The focus should be on stabilizing domestic consumption and investment, with an emphasis on the real estate market and capital market stability [5]. Structural Reforms - The current economic strategy emphasizes the need to shift from investment and export-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth [6][7]. - Reforms in fiscal and tax systems are necessary to enhance local governments' incentives to boost consumption [7]. Monetary Policy - There is still room to lower the reserve requirement ratio, and stabilizing asset prices should be included in monetary policy considerations [7].

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is entering a phase focused on developing new quality productivity over the next 5-10 years, emphasizing both new strategic emerging industries and the transformation of existing manufacturing through green, low-carbon, and digital intelligence [1][6] Group 1: Importance of Productive Services Industry - The productive services industry is crucial for enhancing manufacturing technology and efficiency, serving as a key component throughout the entire industrial chain [1][2] - It consists of ten major categories, including technology development, logistics, financial services, market services, green services, digital services, trade, branding, consulting, and talent training [2][3] - The productive services industry is a growth driver for GDP, with its share in the U.S. rising from 10% in 1950 to 50% in 2024, while China's share has increased from just over 10% in 1980 to 27%-31% recently [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Potential - The productive services sector is a breeding ground for high-quality manufacturing and unicorn companies, with significant contributions to the capital market [3][4] - It enhances industrial profit margins and adds high-end value to manufactured goods [5] - A developed productive services industry can significantly increase total factor productivity by focusing on knowledge, talent, and innovation rather than traditional resource inputs [6][8] Group 3: Current Challenges in China - China's productive services industry accounts for only 27%-30% of GDP, lower than the 40%-50% seen in developed countries [8] - The service trade's share in China is only 12%, compared to 30%-40% in Europe and the U.S. [8][9] - Profit margins in China's industrial manufacturing are around 7%, below the global average of 10%, indicating a need for improvement [9] Group 4: Development Strategies - Key strategies for developing the productive services industry include fostering small and medium-sized enterprises, nurturing leading companies, and establishing industry internet platforms [10] - By 2040, it is projected that the productive services sector could account for 35% of GDP, with manufacturing remaining at around 27%, optimizing the industrial structure [10]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Experts believe that the foreign trade environment remains uncertain in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand as the core policy direction to cultivate more growth momentum and endogenous power [1][5] - The cumulative GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is likely to reach around 5.2%, supported by consumption [1][5] Group 2: Consumption Policies - Suggestions include optimizing holiday arrangements, such as increasing holidays in the second half of the year and implementing paid leave systems to boost service consumption recovery [2][6] - The government has allocated a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with an additional 138 billion yuan expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters [6] Group 3: Income and Consumption Dynamics - Improving residents' disposable income is crucial for transforming consumption into a new economic engine, with a focus on increasing the proportions of fiscal spending on public services, residents' consumption in total demand, and disposable income in the national economy [9][10] - Wage income constitutes a significant portion of residents' disposable income, and enhancing wage growth is essential for sustained income improvement [9][10] Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - The service retail sector showed a growth rate of 5.0% in the first quarter, indicating the potential for service consumption to be a key driver for boosting overall consumption [11] - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed 48 measures to enhance service consumption, covering various sectors such as dining, tourism, and new business models [11] Group 5: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is identified as a key area for development, with a focus on nurturing leading enterprises similar to Huawei and Apple [12][13] - The productive service sector is projected to grow from 27% in previous years to 31% in 2024, highlighting its importance in the modern economy [12][13]

Group 1 - The forum focused on the theme of "Steady Navigation of China's Macroeconomy," with various experts sharing their insights [1] - Huang Qifan emphasized the importance of productive services in enhancing manufacturing efficiency and technological progress, highlighting its role across the entire industrial chain [2] - The CMF report suggested increasing economic growth momentum and improving the channels for economic benefits to reach the public, with specific directions including structural transformation from manufacturing to services and urbanization potential [2]

作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨季媛媛 图 源| 2 1世纪经济报道 6月21日，中国人民大学中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）2025年中期论坛在京举行，本期论坛聚 焦"稳舵远航的中国宏观经济"。 重庆市原市长黄奇帆在论坛上发言表示，未来五年的"十五五"期间，中国经济进入到全力推 动新质生产力发展的阶段。抓好新质生产力，从增量上，要抓好中央提出的15个战略新兴和 未来产业；从存量上，就是现在100多亿工业制造业产值，要着力抓好绿色、低碳化和数字智 能化的发展，用绿色低碳和数字智能赋能融合到存量的生产力体系。在服务业方面，要着力 抓好生产性服务业。生产性服务业有十个大类，分别是技术开发和创新、物流配套服务、金 融服务、检验检测认证服务、绿色低碳服务、数字化服务、销售和售后服务、品牌广告和知 识产权服务、会计和法律等专业咨询服务、人才培养和管理服务等。 黄奇帆表示，生产性服务业不仅是制造业高科技发展的温床、土壤，也是新质生产力发展的 温床、土壤。生产性服务业还自带光环，直接就是GDP的增长极、独角兽的主要板块，是服 务贸易发展的基础，是高端装备附加值最主要的来源，是全要素生产率的组成部分。 "中国的生产性服务业，前两年的数据是 ...