证券研究报告 | 2025年06月15日 ETF 周报 本周医药 ETF 领涨，资金净赎回超 25 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 06 月 09 日至 2025 年 06 月 13 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.14%。宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.31%，收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.84%，收益 最高。按主题进行分类，医药 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.32%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 172.27 亿元，总体规模减少 275.83 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 5.30 亿元；按板块来看，周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 12.47 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多， 为 17.96 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的估值分 位数相对较低。与前周相比，周期、新能车、A5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in A-shares due to a black swan event has raised concerns about its impact on the market, while defensive sectors like oil and precious metals have shown resilience [1][5][6]. Market Reaction - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext index dropping over 1% and more than 4,400 stocks falling [1][3]. - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.47 trillion, with defensive sectors such as mining, precious metals, and oil rising against the trend [3][6]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the news of Israel's attack on Iran, has triggered global market panic and heightened concerns about potential wider conflicts [5][9]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term impacts are significant, systemic risks remain manageable, and markets may stabilize over time [4][9][10]. Defensive Asset Allocation - Historical data indicates that defensive sectors like gold and oil tend to outperform in the month following a conflict outbreak, while tech growth sectors may experience increased volatility [11]. - Recommendations for defensive asset allocation include diversifying investments across stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash to mitigate risks from single events [20]. Investment Strategies - Maintaining a defensive asset allocation is crucial during market volatility, with a focus on bond funds, money market funds, and high-dividend funds [19][18]. - Cash management is emphasized, suggesting a 10%-15% cash position to provide liquidity and opportunities during market downturns [21]. - Dollar-cost averaging through regular investments can help smooth out volatility and lower overall costs during market dips [23]. Conclusion - A well-structured investment portfolio should maintain its course during turbulent times, with preparedness being key to navigating market fluctuations [24].

Group 1 - The market experienced a sudden downturn due to Israel's strike on Iran, leading to a rise in oil and gold prices while stock futures in Japan and the US fell sharply [1] - A significant sell-off occurred in the stock market, with a trading volume of 140 billion and 4,600 stocks declining, marking a notably negative trading day [4] - The market is characterized by various black swan events, and those who cannot endure short-term volatility may miss out on profits [3] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the market index is expected to recover in the afternoon, with a critical support level at 3,380 points [6] - The performance of key sectors such as banking, liquor, and securities will be crucial in stabilizing the market [6] - A shift in capital from high to low positions is anticipated after a sharp decline, which may not necessarily be negative for the market [6] Group 3 - The strategy proposed emphasizes avoiding stock trading and suggests that the market index will eventually reach new highs this year [8] - The conclusion indicates that the outcome of the market is predictable, and patience is required for returns, similar to how individuals exchange time for income in their jobs [8]

Group 1 - The 2024 Hong Kong IPO market has significantly recovered, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange returning to the position of the fourth largest fundraising hub globally, raising approximately HKD 87.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89% [8][11][14] - 60% of new stocks recorded price increases on their first trading day, while only 36% faced a decline, indicating profitable opportunities for retail investors [5][8] - The Hang Seng Index ended a four-month decline, reaching a peak of 23,000 points, and recorded a 17.67% annual increase [5][11] Group 2 - The influx of mainland capital into Hong Kong stocks has become a significant source of liquidity, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect trading volume exceeding one-third of the total market [5][11] - In 2024, 281 Hong Kong companies repurchased shares totaling over HKD 265 billion, doubling year-on-year [5][11] - The trend of A-share leading companies preparing for listings in Hong Kong is expected to continue, contributing to a prosperous IPO market in 2025 [6][8] Group 3 - The technology sector has emerged as the leading industry for IPOs in Hong Kong, with 18 companies listed in 2024, reflecting an increase in technological content among new listings [25][29] - Guangdong province has surpassed Shanghai as the top contributor to Hong Kong IPOs, with 18 new listings, while Beijing ranks second with 11 [29][34] - The average time from initial application to official listing has decreased to 382 days, a reduction of 67 days compared to the previous year [56][57]

Core Points - The Chinese government is advancing a new round of comprehensive reform pilot programs in Shenzhen, building on the achievements of the 2020 reform pilot [1][2] - The reform initiatives focus on four key areas: education and talent reform, financial support for high-quality economic development, establishing a higher-level open economy, and improving governance models [1][2] - Shenzhen's GDP is projected to grow from 2.78 trillion yuan in 2020 to 3.68 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [2] - The city has seen an increase in R&D investment from 151.08 billion yuan in 2020 to 223.66 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting an average annual growth of 13.9% [2] Group 1: Reform Initiatives - The reform includes integrating education, technology, and talent systems to enhance collaboration between academia and industry [1] - Financial mechanisms will be innovated to support emerging industries and improve the market-oriented allocation of data resources [1][3] - A new open economic system will be established to optimize trade and facilitate personnel movement [1][3] Group 2: Economic Performance - Shenzhen has achieved significant progress in innovation, including the establishment of a cross-border capital pool and advancements in intellectual property securitization [2] - The city has produced 48 reform measures that have been replicated in other regions, demonstrating a ripple effect of reform [2] - The industrial output value and added value have ranked first among cities in China for three consecutive years [2] Group 3: Strategic Industries - Artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy are prioritized as strategic emerging industries, with over 2,600 AI enterprises established [3] - Shenzhen has introduced the first local regulations on low-altitude economy and is advancing infrastructure development in this sector [3] Group 4: Support from Government - The National Development and Reform Commission will collaborate with local authorities to ensure the implementation of the reform initiatives [4][5] - A comprehensive management system will be established to track the progress of reforms and ensure legal support for the initiatives [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition to a "penetrating supervision" era in China's anti-corruption governance, highlighting the increased compliance management requirements for enterprises following the implementation of the new "Supervision Law" and related guidelines [1]. Group 1: Compliance Management Trends - The new "Supervision Law" officially took effect on June 1, marking a significant shift in compliance management expectations for enterprises [1]. - In 2024, a total of 1,011 listed companies faced penalties for violations, resulting in 2,289 fines totaling 1.033 billion yuan, with industries such as banking, computer, and power equipment being heavily impacted [1]. - The integration of AI into compliance decision-making processes indicates a trend towards "penetrating regulation" and "intelligent tools" in compliance management [1]. Group 2: Key Compliance Issues and Risk Prevention - The article outlines six core modules where compliance issues are most concentrated, which will be detailed in the "Enterprise Compliance Practice Analysis - 2025 Mid-Year Special" [1]. - The six major compliance issues include corporate governance, responsibilities of directors and supervisors under the new company law, and human resources compliance management [2][4][15]. Group 3: Specific Compliance Areas - Corporate governance compliance issues focus on shareholder contribution disputes, equity transfer risks, and related party transaction compliance, supported by six real case studies [5]. - The responsibilities of directors and supervisors under the new company law will be analyzed, including criminal and civil liabilities related to insider trading and illegal disclosures [8]. - Human resources compliance management will address potential pitfalls throughout the employment process, including discrimination disputes and trial period termination controversies [15]. Group 4: ESG Disclosure and Compliance - The article highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny on ESG disclosures, urging listed companies to enhance the quality of their disclosures in line with the latest requirements from stock exchanges [17]. - A comparative analysis of different ESG rating methodologies will be provided, along with case studies from companies like SMIC and GoerTek to illustrate practical disclosure points [17].

Group 1: TransMedics Group - TransMedics Group reported Q1 2025 sales of over $143 million, exceeding analyst expectations by approximately 16% [2] - The company achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70, more than double the expected amount [3] - TransMedics increased its full-year revenue guidance by $34 million, now forecasting $575 million, which implies a growth of 30% compared to 2024 [4] Group 2: Everus - Everus reported Q1 sales of nearly $827 million, beating forecasts by over $150 million, resulting in a sales beat of over 22% [6] - The company's non-adjusted EPS rose by 31% to $0.72, contrary to analyst expectations of a decline [6] - Everus's order backlog increased by 41% to $3.1 billion, providing a solid revenue floor for future growth [8] Group 3: Excelerate Energy - Excelerate Energy's Q1 sales reached $315 million, surpassing estimates by over 51% [11] - Revenues grew by over 57%, significantly higher than the expected growth of just 4% [11] - The company is positioned to benefit from rising global demand for LNG, with Jefferies initiating coverage with a $39 price target [11]

午后会迎来新行情了 大家，目前还相信牛市吗？ 如果，你不相信牛市肯定就等不到牛市了。证券已经拉升了，牛市旗手已经有一个提前上涨了，关键是等地产、白酒的补涨，只有联动上涨才会有大行情。 不要担心白酒的回调，目前就是用银行、证券的拉升对冲它的下跌，等它跌透了就可以一起拉升了，证券的空间远不止这个，特别是港股证券。 大盘指数还会继续拉升，大家炒股能不能挣钱与大盘指数涨跌关系有限，这是我们指数ETF玩家关心的事情，我们不可能去关注题材、概念、热点、游资、 龙虎榜吧。 大家不相信牛市而踏空行情，又因为不甘心而追涨。指数已经没有问题，关键是自己的选择筹码问题了。结构性行情，一定要踏准筹码节奏。 大盘指数上涨了，一样有很多行业下跌，白酒就是典型，只是它的跌幅太慢了，有人踏空大幅低开，放量跌停就好了。 今日的A股又缩量了，三大指数继续上涨，股票继续普跌。白酒砸盘的情况下，大盘指数震荡向上。证券、医疗再次上涨，港股恒生医疗再次大涨了。 这个位置的行情，我们指数玩家很容易面对，白酒如果跌到浮亏10%的时候补仓就完事了，市场还需要等它止跌反弹，与证券、地产等加速上涨。否则，没 有办法快速拉升上证指数，就不能放量…… 不出意外，接下 ...

Core Points - The central government has issued an opinion to deepen reform and innovation in Shenzhen, focusing on comprehensive reform pilot initiatives [1][3] Group 1: Key Initiatives - The opinion outlines four major initiatives: reforming education and talent systems, enhancing financial and technological support for the real economy, establishing a higher-level open economy, and improving governance models [3][4] - Guangdong province is tasked with creating conditions for Shenzhen's comprehensive reform pilot, including supporting education and technology reforms, financial market reforms, and enhancing international trade [4][5] Group 2: Industry Development Focus - Shenzhen aims to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy sectors, establishing itself as a national innovation hub in these areas [5][6] - The government plans to support the establishment of high-level innovation platforms and promote collaborative projects among enterprises, universities, and research institutions [5][6] Group 3: Financial and Technological Support - The government will enhance mechanisms for credit and insurance support for technological innovation, aiming to create a favorable environment for tech-driven enterprises [6][7] - There is a focus on improving the financial ecosystem for technology firms, including optimizing financing mechanisms and supporting the transformation of scientific achievements into marketable products [7][8] Group 4: Service Industry Opening - The opinion emphasizes the importance of expanding the service industry, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and finance, to enhance Shenzhen's role in the national service sector [8] - Specific measures include promoting digital services, increasing foreign investment in healthcare, and expanding the operational scope of financial institutions [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangdong Province aims to deepen the opening of key service sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and finance, while encouraging the development of overseas gaming businesses [1] Group 2 - The government will support the opening and development of telecommunications services and related digital industries, exploring the expansion of value-added telecommunications pilot business scope, and promoting the establishment of cross-border service centers and technology service platforms [1] - There will be an increase in the level of openness in the healthcare and wellness sector, promoting cooperation in medical and elderly care institutions, and supporting foreign investment in research and application in areas such as human stem cells and gene diagnosis and treatment [1] - The financial sector will see a push for international cooperation, with a gradual expansion of the business scope of financial institutions and support for multinational companies registered in Shenzhen to conduct cross-border capital centralized operations in RMB [1]