1. Report Information - Report Title: European Line Container Shipping Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - September to October is the traditional off - season, and the capacity regulation is limited with supply pressure remaining. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, raising freight rates in the second half of October. Although the announced price increase may not be fully implemented, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form. The escalating Middle East situation is also expected to support far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [7][26]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 9 - month Market Review - Spot freight rates were still in a downward channel in September, but there were signs of price support. Due to the off - season for shipments and sufficient capacity supply, shipping companies faced greater pressure to attract cargo and continuously lowered freight rates. The online spot freight rate for large containers dropped to a low of $1400 in late September. Futures prices followed the decline, with the October contract hitting a low of 1046 points. However, at the end of the month, shipping companies began to promote long - term contracts for the end of the year and announced price increases for late October, boosting the expectations of far - month futures contracts, and the December contract showed obvious recovery. Overall, EC futures first declined and then recovered, with significantly improved expectations for far - month contracts [10]. - The trading data of European line container shipping futures in September shows that different contracts had different price trends and trading volumes. For example, the EC2510 contract had a monthly decline of 12.34%, while the EC2512 contract had a monthly increase of 12.40% [11]. 4.2 Freight Spot Quote Situation - Most freight rates for the second half of October were raised to over $2000. As the long - term contract season approaches, shipping companies are raising freight rates. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's large - container price in the third week of October started at $1810 and reached a maximum of $1911. Mainstream shipping companies such as CMA CGM, OOCL, Evergreen, ONE, and HMM had large - container quotes in the range of $1400 - $1620 in the first half of the month and $2000 - $2220 in the second half, with an increase of about $600. However, the overall loading forecast rate after the National Day holiday was low, and the price increase may not be implemented. Attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow to form a price - increasing force [15]. 4.3 Container Shipping Supply - Demand Analysis 4.3.1 Demand Side - China's exports showed marginal slowdown in August, but leading indicators improved in September. In August, China's total exports were $321.81 billion, with a year - on - year growth of 4.4%, and the growth rate slowed by 2.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. The main reasons for the weakening of exports were the implementation of tariffs and the cooling of "rush - to - export." In September, the new export order index rebounded by 1 percentage point, and the BDI index increased significantly compared with August, indicating the resilience of external demand [16]. - The economic sentiment in Europe improved in September but was severely differentiated in structure, with potential downward risks in long - term demand. The EU economic sentiment index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 95.5% in September, and the preliminary value of the S&P Eurozone composite PMI improved to 51.2%. However, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, back below the boom - bust line. Germany's service industry grew rapidly, but the manufacturing industries in Germany and France declined significantly. Overall, although the current comprehensive demand in Europe has improved, the structural differentiation may lead to the unsustainability of the improvement, and the support from the demand side for freight rate increases is limited [18]. 4.3.2 Supply Side - In terms of potential capacity, since July 2024, new container ship orders globally have increased significantly. The number of shipbuilding orders on hand and the completion volume are significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the number of container ship orders on hand has continued to grow at a high rate this year, with the growth rate accelerating in August. It is expected that container shipping capacity will continue to grow at a relatively high rate with the continuous delivery of new ships [20]. - In terms of actual capacity, the number of blank sailings increased in October, with the weekly average capacity dropping to about 250,000 TEU, but it was still at a relatively high level in the off - season. The capacity regulation was not strong, and the weekly average capacity in November is expected to rise to about 286,000 TEU, indicating long - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will further increase blank sailings to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season [20]. - The Israel - Palestine conflict in the Red Sea is intensifying. The military confrontation between Israel and the Houthi rebels continued in September. The probability of continued detours in the Red Sea this year is high, and it is unlikely to bring additional capacity supply pressure [22]. 4.4 Outlook - September to October is the traditional off - season, and the capacity regulation is limited with supply pressure remaining. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, raising freight rates in the second half of October. Although the announced price increase may not be fully implemented, a bottom - up recovery trend is likely to form. The escalating Middle East situation is also expected to support far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [26].

Group 1 - The stock of Bluefeng Biochemical experienced a rapid drop after hitting the daily limit up, showcasing a "heaven and earth board" phenomenon, following seven consecutive days of limit up [1] - The stock opened at 9.54 CNY, down 8.27% from the previous close, with a trading volume of 4,278 and a transaction amount of 4.31 million CNY [2] Group 2 - Gold stocks surged at the market opening, with companies like Chifeng Gold and Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit up, following the news that spot gold prices surpassed 4,000 USD per ounce for the first time in history, marking a year-to-date increase of over 52% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.4% higher, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index opened 0.53% and 0.4% higher, respectively [4][5] - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.12%, driven by a rise in pharmaceutical stocks and a significant jump in Hang Seng Bank's stock price due to HSBC's plan to privatize it, valued at approximately 290.7 billion HKD [6][7]

1. Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The SCFIS index accelerated its decline this week, falling below 1130 points, indicating that the shipping reality is weaker than expected, and the basis protection cushion for futures has significantly decreased. Although Maersk raised the freight rate for the third week of October to $1800 per large container last week, which shows the shipowners' willingness to support prices at the end of the year and boosts market sentiment, the overall loading forecast rate after the National Day holiday is low, and this price may not be realized. Attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow up to form a price increase force to bottom out the freight rate. In addition, the renewed escalation of the Middle East situation is expected to support the far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The SCFIS index accelerated its decline this week, falling below 1130 points, with the basis protection cushion for futures significantly decreasing. Maersk raised the October third - week freight rate, but the post - National Day loading forecast rate is low, and the price may not be realized. The Middle East situation is expected to support far - month contracts [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: There should be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 22 to September 26, the demand for China's export container transportation weakened, the freight rates in the ocean - going routes continued to adjust, and the comprehensive index continued to decline. On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1114.52 points, down 7.0% from the previous period, with the decline narrowing. - **European Routes**: Economic data in Europe is poor, demand growth in the transportation market lacks momentum, and the spot market booking price continued to decline. On September 26, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe was $971/TEU, down 7.7% from the previous period. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The transportation market situation is similar to that in Europe, and the market freight rate continued to adjust. On September 26, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean was $1485/TEU, down 9.3% from the previous period. - **North American Routes**: Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and rising inflation expectations, the economic situation in the US is declining, demand in the transportation market has not improved, and the spot market booking price continued to fall. On September 26, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $1460/FEU and $2385/FEU respectively, down 10.8% and 6.7% from the previous period [9]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | September 29, 2025 | September 22, 2025 | Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1120.49 | 1254.92 | - 134.43 | - 10.7% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 921.25 | 1193.64 | - 272.39 | - 22.8% | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1150.8 | 1141.0 | 1115.0 | 1122.0 | - 35.8 | - 3.11 | 16679 | 29314 | - 3117 | | EC2512 | 1880.6 | 1763.0 | 1756.3 | 1735.0 | - 24.3 | - 1.36 | 11879 | 20683 | - 1012 | | EC2602 | 1691.9 | 1668.1 | 1667.0 | 1644.7 | - 24.9 | - 1.47 | 4011 | 8852 | 84 | | EC2604 | 1279.1 | 1260.0 | 1253.0 | 1253.1 | - 26.1 | - 2.04 | 1189 | 9110 | 11 | | EC2606 | 1482.6 | 1463.6 | 1452.7 | 1453.8 | - 29.9 | - 2.02 | 97 | 930 | - 8 | | EC2608 | 1631.0 | 1601.1 | 1595.0 | 1598.9 | - 36.0 | - 2.21 | 75 | 530 | - 12 | [6] 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][18][23][26]

Group 1 - Storage chip concept stocks are actively trading, with Shannon Chip rising over 6%, and other companies like Demingli, Baiwei Storage, and Xiechuang Data also seeing gains [2] - Adata, a major storage module manufacturer, announced it will stop quoting DDR4 prices starting from the 29th, prioritizing the supply of DDR5 and NAND flash memory to key customers [2] - The battery sector is performing well, with Tianji shares rising over 9%, and other companies like Hunan Youneng, Penghui Energy, Wanrun New Energy, Rongbai Technology, and Tianhong Lithium Battery also experiencing increases [2] Group 2 - The A-share market opened with mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index flat, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.43% [3] - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.67%, with pharmaceutical stocks rebounding, such as Laike Pharmaceutical rising nearly 15% [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry to stabilize growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste like used power batteries and photovoltaic components [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between the current reality and strong expectations. The cargo receiving in early October is weak. Although shipping companies' price increase announcements have boosted the market sentiment, the purpose is to stabilize prices and encourage pre - holiday bookings, with poor expected implementation. Consider shorting the October contract at high points [1]. - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcement nodes, high operational space for shipping companies to slow down and suspend voyages, and the long - term agreement signing season from December to January [1]. - In terms of valuation, the 12 and 02 contracts are already highly valued, but funds may be more concentrated on them, so a long - allocation strategy is recommended in the short term. The 04 contract, as an off - season contract, is suitable for short - allocation, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1173.0, 1783.1, 1696.2, 1285.1, and 1482.3 respectively, with daily increases of 5.26%, 5.10%, 6.81%, 1.91%, and 2.56% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, FC2512 - 2602 were - 610.1 and 86.9 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 23.0 and - 21.5, and week - on - week changes of - 30.6 and 19.4 [1]. - **Market Indicators**: The Tetanite index on September 15, 2025, was 1440.24 points, down 8.06% from the previous period; the SCFI (European Line) on September 19, 2025, was 1052 dollars/TEU, down 8.84% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1470.97 points, down 4.31%; the NCFI was 673.61 points, down 7.65% [1]. Spot Market Data - **Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the period from the end of September to early October (week 39 - 41). In week 39, the average quotation was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk), with MSK's price rising from 1500 to 1570 dollars. In weeks 40 - 41, the average quotation was 1450 dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the disk). In week 42, MSK's opening quotation was 1800 dollars (up 400 dollars), CMA's was 2520 dollars (up 900 dollars), HPL's was 2035 dollars (up 600 dollars), and OOCL's was 2000 dollars (up 500 dollars) [1][2]. News - On September 25, 2025, US Middle East envoy Witkoff introduced Trump's 21 - point Middle East and Gaza peace plan, expecting a breakthrough in the Gaza issue in the coming days. Netanyahu stated that some Western countries' recognition of the State of Palestine would not bind Israel. On September 26, 2025, Trump had a good talk about the Gaza issue and a pleasant conversation with Netanyahu [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].

Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices show a smooth downward trend in the off - season, with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the freight rate reduction rate can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East is expected to support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route and other routes have decreased significantly, showing a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shipping Market**: From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the freight rates of ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the comprehensive index expanded. The freight rates of European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all decreased [9]. - **Economic Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. Germany's September ZEW economic situation index fell to - 76.4 points, and the US September Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, both lower than market expectations [9][10]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US vetoed the permanent cease - fire resolution in Gaza at the UN Security Council. There are continuous military operations between the Israeli army and Hamas in Gaza, which has a certain impact on the shipping market [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **European Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1254.92 points, a decrease of 12.9% compared with September 15th [12]. - **US West Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, a decrease of 11.6% compared with September 15th [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - **Contract Data**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 24th are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 10, the cargo receiving was still weak. After the market closed, MSK raised the post - holiday weekly freight rate to $1800 (+$400). Other shipping companies may follow suit before the holiday. However, the purpose of this price increase is to stabilize prices and encourage downstream shippers to book cabins before the holiday, not a real price increase. The 10 - contract can be shorted depending on the subsequent upward trend [1]. - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price increase announcements, high operation space for shipping companies to slow down and suspend voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the 12 - contract is not low, but funds may be more concentrated on this contract. It is recommended to take a long - allocation approach in the short term. The 02 - contract may have higher cost - effectiveness than the 12 - contract, and its settlement price may be higher due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February 17, 2026). The 04 - contract currently has a high valuation and is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term as an off - season contract, but its low liquidity may be easily disturbed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1114.4, 1696.5, 1588.1, 1261.0, and 1445.3 respectively, with daily changes of 1.31%, 4.50%, 3.42%, 2.14%, and 1.69% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602, 10 - 12, and 02 - 04 were - 582.1, 108.4, - 582.1 (- 58.7), and 327.1 (+26.1) respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 10 - contract was around 95 points [1]. Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Changes**: From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the TEU index decreased by 8.06%, the SCH index decreased by 8.84%, the CCFI (European Line) index decreased by 4.31%, and the NCFI index decreased by 7.65% [1]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation increased from $1500 to $1570, PA Alliance's was $1550 - $1600, and OA Alliance's was $1600 - $1720 [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK's was $1400, PA's was $1300 - $1500 (YML's $1300 was the lowest of the year), and OA's was $1400 - $1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: MSK's opening quotation was $1800 (a week - on - week increase of $400), CMA's was $2520 (+$900), and HPL's was $2035 (+$600) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].