1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,600 - 15,500 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 in the short - term [2] - Currently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port shows a slight accumulation trend, with bonded warehouses reducing inventory and general trade warehouses increasing inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude [2] - In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, towards the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was lower than expected, with a slight increase in finished product inventory. Due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,945 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 805 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 99,492 lots, down 9,387 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 47,606 lots, down 4,373 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,778 lots, down 2,201 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,048 lots, down 437 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 179,910 tons, down 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 39,716 tons, up 908 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 55 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 410 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,872 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 297 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.01 Thai baht/kg, down 1.1 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 49.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.65 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.79%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.39%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.55%, down 7.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.55%, down 7.44 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (July 27 - August 2, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with less impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on tapping operations [2] - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, up 6,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous period and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous period and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Due to rainfall in Yunnan, there is less glue, and the purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, the weather is fair, tapping operations are gradually carried out, and the output of raw materials on the island shows a seasonal increase. Affected by factors such as profit, local processing plants' enthusiasm for snapping up raw materials at high prices has increased, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is in a weak oscillation. Short - term commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Myanmar on the border conflict has been reached. Rubber may return to a weak performance. It is recommended to short on rallies for single - side trading [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Disk - In the domestic market, RU主力 decreased from 15065 to 15010, NR主力 dropped from 12810 to 12670, and BR主力 fell from 11955 to 11835. In the overseas market, Tocom RSS3 decreased from 326.8 to 322.9 (yen/kilogram), and Sicom TF remained unchanged at 173.7 (cents/kilogram) [3] Futures Spreads - For inter - period spreads, RU2601 - RU2509 increased from 780 to 785, RU2605 - RU2601 rose from 125 to 135, NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 30 to - 20, and BR主力 - 次主力 dropped from 35 to 30. For cross - variety spreads, RU - NR increased from 2255 to 2340, RU - BR rose from 3110 to 3175, and NR - BR decreased from 855 to 835. For cross - market spreads, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from - 100 to - 82, and NR - Sicom TF ($) decreased from 49 to 28 [3] Raw Material Prices - In Thailand (in Thai baht per kilogram), the price of raw rubber sheets decreased from 63.11 to 62.01, glue increased from 55.30 to 55.50, and cup rubber decreased from 50.00 to 49.35. In Hainan and Yunnan (in yuan per ton), the prices of Hainan and Yunnan glue for concentrated latex and whole milk remained unchanged [3] Factory Costs and Profits - The delivery profit of whole - milk latex decreased in Hainan and Yunnan. The production profit of concentrated latex increased in Thailand. The profit of smoke - sheet rubber and 20 - grade rubber decreased in Thailand. The profit of synthetic rubber decreased for some varieties [3] Domestic Spot - The prices of light - colored rubber, dark - colored rubber, latex, synthetic rubber, and mixed rubber decreased for most varieties. The prices of some varieties such as domestic 9710 and Shanghai Hainan bulk latex remained unchanged [3] Futures - Spot Spreads - For RU spreads, RU - 泰混 increased from 365 to 410, RU - 老全乳 decreased from 15 to 10, and RU - 越南3L increased from 15 to 60. For NR spreads, NR - 泰标交割利润 decreased from - 343 to - 358, NR - 印标交割利润 decreased from 231 to 145, and NR - 马标交割利润 decreased from - 307 to - 322 [3] Spot Spreads - For variety spreads, 泰标 - 泰混 ($) remained unchanged at 10, 越南3L - 泰混 remained unchanged at 350, and 国产标二 - 泰混 increased from - 850 to - 750. The difference between old whole - milk latex and Vietnamese 3L increased from 0 to 50, and the difference between domestic 9710 and Thai - mixed rubber increased from - 350 to - 250 [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.6694. The US dollar/Chinese yuan increased from 7.1467 to 7.1511. SHIBOR - overnight decreased from 1.467 to 1.366, and SHIBOR - seven - day decreased from 1.596 to 1.545 [3] Supply, Inventory, and Demand - In terms of supply, the prices of raw materials in Thailand changed. In terms of inventory, as of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade increased by 0.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.91%. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 0.87 percentage points month - on - month and 3.92 percentage points year - on - year, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 2.34 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 11.96 percentage points year - on - year [4]

Market Overview - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on July 30, with Yanggu Huatai leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11203.03, down 0.77% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the rubber sector included: - Zhen'an Technology (300767) with a closing price of 15.18, up 11.29% and a trading volume of 449,900 shares [1] - Tiantie Technology (300587) closed at 7.16, up 3.02% with a trading volume of 521,600 shares [1] - Major decliners included: - Yanggu Huatai (300121) closed at 14.50, down 4.61% with a trading volume of 277,500 shares [2] - Litong Technology (832225) closed at 20.11, down 4.56% with a trading volume of 38,900 shares [2] Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 106 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 41.11 million yuan [2] - The net inflow from speculative funds was 65.18 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tian Tie Technology (300587) had a main fund net inflow of 16.06 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 42.17 million yuan [3] - Zhen'an Technology (300767) recorded a main fund net inflow of 9.55 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 37.23 million yuan [3] - Longxing Technology (002442) had a main fund net outflow of 3.24 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net inflow of 5.62 million yuan [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [3] 2. Core Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On July 29, the closing price of the main contract was 11,835, down 120 from the previous day and 265 from the previous week; the position volume was 41,136, a decrease of 3,967 from the previous day and 8,215 from the previous week; the trading volume was 104,614, a decrease of 46,246 from the previous day and 16,773 from the previous week; the warehouse receipt quantity was 10,190, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and an increase of 340 from the previous week; the virtual - real ratio was 20.18, down 2 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread Metrics**: The butadiene basis was 15, down 30 from the previous day and up 115 from the previous week; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 565, up 120 from the previous day and 365 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene basis was 312, down 80 from the previous day and up 165 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was - 30, up 5 from the previous day and down 45 from the previous week; the 9 - 10 month spread was 30, up 5 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 11,850, down 150 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,800, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,475, unchanged from the previous day; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,750, unchanged from the previous day and up 20 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit Metrics**: The spot processing profit was 113, up 3 from the previous day and 309 from the previous week; the futures processing profit was 98, up 33 from the previous day and 194 from the previous week; the import profit was - 86,802, down 290 from the previous day and 987 from the previous week; the export profit was - 375, up 145 from the previous day and 313 from the previous week [4]. 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price Metrics**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, down 150 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, down 150 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, down 300 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; CFR China was 1,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit Metrics**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 376, down 150 from the previous day and 390 from the previous week; the import profit was 328, down 163 from the previous day and 658 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,150, up 141 from the previous day and 291 from the previous week [4]. 2.3 Downstream Products - **Profit Metrics**: The butadiene rubber production profit was 98, up 33 from the previous day and 194 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 625, up 225 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week; the ABS production profit data was not available; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 930, up 210 from the previous day and 340 from the previous week [4]. 2.4 Spread Metrics - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 26,126, up 3,912 from the previous day and 8,165 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 28,466, up 3,827 from the previous day and 8,030 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,750, up 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 2,750, up 100 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [4]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100, down 100 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the standard - non - standard butadiene spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. 3. Data Source - The data sources for this report are Mysteel and Wind [9]

（文章来源：新华财经） 据大阪交易所（OSE）官网7月20日数据，截至2025年7月20日，交易所指定仓库的橡胶（RSS）库存为 4604吨，较截至7月10日的4770吨减少166吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

化工日报 | 2025-07-30 泰国原料价格回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15010元/吨，较前一日变动-55元/吨。NR主力合约12670元/吨，较前一日变动-140 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15000元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨， 较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1810美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1740美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11800元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年6月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量46.34万吨，环比增加 2.21%，同比增加33.95%，2025年1-6月累计进口数量312.57万吨，累计同比增加26.47%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年上半年，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为138.6万吨，同比降2%。其中， 标胶合计出口80.4万吨，同比降12 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 合成橡胶：短期震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 【行业新闻】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （09合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,835 104,614 | 11,955 150,860 | -120 -46246 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 41,136 | 45,103 | -3967 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 620,306 | 914,961 | -294655 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 65 | 195 | -130 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | （民营） | -30 | -35 | 5 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4 per barrel, suggesting short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips and left - hand side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand side shows a decline in MTO profits, and the market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, facing callback pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the domestic production continues to decline, and the cost - side support is gradually strengthening. The demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [5]. - For rubber, after a significant correction, NR and RU are slightly fluctuating. The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [7]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Although it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector, there is a risk of a significant decline when the sentiment fades [9]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support, with different views from bulls and bears [11][13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, macro - expectations will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July [16]. - For PX, the load remains high, and the downstream PTA maintenance season is over. With low inventory and improved polyester and terminal operations, there is a short - term opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are starting, and the downstream production has recovered but remains at a low level. The port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the valuation may decline in the short term although it is currently strong due to anti - involution sentiment [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.27, or 3.39%, to $69.25; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.36, or 3.35%, to $72.76; INE main crude oil futures rose 4 yuan, or 0.76%, to 531 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 6.87 million barrels, a 17.29% month - on - month decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 2.45 million barrels, an 11.98% month - on - month increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the demand side shows a decline in MTO profits and a continuation of the off - season for traditional demand [3]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1744 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 16 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production continues to decline, the cost - side support is strengthening, the demand for compound fertilizers is slowly recovering, and exports are an important demand increment [5]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: NR and RU slightly fluctuated after a significant correction [7]. - **Supply Concerns**: The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5020 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 172 (- 103) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 124 (+ 4) yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall production rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease; the downstream production rate is 41.9%, and the factory inventory is 35.7 (- 1) tons, while the social inventory is 68.3 (+ 2.6) tons [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period. The supply side shows an increase in production, and the demand side shows an increase in the overall operating rate of three S products [11][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7385 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan weakening [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 80.31%, a 0.05% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.64 tons to 50.29 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 5.98 tons. The downstream average production rate is 38.42%, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7165 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan weakening [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 78.44%, a 1.11% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.48 tons to 58.06 tons, the trader inventory increased by 1.43 tons to 16.66 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.41 tons to 6.72 tons. The downstream average production rate is 48.45%, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6942 yuan, the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 857 dollars, the basis was 122 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+ 18) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese load is 79.9%, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the Asian load is 72.9%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease. There are changes in domestic and overseas device operations, and the PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged [18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, the East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4830 yuan, the basis was - 5 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 6 (+ 4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 18 was 218.9 tons, a 1.7 - ton increase [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was 62 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 25 (+ 3) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side production rate is 68.4%, a 2.2% month - on - month increase. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The port inventory is 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease [21].

Group 1 - The stock price of Hainan Rubber closed at 5.04 yuan on July 29, 2025, down 0.04 yuan or 0.79% from the previous trading day [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.039 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan [1] - Hainan Rubber completed the issuance of its first phase of medium-term notes for 2025, raising a total of 350 million yuan at an interest rate of 2.07% [1] Group 2 - Hainan Rubber's main business includes the planting, processing, and sales of natural rubber, along with involvement in rubber products and trade [1] - The company is a key enterprise in Hainan Province, covering the entire rubber industry chain and engaging in concepts such as the Hainan Free Trade Zone and biodegradable plastics [1] - On July 29, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 15.4142 million yuan, accounting for 0.07% of the circulating market value [1]