Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (02579.HK) has experienced a significant upward trend in stock price due to improved industry conditions and fundamental events, with the stock price reaching the issue price level and potential for further upward movement [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 6, Zhongwei New Materials opened with a rapid increase, with a peak rise of over 8%, reaching 34.56 HKD per share [1] - Since mid-December, the stock has shown a notable upward trend, supported by industry recovery and fundamental events [1] - The corresponding A-share, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. (300919.SZ), also saw a quick rise and stabilized, with an increase of over 7% [1] Group 2: Nickel Price Impact - The LME nickel price has surpassed 17,500 USD per ton, increasing by over 3,000 USD per ton since mid-December, driven by tightening Indonesian policies and bullish market expectations [1] - The rise in nickel prices is expected to significantly enhance profit margins for companies involved in upstream resource sectors [1] Group 3: Company Strategy - Zhongwei New Materials has been actively working on building an integrated industrial ecosystem, securing 5-6 million wet tons of nickel ore resources through investments, partnerships, long-term cooperation agreements, and exclusive sales [1] - The company has established four nickel raw material industrial bases in Indonesia, facilitating a vertically integrated industrial chain from resources to materials [1] - The increase in LME nickel prices is anticipated to have a positive impact on the company's operating profits [1]

2026年首周，镍市全面爆发"开门红"行情，核心现货市场表现亮眼！1月6日据长江有色金属网获悉，长 江现货市场1#镍报价区间139750-149750元/吨，均价144750元/吨，单日暴涨4950元，创近期单日最大涨 幅；沪镍主力合约盘中突破13.8万/吨阶段性高点，伦镍同步冲高至17535美元/吨。镍市成为开年首个大 宗商品焦点。政策扰动、地缘紧张与资金情绪的三重共振，让镍金属在终端消费尚未完全回暖的背景 下，走出超预期上涨行情。 总体来看，2026年开局镍市的强势表现，是政策、地缘、资金三重因素共振的结果，但短期情绪驱动行 情难以持续，后续仍需回归供需基本面。从中长期看，全球新能源汽车产业对镍的需求增长趋势明确， 印尼湿法冶炼一体化项目产能爬坡将逐步改变行业供需结构。当前的市场波动，既是短期预期的集中释 放，也是布局优质龙头企业的重要观察期。建议重点跟踪长江现货、伦镍等核心价格指标及印尼政策落 地节奏，理性把握市场机会与风险边界。 （注：本文为原创分析，核心观点基于公开信息及市场推导，以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ） 长江有色金属网 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 此轮镍价上涨的核心驱动力， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - The nickel market is experiencing a price rebound, but it's mainly due to the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations rather than a substantial improvement in the supply - demand structure. The stainless - steel market is caught in a game between strong cost expectations and weak real - world demand. Nickel is expected to remain strong, while stainless steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 135,000 RMB/ton, closed at 134,100 RMB/ton, a 0.57% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 366,893 (-774,634) lots, and the open interest was 134,729 (1934) lots. The high - level oscillation of the contract reflects intensified market game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - season demand. The current price rebound is a result of the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations [1] - The nickel ore market has a calm trading atmosphere, with limited resources and stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are waiting for the new round of northern mine tenders and have a bullish outlook. Rainfall has affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the January (Phase I) 2026 domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.05 - 0.08 USD/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [2] - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 142,200 RMB/ton, up 1,100 RMB/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was okay. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or declined. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,424 (758) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,354 (72) tons [2] Strategy - The fundamentals show high inventories and oversupply, but with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and nickel having oscillated at the bottom for a long time, it's likely to attract the attention of profitable funds from precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for single - sided trading, while there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,150 RMB/ton and closed at 13,075 RMB/ton. The trading volume was 85,130 (-60,400) lots, and the open interest was 72,144 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, oscillating downward, centered around the game between "strong cost expectations and weak real demand". Although it continued the pre - holiday optimistic trend at the opening, it was dragged down by the black - metal sector during the session [3] - The market activity increased, and spot quotes rose. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton, and in Foshan market, it was also 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 395 RMB/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 RMB/nickel point to 927.5 RMB/nickel point [3] Strategy - With some macro - level positive factors realized and the inventory declining for four consecutive weeks, but the downstream demand being weak in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to remain volatile, closely following the Shanghai nickel price trend. The short - term operation strategy is to wait and see. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high in the current volatile situation. The single - sided strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has shifted focus from oil to a broader range of strategic mineral resources, with the U.S. showing interest in the country's vast oil reserves and other minerals [1][10] - Venezuela is characterized as a "resource-rich, development-poor" country, with significant untapped mineral resources due to infrastructure decay and lack of investment [6][9] Resource Wealth - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally, with 303 billion barrels, and significant natural gas reserves estimated at 5.54-5.67 trillion cubic meters, ranking eighth worldwide [3] - The country also has substantial mineral resources, including 1.33 billion tons of bauxite (third globally), 792 tons of gold (fourth globally), 14.68 billion tons of iron ore, and notable reserves of titanium, nickel, coal, and diamonds [3][4] Strategic Importance of Minerals - Aluminum is crucial for the aerospace industry, with Venezuela's bauxite reserves providing a potential backup for the U.S. military supply chain [3][4] - Titanium is essential for advanced military aircraft, with the U.S. being the largest consumer but facing supply shortages [4] - Nickel is vital for the electric vehicle industry, influencing battery performance and energy density, making it a key resource in the green energy transition [4][5] Development Challenges - Despite its resource wealth, Venezuela struggles with underdevelopment, with low operational rates in its aluminum industry and significant waste in natural gas production [6][9] - Historical U.S. sanctions have hindered foreign investment and technology transfer, although recent geopolitical shifts may allow for selective engagement in resource development [6][9] Global Supply Chain Implications - Activation of Venezuela's mineral resources could disrupt global supply chains, particularly in aluminum and gold markets, affecting major suppliers like Guinea and Australia [7] - Increased nickel production could reshape the electric vehicle battery materials market, while stable aluminum supplies could lower electric vehicle costs [7] U.S. Strategic Interests - The U.S. aims to secure its supply chain for military and high-tech industries by controlling key mineral resources in Latin America, reflecting a modern interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine [9] - However, the path to realizing Venezuela's resource potential is fraught with challenges, including historical risks for U.S. companies and the need for substantial investment to restore production capabilities [9][10] Economic Value - The Orinoco mineral belt in Venezuela is estimated to have a commercial value of $2 trillion, highlighting its significance in the evolving global resource order [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is entering 2026 with mixed signals, as prices remain firm due to anticipated supply tightening from Indonesia, but broader industry forecasts indicate structural oversupply that may limit sustained price increases [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nickel futures prices reached $16,765 per ton as of the week ending January 2, marking a nearly 7% weekly increase, driven more by policy sentiment than changes in demand fundamentals [1] - A key question remains whether global nickel supply and demand can achieve balance as the market moves forward into 2026 [1] Group 2: Indonesian Policy Uncertainty - Indonesia is considering reducing its 2026 nickel ore production quota to approximately 250 million wet tons, significantly lower than the 379 million wet tons target for 2025, which has boosted recent price sentiment [2] - However, market participants note that the finalization of these quotas may take time, and the implementation risks remain high, viewing the proposed cuts as more of a sentiment support rather than a substantial tightening of supply [2] Group 3: Supply Overhang from NPI Expansion - Despite policy discussions, Indonesia's nickel supply surplus is primarily supported by rapid capacity expansion in nickel pig iron (NPI) and intermediate products [3] - Industrial centers like Morowali and Weda Bay continue to expand and optimize existing smelting capacities, ensuring ample nickel supply and exacerbating the structural oversupply situation [3] Group 4: Price Outlook and Forecasts - Major financial institutions maintain a cautious outlook on nickel prices amid oversupply conditions [4] - The World Bank forecasts nickel prices to be around $15,500 per ton in 2026, with a slight increase to $16,000 per ton in 2027 [5] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that profits of Indonesian producers are a key volatility factor, predicting prices will drop to $14,500 per ton by the end of 2026 [6] - Nornickel predicts a surplus of approximately 275,000 tons in 2026, reinforcing expectations of continued price pressure, while ING forecasts average prices to remain around $15,250 per ton due to high inventories and sluggish demand [7] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Although discussions around Indonesian policies inject volatility and short-term support for nickel prices, the overall outlook for 2026 remains influenced by structural oversupply [8] - Unless there is a significant slowdown in supply growth or an acceleration in demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors, nickel prices are likely to remain range-bound with limited upside potential [8]

1月5日（周一），据当地媒体Bisnis.com周一报道，印尼矿业部表示，在政府审核矿企年度产量配额计 划期间，矿企可在第一季度完成其拟议的2026年产量的25%。该报道援引了一封部长的信件内容。 在矿产丰富的印尼，所有矿企都必须向政府提交一份年度生产计划，被称为RKAB，以获得政府的批 准，确定他们每年可以生产多少。 从2026年期，印尼将RKABs审批期限从"三年一审"改回"一年一审"，政府已下令矿企重新申请之前发放 的2026年和2027年配额。 根据10月份公布的部委规定，在新配额的审批过程中，矿企可以参考之前批准的2026年配额，直到2026 年3月底，以决定生产多少。 配额期限的缩短给行业造成了不确定性，镍矿商淡水河谷印尼公司（Vale Indonesia）在上周五表示，暂 停采矿活动，因为他们的RKAB尚未获得批准。 矿业部副部长Yuliot Tanjung周五表示，相关审批"目前正在整合当中"，镍产量配额将进行调整，以满足 国内冶炼厂的需求。 矿业部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，政府计划今年大幅减少矿业产量配额以支撑价格，包括一直低迷的煤炭 价格。 ...

产业链呈现"上紧下弱"格局，矿端成本支撑强劲。龙头企业动态强化行业景气预期： 华友钴业：成本优势显著，2026年业绩预期亮眼，并与特斯拉、宁德时代等头部客户锁定数百亿长单， 反映下游需求韧性。 淡水河谷印尼：停产事件直接加剧市场对即时供应的担忧，是今日情绪催化关键。 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍横盘后小涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报135000元/吨，盘中最高 报136120元/吨，最低价报133000元/吨，收盘报134100元/吨，上涨760元/吨，涨幅为0.57%，沪镍主力 月2602主力合约成交量366893手。 据长江有色属网统计：1月5日ccmn长江综合1#镍价134800元/吨-144100元/吨，均价报139450元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨1450元，长江现货1#镍报134600元/吨-145000元/吨，均价报139800元/吨，较前一日价 格上涨1800元，广东现货镍报142600元/吨-143000元/吨，均价报142800元/吨，较前一日价格上涨100。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，2026年开年首个交易日，镍价高开高走，沪镍主力合约高位震荡。核心驱动 源自供应端强烈收缩预期： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].

美对委军事行动细节公布！ 据央视新闻消息，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思等官员在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉 动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。 载有马杜罗的飞机抵达美国纽约一处军事基地 记者会上，特朗普表示，美军在行动中使用了空中、陆地和海上力量。特朗普称，"这是美国军事实力和能力最令人震惊、 最有效、最有力的展示之一"。 特朗普称，委内瑞拉"所有军事力量都已丧失战斗力"，马杜罗及其妻子都将面临美国司法审判。特朗普表示，执法部门在 马杜罗夫妇高度戒备时将二人抓捕。 当地时间1月3日，央视记者获悉，载有被美方抓捕的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子弗洛雷斯的飞机已抵达纽约斯图尔特空 军国民警卫队基地。 美国司法部3日公布了针对马杜罗夫妇及其儿子的起诉书。央视记者获悉，预计马杜罗将于下周在纽约曼哈顿联邦法院面临 毒品和武器走私指控。 美国大型石油公司将进入委内瑞拉 特朗普还说，将让美国大型石油公司进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元，修复严重破损的基础设施，尤其是石油基础设施， 并开始创造收益。 △记者会前，特朗普在社交媒体发布马杜罗在美军舰上的照片 特朗普还称，"美国在西半球的主导 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20260101】回望2025：镍最值得关注的五个时刻 一、行情回顾 1 镍矿RKAB审批进展公布，供应预期率先定调 1月23日，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）透露，2025年镍矿开采配额总量已达2.98亿湿吨，高于去年的2.72 亿湿吨。这成为引发市场供应预期修正的第一个关键时点，部分奠定了镍产业全年"供过于求"的主基 调。 2 印尼政策集中释放期，本土资源管理加强 2025年3月以来，印尼政府连续推出一系列镍资源管控新规，标志着其资源治理策略进入全面收紧阶 段。这些政策指向多重目标：强化本土矿产资源主导权、掌握产业链关键环节定价能力、扩大财政税收 来源，并系统性提升印尼在全球镍产业链中的话语权与影响力。具体包括： 印尼总统Prabowo Subianto公布2025年第8号政府法规(PP)，涉及自然资源出口收入，要求自然资 源出口商将所有海外收入留存在国内至少一年，以优化资源收益在国内的流通。该政策于3月1日 生效，预计2025年将使印尼的外汇储备增加800亿美元。 印尼能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）发布新规，调整金属矿产基准价格（HMA）的计算方式。基 ...