1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has an oversupply situation with high inventories, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply from the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [2]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, accumulating inventories, and weakening cost support, and the stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 120,800 yuan/ton and closed at 119,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.99% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 122,871 (+25,519) lots, and the open interest was 118,460 (9,789) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation trend due to macro - factors such as the rising US dollar index, the Fed's hawkish remarks, and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm, with stable prices. There was a supply - demand gap, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons may cause shipment delays. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,500 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot transaction was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 30,952 (-254) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the situation of price rebound needs attention due to the sharp reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,625 yuan/ton and closed at 12,545 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,422 (+3,760) lots, and the open interest was 76,075 (-4,171) lots. It showed a weak oscillation trend, similar to the Shanghai nickel trend, affected by macro - factors and the weakening nickel - iron price [2][3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment increased, and the actual transaction was still weak. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets remained unchanged, and the high - nickel pig iron ex - factory tax - included average price decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The fundamentals of nickel are weak with inventory reduction pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 3, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 122060.00 yuan/ton, 120590.00 yuan/ton, 121180.00 yuan/ton, and 121360.00 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 97352.00 hands (-1139), and the open interest was 108671.00 hands (-3846) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 123050.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124300.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Market**: The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15175.00 dollars/ton (-65), the closing price of the electronic disk was 15250.00 dollars/ton, and the closing price of the physical trading was 15226.00 dollars/ton. The trading volume was 5178.00 hands. The total LME nickel inventory was 251238.00 tons (648) [2]. Stainless Steel Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On November 3, 2025, for Shanghai stainless steel futures, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 12610.00 yuan/ton, 12630.00 yuan/ton, 12685.00 yuan/ton, and 12705.00 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 107662.00 hands (-12218), and the open interest was 77047.00 hands (-4967) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13450.00 yuan/ton (-50), and the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25150.00 yuan/ton (-150) [2]. - **Inventory**: The total stainless steel spot inventory was 904700.00 tons, including 2200.00 tons of 200 - series, 613600.00 tons of 300 - series (+900), and 116800.00 tons of 400 - series (-2000) [2]. Industry News - Ambatovy project in Madagascar, operated by Sumitomo Corp, is running smoothly despite recent political unrest. The project aims to produce about 35,000 tons of nickel this fiscal year, with about 15,000 tons produced in the first half - year, similar to the same period last year. Equipment maintenance is planned for November [2]. - In September 2025, the nickel ore export volume of the Philippines was 7.7698 million tons, including 5.57155 million tons to China and 2.19825 million tons to Indonesia [2]. Market Logic - **Nickel**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, and nickel - iron stocks accumulated. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless steel production, and alloy and electroplating demand increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory reduction pressure, but the price is at a low level [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 3, the main contract of stainless steel fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The supply increased in October, and the 300 - series production decreased. The terminal demand was weak, and the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron fell. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weak [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions [2].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The lithium business at Greenbushes experienced a production decrease of 6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 21% year-on-year (YoY), with Q3 2025 production at 320,000 tons and sales at 301,000 tons, reflecting a 27% QoQ and 23% YoY decline in sales [1][2] - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $730 per ton, showing a 1% increase QoQ [1] - The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant saw a production increase of 31% QoQ and 85% YoY, with Q3 2025 production at 2,775 tons and sales at 2,921 tons, marking a 68% QoQ increase [2][3] - The unit cash production cost for lithium concentrate rose by 6% QoQ to A$388 per ton, reflecting a 40% increase YoY [2][3] - The Nova nickel project reported a production decrease of 33% QoQ and 7% YoY, with Q3 2025 nickel production at 3,429 tons and sales at 3,320 tons [6] - The average realized price for nickel was A$22,830 per ton, down 2% QoQ, while the unit cash cost increased by 72% to A$6.84 per pound [6] Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Greenbushes lithium mine produced 320,000 tons in Q3 2025, down 6% QoQ and 21% YoY, with sales of 301,000 tons, down 27% QoQ and 23% YoY [1][2] - Average realized price for lithium concentrate was $730 per ton, up 1% QoQ [1] - Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,775 tons, up 31% QoQ and 85% YoY, with sales of 2,921 tons, up 68% QoQ [2][3] - Unit cash production cost for lithium concentrate increased to A$388 per ton, up 6% QoQ and 40% YoY [2][3] Nickel Business - Nova project produced 3,429 tons of nickel, down 33% QoQ and 7% YoY, with sales of 3,320 tons, down 5% QoQ and 1% YoY [6] - Average realized price for nickel was A$22,830 per ton, down 2% QoQ, while unit cash cost rose to A$6.84 per pound, up 72% [6] Financial Performance - Company revenue for Q3 2025 was A$105.3 million, down 17% QoQ and 26% YoY, primarily due to reduced copper shipments and lower nickel prices [7] - The underlying EBITDA for Nova project was A$24.9 million, down 50% QoQ [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week, with the fundamentals loosening. The market's risk preference was affected by the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease, tightening the supply at the ore end. The price of ferronickel has been continuously decreasing due to weak downstream demand [3][4]. - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless steel futures follows macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, it focuses on fundamentals. The demand for new energy is an important factor in the long - term, and the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand for stainless steel in the medium - term [4][7]. - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous high - selling and low - buying strategy for nickel and stainless steel has seen a decline in valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week. The macro - level factors such as the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs affected the market's risk preference. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but the actual transactions are stable. The price of ferronickel has been decreasing due to weak downstream demand, and stainless steel is also in a weak state. Although there are some positive macro - signals, the overall situation remains under pressure [3]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous strategies included buying Shanghai Nickel 2511 futures contracts, Shanghai Nickel 2511 call options, and Shanghai Nickel 2512 futures contracts, which have all been exited [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, in the case of inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, it is recommended to short Shanghai Nickel futures and sell call options. In the case of procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options. Similar strategies are also provided for stainless steel [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Sino - US relations have eased, the Fed decided to cut interest rates this week, many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts mainly for the 200 - series, and the approaching rainy season in the Philippines may affect the supply of nickel ore [12]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the trading center of ferronickel has moved down, stainless steel has entered the off - season, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut is uncertain [12]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends**: The nickel and stainless steel futures markets oscillated this week, with prices first rebounding slightly and then falling again. The cost reduction led to a more significant decline. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and some manufacturers announcing production cuts [13]. - **Fund Flow Analysis**: The net positions of key profitable seats have decreased, and the confidence in short - term price increases has weakened. For stainless steel, the inflow of funds is more cautious, with some funds shorting at high levels and reducing positions during the week [14]. - **External Market**: The LME introduced policies to limit large - scale near - month positions to avoid malicious short - squeezing. The external market was relatively weak this week, with inventory digestion difficult, which suppressed the upside space [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Under the current nickel price range, the profits of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are under pressure. The profit space for producing electrowon nickel through different processes is thin, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a loss state. The profit of ferronickel has improved but has not turned positive, and there is still support at the bottom [39][40]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials in China is high, but the supply may be affected by the rainy season in the Philippines. Many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts for the 200 - series, and the production of domestic ferronickel is at a historical low due to competition from Indonesian ferronickel [43]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand for the nickel industry chain has been weak for a long time. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased during the peak season, and the demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate in the new energy sector has recovered. However, the demand for stainless steel is relatively weak, and the peak season demand has fallen short of expectations. Although there are some positive factors in exports, the short - term demand adjustment is neutral [46]. 5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term, the supply of the nickel industry is relatively abundant, with high - speed growth in the production of primary nickel in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the industry balance lies in the new energy demand. Stainless steel demand has limited marginal growth, but the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand in the medium - term. The new energy sector is in a tight - balance and short - supply state during the peak season, but it is difficult to reverse the overall oversupply situation [57].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated October 31, 2025 [1] Report's Core Views Bullish Factors - Strong demand in the new energy sector, with increased production of ternary precursors, is driving up the price of nickel sulfate [3]. - High prices of nickel ore, and with the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, mines are more inclined to hold prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Weak fundamentals of refined nickel, with continuous accumulation of social inventory, suppressing the rebound of nickel prices [3]. - Insufficient demand in the stainless - steel sector, and the "Golden October" peak season was lackluster, with high social inventory [3]. Trading Advisory View - The macro sentiment and the current situation of fundamental oversupply counterbalance each other, limiting the upside potential of prices [3] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of SHFE nickel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1.16%, -0.96%, -0.98%, -0.98% respectively, and LME nickel 3M decreased by -0.90%. The trading volume decreased by -23.48%, and the open interest decreased by -1.0%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 17.61%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by -77.14% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of stainless - steel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1%, -0.66%, -0.35%, -0.23% respectively. The trading volume decreased by -33.67%, and the open interest decreased by -22.61%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by -0.56%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 15.18% [5] Spot Prices - The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel increased by 0.24%, 0.21%, 0.25%, 0.20%, 0.29% respectively [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1094 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons, stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.4 thousand tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 174 tons [7] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts showing the historical trends of stainless - steel futures closing prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel and stainless - steel inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profit margins, and stainless - steel production and profit margins [8][9][14]

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - policy is favorable for the metal sector, leading to a slight rebound in nickel and stainless steel. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply pattern with high inventory, so the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The demand for stainless steel grows weakly and the cost support weakens, and its price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation trend [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,760 yuan/ton and closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,262 (-47,034) lots, and the open interest was 109,686 (-5,360) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to the positive macro - policy expectations [2]. - In the nickel ore market, recent transactions have occurred. Indonesia's CIF tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines was settled at 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from domestic northern mines is expected to be around 43. The shipping season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is coming to an end, and northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel - iron is under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in November (Phase I) is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot premiums of various brands increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,433 (48) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,706 (270) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will remain in low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,750 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,841 (-3,249) lots, and the open interest was 98,223 (-4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the signs of easing Sino - US friction and the upcoming release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the main contract of stainless steel also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, but the transactions were still sluggish, and the actual transactions were mainly low - priced goods. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was from 215 to 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by -2.00 yuan/nickel point to 924.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand growth and weakening cost support, it is expected that the stainless steel price will remain in an interval oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals of stainless steel are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the upside space of stainless - steel prices is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: On October 23, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of different contracts had various changes. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 121150.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 93921.00 hands (+20070), and the open interest was 127005.00 hands (+5694). LME 3 - month nickel had a closing price (electronic - trading) of 15335.00 US dollars/ton, up 195.00 US dollars. The trading volume was 7337.00 hands (+5500) [2]. - **Stainless - steel Futures**: On October 23, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 151385.00 hands (+52175), and the open interest was 166411.00 hands (-13119). The inventory of the previous - period exchange remained flat, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621700.00 tons (+2300) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: For nickel, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122150.00 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 1053.00 million wet tons. The total inventory of stainless - steel spot was 925800.00 tons, showing a decrease of 10100.00 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Industry News - Australian Mining Project: Caedmon Mariot of an Australian mining company will conduct a general study and metallurgical test on its Mulga Tank nickel project, which is the largest nickel deposit in Australia with metal reserves exceeding 5 million tons. Western Mining Group has invested 10 million US dollars in the project, and it is expected to become a strategic asset in three to five years [2]. - Indonesian Mining Policy: The Indonesian government is tightening the application process for the Mineral Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) of mining enterprises. Enterprises need to meet administrative and technical requirements, including holding a forest - use license (PPKH) and paying a mine - restoration deposit at least one year before submitting the RKAB application [2]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: On the supply side, nickel - ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased in October, and domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased with reduced export profits. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless - steel plant production, and alloy and electroplating demand all increased. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the previous - period exchange and LME decreased, while social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in October, and the production of 300 - series decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].