分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 分析师：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 分析师：陈一凡 从业资格证号：F3054270 投资咨询证号：Z0015946 分析师：卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F03101843 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 助理分析师：张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【能源化工周报】 油价宽幅波动，化工震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-05-26 目录 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度观点策略汇总 | 原油（SC） | 天然橡胶（RU&NR） | 聚酯（TA&EG&PF） | 05 苯乙烯（EB） 06 液化石油气（LPG） 07 丁二烯橡胶（BR） 08 烧碱（SH） 09 PVC（V） 10 沥青（BU） 11 集运 ...

1-22 2024-12-22 2025-01-22 — TL00-TL01 — TL00-TL02 —— TL01-TL02 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于 货有限公司认为可靠的 完整性不作任何保证。本 不代表广发期货或其附属机 法，并不代表广发期货交 参考，报告中的信息或距 民青据此投资，风险目或担 ，版权归广发期货所有 t或询价 1或调价 3 不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、不致，发期货书面 发期货"。 and and 关注教信念会 TS跨期价差 | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年5月26日 | | | Z0016628 | | 品种 | 价差 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | IF期现价差 | -36.07 | -1.81 | 10.60% | 8.50% | | H期现价差 | 期现价差 -18.85 | -0.62 | 15.10% | 9.70% | | IC期现价差 | ...

Group 1: EC Futures Market Data - EC2506 had a closing price of 1768.0 with a 5.41% increase, volume of 31117, and an open interest of 22184 with a decrease of 3723 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 2206.0 with a 4.00% increase, volume of 91292, and an open interest of 51631 with a decrease of 1405 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1451.9 with a 2.28% increase, volume of 13997, and an open interest of 22549 with a decrease of 1372 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1617.3 with a 2.78% increase, volume of 2266, and an open interest of 4693 with a decrease of 185 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1450.2 with a 2.36% increase, volume of 532, and an open interest of 2799 with a decrease of 111 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1266.0 with a 1.44% increase, volume of 648, and an open interest of 3151 with a decrease of 148 [2] - The month - spread of EC2506 - 2508 had a previous day value of - 438.0, a month - on - month increase of 5.9, and a week - on - week increase of 157.0 [2] - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 had a previous day value of 754.1, a month - on - month increase of 52.6, and a week - on - week decrease of 80.9 [2] - The month - spread of EC2506 - 2510 had a previous day value of 316.1, a month - on - month increase of 58.5, and a week - on - week increase of 76.1 [2] - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 had a previous day value of - 165.4, a month - on - month decrease of 11.4, and a week - on - week decrease of 15.4 [2] - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 had a previous day value of 167.1, a month - on - month increase of 10.3, and a week - on - week decrease of 8.4 [2] Group 2: Shipping Index Data - SCHIS was 1265.3 on 2025/5/19, down 2.86% from the previous period and 5.54% from two periods ago [2] - SCFI was 1154 $/TEU on 2025/5/16, down 0.60% from the previous period [2] - CCFI was 1430.35 points on 2025/5/16, down 1.03% from the previous period [2] - NCFI was 750.91 points on 2025/5/16, down 0.78% from the previous period and 0.94% from two periods ago [2] - TCI (European line) was 646.15 points on 2025/5/22, unchanged from the previous periods [2] - FBX11 was 2459 $/FEU on 2025/5/16, up 2.57% from the previous period and 6.05% from two periods ago [2] - WCI was 2035 $/FEU on 2025/5/15, down 0.54% from the previous period and 7.08% from two periods ago [2] - XSI - C was 1909 $/FEU on 2025/5/19, down 0.42% from the previous period and 0.98% from two periods ago [2] Group 3: Shipping Capacity and Price Information - In May and June 2025 (tentatively), the weekly average shipping capacities were 30.3 and 30.5 million TEU respectively. OA added two sailings cancellations in week 23, and PA added one in week 24 [2] - In the second half of May, the European line quotes decreased month - on - month, reaching around 1200 - 1250 points at the end of May [3] - For June, shipping companies except MSK planned to raise prices by an average of 3000 US dollars (equivalent to 2050 points on the disk), and MSK planned to raise prices by 2200 US dollars, lower than market expectations. HMM lowered prices to 2500 US dollars, and the average price of shipping companies on the disk was 2000 points [3] Group 4: Shipping News - On 5/21, the EU was considering modifying the tax - free policy for small packages under 150 euros entering its territory and planned to impose a unified tariff. France was actively promoting additional fees for such packages, and the UK and Japan were considering similar measures [4] - On 5/21, G7 members began discussing imposing tariffs on low - value, oversupplied goods from China [4] Group 5: Middle East Situation News - On 5/22, Hamas stated that it would not give up armed resistance and denied that its military leader was killed. It also rejected Israel's cease - fire preconditions and arrangements for Gaza's future [5] - On 5/22, according to US media, Israel was preparing to quickly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations broke down [6]

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/22 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1677,2 | -2.82 | -411.9 | 28893 | | 25907 | 352 | | | EC2508 | | 2121.1 | -6.27 | -855.8 | 100512 | | 53036 | 1266 | | | EC2510 | | 1419.6 | -1.14 | -154.3 | 15589 | | 23921 | -166 | | | EC2512 | | 1573.6 | -1.90 | -308.3 | 1762 | | 4878 | -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1416.8 | -0.99 | -151.5 | 839 | | 2910 | -133 | | | EC2604 | | 1248.0 | -0. ...

摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工有所好转，集运价格走势分化。 【工业生产】工业生产平稳运行 。本周，高炉开工保持韧性，同比-0.5pct至2.6%。化工链中除纯碱开工 大幅回落外，PTA、涤纶长丝等开工均有改善，同比分别+3.4pct至4.7%、+1.9pct至4.8%。汽车半钢胎开 工率也有明显好转，同比+15.5pct至-2.4%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率均明显不及去年同期，同比 分别+1.5pct至-3.5%、-0.6pct至-6.9%。而沥青开工率有较大上行，同比+4.8pct至6.8%。 【下游需求】商品房成交持续回落，集运价格走势分化。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积有所回落，同 比-45.7pct至-12%；其中，一线、二线成交降幅较大。此外，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐 有所回落，同比分别-15.3pct至-6.2%、-7.1pct至-0.3%。集运价格表现分化，美西航线运价延续上涨，但 东南亚航线运价有较大回落。 【物价】农产品价格表现分化、工业品价格有所回升。 本周，农产品方面，蔬菜、鸡蛋价格有所回落， 环比分别-2.2%、-0 ...

Group 1 - The coal industry is expected to see a decline in operating revenue in 2024, with a decrease in operating cash flow and significant net outflow in investment cash flow. However, overall debt repayment capability remains strong despite high leverage and increasing debt levels [4] - In 2025, coal enterprises' profitability will still be constrained, but there will be support for overall profitability. Operating cash flow is expected to remain relatively ample, while investment cash flow will continue to show a rigid net outflow [4] Group 2 - The banking sector is experiencing a systematic decline in interest rates due to recent monetary policy measures, with an expected improvement in industry interest margins by over 5 basis points. The management of funding costs is anticipated to alleviate pressure on interest margins [5] - The banking sector's fundamentals are stable, and there is optimism regarding the performance of bank stocks moving forward [5] Group 3 - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, although the growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared to March. From January to April, the total retail sales amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - The restaurant industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of stores and a rise in market activity in first-tier cities. Policy stimuli are expected to improve demand, while competition among stores is intensifying [10] Group 4 - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in shipping demand, resulting in a rapid increase in freight rates for routes between the U.S. and China. The average freight rates for the U.S. West and East routes rose by 31.7% and 22.0%, respectively [8]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 21 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive data on EC futures contracts, including prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. It also provides information on shipping capacity arrangements, recent European line quotes, and relevant news in the shipping industry, such as tariff adjustments and Middle - East situation updates [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - Price and Change: Different EC futures contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) have varying closing prices and percentage changes. For example, EC2506 closed at 17722 with a 5.18% increase, while EC2604 closed at 1249.0 with a 0.59% increase [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interest also differ among contracts. EC2506 had a trading volume of 71025 and an open interest of 28322, with a decrease of 5885 in open interest [2]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spreads between different contract months show different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was - 615.7, with a day - on - day change of - 20.7 and a week - on - week change of - 184.9 [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In May and June 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacity is 30.3 and 30.5 million TEU respectively. OA added two sailings cancellations in week 23, and PA added one in week 24 [2]. European Line Quotes - MSC's June opening quote is 2640 US dollars. Quotes in the second half of May decreased month - on - month, landing at around 1200 - 1250 points at the end of May. In June, except for MSK, other shipping companies announced price increases, with an average of 3000 US dollars (equivalent to 2050 points on the disk). MSK's Japan - Europe base cabin quotes before June were 1500 US dollars and it recently announced a price increase for the local line freight [3]. Shipping News - Tariff Adjustment: Starting from May 14 for 90 days, the US tariff rate on China will drop from 145% to 30%, and China's tariff rate on the US will drop from 125% to 10%. Additionally, a 24% reciprocal tariff will be exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small parcels worth less than 800 US dollars from 120% to 54% and maintained a 100 - dollar specific tariff per item [4][5]. - Middle - East Situation: Hamas officials stated that reports of releasing Israeli detainees in exchange for a two - month cease - fire were false. As of May 19, cease - fire negotiations had made no progress, with differences between Israel and Hamas on the terms of releasing detainees [5]. Shipping Indexes - Multiple shipping indexes are presented, including SCFI, CCFI, NCFI, TCI, FBX11, WCI, and XSI - C. Their values, changes, and historical trends are shown. For example, the SCFI on May 16 was 1154 US dollars/TEU, with a 0.60% decrease from the previous period [2].