Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon in the strategy [5][7] - Inter-temporal: None [5][7][8] - Inter-commodity: None [5][7][8] - Spot-futures: None [5][7][8] - Options: None [5][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but there are issues of overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly in September. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,480 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 1.13% (95 yuan/ton) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,480 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,029 lots, down 371 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1] - The consumption of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable. The price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Silicone enterprises face increased cost pressure, and the peak-season restocking of end consumers is average [1] Polysilicon - On September 2, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 oscillated strongly, opening at 52,360 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, up 3.97% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 145,855 lots (150,409 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 530,778 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N-type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon producers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a month-on-month decrease of 14.29%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a month-on-month increase of 3.68%). The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.53%), and the silicon wafer production was 13.31GW (a month-on-month increase of 8.30%) [4] - In September, most domestic silicon wafer enterprises increased their production scheduling plans, and the overall output showed an upward trend compared to August [4] - In September, the global battery production scheduling was about 60GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 59GW in August), and the domestic production scheduling was about 59GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 58GW in August) [6] - The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price fluctuates slightly. The short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but due to overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon - In September, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management, continuously follow up on policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7]

Group 1 - The conference on standardization in the silicon industry will be held from September 10 to 12, 2025, in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, coinciding with the 2025 China Silicon Industry Conference [2] - Discussions will focus on the revision of mandatory national standards related to energy consumption limits for various silicon products and the planning of a green, intelligent, and high-end standard system for the silicon industry [2] - Participants are required to register online before September 9, 2025, through the Nonferrous Metals Conference website [4] Group 2 - The conference will take place at the Qingshan Hotel in Baotou, with accommodation arrangements being self-funded [3] - Contact information for key personnel involved in the silicon industry association is provided for further inquiries [8]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern has improved, the spot price has minor fluctuations, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - For polysilicon, the production has increased and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, but the total inventory is still accumulating. The downstream wafer production has improved. The recent spot price has moved up, and the futures price is basically flat with the spot price after a decline. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long term [8] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely. The main contract 2511 opened at 8530 yuan/ton and closed at 8570 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,754 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,656 lots, a change of - 53 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9400 - 9600 (- 50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 541,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 (0) yuan/ton. The prices of main silicone products were close to the enterprise cost line, and the market was in a stalemate with low - price transactions. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 49,220 yuan/ton and closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.10% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 143,912 lots (154,537 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 376,304 lots [5] - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a change of - 14.29% month - on - month), the wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a change of 3.68% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon production was 31,000.00 tons (a change of 6.53% month - on - month), and the wafer production was 15.63GW (a change of 27.18% month - on - month) [5] Group 5: Price Information of Other Products - **Silicon wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.58 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.38 (0.00) yuan/piece [7] - **Battery cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [7] - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Group 6: Strategies - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the current fundamental changes are small. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - **Polysilicon**: In the short - term, conduct range trading. In the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to buy on dips. Pay attention to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]

证券研究报告 合盛硅业 (603260 CH) Q2 盈利承压下行，工业硅景气待复苏 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地 化学原料 合盛硅业于 8 月 27 日发布 25H1 半年度报告：上半年实现营收 97.8 亿元， 同比-26%，归母净利润-4.0 亿元，同比-141%，扣非净利润-5.3 亿元，同 比-159%；其中 Q2 实现归母净利润-6.7 亿元，同比-246%/环比-353%，扣 Q2 工业硅量价承压较大，硅橡胶销量环比减少 工业硅方面，受下游需求端的多晶硅/有机硅开工下降以及行业高库存影响， Q2 销量同比-47%/环比-17%至 21.5 万吨，营收同比-66%/环比-35%至 15.7 亿元，H1 工业硅毛利率同比-15pct 至 14.6%。有机硅方面，二季度行业整 体实施减产稳价，Q2 硅橡胶销量同比-15%/环比-6%至 16.3 万吨，硅橡胶 营收同比-23%/环比-11%至 18.3 亿元，原料工业硅、氯甲烷价格下跌支撑 毛利率维稳，H1 有机硅毛利率同比+1pct 至 17.4%。公司 25H1 计提存货 减值损失 1.68 亿元。子公司西部合盛/中部合盛/东部合盛/新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - **Polysilicon Market Overview**: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 三、图表分析 点评 27 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8525 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.56%， 持仓减仓 6281 手至 27.6 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9442 元/吨，较 上一交易日下调 36 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8750 元/吨， 现货升水扩至 245 元/吨。多晶硅震荡走弱，主力 2511 收于 48690 元/ 吨，日内跌幅 4.89%，持仓增仓 17059 手至 15.5 万手；多晶硅 N 型复 投硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 95 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤价格提升，硅厂向贸易商出 货量高而下游购货量偏少，上下空间收窄、延续调整节奏。反内卷完 成对多晶硅价格的基本把控，西南放产下社库和仓单持续增压，产业 出清并未实际推进，多晶硅量价分离格局持续扩大。多晶硅现货跟随 下游市场情绪降温、开始向下调价。短期反内卷相关动态对短期盘面 存在仍存驱动，或引导预期修正下回调幅度。建议谨慎高位布空，工 信部 9 月底前启动节能专项监察 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Short - term interval operation for polysilicon [9][11] Report's Core View - On August 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures market declined, mainly affected by the decline of commodities like coking coal. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price rose and then stabilized, and the short - term futures market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, affected by the anti - involution policy. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [1][3][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8680 yuan/ton and closed at 8515 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton (- 2.85%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,839 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,822 lots, a change of - 116 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1] - **Consumption Side**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream were in a deep game stage, and some enterprises showed a mentality of bottom - fishing [2] Strategy - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate with the overall commodity sentiment. Unilateral: Neutral; No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures opened at 51,480 yuan/ton and closed at 50,985 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.06% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,478 lots, and the trading volume was 265,820 lots [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly polysilicon output decreased by 0.68% to 29,100 tons, and the silicon wafer output increased by 1.57% to 12.29GW [5] Strategy - The short - term polysilicon futures market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Short - term interval operation for unilateral trading; No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [9][11] Others - On August 25, China Resources Power's 2nd batch of photovoltaic project component procurement in 2025 had a total procurement of 3GW of N - type TOPcon double - sided double - glass photovoltaic components. The bid prices of the first - ranked candidates were between 0.7215 - 0.731 yuan/W [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 8万吨 . | ， | 环比有所增加1 | 15% . 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | 9万吨 . | 环比减少1 ， | 25% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为24 9万吨 ， . | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 ， ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On August 25th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06%, and the open interest increased by 9,744 lots to 289,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,478 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 55 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,580 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.73%, and the open interest decreased by 5,596 lots to 139,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 7,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rising price of silicon coal. Silicon plants sold a large amount of products to traders, while downstream purchases were relatively small. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti-involution efforts, the price of polysilicon was basically under control. With the production resumption in the southwest region, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the industrial clearance had not been effectively promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand [2]. - The market is currently highly focused on the photovoltaic industry meeting jointly held by six ministries and commissions. The policy may gradually shift from direct production control to linking with production capacity and technical indicators. The dynamics of the anti-involution meeting have an absolute driving force on the short-term market and may guide the correction of expectations and the callback of the premium. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting at high levels. The implementation details of the energy-saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions driven by policies [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend on August 25th. The cost of industrial silicon increased, and the price adjustment continued. The polysilicon market faced inventory pressure, and the separation between volume and price continued to expand. The market is highly concerned about the photovoltaic industry meeting, and policy dynamics may affect the market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties also showed an upward trend, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 50 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing by 75 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons. The total social inventory increased by 2,400 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties rose, with the price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock increasing by 3,500 yuan/ton to 49,000 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained unchanged, and the spot discount widened by 155 yuan/ton to 7,060 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presents charts on industrial silicon prices, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][21]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [24][26][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On the 21st, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,635 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.66%, and the position increasing by 3,710 lots to 284,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,407 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.28%, and the position decreasing by 476 lots to 149,600 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The increase in polysilicon production is expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon has slowed down. There is obvious upward pressure, and it will still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range. Polysilicon shows a strong separation between quantity and price, with a contradiction between cost pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration cannot relieve the pressure on factory inventories. There are rumors that the production quota for the photovoltaic industry may be expanded at a photovoltaic conference, and there are numerous and divergent market price adjustment and production restriction news. Downstream players are highly cautious and there is little trading activity, which limits the continuous upward movement of polysilicon prices. In the short term, it is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range and continuously monitor the dynamics of industrial production restriction news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,330 yuan/ton on the 20th to 8,595 yuan/ton on the 21st, a rise of 265 yuan/ton. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 9,407 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt increased by 553 to 51,166, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1,295 tons to 252,995 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,875 yuan/ton on the 20th to 51,530 yuan/ton on the 21st, a drop of 345 yuan/ton. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 90 to 6,460, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 168,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained at 12,300 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presents charts on various aspects such as industrial silicon prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts present the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 4. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst in gold, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and is frequently interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team Title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports [34]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [35].